Decision Making - Week 10 Flashcards
deductive reasoning
the ability to draw specific conclusions from general principles. relies on validity and truth
inductive reasoning
the ability to draw probable general conclusions from specific examples. relies on evaluating the quality of evidence
atmospheric effect
using words like ALL, SOME, or NONE are more likely to lead to biased conclusions
belief bias
the true conclusion increases the likelihood that the syllogistic structure will be perceived as valid
confirmation bias
making a mistake that appears to be true based on the given information
structural similarity
a concrete task (with scaffolding) has a better transfer effect
deontic and indicative conditionals
there is an increased performance in tasks if it is found to be meaningful to the individual
expected value theory
formalization of the expected outcome. value and probability are considered here.
satisficers
those who select the first option available that satisfies all necessary criteria
maximisers
those who will be more exhaustive in their search amongst options that fit the current criteria
availability heuristic
easier remembered examples are to be judged more probable than harder to remember examples
representative heuristic
stereotypes can be used to mislead results and fail to take into account the base rate information
conjunctive fallacy
incorrect calculation that the combination of two events can be more likely than either event occurring alone
anchoring and adjustment
the idea that we use available numerical information as estimate starting points without compensation
risk aversion strategy
selecting the option that has the greatest profit