Democratic Transitions and Revolutions Flashcards
Individual actors in agency based theory
Individuals/groups important for transition outcomes
- Authoritarian government
○ Hardliners: use force to defend system
○ Softliners: to stay in power must adopt reforms
- Opposition movement
○ Radical: reject compromise with leaders in power
Moderate: willing to accept negotiation with incumbents
When are democratic transitions more likely to succeed
According to theory, softliners in government, moderate opposition -> negotiations
What is O’Donnell/Schmitter agency based theory?
- If no split of hardliners and softliners in authoritarian regime, no democracy
• If regime is united
○ Perpetuation of power
○ Armed revolutionary struggle
§ Eg CUBA -> dictator off, new regime rises
• If regime has division -> democratic transition BUT risk of coup
○ Beginning stages: soft-liners have upperhand /// MUST have prominent military officers with softliners -> reduces chances of coup
As transition goes: softliners/opposition have shared interest agaianst hardliners -> pact b/w softliners&moderate opposition = more liberalization
What is a country that has had a successful agency based theory?
Poland
How did Poland become democratic?
Early 1980s
- Solidarity emerges with labor unions
- Hardliners have upperhand -> martial law/mass arrests with support of USSR
Mid 1980s
- Gorbachev in USSR = softliner
- Softliners (Solidarity) in Polish government -> negotiations -> solidarity legalized & multi-party elections
Solidarity takes majority, THUS transition to democracy
What is a country that had a failed transition to democracy?
Egypt
How did Egypt fail to become democratic?
- The Arab Spring (2011)
• Revolutions against military and dictator
• Government causes violent repression -> opposition radicalizes
• Military leader forced to resign - 2012
• Morsi (leader of opposition) elected President
• Power struggle between strong military leader and morsi
• Morsi rules authoritarianly -> protests against Morsi - 2013
• Military coup against Morsi -> Morsi/leaders arrested //// supporteres killed
• Coup leader elected president
What is something common with all revolutiosn?
Want to drastically transform country structurally
What are the different types of revolutions?
- Social revolutions
Political revolutioin
What is a social revolution?
Revolution that transforms the social structure
What’s an example of social revolutions
French revolution Social class structure
What is a political revolution?
Change in political institutions
Whats an example of a political revolution?
Revolutions in eastern europe (poland)
Communist -> multiparty
What are the theories of Why revolutions happen?
- Relative deprivation
- Political opportunity structure
- Cultural framing/explanations
- Rational choice theories
What is relative deprivation?
- One group feels less than others in society
- Deprivation -> greiviences and find others who share same grievances -> protests/revolution