component 1: voting behaviour Flashcards
long term factors affecting voting 1
social class: middle class: AB (22%) e.g. doctor, and C1 (30%) e.g. techer. Working class are C2 (20%) e.g. plumber and DE (26%) e.g. labourer. 1945-1970, social class seen as main factor of voting behavour, working class = labour, middle class = conservative e.g. in 1964-66, 64% of working class voted labour. Voters had limited knowledge of politicl issues so made voting decisions based on structural factors like social clas. Voters also influenced by political socialisation in family, workplace presenting them with a generalised broad image of political parties.
Gender: Traditionally women more likely to vote con due to cons image of social stability and family. This changed in 1980s and 90s. 1997, labour supported by equal number of men and women. 2015 - men more likely to vote con, but overall difference = 2%. In 2017, men more likely to back con (45%-39%). 1979 - cons did 4% better among men.
long term factors affecting voting 2
Age: younger voters = vote labour or small parties, older voters = con. Better turnout among old. Age = major factor in 2016 referndum, 73% of 18-24 voters backed remain, 60% of 65+ voters backed leave. As people get older, have more responsibilities e.g. tax, and few reasons to want to change due to these.
Ethnicity: British BME = vote labour (80% lab-20% con), as they are more likely to be working class and live in urban areas, cons are more hostile to immigration. 1997: labour got 70% of BME vote, con got 18%. 2019: labour had strong lead of 64% compared to 20% among BME, but cons led over white voters 48%:29%.
Region: SOuth except for London is con, labour leads up north but more in urban areas, Scotland was labour but more dominated by SNP, strong labour support in Wales. 1979: all areas swung to cons but largest swing in the south. 1997 - labour gained across all regions, cons wiped out in scotland and wales. 2019: REd wall in north fell, strong labour seats switched to cons in many places, ‘safe’ labour seats became con.
class and partisan dealignment:
- since 1970s, UK has experienced class dealignement, link between social class and voting has weakened. A consequence of this had been a shiftin the policies and ideas of the 2 main parties as they have been forced to seek votes from supporters of other parties. Reasons for it: changing class system e.g. manual workforce has shrunk, embourgeoisement- more middle class people.
- There has also been a related process where people are less attached to a certain party: partisan dealignment, leading to a rise in floating (or swing) voters. This is due to:increaed educaation encouragin voters to question raditional party based loyalties, impact of he media - access to wider sources of info e.g. TV, ideological change - shifts in party policies and beliefs alienated traditional supporters.
short term fators affecting voting behaviour
rational choice and issue voting: issue voting - voters base their decisions on political issues rather than other factors e.g. 2019 was the BREXIT election.
Rational choice: individuals make rational choices to achieve oucomes aligned withown best interests, weigh options and choose what will serve them best.
Valence: this is where voters share a common perfernce so support parties they believe will best deliver on that issue e.g. Britain’ most recent election 2019, people believe d conservatives would get the job done on Brexit, whereas labour wanted another referendum.
Governing competence: election are decided by the performance of the governement. e.g. 1997 election -people lost faith in Major’s gov but had faith in Blair’s new labour, 1979 - ‘winter of discontent’ destroyed callaghens image.
short term factors affecting voting behaviour 2
party leaders and image: aprty leaders and oublic perceptions of them are more important e.g. 1997 Blair’s was considerably popular asset for labour seen as charismatic and a ,an of the people. 2010 - Cameron’s campaign - ‘call me dave’, to appeal to audiences and be likeable. 2019 - leadership was an issue for both JOhnsons andorbyn, neither were entirely popular.
Campaigns: rtaditional view = campaigns do little to change opinionse.g. in 2019 labour used smilar strategies that had been successful in 2017: an extensive manifest with popular policies and social media campaign and lost. Whereas JOhnsons dodged national events was absent from key tv debates and targetted key seats with ‘Get brexit done’.
Turnout: turnout ismore likely to impact labour as poorer, younger people are less likely to vote and usually vote labour, whereas older, richer people are more likely to vote con. Peaks of turnout were after ww2, especiailly 1950 - a turnout of 83%. Turnout can increase if people feel trongly about an issue.
