Chapter 11

Question 1

Motivated reasoning

Answer 1

Biased evaluation of evidence, in accordance with one’s prior views and beliefs.

Question 2

Reasoning

Answer 2

A thought process that yields a conclusion from premises.

Question 3

Syllogism

Answer 3

A syllogism consists of two premises and a conclusion. Each of the premises specifies a relationship between two categories. Sometimes a syllogism is invalid but believable and is accepted by a majority of people.

Question 4

Premise

Answer 4

Thoughts, percepts, or assumptions that lead to conclusions.

Question 5

Four Forms of Syllogistic Reasoning

Answer 5

Universal affirmative: All A are B (All cows are animals). Universal negative: No A are B (No tomatoes are animals). Particular affirmative: Some A are B (Some animals are dangerous). Particular negative: Some A are not B(Some animals are not cows). Some means at least one, and possibly all

Question 6

Logicism

Answer 6

The belief that logical reasoning is an essential part of human nature.

Question 7

Practical syllogism

Answer 7

One in which two premises point to a conclusion that calls for an action (I need to understand Psych, and to do that I must understand cognition. Therefore I must study cognition).

Question 8

“Some”

Answer 8

Some means at least one, and possibly all. We usually think of it to mean less than the whole amount, and less than the majority.

Question 9

Mental models

Answer 9

We construct mental models or a mental structure of a situation to which a set of premises refers and then draw conclusions that are consistent with the model.

Question 10

Relational reasoning

Answer 10

Reasoning involving premises that express the relations between items (e.g. A is taller than B). That is a transitive relation.

Question 11

Transitive relation

Answer 11

Expressed by comparative sentences such as “taller than”. “Taller than” is transitive because if A is taller than B and B is taller than C than A is also taller than C. Usually come in pairs, in which one is the opposite of the other.

Question 12

Three-term series problem

Answer 12

Linear syllogisms consisting of two comparative sentences from which a conclusion must be drawn.

Question 13

Iconic

Answer 13

A characteristic of mental models, according to Johnson-Laird’s theory; the reactions between the parts of the model correspond to the relations between the parts of the situation it represents.

Question 14

Emergent consequences

Answer 14

A principle of Johnson-Laird’s theory: you can get more out of a mental model than you put into it.

Question 15

Parsimony

Answer 15

A principle of Johnson-Laird’s theory: people tend to construct the simplest mental model possible.

Question 16

Natural deduction system

Answer 16

A reasoning system made up of propositions and deduction rules that are used to draw conclusions from these propositions.

Question 17

Generative problem (Wason)

Answer 17

Participants are told that the three numbers 2, 4, and 6 conform to a simple relational rule that the experimenter has in mind, and that their task is to discover the rule by generating sequences of three numbers. The experimenter tells them each time whether the rule has been followed.

Question 18

Eliminative strategy

Answer 18

A strategy based on attempting to falsify your hypothesis, in order to eliminate incorrect beliefs.

Question 19

Confirmation bias

Answer 19

The tendency to seek confirmatory evidence for a hypothesis.

Question 20

Selection task (Wason)

Answer 20

A four-card problem based on conditional reasoning. (Choosing which two cards will disprove the rule and show it to be false, aka falsify it and either prove it right or wrong).

Question 21

Conditional reasoning

Answer 21

Reasoning that uses conditional (“if…then”) statements.

Question 22

Truth tables

Answer 22

A way of presenting the various combinations of the constituents of logical statements.

Question 23

Social contract theory

Answer 23

The theory that inference procedures have evolved to deal with social contracts in which people give something up in order to gain something else. We are very good at detecting cheaters of this social contract. We would choose the cards in the selection task that would detect cheaters in that circumstance, regardless of whether it was the logical choice or not.

Question 24

Bias

Answer 24

A predisposition to see a particular type of situation in a particular way. We have a bias that what is beautiful is good…not true… look at political candidates.

Question 25

Law of large numbers

Answer 25

The larger the sample, the closer a statistic will be to the true value.

Question 26

Law of averages

Answer 26

A fallacy based on the assumption that events of one kind are always balanced by events of another kind.

Question 27

Gambler’s fallacy

Answer 27

The mistaken belief that an event that has not occurred on several independent trials is more likely to happen on future trials.

Question 28

Law of small numbers

Answer 28

The mistaken belief that a small sample should be representative of the population from which it is drawn.

Question 29

Representative heuristic

Answer 29

Making inferences on the assumption that small samples resemble one another and the population from which they are drawn.

Question 30

Hot-hand belief

Answer 30

The belief that a player who has just made two or three shots is on a streak and will likely make the next shot.

Question 31

Hot-hand behaviour

Answer 31

A bias that leads the teammates of a player who has just scored a basket to let him take the next shot.

Question 32

Adjustment and anchoring

Answer 32

People’s judgments of magnitude are biased (i.e. adjusted) by the initial value to which they are exposed (i.e. the anchor).

Question 33

Availability

Answer 33

The ease with which something can be brought to mind (R being the third letter in words more often although easier to think of words that start with R). People are much more scared of flying even though flying is much safer than
driving.

Question 34

Peak-end rule

Answer 34

Retrospective judgments of the total painfulness of an event are formed by averaging the pain experienced during the most painful moment of the event and that felt at the end of the event.

Question 35

Duration neglect

Answer 35

The finding that retrospective judgments of the total painfulness of an event are unrelated to the event’s duration.

Question 36

Illusory correlation

Answer 36

The mistaken belief that events go together when in fact they do not.

Question 37

Intuitive concept

Answer 37

A type of concept that is easily acquired and used by almost all adults.

Question 38

Regression to the mean

Answer 38

For purely mathematical reasons, whenever two variables are not perfectly correlated, extreme values on one variable tend to be related to values on the other variable that are closer to (i.e. regressed to) the mean of that variable.

Question 39

Recognition heuristic

Answer 39

When choosing between two objects (according to some criterion), if one is recognized and the other is not, then select the former.

Question 40

Ecological rationality

Answer 40

A heuristic is ecologically rational if it produces useful inferences by exploiting the structure of information in the environment.

Question 41

Less-is-more effect

Answer 41

Sometimes the person who knows less is able to make a better judgment than the person who knows more but is unable to use that knowledge in the situation at hand.

Question 42

Problem space reasoning procedures

Answer 42

1. Clarity of the problem space (being aware of the alternatives). 2. Recognition of the operation of chance (recognizing where chance is at work instead of order. We are more likely to use reason when we know there is chance involved). 3. Cultural prescription (cultures that value statistical reasoning).

Question 43

Tversky & Kahneman

Answer 43

Tversky and Kahneman’s close and intimate
working relationship. Tversky was the eternal
optimist and Kahneman was ever the
pessimist. They made groundbreaking work in
behavioural economics and have become experts
in error. He is studying how to improve decisions
at the margin. He says you should delay intuition
until you have all the right information… premature
intuition can hurt you. Intuition only works in
regular situations, so it doesn’t work for the stock market.
We form global impressions based on intuition
far too quickly (in interviews, etc.) and it is wrong more
often than not.
Optimism drives capitalism… and for those who take
high risks, most fail but a few achieve great success
and that drives us to keep taking risks.