Clinical decision making

Question 1

Conformity bias

Answer 1

the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions, often leading to errors

Question 2

Sunk cost fallacy

Answer 2

I. Rationally, the only factor affecting future action should be the future costs/benefit ratio

II. BUT, humans do not always act rationally

III. Often, the more we have invested in the past, the more we are prepared to invest in a problem in the future

Question 3

Heuristics

Answer 3

Heuristics: any approach to problem-solving, learning or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals

Question 4

Availability heuristics

Answer 4

Probabilities are estimated on the basis of how easily and/or vividly they can be called to mind

Question 5

Representativeness Heuristics

Answer 5

Subjective probability that a stimulus belongs to a particular class based on how ‘typical’ of that class it appears to be

Question 6

Strategies for improving clinical decision making

Answer 6

I. Recognize that heuristics and biases may be affecting our judgment even though we may not be conscious of them

II. Counteract the effect of top-down information processing by generating alternative theories and looking for evidence to support them rather than just looking for evidence that confirms our preferred theory.

III. Understand and employ statistical principles e.g. Bayes Theorem

IV. Use of Algorithms and decision support systems

Question 7

Kahnemans 2 system for decision making

Answer 7

SYSTEM 1: Hot system, that allows us to make decisions very quickly. It is very reflexive, and allows us to respond to situations urgently.

SYSTEM 2: Much more of a reflective system, which takes a bit longer. It involves more weighing up of probabilities and calculations. This is good for precision, but NOT for fast decision-making