elections and referendums

Question 1

Factors evaluating electoral systems

Answer 1

-proportionality & fair result.
-vote value (shouldn’t be wasted).
-promoting participation & turnout.
-strong & accountable govt.
-local links (constituents relationship with representative).
-party choice & representation (encourage lots of parties to participate in elections).
-comprehensibility & transparency.

Question 2

Types of electoral systems

Answer 2

proportional= calculates number of MPs by the actual number of votes they receive
majoritarian= candidate with the highest number of votes in each constituency is elected

Question 3

what system does FPTP work on?

Answer 3

single-member plurality system where electors cast a single vote for an MP in their constituency and party with a simple majority in each constituency(650) wins

Question 4

3 features of FPTP

Answer 4

-strong and accountable govt
-fair representation
-political participation and turnout

Question 5

Strong and accountable govt
yes/no

Answer 5

-yes: Boris Johnson called the 2019 general election under FPTP to secure a stable majority government to prevent issues with Brexit deal due to hung parliament and instead have a clear mandate.
no: no clear majority in 2010, Cameron fell 20 sets short so formed coalition with Lib Dems, led to diluted policies, unclear mandate, lack of accountability

Question 6

Fair representation
yes/no

Answer 6

yes: strong local links as every constituency has their own MP to represent issues and be held to account(letters to MP about HS2, humanitarian issues)
no: disproportionate due to winner’s bonus i.e 2019, tories got 77 more seats than vote, and green party won 2.7% of vote but one MP

Question 7

Participation and turnout
yes/no

Answer 7

yes: not in steady decline, 65.1% in 2010 and 67.3% in 2019, not the main issues
no: disincentives voters of smaller parties to vote as their vote will be wasted

Question 8

FPTP should be replaced

Answer 8

-distorts results in the case of winner’s bonus and landslide results
-wasted votes disincentives voters
-Many MPs are elected without majority support in their constituency

Question 9

Hung parliament definition

Answer 9

No clear winner, no party reaches 326. So they have co-alitions, minority govt, supply and confidence deal or another general election

Question 10

Winners bonus definition

Answer 10

Where the party gains seats despite majority not voting for them, leading to wasted votes.
E.g. 2019, 44% wasted votes.

Question 11

FPTP should not be replaced

Answer 11

-traditionally produced strong, clear govts with a mandate
-strong link between MPs and constituents
-two main parties must have a relatively broad appeal and support i.e abortion, climate change

Question 12

List PR

Answer 12

-Country was divided into regions electing 3-10 MEPs.
-Within each area MEPs elected on basis of their share of the vote.
-Instead of electing per constituency, areas are bigger (26 constituencies).
-Parties rank their candidates and the highest ranked candidates are almost certain to be elected.

D’hondt system works by allocating seats with 1 seat per round. At the start of each round, the total round for each party received at the start of the process was divided by the no. of seats the party has won +1. The party with highest remaining total wins.

Question 13

Where was List PR used?

Answer 13

used in the UK for European elections
-11 regions electing between 3 to 10 MEPs each using the D’Hont system

Question 14

Advantages + disadvantages of List PR

Answer 14

:) Proportionality & fair result: no. of seats won closely reflects the actual vote share of the parties.
E.g. brexit won 39% vote & gained 40% seats.

:) Vote value: less chance of warded votes & more parties can win seats. However since country is divided into regions, 1-5% of vote might not win seats.

:) / :( Promoting participation & turnout: in theory should boost turnout. However turnout for EU elections are historically low.
E.g. 2019 - 36.9%.
But turnout could be higher if used for general.

:( Strong & accountable govt: no party secured overall majority. Less straightforward. Disproportionate power. Coalition.
E.g. 2019 Brexit won by 29/73 seats.

:( Local links: representatives serve hundreds & thousands of constituencies so removes notion of MP serving all constituents.

:( Comprehensibility & transparency: less straightforward.

Question 15

Additional member system (AMS)

Answer 15

-Hybrid between FPTP & List PR.
-Used in Scottish, Welsh parliaments & London assembly.
-1st vote is for constituency MP (like FPTP).
-2nd vote is list of parties for regional election.

E.g. in Scotland, 73 MSPs elected through WM style & 56 by regional proportional list.

Question 16

Advantages & Disadvantages of AMS system

Answer 16

:) Proportionality & fair result: largely proportional result in Lothians region.
E.g. Conservatives won 25% seats & 4/16 total vote share.

:) Vote value: less chance of votes wasted for small parties.
E.g. Scottish Green Party gained 2 seats thanks to regional list MPs.

:( Promoting participation & turnout: no evidence that AMS boosts turnout.
E.g. Welsh turnout in 2019 general was 67% but 2016 AMS devolved assembly election was 45%.

:( Strong & accountable govt: almost inevitably produces minority govt.
E.g. Only once in 2011, SNP had majority.

:) Local links: offers local link not present with List PR. However, also creates potential to create a 2-tier system of elected represented & those elected at the top up regional list who lack direct mandate.

:( / :) Comprehensibility & transparency: more complicated than FPTP & uses 2 ballot papers. However relatively straightforward to count & calculate and there’s not multiple rounds.

Question 17

Single transferrable vote (STV)

Answer 17

-Used for EU elections in NI & Scottish local council elections.
-On basis of multi member constituencies where voters rank choices in order of preference.
-Quota worked out on no. of seats + total no. of votes cast.
-Candidate who has more 1st preference votes is elected & then candidates with fewest votes are elected and their votes are transferred to 2nd preference.

Question 18

Advantages & Disadvantages of STV

Answer 18

:) Proportionality & fair result: accurately reflect overall share of votes. Preferred by Electoral reform society (ERS) as voters don’t have to worry and eliminates tactical voting.

:) Vote value: reduces potential for wasted votes. Even voting for minor parties can be effective on overall outcome as 1st preference votes r redistributed using voters’ 2nd preference votes.

:) / :( Turnout in NI 2019 for EU elections at 45% was higher than the rest of the UK but NI typically have high turnout rates.

:( Strong & accountable govt: almost inevitably produces coalition or multiparty govt. Supporters argue that it’s a small price to pay for ‘fairer votes’.

:) Local links: all elected members represent a geographical area & people can approach range of representatives with concerns.

:( Comprehensibility & transparency: shortcoming of STV. Hard to understand and time consuming to calculate.
E.g. Republic of Ireland took 2 full days before announcing results.

Question 19

Alternative vote (AV)

Answer 19

-Used for election of chairs to parliamentary select committee.
-Ranking of candidates.
-Majoritarian system.
-If 50% is not gained, then last candidate with lowest votes is eliminated & their 2nd preference votes are redistributed.
-2011 AV referendum.

Question 20

Advantages & Disadvantages of AV

Answer 20

( Proportionality & fair result: not proportional. 2017 study predicted it would have a less proportionate result than FPTP. & Lib Dem’s & nationalist parties would end up with fewer MPs.
However, it requires at least 50%.

:) Vote value: no disincentive to vote for minor party or independent candidate. Votes are redistributed.

:( Promoting participation & turnout: theoretically would encourage however no country uses it.

:) Strong & accountable govt: AV is the system most likely to produce single party govt & gains 50%.

:) Local links: retains single member constituencies with 1 MP representing their constituents.

:) Comprehensibility & transparency: easy to understand with 1 MP per constituency.

Question 21

Factors that affect voting behaviours

Answer 21

Primacy(long term issues)
-voter profile(characteristics)
-own views on policies they feel strong about
Recency(short term issues)
-party leader personality
-manifesto policies
-media presence
valence(issues that are uniformly liked i.e healthcare or disliked i.e corruption

Question 22

Age as the new class?

Answer 22

Older votes are more conservative(60-69 are 70% more likely)
Younger(18-24) voters are 56% more likely labour.

Question 23

partisan de alignment

Answer 23

-fewer people feel that parties are for ‘people like them’
-‘red wall collapse’ in 2019 when Labour lost approximately 20% of its 2017 general election support

Question 24

rise of identity politics

Answer 24

-based around valence issues around women, ethnic groups, gay ppl, religious groups
-psychological long term attachment to a party
-Brexit referendum based around multiculturalism, immigration etc

Question 25

Voter ID argument

Answer 25

-Public awareness and campaign launched by the Electoral commission in Jan 2023, and ran through to local elections in may 2023
FOR:
-safe and secure elections
AGAINST:
-14,000 people turned away due to lack of ID in May 2023
-disabled people, younger voters, unemployed, and ethnic minorities find it harder to show accepted ID said the commission
-govt allocated 4.75 mil funding to all local authorities w local elections in may 2023 to support communications about ID

Question 26

Consensus politics

Answer 26

Little difference between 2 main parties.
Began during WW2 when conservatives & Labour had a coalition.

Question 27

1979 election:
primacy, recency and valence issues

Answer 27

PRIMACY:
-most swing constituencies were in the south(older) and red wall remained in the north
-conservatives gained some support in working class
RECENCY:
-winter of discontent(unemployment, recession, strikes, high inflation)
-thatcher’s media presence attracted support due to first female PM(‘Labour isn’t working’)
-‘right to buy scheme’ and other pledges in Tory manifesto appealed to middle/upper class voters
VALENCE
-economic competence

Question 28

context of 1979 election

Answer 28

-tories advocated for end of post war consensus(45-79, most parties agreed on fundamental issues like trade unions, healthcare) and emphasised nationalism(privatisation and control over public expenditure)
-callaghan lost his majority of seats in first day of govt, relied on liberal party then SNP
-rise in unemployment, 1.5 million by 1976
‘winter of discontent’= public and private sector strikes after labour refused to increase pay in attempt to solve inflation. gravediggers strikes left ‘the dead unburied’ , Callaghan slammed with the sun’s headline ‘Crisis? What crisis?’ after returning from Guadeloupe conference while Thatcher acknowledged severity in a political broadcast a week later

Question 29

Key policies and manifesto in 1979 election

Answer 29

-‘The Labour way is the better way’ advocated for curb on inflation and prices, improve industrial relations, lower unemployment and defeat world poverty (vague)
-Callaghan had personal popularity ‘sunny Jim’
-The Conservative Manifesto pledged to control inflation, limit the power of trade unions, support of families with the ‘right to buy’ council house scheme, strengthen defences
-focused on gaining support from non-traditional tory voters with campaigns in labour cities like Cardiff

Question 30

Media and role of individual in the 1979 election

Answer 30

-Callaghan depicted as out of touch with the Sun’s headline: ‘Crisis? What crisis?
-least divisive and friendly demeanour
-most experienced
-Thatcher provided media with many photo opportunities of her drinking tea in a factory or with a shopping basket
-saatchi&saatchi Labour isn’t working poster was said to be a main factor in conservative winning the election(highlighted issue of unemployment)
-Former Labour PM Harold Wilson stated his wife will vote conservatives

Question 31

results of 1979 election

Answer 31

Conservatives won with a safe majority with 339 seats BUT only 43.9% of votes.
Highest swing to conservatives since 1945(5.2%) BUT disenfranchisement of southern voters due to ‘winner’s bonus’

Question 32

1983 primacy, recency, valence issues

Answer 32

Primacy:
-older voters vote conservatives.
-Labour got 2/116 seats in London
Recency:
-Falkland war!!
-division of Labour Party into the SDP.
-media supported conservatives.
-Labour manifesto.
Valance:
-economy (inflation decreasing)
Conservatives are more credible when dealing with economic issues.
-defence - Thatcher helped greatly in Falkland law.

Question 33

1983 election context

Answer 33

-Foot was elected leader after Callaghan and his intention to move the party left led to resignation of 4 major Labour MPs(Jenkins, Owen, Rodgers and Williams) and them creating the SDP and and ‘The Alliance’ with the lib party(topped opinion polls until Falklands defeat)
so Labour MPs lost their seats
-Thatcher labelled ‘the iron lady’ after Falklands victory against Argentina in 1982
-unemployment was over 3 million by 1983
-left leaning Guardian said Thatcher had ‘broken the mould of recession-stricken Western politics’

Question 34

Key policies & manifesto in the 1983 election

Answer 34

-Labour’s manifesto ‘the new hope for Britain’ was branded too left wing and ‘the longest suicide note in history’ by Kaufmann who was the shadow environment minister(disagreement within the party)
-mentions of nuclear disarmament and abolition of the HOL
-Blair said he won his seat in spite of our programme not because of it.
-Conservatives’ ‘Forward- the challenge of our times’ was more radical with policies like fair and secret ballots for union strikes, privatisation to include BT, airways
-Thatcher toured in her ‘superbus’ and flew in by helicopter to pose in front of Union Jack at British Hovercraft crop to evoke falklands victory

Question 35

Role of the media and individuals in the 1983 election

Answer 35

-‘Maggie cult’ with right wing press i.e the Sun ran the headline: ‘ Do you really want this old man to run Britain?’
-ITV documentary called ‘Woman at number 10’
-invitation only rallies
-evening news bulletin would see her driving a truck or operating a computer system
-Labour accounted for 22% of media circulation
-Foot would deliver two hour speeches to the party faithful

Question 36

How did it affect policy making?

Answer 36

-Tories pushed through with further privatisation and taking down miner’s unions(rise in unemployment rising)
-Labour made a centrist return with Blair

Question 37

results of 1983 election?

Answer 37

Conservatives won with 397 seats/ 61%
-FPTP penalised 3rd parties (SDP) and gave tories 25% more votes

Question 38

Primacy, recency and valence issues in 1997 election

Answer 38

primacy:
-new labour appealed to middle class
-Conservatives still remained dominant with over 65s but labour had majority in every other age group!!
-region, gender and class played much less of a role
recency:
-most mainstream media supported New Labour
-exhausted govt after 18 years
-New labour had young leaders, dynamic manifesto, accepted trade union reforms made under Thatcher and the party viewed the union link as more of a liability, ‘relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes’ -Peter Mandelson(election campaign director for election)
valence:
-recession: Black Wednesday
-constitutional reform i.e devolution, HRA1999

Question 39

context of 1997 election

Answer 39

-ended 18 years of conservatives
-‘New Labour’ moved away from socialist ideologies, unilateral nuclear disarmament and wholesale renationalisation and towards free- market liberalism(individual freedom and minimal govt intervention)
-Britain crashed out of European exchange rate mechanism(ERM) and pound devalued below limit so UK was forced out(Black Wednesday) so economic competent image ruined
-Public opted for change amid Tory scandals and failed ‘back to basics campaign’ like Steven Norris’ adultery and allegations of bribery

Question 40

Key policies and campaign techniques in the 1997 election

Answer 40

‘New Labour; emphasised on personal responsibility, fighting petty crime and ECHR into UK law
-had its own theme tune
-Deputy John prescott was from a working class background, failed 11+ and worked on a ship
-‘you can only be sure with conservatives’= privatising i.e london underground, less reform(devolution) and tackle benefit fraud
-Tory campaign focused on defaming labour: ‘New Labour, New danger’, demon eyes

Question 41

Labour policies & manifesto 1997

Answer 41

Recent modernisation - New Labour “not outdated ideology”.
1. Welfare.
2. Law and order (tough on crime).
3. Reform & rights (reform lords).
4. Education (middle way - maximise progress).
5. Healthcare: cut waiting lists.
6. Economist: more balanced and ditching image of ‘tax and spend’ i.e national min wage

Ditched clause 4 which committed Labour to ‘collective ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange’ and ‘to secure for the workers.. the full fruits of their industry’ which was too leftist and affiliated too much with trade unions.

Question 42

Conservative policies & manifesto 1997

Answer 42

“You can only be sure with the conservatives” continuity & scrutiny.
1. Education (encourage more academic selection at secondary level).
2. Privatisation = extend to royal mail
3. Reform (no major changes).
4. Law and order = more cctvs
5. Economy reduce income tax to 20%.
6. Welfare = crack down on benefit fraud

Question 43

Role of the media and individuals in the 1997 election

Answer 43

-The sun switched allegiances in 1997: Murdoch and Blair alliance, introduced Blair at Aus News corporation 1995
-Blair was charismatic, young and never in govt before
-Labour’s popular upbeat tune, “Things can only get better”
-confident: ‘I lead my party he follows his’
-pro tory news i.e daily mail were quiet in support
-Major called ministers bastards
-mocked in cartoons for being uncharismatic and grey
-Tory campaign attacked Blair with demon eyes poster “New Labour, new danger.” (64% general public disapproved.)

Question 44

Results of 1997 election

Answer 44

-Labour won 43.2% of vote = constitutional changes and min wage BUT alienating party with Iraq attacks
-Tory took a more ‘one nation’ approach an opposition to devolution + min wage dropped, gay rights and environment advocated for

Question 45

Primacy, recency, valence issues for 2019 election

Answer 45

primacy:
-red wall collapsed(labour supporting constituencies went tory)
-big cities remained labour loyal
-for every 10 years older person was, 9 points more chance they will vote tory and 8 points less labour(YouGov)
-class de alignment meant working class x labour
recency:
-Brexit: remain/leave constituencies meant tory lost some traditional seats i.e Winchester
-media supported Johnson
-social media engaged youth
valence:
-BREXIT

Question 46

context of 2019 election

Answer 46

-May was faced with a vote of no confidence and her Brexit deal was declined
-Johnson called a snap election under the Early parliamentary General election Act to end minority govt and ‘Get Brexit Done’
Brexit was the main focus issue led election.
Labours “red wall” broke down into conservatives.

Question 47

Key policies & campaigns in the 2019 election

Answer 47

-Johsnon played on the electorate’s frustration with Brexit: ‘Get brexit done, unleash Britain’s potential
-other pledges like no rise in income tax, no selling houses to pay for adult social cate overshadowed
-Labour Brexit policy was nuanced, proposed a second referendum: ‘The final say on Brexit
-minimum wage rise to 10 pounds an hour and reduce nationalisation
-Lib Dem leader Jo swinson made a bid for the remain vote with: stop Brexit, build a better future

Question 48

Role of media and individuals in 2019 election

Answer 48

-Johnson had a populist campaign style with a clear message, supported by The Sun
-Corbyn perceived as ‘metropolitan’ and too left wing, lost leave labour supporters
-Swinson appealed to hard remainers but idea of second referendum did not go down well
-more social media engagement with Corbyn content than Johnson
-Conservative advert that 3.5 million saw on YT on day of release.
-Labour outspent the Tory’s (1.4million to 900,000).

Question 49

2019 election - party policies & manifestos

Answer 49

-Johnson “Get Brexit done” overshadowed other pledges including 50,000 new nurses & no rise in income tax.
-promise that nobody would have to sell their house for adult social care amid ‘dementia tax’ allegations

-Labours Brexit policy was nuanced and unclear as they wanted to release new referendum “Final say on Brexit”.
-Rise in minimum wage to 10 pound per hr
-4.3% annual increase in health spending
-Free university

-Lib Dems wanted to stop brexit alongside 35 hrs free childcare from 9 months, and 10 billl to schools by 2024/5

Question 50

Result of 2019 election

Answer 50

Conservatives won with 365 seats
-proportional flaws with FPTP but reaffirmed ability to deliver strong govt
-outcome gave green light for Brexit deal
-had to improvise policies during COVID i.e eat out to help out

Question 51

Difference between general election and referendum

Answer 51

-election is to put a govt in place, a referendum is about a single constitutional issue
-general election occurs within certain timeframe whereas referendums are irregular
-general elections are legally binding
-referendums are direct democracy

Question 52

What is a referendum?

Answer 52

a vote on a single constitutional issue i.e devolution/sovereignty put to a public ballot
-first nationwide usage in 1975 to decide whether UK should stay in EEC
-more usage modern day = shift to popular sovereignty rather than parliamentary
-‘initiative’ = brought about by citizens

Question 53

Referendum case studies

Question 54

EU referendum 2016

Answer 54

-rise in UKIP support and divide within conservative party led to Cameron initiating the EU ref
-72% turnout = 52% leave and 48% remain
-Scotland most remain out of all regions
-Immigration + economy were key factors in decisions(affected by age)
-Census data showed that as the % of younger age classes in a voting area increased, the proportion of leave voted decreased

Question 55

AV referendum 2011

Answer 55

-Vote on changing FPTP to AV
-direct result of 2010 coalition and lib dem pressure
-42% turnout = 68% no, 32% yes
-some believe it was called because tories knew it would be a loss

Question 56

Scottish Independence ref 2014

Answer 56

-as support for SNP grew, enabling it to form a majority administration by 2011, there became a scope to call a referendum on independence
-84.6% turnout = 44.7% yes, 55.3% no
-16 to 17 year olds were permitted to vote
-result did not settle issue but SNP gained surge of popularity

Question 57

Advantages of referendums

Answer 57

-democratic renewal = electorate can engage in political debate and decision-making, turnout sometimes higher than gen elections i.e 81% for Good Friday poll and 84% for Scottish independence(politically literate)
-provide strong mandate for controversial topics which is needed in minority/coalition govts = electorate can absorb divisions within parties and fine tune policy
-Can combat voter apathy and restore faith = gives public decision making powers over the issues that affect them most and offer direct link between policy making and national will

Question 58

Disadvantages of referendums

Answer 58

-trivialise highly complex issues by oversimplifying them to yes/no = EU ref ignored details of how Brexit would be carried out and do not plan for change of public mood i.e demand for second vote/ SNP demanding second vote for Scottish independence
-erode parliamentary sovereignty = weakens representative democracy, public easily swayed by media/ not well informed
-no resolution to highly divisive issues(blunt instrument) = despite clear majority no, Scottish independence movement thrives, press dubbed it a ‘neverendum’, aggravate deep factionalism within govt leading to instability

Question 59

What changes could be made to referendums to combat drawbacks?

Answer 59

-compulsary voting
-lowering voting age
-stipulating minimum turnout/majority margin before vote takes place
-employ neutral 3rd party to disseminate public info on both sides