decision trees Flashcards
what is a decision tree
method of evaluating alternative outcomes of any decision
how do you calculate the monetary values of a decision tree?
you calculate both scenarios like so:
(success x profit or loss) + (failure x profit/loss)
once calculated, the scenario with the higher profit is the right option
3 advantages of decision trees
- Allow managers to set out problems in a clear and logical manner
- All potential options can be seen at the same time
- uses numerical values so more likely to be accurate
3 disadvantages of decision trees
- other factors to consider which cannot be shown through numerical value
- by the time the decision is made, the information would be out of date
- process can be time consuming
Critical path analysis
a process that helps determine a project schedule
how do you calculate the earliest start time?
the first node is 0
then, you add on the longest task to the node, and keep this going until you reach the end
how do you calculate the latest finishing time?
LFT - time taken to complete previous task
identifying the critical path
the tasks which have a float of 0 and can’t be delayed
total float
the amount of time a task can be delayed without affecting the whole project
float calculation
LFT - EST - duration of task
free float
The time by which a task can be delayed without affecting the following task
3 limitations of critical path analysis
- info to estimate times may be incorrect
- unforeseen events can occur
- with large projects, the analysis can become complex