Democratic Transitions and Revolutions

Question 1

Individual actors in agency based theory

Answer 1

Individuals/groups important for transition outcomes
- Authoritarian government
○ Hardliners: use force to defend system
○ Softliners: to stay in power must adopt reforms
- Opposition movement
○ Radical: reject compromise with leaders in power
Moderate: willing to accept negotiation with incumbents

Question 2

When are democratic transitions more likely to succeed

Answer 2

According to theory, softliners in government, moderate opposition -> negotiations

Question 3

What is O’Donnell/Schmitter agency based theory?

Answer 3

• If no split of hardliners and softliners in authoritarian regime, no democracy
  • If regime is united
  ○ Perpetuation of power
  ○ Armed revolutionary struggle
  § Eg CUBA -> dictator off, new regime rises
  • If regime has division -> democratic transition BUT risk of coup
  ○ Beginning stages: soft-liners have upperhand /// MUST have prominent military officers with softliners -> reduces chances of coup
  As transition goes: softliners/opposition have shared interest agaianst hardliners -> pact b/w softliners&moderate opposition = more liberalization

Question 4

What is a country that has had a successful agency based theory?

Answer 4

Poland

Question 5

How did Poland become democratic?

Answer 5

Early 1980s
- Solidarity emerges with labor unions
- Hardliners have upperhand -> martial law/mass arrests with support of USSR
Mid 1980s
- Gorbachev in USSR = softliner
- Softliners (Solidarity) in Polish government -> negotiations -> solidarity legalized & multi-party elections
Solidarity takes majority, THUS transition to democracy

Question 6

What is a country that had a failed transition to democracy?

Answer 6

Egypt

Question 7

How did Egypt fail to become democratic?

Answer 7

• The Arab Spring (2011)
  • Revolutions against military and dictator
  • Government causes violent repression -> opposition radicalizes
  • Military leader forced to resign
• 2012
  • Morsi (leader of opposition) elected President
  • Power struggle between strong military leader and morsi
  • Morsi rules authoritarianly -> protests against Morsi
• 2013
  • Military coup against Morsi -> Morsi/leaders arrested //// supporteres killed
  • Coup leader elected president

Question 8

What is something common with all revolutiosn?

Answer 8

Want to drastically transform country structurally

Question 9

What are the different types of revolutions?

Answer 9

• Social revolutions

Political revolutioin

Question 10

What is a social revolution?

Answer 10

Revolution that transforms the social structure

Question 11

What’s an example of social revolutions

Answer 11

French revolution
Social class structure

Question 12

What is a political revolution?

Answer 12

Change in political institutions

Question 13

Whats an example of a political revolution?

Answer 13

Revolutions in eastern europe (poland)

Communist -> multiparty

Question 14

What are the theories of Why revolutions happen?

Answer 14

1. Relative deprivation
2. Political opportunity structure
3. Cultural framing/explanations
4. Rational choice theories

Question 15

What is relative deprivation?

Answer 15

• One group feels less than others in society

- Deprivation -> greiviences and find others who share same grievances -> protests/revolution

Question 16

What are examples of relative deprivation?

Answer 16

• Third estate in French Revolution

- Workers in Russian Bolshevik Revolution

Question 17

What is political opportunity structure?

Answer 17

Political opportunites -> opportunites for a revolution to start
	- Weak state (lack of state capacity)
	- Access to resoucess 
		○ Eg. Weapons/meeting places
	- Patterns of mobilization
Eg. Social networks/media access

Question 18

What is cultural/framing explanations?

Answer 18

Importance of ideas/beliefs

Revolutions are an idea that can become reality

Question 19

What is an example of cultural/framing explanations?

Answer 19

Bolshevik revolution

Framing = liberate working class

Question 20

What are rational choice theories?

Answer 20

Focus on conditions where individuals engage in collective action

Question 21

What is collective action?

Answer 21

• Action individuals/groups take to pursue common goals

Question 22

What do rational individuals believe

Answer 22

Individuals are rational

Question 23

Collective action problem

Answer 23

• Individuals have common goals BUT organizing as group is hard
• individual interest = free riding
  If majority free rides, action doesn’t happen

Question 24

Why do people join revolution?

Answer 24

Conditions alter rational calculation -> bring down costs for individual