Darren McCarty Flashcards
In 2023 what was the:
-Total Sheep number
-Ewe number
-Other sheep number
What was the change per head?
What was the change %?
-Total Sheep number= 3,722,754
-Ewe number= 2562378
-Other sheep number= 1,077,641
What was the change per head?
-Total Sheep number= -287,817
-Ewe number= -99,637
-Other sheep number= -185,113
-Total Sheep number= -7.2%
-Ewe number= -3.7%
-Other sheep number= -14.7%
List the top 5 counties with the most sheep in Ireland:
1- Donegal 363,632
2- Mayo 325,041
3- Galway 273,822
4- Kerry 246,920
What happened with the hogget throughout number in 2023?
What happened to the rams and ewe kill?
Hogget throughput fell sharply after record levels in 2023
Ewe and ram kill fell sharply
How many fewer sheep slaughtered in 2025 already?
What’s the average price /kg in:
2025
2024
5 year average?
Already 90,000 fewer sheep slaughtered in 2025
2025- €8.77/kg
2024- €7.75/kg
5 year average-€6.61/kg
What’s the forecast for sheep total costs of this year?
Feed conc
Total costs
Pasture and forage
Other overheads
Electricity and Fuel
Other Direct costs
2% decrease in sheep total costs
Feed conc- 7%-
Total costs- 2%-
Pasture and forage- 9%-
Other overheads- 1%+
Electricity and Fuel- no change
Other Direct costs- 1% increase
What are the increasing markins for 2025 forecast?
-Output value
-Input spend
-Gross margin
-Net margin
-Output value: 7%+
-Input spend: 5%-
-Gross margin: 16%+ €967/ha
-Net margin: 54%+ €378/ha
Increasing margins 2025 forecast: how much per ha?
€378/ha
List the religious festivals: (3)
-Ramadan
-Eid-al-Adha
-Easter sunday
2024
Irish sheep meat export value:
Irish Sheep meat export volume:
€400 million(-6%)
56,000 tonnes (-23%)
Irish sheepmeat exports: what remains our primary focus?
Where is there a further concentration in trade with the UK?
Where is international trade dominated by?
EU primary focus: €303 million: -4% yoy
Further conc in trade with the UK: €65 million: -3% yoy
International market dominated by Switzerland €31 million : -30% yoy
Irish Sheep meat export performance :
-UK
-Sweden
-Belgium
-Germany
-Switzerland
-France
-Italy
-UK: €65 million -2%
-Sweden: €30 million -17%
-Belgium: €26 million +5%
-Germany: €69 million +1%
-Switzerland: €25 million -14%
-France: €129 million -3%
-Italy: €16 million +3%
NI production trends- sheep census:
-Total ewes 2024
-Other sheep total 2024
-Lambs under 1 year old
-Total sheep
-Total ewes 2024= 930,447
-Other sheep total 2024= 45,572
-Lambs under 1 year old= 993,004
-Total sheep= 1,969,023
Number of sheep on farms by flock size: NI production trends :
-Under 100
-100-499
-500 and over
-Under 100: 11%
-100-499: 50%
-500 and over : 39%
More sheep exported than processed in NI
-NI sheep slaughtering’s 2024 and change on 2023
Hoggets and lambs
Ewes and rams
Total sheep
Hoggets and lambs: -9%
Ewes and rams: -5%
Total sheep: -9%
Whats production like in all main sheep nations?
Why has this been accelerated?
Any recovery ?
Production down
Accelerated in some by bluetongue virus
Little prospects of any recovery
What flock is at the lowest level?
Production wat forecast to fall by ?% in 2024?
Belgian flock at lowest level
2%
Sheep slaughter for EU 2023/2022 up to dec: EU
Increased or decreased by??
-6.9%
How many fewer sheep in 5 years?
What % fall in the last 5 years?
5 million
8.7% fall in numbers in last five years
What is a massave worry ?
Falling consumption
Consumption was falling faster than production.
Availability and price contributing to decline
EU Balance on sheep and goat meat self sufficiency 2024 forecast
89%
What is EU sheep meat markets focusing on supporting?
domestic
producers in
many
countries, e.g.
France
Imports of sheepmeat from New Zealand
reached an all time low in …
2021
NZ tariff-free quota split
228,254t
EU imported 52,077t from 114,127t quota
UK imported 29,103t from 114,127t quota
Lower volumes of New
Zealand sheepmeat allowed
WHO? make real inroads in
recent years in growing
export volumes to Germany,
Belgium, Netherlands,
Switzerland and
Scandinavian countries.
Growth in higher-value
markets has :
Ireland
reduced reliance
on French and UK markets
and increased overall export
values.
UK sheep production forecasts
5.1% fall in Dec 2023 sheep census
Mortality hit production hard in 2024
Export volumes were boosted in
2019 by Brexit concerns
Lower imports from New Zealand over
the last decade
Consumption pressures easing?
Meat consumption per capata sheep %
What % pop of UK are muslim hankey heads
5%
6.5%
UK is a key
competitor for:
Irish sheep meat in
key European
markets
Exports to Ireland
mainly for further
processing
UK sheepmeat import trends:
Why is UK important?
- UK is an
important
market for Irish
mutton exports - Free trade
agreement
with Australia a
worry
Australia and UK Free Trade
Agreement sheepmeat
– When did this happen?
Australia and UK Free Trade
Agreement sheepmeat
– 31 May 2023
AUS and UK Free trade
year 1
year 10
quanitiy
year 1- 14,726.03
year 10- 75,000
The global trade of
sheepmeat is
dominated by a few
major players. Strange
as it may seem, Ireland
is the ?? largest
sheepmeat exporter
worldwide and is the
largest net exporter in
the EU
Global sheep trade has increased by ??% since 1990 – varied from
??? tonnes in recent years
Ireland
30
1.4m to 1.5m
Currently over ???sheep in the world
1.2bn
Highest sheep pop in a country?
China 14%
Sheep meat is a ??? protein in many major markets
niche protein
Consumer preference varies hugely between markets:
-EU,
-UK,
-China.
-loins in the EU,
-lamb legs and mutton in UK,
-lower value cuts (hotpots) in China.
Where will future growth mainly be in sheep meat ?
Asia and north Africa
Where is there a rising Muslim population?
Who is responsible for growth in Asian markets – COVID-19 INFLUENCE?
African consumption will be primarily what sort of cuts?
to bolster EU consumption
China
lower-value cuts but important into
the future , Will be mainly met by increased domestic production
Supply channels in developing markets are still dominated by??
an unorganised supply chain
Who dominate world trade?
AUS and NZ
Whos NO1 in global exports? and what do they account for?
Whats NZ exports like?
-Australia has overtaken New
Zealand as No 1 global
exporter – accounts for 50%
of sheepmeat traded
Australia’s flock rebuilding
initially boosted by price
-New Zealand exports limited
by falling production and loss
of market share in China
Who are dominating imports?
What % of sheep meat go to these markets from AUS and NZ
Whats US imports like ?
China/ Hong kong
More than 50% of New
Zealand sheepmeat
exports and 30% of
Australian sheepmeat
exports destined for the
Chinese market
Chinese imports slowly
recovering after COVID-19
United states imports
grew strongly in 2024
What dictates price?
Price comparison:
-France
-Ireland
-Great Britian
-Aus
-Nz
Market dynamics
-France: 1053c/kg
-Ireland: 854c/kg
-Great Britain: 832c/kg
-Aus: 596c/kg
-Nz: 435c/kg
Why is NZ production flatlining?
Productivity improvements
from a low base have
compensated for falling ewe
numbers – cannot now
compensate any longer!
Whats the stort term flock predictions for AUS?
-Flock
-Lamb Slaughter
-Lamb Production
-Sheep Slaughter
-A significant reduction in farmgate prices in the
last 18 months has hit confidence with numbers
expected to ease back again
-Flock: 76.5 million head
-Lamb Slaughter: 26.1 million head
-Lamb Production: 621,000 tonnes cwt
-Sheep Slaughter : 10.1 million head
AUZ
What will lamb slughter be influenced by in the longterm?
Ewe kill is forcast to ?? on the back of lower confidence
Lamb slaughter will be influenced in
the longer term by a ban on live
exports from 2028
Ewe kill is forecast to increase
on the back of lower confidence
AUZ sheep marlet production:
More favourable production conditions underpinned ?? carcase
weights in recent years. Ewe carcase weights also influenced by what?
higher
continued
switch away from retaining sheep for wool production
When did IRE achieve market access to US?
Ireland achieved market access
in 2021 – still have not exported
product as factory approvals not
agreed
What are challenges for the sector? (6)
Profitability –
return on
labour input
Technology
uptake is
relatively
poor
Lamb
consumption
in Europe
Age profile
heading in
the wrong
direction
65% of
farms have
less than 100
sheep
Attractiveness of dairying
to younger
farmers
What are threats to the sheep sector?
Misleading advertising and campaigns?
Nature / peatland restoration
Greater spotlight on management
of hill / mountain areas
What are opportunities for the sheep sector? (4)
environmental benefits
Irish sheep farming satisfies
numerous goals in the EU Farm
to Fork strategy.
Favourable financial rewards in
the next CAP strategy should
help to sustain sheep numbers
at the required level to
maintain critical mass of
production.
Sheep systems can play a
critical role in managing upland
high nature value farmland.
What are the pillars for the farm to fork policy? (4)
-Food waste prevention
-Sustainable food production
-Sustainable food processing and distribution
-Sustainable food consumption
What is an other opportunity for the sheep sector?
Cost of production
Leaving aside the current escalation in costs Ireland has a lower cost
of production than many other countries in the EU with downward
pressure on numbers likely to continue in these regions.
What are the unknown variables in the sheep market? (4)
War in Ukraine
Extreme weather events
Global health crisis
Availability of skilled labour
What are production factors to consider for 2025? (6)
Higher lamb mortality
Lower confidence
Slaughter of ewe hoggets
Spring lamb declining
Higher drafting of cull ewes
Performance curtailed
What has shaped farming in Ireland?
Policy- CAP Strategic Plan 2023-2027 will continue to shape farming – greater environmental focus
Why are agri schemes important?
Direct payments as
% of family farm income
Sheep= 110%
CAP funding BISS:
Total Pillar 1:
€3,642.50
€5,976.7 million
CAP Funding Pillar II
Top funding area:
Total Pillar 2:
Areas of Natural Constraint (ANC) €1,250 million
€3,861.60 million
What are the top 5 acre approved applicant areas in Ireland?
Whats the no of applicants in Munster?
Whats the total number applicants?
1- Mayo
2- Galway
3- Donegal
4- Cork
5- Kerry
Munster= 3,306
Total= 18,618
How much does the organic farming scheme cost in 2025?
How much more in the budget?
How many more applicants?
What % of land is farmed organically?
€67 million
+€10m in budget 2025
Approx 1,000 more applicants
7.5% of lands farmed organically by
2027 and 10% by 2030
Funding growth
- Achieving 10% of UAA by 2023
under current support programme
would cost in excess of €100m
annually
Organic farming scheme – the sweeteners
Paymenst for drystock in :
year 1-2
year 3-5
year 1-2
300/ha
year 3-5
250/ha
Organic scheme :
Average payment
New participation payment
Minimum stocking rate dropped
Organic capital investment scheme
Average payment
Circa €12,000
Organic capital Investment Scheme
Higher rate of 60% grant
assistance on pre VAT price.
Minimum stocking rate dropped
- Fell from 0.5LU/ha to just 0.1LU/ha
New participation payment
- €2,000 in Yr 1, €1,400 thereafter
Where is there a strong take up of organic scheme?
In the west
OFS – who are the farmers applying?
-Approx 80% male : 20% female
-Average age: 54
-13% young farmers
-Average farm size: 47.5ha
-Bovine 55%
OFS – Where to next?
In Ireland
-5% utilisable agricultural
area (UAA) farmed
organically by 2025
-7.5% UAA by 2027
-10% UAA by 2030
2030 targets for sustainable food production : 4
50% pesticide decrease
50% reduction in nutrient losses
50% reduction in sales of antimicrobials
25% increase in organic farming
On-Farm Capital Investment Scheme
-How much funding in CAP?
-Whats the grand aid like?
-€100m in funding via CAP and
approx. €300m carried forward
-Standard grant aid of 40% to investment
ceiling of €90,000
-Partnerships €160,000 per holding
-Pig and poultry €200,000 per holding
(reports will be higher)
-60% grant aid for young trained farmers
and women farmers
-60% grant aid for organic farmers
-50% for LESS equipment, 40% for mobile
slurry tanker and umbilical pump.
Investment ceiling of €40,000 and €60,000
for partnerships.
-Application process will continue
in rolling tranches – next tranche
closes on 6 December 2024
Sheep Improvement Scheme
-Whats the budget like ?
-Whats the payment /ewe?
-How many applicants?
-Whats is a follow on from?
-Five year scheme with budget of
€20m per annum
-One-year contract with automatic
renewal
-Payment of €12/ewe or €120 per
livestock unit
-Historical reference figure
-Current is higher of average
2014/2015 census ewe numbers or
2017 census ewe number
-19,100 applications submitted
- Follow on from sheep welfare scheme
-Existing measures included and
addition of a breeding programme
requirement to purchase rams
possessing genetic evaluations
How does the sheep improvement scheme work?
Select one Cat A and one Cat B measure
*Hill flocks cannot select both these
measures
**Flocks with less than 150 ewes must
purchase one genotyped ram once,
those with over 150 ewes must purchase
two rams over lifetime of scheme
Sheep welfare scheme
-How much / ewe?
-Whats the funding like?
-How many farmers applied in 2024
-How many actions need to be completed?
-€8/ewe payment
- Funding of €15m allocated in
Budget 2024 - €8/ewe payment in 2024, €13 in 2025
-Cover over 1.8m of the 2.6m national
ewe flock
-17,167 farmers applied in 2024
-Two actions to be completed
Category A – shearing and body
condition scoring
Category B – clostridial vaccination or
mobile plunge dipping
CAP reform influence on land market
Higher payments on more marginal
lands?
– 85% convergence moving funds west
* Higher payments for young trained
farmers
– Up to €170/ha for up to 50ha
* Fivefold increase in Organic Farming
Scheme budget
– Average payment of €12,000/participant
CAP reform influence on land market
Assumptions
Assumptions
CRISS payments €7.8m
Capping of €60,000 not applied
Assumes all Ts and Cs are adhered to
Nitrates Directive - brief overview read
Nitrates Directive introduced in 1991
Implemented in Ireland in 2006
The Directive sets a stocking rate limit of
170kg N/ha everywhere in Europe.
Covers organic nutrients - not to be confused
with chemical fertiliser rates
Countries got a derogation to 250kg N/ha based on production metrics e.g.
cropping type, rainfall, etc.
Now only two countries left in the European Union with a derogation and none
at 250kg N/ha and Northern Ireland at 250kg N/ha
Water Framework Directive sets a target of good or high status waters in EU by
2027
Derogation turmoil in 2022 / 2023
- Member states have to submit a Nitrates Action
Programme every four years (NAP) (whether they have a
derogation or not). - This has to be approved by European Commission (EC)
and then a decision is made on derogation. - At last review EC accepted NAP but decided to cut the
derogation from 250kg to 220kg if water quality did not
improve by 2023 - Resulted in sort of a phoney war over fighting to save
the derogation at 250kg because of the precedent it set. - Ireland lost that battle and now the fight is on to prevent
the loss of derogation outright. - Next NAP and derogation renewal is at end of 2025
Nitrates – what is desired and the complexities
- European Commission say water quality
has to improve in moderate/poor areas
by at least 1mg N/l - Teagasc say weather has the biggest
impact on N leaching and that the south
east is naturally high in Nitrates due to
free draining soils, lower rainfall, more
mineralisation and less denitrification. - All farming activity risks increased N loss
- Farmers on these soils have to balance
farming and not polluting rivers to the
extent that nature cannot cope.
Nitrates – impact of losing the derogation on dairy farms
- 1 cow/acre is the traditional benchmark of productivity
- This is too high under 220kg N/ha and 170kg N/ha
- At 220kg, 100 cow farmer on 100 acres needs to get an
extra 5 acres @ €400/acre = €2k or @€300/acre = €1,500 - At 170kg, 100 cow farmer on 100 acres need to get an extra 35 acres
@ €400/acre = €14k or @€300/acre = €10,500 - Dairy farm businesses with high debt, high labour or high amount of leased
land will struggle to survive without derogation. - All Irish agriculture is affected. Ag biz, dairy co-ops, rural Ireland, IFJ
Reduction in maximum stocking rate when did this occur?
1st Jan 2024
Nitrates doesn’t just affect dairying – e.g. tillage
Catch Crops
If grazing you must:
* 3m margin around the field – natural regeneration or
grass
* 4m margin at watercourse – add 1m of natural
regeneration to 3m buffer
* Need access to a lie-back area
* If you have 7ac of catch crop you need 3ac of lie-back
* Lie-back can be grass or stubble
* Under ACRES cannot graze until 1 January
* If grazing catch crops which were sown for equivalence
under the crop diversification requirements then you
need to plant 50% of the arable area
* Buffer zones will not be included in the area
?? will be made available between
2026 and 2030 specifically to pay for
climate action and nature restoration
projects that are not already funded by
the National Development Plan (NDP)
€3.15bn
