Changing population Flashcards
Define population distribution
The spatial pattern of where people live.
Define population density
The number of people in a given area. This is usually given in people/km2.
How is the global population distributed?
The global population is very unevenly distributed.
What are the reasons that the global population is very unevenly distributed?
This uneven distribution is the result of both physical and human factors.
What should be noted about physical factors?
Physical factors impact each other, and rarely operate in isolation when considering the impact they have on population distribution. For example, climate impacts both soils and vegetation.
What should be noted about human factors?
Human factors are similarly interconnected so often work together. For example, employment opportunities are linked to accessibility.
What should be noted about physical and human factors?
Physical factors affect human factors. For example, climate determines agricultural opportunities.
Why might physical factors be considered the most important factors affect human population distribution?
Physical factors may be considered the most important factors affecting human population distribution, as they often determine where it is actually possible to live.
Why do physical factors no longer determine human population distribution to such a large extent these days?
In the past this was certainly true, but as technology has advanced many of the constraints imposed by physical factors have been overcome. For example, in modern society we can now have water piped to our houses so we do not have to live near a river or well.
What is the present-day global population distribution largely do too?
The present-day global population distribution has largely been determined by the historical effects of physical factors and the inertia that made it ‘too much effort’ to move.
What are the two types of impacts of climate on population distribution?
- Direct, through the temperature and precipitation totals and patterns; for example, population density is very low in deserts as it is too hot and dry
- Indirect, through the impact it has on soils and vegetation; for example, the tropical rainforest is hot and humid which creates very dense vegetation, making human settlement difficult.
What type of climates are more desirable for human habitation?
Temperate climates are more desirable for human habitation.
What is a temperate climate?
Moderate amounts of rainfall and the absence of extreme temperatures create easier living conditions and favour agriculture.
What do areas with extremes of temperature, precipitation or humidity due to settlements?
Areas with extremes of temperature, precipitation or humidity deters settlement.
How do areas with high temperatures deter settlements?
Areas with very high temperatures inhibit agriculture, especially if coupled with lack of precipitation. They can also cause health issues for humans, for example heat stroke and dehydration.
How do areas with low temperatures deter settlements?
Areas with very low temperatures inhibit agriculture, make construction of homes and infrastructure difficult and restrict outdoor activities. For example, Arctic regions suffer from permafrost which makes agriculture difficult.
How do areas with high humidity deter settlements?
Areas with high humidity, for example the Amazon Basin, are unpleasant for many people and humidity is often associated with disease vectors including mosquitoes.
What is an example of how technology has helped humans bypass a restriction posed by climate?
Air conditioning makes it possible to live in areas with high temperatures, and triple glazing and efficient heating systems make living in areas of with very low temperatures possible.
What are all the factors that determine population density?
- Climate
- Relief, altitude and latitude
- Water supply
- Natural resources
- Soils
What problems do steep slopes cause?
- Limit the effective use of agricultural machinery
- Have thin soils, further limiting agriculture
- Inhibit the use of machinery and cause difficulties in the construction of houses and transportation routes
Altitudes above how many metres are not favorable for human habitation?
Altitudes above 5,000 metres are not favourable for human habitation.
Why are altitudes above 5,000 metres not favorable for human habitation?
Because the low oxygen content of the air causes physiological problems, such as altitude sickness, for many people.
What percentage of the global population lives at less than 200 metres above sea level?
Because of the physiological problems that low oxygen content can cause over half of the global population lives at elevations less than 200 metres above sea level.
Why is rising sea levels due to climate change such a concern?
Because over half of the global population lives at elevation less than 200 metres.
Based on the fact that over half of the global population lives at elevations of less than 200 metres, what can we logically assume that the most favourable location for human settlement?
It is therefore logical to assume that the most favourable location for human settlement is low-lying flat areas.
Why are low-lying flat areas not always the most favorable for human settlement?
Low-lying flat areas are ideal for building and farming. However, latitude impacts climate. In low-latitude tropical areas, the climate is often hot and humid, making it less favorable for settlement. Instead, settlements in these regions are more likely to be located on flat plateau areas at higher elevations, where temperatures are cooler
What is unique about La Paz, Bolivia in terms of settlement location?
La Paz is the highest city in the world, located at 3,640 meters above sea level in the Andes. Its high altitude provides cooler temperatures compared to lower tropical areas, and the flat plateau makes construction possible. Without this flat land, La Paz may not have been established at its current location.
Why are higher latitudes less favorable for settlement as elevation increases?
In higher latitudes, an increase in elevation causes a significant drop in temperature, making these areas less favorable for human settlement compared to low-latitude plateaus.
Why is an adequate fresh water supply essential for human settlements?
Fresh water is necessary for domestic use, agriculture, and industrial activities. Settlements often form near reliable water sources such as rivers, lakes, aquifers, or regions with adequate rainfall.
How does the River Nile influence population distribution in Egypt?
The majority of Egypt’s population (approximately 95%) lives along the River Nile or its delta. This region supports population densities exceeding 1,000 people/km² outside of cities due to its reliable water supply and fertile soils.
What is an example of an aquifer that supports human settlement?
The Great Artesian Basin in Australia provides underground water to Queensland, the Northern Territory, New South Wales, and South Australia. This aquifer supports settlements in otherwise arid regions.
How did coal deposits influence population patterns in Western Europe during the 19th and early 20th centuries?
Large coal deposits fueled industrial growth during this period. This led to the development of densely populated conurbations as people moved to industrial areas for employment opportunities
What makes La Rinconada in Peru an example of a settlement influenced by natural resources?
La Rinconada is a gold-mining town located over 5,000 meters above sea level in the Peruvian Alps. Despite being inhospitable (lacking running water), it has a population of 50,000 due to the economic viability of gold mining. However, if gold prices fall too far, it risks becoming a ghost town.
How can scenery influence settlement patterns?
Scenic areas can attract seasonal populations. For example, resort towns often experience a population surge during tourist seasons but may see significant declines during off-seasons.
How do fertile soils impact population density? Provide examples.
Fertile soils enable successful agriculture and support high population densities. For example:
- The Nile Valley and Delta support densities exceeding 1,000 people/km² outside cities due to fertile soils enriched by annual flooding.
- Volcanic soils around Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania support rich coffee and sugar plantations.
Why are volcanic soils important for agriculture? Provide an example.
Volcanic soils are naturally rich in nutrients and highly fertile. Around Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, volcanic soils support coffee and sugar plantations that contribute significantly to local agriculture.
What happens in areas with thin or infertile soils? Can technology help overcome these challenges?
Areas with thin, leached, or infertile soils tend to have much lower population densities because they cannot support large-scale agriculture easily. While modern technology can improve poor soil conditions (e.g., through fertilizers or irrigation), there is no true substitute for naturally deep and fertile soils. This set of flashcards ensures that all key points are covered with detailed examples like the River Nile’s population density figures (exceeding 1,000 people/km²), La Paz’s altitude (3,640 meters), and La Rinconada’s unique challenges (gold mining at over 5,000 meters).
How do human factors influence global population distribution compared to physical factors?
Human factors are responsible for finer details and smaller-scale distribution within larger areas determined by physical factors. While physical factors determine where it’s easier to live, build, and move, human factors determine where population concentrates within these habitable areas.
How do employment opportunities impact population distribution in agricultural societies?
In agricultural societies:
- Population is relatively low and evenly distributed (depending on physical factors)
- People make a living from the land, growing food for themselves with some surplus for trading
- This pattern was seen in Europe until the early to mid-19th century
- Many Less Industrialized Countries (LICs) today, like Sierra Leone, still follow this pattern
How does industrialization affect population distribution?
As technology advances and agriculture becomes mechanized:
- Fewer people are needed on the land
- Growing industries in cities attract people to secondary sector jobs
- Populations grow and concentrate in major urban areas
- This was seen in north-western Europe in the mid-19th century
- Thailand is a modern example of this stage
How does the shift to tertiary industries impact population distribution?
With continued technological advances:
- Fewer people are needed in traditional industries
- There’s a shift to tertiary (service) industries
- Some people remain in cities but move to suburbs
- Others leave cities and move back to rural areas
- Australia is an example of this stage
- Advances in computers and internet facilitate this shift
What is the ‘snowball effect’ in population distribution?
The ‘snowball effect’ or positive feedback cycle in population distribution means:
- Once an area attracts population growth (initially based on a physical advantage)
- It will continue to grow through positive feedback
- This is partly due to humans being social and preferring to live close to each other
- Economic factors work in a circular fashion, reinforcing population concentration
How do coastal areas influence population distribution?
According to UNEP, about half the world’s population lives within 60 km of the coast due to:
- Concentrated communications and transport links
- Fishing opportunities for early settlers
- Export and import opportunities
- Flat coastal plains good for transport and construction
How can government policies impact population distribution?
Government policies can significantly impact population distribution:
- China: Set population limits for Beijing (23 million) and Shanghai (25 million) by 2020
- Former USSR: Established settlements on Siberian Plateau for mining
- UK: New Towns Act (1946) relocated populations to ‘overspill towns’ like Stevenage, Telford, and Milton Keynes
- Tanzania and Brazil: Moved capital cities (Dodoma and Brasília) to decentralize population
How do wars affect population distribution?
Wars cause significant population relocation:
- Example: Syrian conflict (2011-2015)
- Over 4 million people fled Syria
- Additional 7.5 million people internally displaced
- Significant effects on regional population distribution
How does history influence population density?
Duration of settlement impacts population density:
- Areas with long history of settlement tend to be more densely populated
- Exceptions exist, like the ancient Mayan civilization that disappeared into Central American jungles
What is development in the context of geography?
- Development is the process of growth, improvement, changing or becoming more advanced
- It refers to moving forwards, specifically applied to countries
- It’s a broad concept involving overall improvement in quality of life and living standards
- It’s not just about money, but encompasses economic and social progress
What are the two main economic indicators used to measure income in development?
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Total value of goods and services produced within a country in a given period
- Gross National Income (GNI): Total value of goods and services produced within a country, plus income and payments from abroad (e.g. remittances)
How does GNI differ from GDP, and why do many social scientists prefer it?
- GNI accounts for economic transactions with other countries, in addition to income from within the country
- GDP only provides the economic picture within a country
- GNI is preferred because most economies are global, so it makes sense to account for international transactions
What are the three ways GDP and GNI are typically reported?
- Total GDP or GNI for the whole country
- Per capita measurements (total income divided by population)
- Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which accounts for cost of living based on a basket of consumer goods
What does the example of Indonesia reveal about the limitations of GNI as an economic indicator?
- Indonesia ranks 9th globally for GNI (PPP) according to World Bank 2014
- This high ranking fails to account for Indonesia’s high population and income inequality
- Most of the national income is concentrated in the hands of a small proportion of very rich people
What is a significant problem with using GNI and GDP as economic indicators in certain countries?
- They only account for the formal economy, excluding income from the informal economy
- In some countries (e.g., parts of West Africa, South America, India), the informal economy can account for 30-50% of GDP
- This raises questions about the validity of GNI or GDP as indicators in these countries
Why might development be more effectively measured through social indicators rather than economic ones?
- Economic growth does not necessarily equate to quality of life
- Social indicators like education and health can provide a more comprehensive picture of development
- These indicators can better reflect overall improvements in living standards and well-being
What did Hans Rosling’s TED talk demonstrate about economic development?
- It showed the links between two key components of economic development: income in US dollars and lifespan in years
- The video used data visualization to illustrate the relationship between economic growth and quality of life indicators
How does Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjust economic indicators?
- PPP accounts for cost of living, based on the cost of a basket of consumer goods
- It’s not based on currency exchange rates
- PPP generally reduces High Income Country (HIC) values and increases Low Income Country (LIC) values due to differences in cost of living
What are some criticisms of using GDP and GNI as development indicators?
- They fail to account for income inequality within countries
- They report averages, which don’t show the range of incomes
- They don’t include the informal economy, which can be significant in some countries
- They don’t directly measure quality of life or social progress
What are the classifications of countries based on GNI per capita according to the World Bank as of 2019?
- Low-Income Countries (LICs): GNI per capita of $995 or less
- Lower Middle-Income Countries: GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895
- Upper Middle-Income Countries: GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055
- High-Income Countries (HICs): GNI per capita of $12,056 or more
What are the BRICS countries and what is their significance?
- BRICS Countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
- Significance: These countries are considered emerging economies with rapidly advancing national economies. They represent a significant portion of global GDP and trade.
What are some other emerging economies close to the BRICS?
Other emerging economies include Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Turkey.
Compare GNI per capita (PPP) for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada.
- Tanzania (LIC): $2,630
- Brazil (Middle-Income Emerging): $15,050
- Canada (HIC): $44,010
What are the Human Development Index (HDI) ranks and indices for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 151st rank, HDI index of 0.521
- Brazil: 75th rank, HDI index of 0.755
- Canada: 9th rank, HDI index of 0.913
What are the crude birth rates for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 36.0 births/1000/year
- Brazil: 14.3 births/1000/year
- Canada: 10.3 births/1000/year
Compare life expectancy in years for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada.
- Tanzania: 62.2 years
- Brazil: 73.8 years
- Canada: 81.9 years
What is the infant mortality rate for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 41.2 deaths under 1 year/1000 live births/year
- Brazil: 18.0 deaths under 1 year/1000 live births/year
- Canada: 4.6 deaths under 1 year/1000 live births/year
What are the adult literacy rates for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 67.8%
- Brazil: 90.4%
- Canada: 99.0%
What environmental issues do Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada face?
Tanzania: Soil degradation, deforestation, desertification, destruction of coral reefs and marine habitats.
Brazil: Deforestation, illegal wildlife trade, air and water pollution.
Canada: Water pollution from agricultural and industrial activities; emissions affecting agricultural productivity.
What are the main reasons for voluntary internal migration and what does it lead to?
Voluntary internal migration occurs for several reasons. Social reasons include better living conditions, which can encompass access to more services, improved health care, and enhanced educational opportunities. Economic reasons often involve the pursuit of higher wages and better job opportunities. This type of migration leads to significant redistribution of the population on a national scale, increasing the disparity between core and periphery regions. People typically leave disadvantaged rural areas to migrate to urban centers, resulting in rural-to-urban migration and movement from smaller towns to larger cities.
What are the characteristics of the core in the core-periphery model?
The core is characterized by being a well-developed and prosperous area with a strong economic base primarily in secondary and tertiary industries. It offers a wide range of services including health care, education, communications, and technology. The core has a robust infrastructure with reliable electricity, gas, and water supplies. High literacy rates and skill levels contribute to plentiful, well-paid job opportunities. Additionally, the core serves as a center for decision-making, scientific innovation, and economic growth, exporting manufactured goods and services to other regions. It may also distribute wealth to promote development in other areas and has experienced significant voluntary in-migration leading to the development of megacities.
What are the characteristics of the periphery in the core-periphery model?
The periphery is less developed, exhibiting lower standards of living and higher levels of poverty. Access to markets is limited due to its peripheral location and less extensive transport links. Services are insufficient, with limited access to potable water, health care, electricity, and education. Population growth tends to be higher as children are viewed as economic assets for subsistence farmers. The lack of job opportunities drives out-migration as individuals seek better prospects in urban areas of the core. Resources from the periphery often flow to the core to support industrial growth, resulting in lower levels of literacy and skills in peripheral regions.
How is global wealth distributed according to the Lorenz curve?
The Lorenz curve illustrates that 10% of the global population holds nearly 50% of total global wealth. In contrast, approximately 50% of the population possesses only about 8-9% of the world’s income. This stark inequality highlights the significant economic divide between different segments of society.
What are China’s megacities and their populations?
China is home to seven megacities, defined as cities with populations exceeding 10 million. Among these, three rank among the global top 20: Shanghai has a population of approximately 23.41 million; Beijing has around 21 million; and Guangzhou Foshan has about 20.5 million residents. These megacities have largely emerged due to in-migration from economically depressed rural areas.
How does the core-periphery model apply specifically to China?
In China, the core region is located in the southeast where population densities are highest due to favorable physical and human factors. This area features major coastal cities such as Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai with significant ports that facilitate trade. The core benefits from mineral deposits and superior infrastructure that ensure rapid economic growth along with significant in-migration. Conversely, the periphery is situated in northern regions and continental interiors where physical constraints limit development. These areas typically have poor accessibility, limited transport links, an agriculture-based economy with minimal mechanization, significant out-migration trends, and no major cities
What strategy has China implemented to address imbalances between core and periphery regions?
China has initiated “The Western Region Development Plan,” which is a dual strategy aimed at addressing disparities between core and peripheral areas. The first stage began in 1990 and was extended in 2010. This plan focuses on boosting economic growth in western regions while raising living standards and enhancing environmental conservation efforts over a ten-year period. It includes tax reductions and lower prices for industrial land aimed at stimulating development in these areas while alleviating pressure on overcrowded megacities like Beijing and Shanghai.
How does Australia’s population distribution appear at different scales?
At a global scale, Australia’s population distribution appears sparse with only two notable areas highlighted in the southeast: the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Victoria. When viewed at a national scale, it becomes evident that Australia’s population is predominantly concentrated along its coastlines due to favorable physical factors such as climate and accessibility to resources. At a regional scale focusing on Victoria specifically, population density patterns reveal that human factors such as employment opportunities also play a crucial role alongside physical characteristics.
How do physical and human factors influence population distribution?
Physical factors such as climate and terrain historically determined general patterns of population distribution across countries; however, their influence has diminished over time due to technological advancements that allow us to overcome many natural barriers (e.g., building on steep slopes or settling in colder regions). Currently, human factors—such as employment opportunities, accessibility to services, infrastructure development, and urban planning—play an increasingly significant role in shaping finer details of population distribution patterns.
What is the core-periphery model and who developed it?
The core-periphery model was developed by John Friedmann in 1963 with the purpose of identifying and explaining spatial differences within economies. This model can be applied at various scales including global, national, or local contexts (such as towns or cities). It divides regions into ‘core’ (developed) areas that experience growth due to economic advantages and ‘periphery’ (less developed) areas that often face challenges related to poverty and limited access to resources.
What is China’s economic status and development indicators?
China is classified as a middle-income emerging economy, specifically the ‘C’ in the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The country has a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of US$14,390 when adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). On the Human Development Index (HDI), China ranks 90th globally, indicating a moderate level of human development with significant potential for economic growth and social advancement
What are the primary physical factors influencing population distribution in China?
China’s population distribution is dramatically influenced by multiple physical factors:
Climate Factors:
- Eastern regions feature equable climates with long warm summers and short cold winters
- Far northeast experiences harsh climates with extended severe winters
- Humid subtropical regions are less comfortable for human settlement
Geographical Factors:
- Eastern areas characterized by low hills and coastal plains
- Central and western regions dominated by high steep mountains, Tibetan Plateau, and interior deserts
- Significant variations in latitude and altitude create diverse living conditions
Water Supply Considerations:
- Eastern regions benefit from plentiful rainfall and dense river networks
- Continental interior suffers from minimal rainfall and limited water resources
- The population density line in the south follows major river courses
Natural Resource Distribution:
- Extensive deposits of fuel, electric power, minerals, and metals concentrated in eastern regions
- Northwest areas have specific fuel deposits attracting localized population clusters
- Varied soil quality and agricultural potential significantly impact settlement patterns
How do human factors contribute to China’s population distribution?
Human factors play a crucial role in shaping China’s population distribution:
Industrial Development:
- Mineral resources in eastern and southeastern regions support extensive industrial growth
- Growing industrial sectors create substantial employment opportunities
- Shifting employment structure from traditional industries to service sectors
- Labor-intensive service industries like banking attract increasing population numbers
Technological and Infrastructure Developments:
- Low hills and coastal plains offer excellent communication networks
- Numerous sea and river ports facilitate trade
- High-speed train connections link major cities
- Improved accessibility encourages population concentration
Historical Influences:
- Long-standing trade history dating back to Han Dynasty (207 BC to 220 AD)
- Silk Road trading routes created linear population concentration patterns
- Historical trade networks continue to influence modern settlement patterns
Government Policies:
- Active governmental strategies to restrict megacity growth
- Population redistribution policies implemented
- Efforts to manage urban expansion and population density
Economic Transformation:
- Rapid transition from traditional to service-based economy
- Increasing urbanization
- Shift in employment opportunities driving population movements
What are the specific characteristics of China’s population distribution?
Numerical Overview:
- Total population: 1.4 billion
- Extremely uneven geographical distribution
- Approximately 74% of rural population within 60-minute driving distance from cities
Density Variations:
- Eastern regions: High-density areas exceeding 200 persons/km²
- Western regions: Extremely low densities, often below 25 persons/km²
- Some interior areas completely uninhabited
Key High-Density Regions:
- North China Plain
- Yangtze River Delta
- Pearl River Delta
- Sichuan Basin
Low-Density Regions:
- Inner Mongolia Plateau
- Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
- Northwestern arid regions
Urbanization Trends:
- Continuous rural-to-urban migration
- Growth of megacities like Shanghai and Beijing
- Persistent concentration of population in eastern regions despite economic changes
What significant variations exist in global population trends among different regions?
Global population trends reveal notable variations: some regions, such as parts of Europe and Asia, are experiencing shrinking populations. In contrast, regions like Africa and South Asia have expanding populations, while others maintain stable population levels. These trends collectively shape the overall global population dynamics.
How has the human population grown over the past century?
The human population has experienced unprecedented growth in the last century. It reached its first billion in approximately 1804, coinciding with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Since then, the time taken to reach each subsequent billion milestone has decreased significantly.
What are the key milestones in human population growth and their corresponding years?
The milestones in human population growth are as follows:
- 1 billion: reached in 1804 (all of human history up to that point)
- 2 billion: reached in 1927 (took 123 years)
- 3 billion: reached in 1959 (took 32 years)
- 4 billion: reached in 1974 (took 15 years)
- 5 billion: reached in 1987 (took 13 years)
- 6 billion: reached in 1999 (took 12 years)
- 7 billion: reached in 2012 (took 13 years)
What does the term “exponential growth” refer to in the context of human population?
Exponential growth refers to a rapid increase in population size over time. This phenomenon is illustrated by the decreasing time intervals between each billion milestone. Although human population continues to grow, the growth rate—the speed at which this growth occurs—has been declining over recent years.
What is “population momentum,” and how does it affect future growth?
Population momentum is a phenomenon where a population continues to grow even after fertility rates decline. This occurs because a significant proportion of the population is within childbearing age (typically ages 20–35). As long as there are many young adults, there will be higher birth rates, contributing to ongoing population growth despite a declining growth rate.
What is the current trend regarding global population growth rates?
While the global human population is still growing, the rate of that growth has been declining for several years. Despite this decline, projections indicate that the global population will continue to increase until at least 2050 and possibly beyond due to factors such as population momentum
How can statistical data help understand global populations?
Statistical data provide insights into patterns and trends within human populations worldwide. They can reveal what is considered ‘most typical’ among populations, helping researchers and policymakers interpret demographic statistics effectively. This data-driven approach aids in understanding societal changes and planning for future needs.
Define population momentum
The continued growth of a population even after fertility rates are down to replacement level.
What are population projections and what challenges do they face?
Population projections are educated estimates about future population growth, primarily based on anticipated fertility levels. However, these projections are problematic due to the unpredictability of fertility rates over time. It is challenging to accurately predict fertility rates even for the next decade, let alone a century into the future. Additionally, population change is not uniform across the globe; each country has unique demographic characteristics that complicate global predictions.
How do fertility rates vary between countries, and why does this affect population projections?
Fertility rates can vary dramatically between countries, which poses a significant challenge for making accurate global population projections. For instance, in 2014, South Korea had the lowest total fertility rate at 1.2 births per woman, while Niger had the highest at 7.6 births per woman. This discrepancy makes it difficult to project future population growth accurately because different countries will experience different demographic trends based on their unique social, economic, and cultural contexts.
What changes have been made to UN population projections since 2012?
Up until 2012, the UN projected that the global population would level off at around 9 billion people between 2050 and 2100. However, this projection has been adjusted based on new methodologies of probabilistic modeling and updated fertility data. The current projections estimate that the global population will reach approximately 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. These adjustments reflect a recognition that fertility rates are not declining as rapidly as previously anticipated, particularly in high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
What regions are expected to experience the majority of future population growth?
The majority of future population growth is expected to occur in Africa and Asia. Projections indicate that India will surpass China as the most populous country before the end of this period. In contrast, many other world regions have already stabilized or are experiencing leveling off in their populations. This uneven distribution of growth raises significant challenges for countries that are already facing issues such as poverty and resource scarcity.
How does life expectancy influence future population growth?
Current trends in life expectancy significantly impact future population growth projections. Over the next century, the average global lifespan is expected to increase from age 70 to age 83. This increase in life expectancy is anticipated to contribute more to overall population growth than changes in fertility rates alone. As people live longer, the total number of individuals in a population continues to rise, even if birth rates decline.
What are the different variants of UN population projections and what do they signify?
The UN uses different variants to project future population sizes: the high variant represents a worst-case scenario where death rates fall and life expectancy increases while birth rates remain constant; the medium variant reflects the most likely scenario based on current trends; and the low variant indicates a best-case scenario where death rates rise and birth rates decline. These variants help illustrate the range of possible futures based on varying assumptions about demographic changes.
What challenges does rapid population growth present for developing regions?
Rapid population growth, particularly in some of the poorest countries in Africa, poses significant challenges for development efforts aimed at eradicating poverty and inequality, combating hunger and malnutrition, and expanding access to education and health services. As populations grow in these regions, it becomes increasingly difficult to provide adequate resources and support systems necessary for improving living standards.
Why are population projections considered controversial among experts?
Population projections are often controversial due to wide variations in estimates from different experts. The UN’s most up-to-date projections could be inaccurate by as much as 2 billion people, indicating a substantial margin of error. Disagreements among demographers stem from differing assumptions about how quickly fertility will decline in various regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa. While some theorists believe that fertility will decrease rapidly as it did in Asia and Latin America, others argue that current data suggests a slower decline.
What is “population momentum,” and how does it affect demographic trends?
Population momentum refers to the phenomenon where populations continue to grow even after fertility rates have declined. This occurs because changes in fertility rates take time to manifest in actual population numbers due to existing age structures within a population. For instance, even if fertility rates drop below replacement levels today, it may take several decades for those changes to significantly impact overall population size because younger cohorts will still be entering childbearing age.
How does understanding population momentum influence policy-making?
Understanding population momentum is crucial for effective policy-making because it highlights that immediate changes in fertility rates will not result in instantaneous changes in overall population growth. Policymakers need to consider long-term demographic trends when planning for resource allocation, infrastructure development, and social services. Recognizing that it takes time for demographic shifts to occur allows governments and organizations to better prepare for future challenges related to sustainability and resource management.
What is the formula for natural population growth?
NIR: (CBR-CDR)-10 (CBR is crude birth rate and CDR is crude death rate)
What is the natural increase rate (NIR) and how does it affect population change?
The natural increase rate (NIR) is the balance between fertility and mortality rates in a population. It is the primary driver of population change, determining whether a population grows or declines. Contrary to its name, the NIR can be positive (increase) or negative (decrease). For example, in 2016, South Sudan had the highest NIR at 3.92%, while the Cook Islands had the lowest at -2.88%.
How do the crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) differ as measures of fertility?
The crude birth rate (CBR) is the number of babies born annually per 1,000 people in a population, including both males and females. The global average CBR is between 18.7 and 19.15 per 1,000 people per year. In contrast, the total fertility rate (TFR) represents the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime based on current trends. The replacement rate TFR is 2.2, meaning a population will remain stable at this level.
How does women’s status impact fertility rates in different countries?
In countries where women have low status, they often lack control over childbearing, work, and education choices. This lack of autonomy typically leads to higher fertility rates. Conversely, in developed nations where women are more educated and have greater employment opportunities, they tend to delay marriage and motherhood, resulting in lower fertility rates. Studies show that women with secondary education typically have two fewer children than those without education.
How does the role of children in the labor force or education system affect fertility rates?
In less economically developed countries (LICs), children are often viewed as economic assets, especially in rural areas where they work on farms and contribute to family income. This perspective leads to higher fertility rates. In contrast, in more economically developed countries (HICs), children are considered an economic burden due to extended education periods and associated costs, resulting in lower fertility rates.
What is the relationship between urban living and fertility rates?
Urban areas generally have lower fertility rates compared to rural areas. This is due to several factors: limited and more expensive living space in cities, better access to health care and family planning services, and improved access to education. These urban characteristics often lead to smaller family sizes and lower overall fertility rates.
How do lifestyle choices and cultural norms influence fertility rates in developed countries?
In many developed countries, cultural norms have shifted towards later marriages and smaller families. People often prioritize material possessions and experiences, such as holidays, cars, and luxury items, which are more challenging to afford with larger families. Additionally, there’s a growing belief that it’s better to have fewer children and focus resources on providing them with the best opportunities, rather than spreading resources among more children.
How do infant mortality rates (IMR) and pension systems affect fertility rates?
In countries with high infant mortality rates and no pension systems, couples tend to have more children as a form of insurance for their old age. For example, in many African countries where the IMR is above 70 per 1,000 live births, people have many children to ensure that some survive to care for them in their later years. This contrasts with European countries where the IMR is around 3 per 1,000 live births and pension systems are in place, resulting in lower fertility rates.
How do family planning services and access to abortion impact fertility rates?
The availability of family planning services, contraception, and legal abortions significantly impacts fertility rates. When these options are easily accessible, women have more control over their reproductive choices, which typically leads to lower fertility rates. Conversely, limited access to these services often results in higher fertility rates.
How do religious beliefs and traditions influence fertility rates?
Many religions prohibit the use of artificial contraception and abortion while actively encouraging large families. In numerous less developed countries, having many children is seen as a sign of a man’s virility. Since men often control fertility decisions in these cultures, this combination of religious beliefs and cultural traditions tends to increase fertility rates.
How do government policies affect fertility rates, and what are some examples?
Government policies can significantly impact fertility rates through pro-natalist or anti-natalist measures. Pro-natalist policies encourage higher birth rates but are often less successful. Anti-natalist policies promote smaller families and the use of family planning, often resulting in lower fertility rates. For example, China’s One Child policy, implemented in 1979, successfully reduced fertility rates but led to unintended consequences such as a gender imbalance with a shortage of females in the population.
What are the four primary measures of mortality, and what were their mean global rates in 2015?
The four primary measures of mortality are as follows: The crude death rate (CDR), which is the most commonly used measure, was 7.8 deaths per 1,000 people per year globally. The infant mortality rate (IMR) measures the number of children who die before their first birthday and was recorded at 32 deaths per 1,000 live births per year. The child mortality rate (CMR) tracks the number of children who die before their fifth birthday and stood at 43 deaths per 1,000 births per year. Finally, life expectancy (LE) indicates the average number of years a person is expected to live at birth, which was 71 years for individuals born in 2015.
How do mortality rates relate to population growth rates?
Mortality rates provide significant insights into population growth dynamics. Research indicates that a population growth rate of 0–0.5% is associated with crude death rates ranging from 5.1 in Micronesia to 15 in Russia. Conversely, this same growth rate correlates with crude birth rates between 9.1 in Portugal and 28 in Samoa. This suggests that mortality rates may serve as better predictors of future population structure compared to birth rates
What regional patterns are observed in mortality measures such as CDR, IMR, and LE?
Regional patterns reveal that Sub-Saharan Africa consistently exhibits the worst mortality rates, characterized by the highest CDR and IMR along with the lowest life expectancy. In contrast, high-income countries (HICs) typically have the lowest IMR and the highest life expectancies, reflecting their advanced healthcare systems and living conditions. Interestingly, HICs do not always have the lowest CDRs; some South American, Asian, and North African countries report lower death rates, indicating that various factors influence these outcomes.
What major factors influence global mortality rates?
Several key factors impact global mortality rates. Income plays a crucial role; higher-income families generally have better access to food, healthcare, education, shelter, electricity, and clean water, all contributing to lower mortality rates. Literacy and education are particularly significant among women; educated mothers tend to have lower child mortality rates because they possess greater knowledge about childcare and health practices. For example, Angola had an IMR of 96 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015 alongside a female adult literacy rate of only 24%, while Singapore had an IMR of just 2 deaths per 1,000 live births with a literacy rate of 95%.
How does access to food affect mortality rates?
Access to food is vital for health and survival. A balanced diet providing adequate calories—typically between 2,000 to 2,500 calories daily—is essential for good health. In high-income countries (HICs), average calorie intake often exceeds 3,340 calories but can lead to obesity-related health issues like cardiovascular disease. Conversely, many individuals in low-income countries (LICs) consume fewer than 2,200 calories daily and less than 60 grams of protein, leading to malnutrition and nutrient deficiency diseases that significantly increase mortality rates.
What role does healthcare availability play in influencing mortality rates?
Access to healthcare is a critical determinant of mortality rates. In most high-income countries (HICs), public healthcare services are widely available, which helps lower CDR through effective disease prevention and treatment programs. These services include immunization initiatives and routine medical care. In contrast, many low-income countries (LICs) lack basic healthcare facilities and immunization programs, resulting in elevated mortality rates due to untreated diseases.
How do water supply and sanitation impact global mortality?
Water supply and sanitation are crucial for public health; according to the World Health Organization, approximately 3.4 million people die each year from water-related diseases—over 9,000 daily. These diseases encompass cholera, dysentery, botulism, and giardiasis. Poor access to clean water exacerbates these issues and is often compounded by inadequate sanitation facilities.
How does access to shelter affect mortality rates?
Access to adequate shelter significantly influences mortality rates. Individuals lacking protection from environmental elements such as rain, cold temperatures, heat, and disease-carrying organisms face increased risks of illness and death. Poor housing conditions can lead to higher exposure to infectious diseases and other health hazards.
What lifestyle choices contribute to higher crude death rates (CDRs) in high-income countries?
Lifestyle choices prevalent in many high-income countries contribute to rising CDRs due to poor dietary habits combined with sedentary lifestyles. Many people consume excessive amounts of unhealthy foods while engaging in little physical activity—relying on cars for transportation rather than walking or cycling—which increases the risk of degenerative diseases such as heart disease and diabetes.
How does population aging affect mortality rates in high-income countries?
High-income countries often experience higher death rates due to aging populations. Despite advancements in diet and healthcare systems that enhance life expectancy over time, all individuals eventually reach old age where they become more susceptible to degenerative diseases such as cancer. The cumulative effect of prolonged life expectancy results in increased mortality as these populations age.
Define Crude death rate (CDR)
The number of deaths/1000 per year.
Define Infant mortality rate (IMR)
The number of children who die before the age of 1 year/1000 live births per year.
Define Child mortality rate (CMR)
The number of children who die before their fifth birthday/1000 births per year.
Define Life expectancy
The number of years you are expected to live at birth.
What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) and when was it developed?
The Demographic Transition Model was developed in the 1920s based on observations of demographic changes in selected European countries over the previous 200 years. Initially, the model had four stages, but a fifth stage was later added to account for continued demographic changes in developed countries. The DTM is used to predict population changes in less developed countries, assuming they will follow a similar progression as more developed nations.
What are the key characteristics of Stage 1 (High Stationary) in the DTM?
Stage 1 is characterized by high fluctuating crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR), resulting in a very low to zero natural increase rate (NIR). High birth rates are due to factors such as the need for children to work, high child mortality, lack of family planning, early marriages, and religious encouragement of procreation. High death rates are caused by disease outbreaks, famine, poor sanitation, limited healthcare, and lack of knowledge about disease spread.
How does Stage 2 (Early Expanding) differ from Stage 1 in the DTM?
In Stage 2, the crude birth rate remains high, but death rates drop quickly, causing a significant increase in the natural increase rate and a rapidly expanding population. Falling death rates are attributed to improved food production and storage, better understanding of disease spread, medical advancements like penicillin and vaccinations, and increased access to basic healthcare and education.
What are the main features of Stage 3 (Late Expanding) in the DTM?
Stage 3 sees continued falling death rates and the beginning of declining birth rates. This stage experiences the highest natural increase rate of all stages due to the large gap between CBR and CDR. The fall in birth rates is attributed to improved status and education of women, availability of contraceptives, understanding of family planning, bans on child labor, and children becoming a financial burden due to education costs.
How does Stage 4 (Low Stationary) differ from previous stages in the DTM?
In Stage 4, birth rates, death rates, and natural increase rates are all low. However, the population is already large due to the previous periods of high growth. The population pyramid for this stage shows a more rectangular shape, indicating a more even distribution of age groups.
What are the key characteristics of Stage 5 (Declining) in the DTM?
In Stage 5, death rates exceed birth rates due to an increase in lifestyle diseases such as cardiovascular issues caused by low exercise and high obesity levels. An aging population emerges as the large numbers from high birth rates in earlier stages reach old age. This stage faces challenges with unfavorable dependency ratios, as there are fewer workers to support the growing elderly population.
What are the main criticisms of the Demographic Transition Model?
The DTM faces several criticisms: it is Eurocentric and based on high-income countries, which may not apply to low-income countries; some low-income countries are progressing through stages faster due to existing medical and educational advancements; it doesn’t account for natural disasters, epidemics, or wars; it ignores government population policies; it doesn’t consider migration impacts; and cultural and religious factors in some countries maintain high birth rates, keeping them in Stage 2.
Define population pyramid
A graphical illustration to show the age and gender distribution of a population.
What are population pyramids and how are they structured?
Population pyramids, also known as age/sex or age/gender pyramids, are graphical illustrations showing the age and gender distribution of a population. They consist of horizontal bars on either side of a vertical axis (y-axis), with each bar representing 5-year age groups from 0-4 years to 100+ years. The left side represents males, and the right side represents females. The horizontal axis (x-axis) shows population numbers in millions, thousands, or percentages.
How do population pyramids reflect a country’s demographic history?
Population pyramids provide a snapshot of a population’s composition at a specific time, revealing demographic history. In more developed countries, these pyramids can show population composition over the past 100 years, while in less developed countries, they typically cover up to 70 years. They can reveal past events such as wars, disease outbreaks, and migration patterns, which may appear as declines in specific age groups.
How do disasters like war and disease appear in population pyramids?
Disasters appear as declines in age groups alive during the event. Specific diseases, like HIV/AIDS, may show as sharp declines in sexually active age groups and under-5s in some African countries. Wars and widespread diseases affect all ages but often impact males more severely. Post-war periods often show a “baby boom,” with a significant increase in the immediate post-war age group.
What can population pyramids reveal about gender distribution?
Population pyramids show gender distribution across age groups. Most countries have a roughly equal gender balance, except at the pyramid’s top, where females typically outnumber males. Significantly fewer females in the 0-5 age group might indicate female infanticide. A larger number of males in working age groups could suggest the presence of migrant workers, as seen in countries like Qatar.
How do population pyramids indicate crude birth rates (CBR)?
The crude birth rate is indicated by the size of the lowest bar (0-4 year olds) in the pyramid. A broad base suggests a high CBR, while a narrow base indicates a low CBR. If the pyramid ‘tucks in’ at the base, it suggests a recent fall in birth rates.
How can crude death rates (CDR) be interpreted from population pyramids?
The crude death rate is reflected in the size of the drop between consecutive age groups. Straight sides indicate few deaths between age groups and thus a low CDR. A concave pyramid suggests a large drop between age groups and a high CDR. A particularly large drop between the 0-4 and 5-9 age groups indicates high child and/or infant mortality.
How is life expectancy represented in population pyramids?
Life expectancy is indicated by the height of the pyramid and the number of people in older age groups. A tall pyramid with a significant number of people over 80 years old suggests high life expectancy, while a shorter pyramid with few people over 80 indicates low life expectancy.
How can natural increase rate (NIR) be deduced from a population pyramid?
The natural increase rate is indicated by the overall shape of the pyramid. Pyramids suggesting a country is in stage 2 or 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) indicate a high NIR, while those showing stages 1, 4, or 5 of the DTM suggest a low NIR.
How can governments use population pyramids for planning?
Governments can use population pyramids to anticipate future needs and challenges. For example, a country with high birth rates and falling death rates might need to plan for increased demand in education, healthcare, and job opportunities. Countries with aging populations might need to prepare for changes in healthcare needs and pension systems.
What are some limitations or considerations when interpreting population pyramids?
While population pyramids provide valuable demographic insights, they are snapshots in time and may not capture rapid changes or future events. They also don’t account for factors like sudden policy changes, economic shifts, or environmental disasters that could alter demographic trends. Additionally, the quality of data used to construct the pyramid can vary, especially in less developed countries.
Define dependency ratio
The proportion of dependents to workers.
Specifically, it shows how many people are dependent on 100 people of independent age:
- dependents: the number of people under 15 or over 64 years of age
- workforce (or workers): the population aged 15–64.
What is the formula for total dependency ratio?
Total dependency ratio = (population under 15 + population over 64/ population aged 15-64) x 100
What is the formula for young age dependency ratio?
Young age dependency ratio = (population under 15/population aged 15-64) x 100
What is the formula for ageing ratio?
Ageing ratio = (population over 64/population aged 15-64) x100
What are dependency ratios and how are they defined?
Dependency ratios are a method of analyzing who generates income to support non-working individuals. The population is divided into two primary groups: dependents (typically under 15 or over 64 years old) and workers (16-64-year-olds who earn money and support children and elderly through direct support or taxes). This ratio provides insights into the economic burden carried by the working population in supporting non-working members of society.
What are the key limitations of dependency ratio calculations?
Dependency ratios have several significant limitations. They count the population of working age, not the actual number of employed individuals, which means high unemployment rates are not reflected in the calculation. The ratio assumes people under 15 and over 64 do not work, which is increasingly inaccurate as retirement ages change and child labor exists in some regions. Additionally, the legal working age varies between countries, and in some places, such regulations may be disregarded or non-existent.
How are dependency ratio levels interpreted?
Dependency ratios are interpreted based on their numerical value relative to 100. A high dependency ratio (above 100) means each worker supports themselves and more than one additional person - for instance, supporting themselves and three and a half other individuals. A medium ratio (exactly 100) indicates each worker supports themselves and one other person. A low ratio (below 100) suggests each worker supports themselves and only a fraction of another dependent, such as a ratio of 50 meaning each worker supports half of another person’s needs.
What global patterns emerge in dependency ratios?
Global dependency ratio patterns reveal significant regional variations. African countries like Niger, Uganda, Chad, Mali, and Angola have the highest dependency ratios, often exceeding 100%, primarily due to youthful populations. In contrast, Middle Eastern countries such as Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, and Macao have the lowest ratios, ranging from 17% to 35%, largely attributed to their substantial migrant labor forces. Interestingly, in 1960, these ten countries had remarkably similar total dependency ratios.
How do youthful and aging dependencies differ globally?
Youthful and aging dependencies show dramatically different global patterns. African countries exhibit extremely high youthful dependency, with nearly 50% of their populations under 14 years old. This contrasts sharply with developed regions like Macao, which has a low youthful dependency of 13%. Aging dependency tells a different story - Macao has a 9% aging population, while UAE and Qatar have only 1% due to migrant workers typically returning home when they can no longer work.
What challenges do different types of dependency present?
Different dependency types present unique challenges. High youthful dependency in less developed countries requires significant investment in education, healthcare, and future workforce development. Aging dependency in developed nations demands robust healthcare systems, pension infrastructure, and strategies to support an increasingly older population. As of 2015, Japan had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and above at 26%, highlighting the growing global concern about aging populations.
How do population pyramids relate to dependency ratios?
Population pyramids provide a visual representation of dependency ratios by showing age group distributions. Pyramids can be calculated to highlight specific age groups: those under 15 and over 64. Countries like Niger appear “bottom-heavy” with high youthful dependency, while Japan looks “middle and top-heavy” with high aging dependency. These visual representations help policymakers understand the demographic challenges and opportunities within their populations.
What factors influence variations in dependency ratios?
Dependency ratio variations stem from multiple interconnected factors including economic development, birth rates, migration patterns, healthcare quality, and cultural practices. Less developed countries often have higher youthful dependencies due to higher birth rates and lower life expectancies. Developed countries with significant migrant workforces can manipulate their dependency ratios by having a large, temporary working population that returns home when no longer employable.
How have dependency ratios changed over time?
Historical data shows significant shifts in dependency ratios. Countries like Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, and Macao have seen dramatic improvements from dependency ratios between 75-90% in 1960 to much lower levels today. African countries have experienced more complex changes, with dependency ratios remaining high but showing some stabilization in the 2000s. These changes reflect broader economic, social, and demographic transformations.
What are the broader implications of dependency ratios for policy-making?
Dependency ratios provide crucial insights for policy-makers, helping them plan for future economic, social, and healthcare needs. High youthful dependency requires investments in education and infrastructure, while high aging dependency demands robust healthcare and pension systems. Understanding these ratios helps governments anticipate workforce challenges, allocate resources effectively, and develop strategies to support different population segments.
How do the Human Development Index (HDI) rankings compare among Niger, Sierra Leone, India, and Japan?
The HDI rankings for these countries show significant disparities in development levels. Niger ranks lowest at 188th out of 188 countries with an HDI of 0.348. Sierra Leone follows at 181st with an HDI of 0.413. India ranks 130th with an HDI of 0.609, showing a middle level of development. Japan, in stark contrast, ranks 20th with a high HDI of 0.891, indicating its advanced development status.
What are the total population figures and natural increase rates for Niger, Sierra Leone, India, and Japan compared to the world average?
As of the data provided, the world population was 7,323,187,457 with a natural increase rate of 1.2%. Niger had a population of 18,638,600 with a high natural increase rate of 4.0%. Sierra Leone’s population was 6,018,888 with a 2.2% increase rate. India, with 1,266,883,598 people, matched the world average at 1.2%. Japan, showing population decline, had 126,702,133 people and a negative natural increase rate of -0.2%.
How do the total fertility rates (TFR) and crude death rates (CDR) compare among these countries?
Niger has the highest TFR at 7.6 children per woman and a CDR of 12.1 deaths per 1000 people per year. Sierra Leone follows with a TFR of 4.6 and CDR of 10.6. India’s TFR is close to the world average at 2.4, with a CDR of 7.3. Japan has the lowest TFR at 1.4 children per woman, below replacement level, and a CDR of 7.8, similar to the world average of 7.8 deaths per 1000 people per year.
What factors contribute to Niger’s high natural increase rate and total fertility rate?
Niger’s high natural increase rate (4.0%) and total fertility rate (7.6 children per woman) are attributed to its status as a very poor African country with 90% of the population dependent on agriculture. In such communities, children are still viewed as economic assets. Despite falling crude death rates and increasing life expectancy due to World Health Organization interventions and improved health practices, the fertility rate remains high, contributing to rapid population growth.
How did Sierra Leone’s demographic indicators change between 1960 and 2014, and what factors influenced these changes?
Sierra Leone experienced an overall increase in its natural increase rate of about 1% between 1960 and 2014. Life expectancy increased from 30 to 51 years, with a significant dip below 40 years from 1982 to 2001 due to civil war and conflict. The total fertility rate initially increased from 6 to a peak around 1990, then decreased to 4.6 by 2014. These changes reflect Sierra Leone’s status as a poor African nation with high agricultural dependency (71%), but also its progress in development compared to countries like Niger.
How do India’s demographic trends compare to world averages, and what factors are driving these trends?
India’s demographic trends closely mirror world averages. Its natural increase rate decreased from 2.0% to 1.2%, matching the global rate. Total fertility rate fell from 5.9 to 2.4 children per woman, similar to the global decline from 5.0 to 2.5. Life expectancy increased from 41 to 68 years, compared to the world’s increase from 52.5 to 71.5 years. These trends are driven by India’s rapid development as a BRICS nation, urbanization, and industrialization, placing it at stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model.
What are the key characteristics of Japan’s demographic situation, and what factors contribute to these trends?
Japan, as a highly developed nation at stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model, exhibits a declining population with a negative natural increase rate (-0.2%). Its total fertility rate has been below replacement level for decades, dropping from 2.0 in 1960 to 1.4 in 2014. Life expectancy increased from 67.7 to 83.6 years. These trends are influenced by Japan’s advanced economy, high urbanization (93.5%), low agricultural dependency (1.2%), and the status of women in society, who actively participate in economic life, marry late, and have few children.
How does life expectancy compare among Niger, Sierra Leone, India, Japan, and the world average?
Life expectancy varies significantly among these countries. The world average is 71.5 years. Niger’s life expectancy is 61.5 years, having nearly doubled from 35 years in 1960. Sierra Leone has the lowest at 50.9 years, reflecting its history of conflict and poverty. India’s life expectancy is 68.0 years, close to the world average. Japan has the highest life expectancy at 83.6 years, showcasing its advanced healthcare and living standards.
What role does agriculture play in the demographic patterns of these countries?
Agricultural dependency significantly influences demographic patterns. Niger, with 90% of its population dependent on agriculture, maintains high fertility rates. Sierra Leone, with 71% agricultural dependency, shows similar but improving trends. India, with 49% agricultural dependency, is transitioning with declining fertility rates as it industrializes. Japan, with only 1.2% agricultural dependency, exemplifies how reduced reliance on agriculture correlates with very low fertility rates and advanced demographic transition.
How do urbanization and the presence of megacities impact the demographic trends in India and Japan?
Urbanization and megacities play crucial roles in demographic shifts. India, with an urbanization rate of 2.38% per year and three megacities (Kolkata, Mumbai, and New Delhi), is experiencing rapid demographic changes associated with urban growth. Japan, with 93.5% urbanization and the world’s largest megacity (Tokyo with 37.8 million people), exemplifies how extreme urbanization correlates with very low fertility rates and an aging population. These urban centers drive economic development, changing lifestyles, and demographic patterns in both countries.
What stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) does Niger appear to be in based on its Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR)?
Niger shows characteristics of multiple DTM stages. Its high CBR (49 births/1000/year in 2014) is indicative of Stage 1, while its low CDR (9 deaths/1000/year in 2014) is more typical of Stage 4. This illustrates a criticism of the DTM - that less developed countries may progress through stages faster than the model predicts, while cultural factors keep birth rates high.
How does Sierra Leone’s demographic transition differ from Niger’s?
Sierra Leone shows lower CBR but higher CDR than Niger. Its CBR declined sharply from 46 to 36 births/1000/year after 1995, suggesting Stage 2 of the DTM. The CDR fell by 20 deaths/1000/year between 1960 and 2014, with a spike in the mid-1990s, indicative of Stage 3. Sierra Leone’s population pyramid suggests it’s closer to Stage 2 of the DTM.
Describe India’s progression through the Demographic Transition Model between 1960 and 2014.
India transitioned from late Stage 2 to late Stage 3 of the DTM. In 1960, it showed a significant gap between high CBR and rapidly falling CDR (late Stage 2). By 1975, CDR decrease slowed while CBR decline accelerated (early Stage 3). In 2014, the gap between CBR and CDR had narrowed, with CBR still declining and CDR leveled off (late Stage 3).
How does Japan’s demographic transition from 1960 to 2014 differ from the other countries?
Japan progressed from late Stage 3/early Stage 4 to Stage 5 of the DTM. In 1960, both CBR (17 births/1000/year) and CDR (8 deaths/1000/year) were low. By 2014, CBR dropped below CDR (8 vs. 10 deaths/1000/year), indicating Stage 5. Japan’s inverted pyramid shape supports this, showing declining CBR and an aging population.
Compare the dependency ratios of Niger, Sierra Leone, India, and Japan in 2015.
In 2015, India had the best dependency ratio, improving steadily since the late 1960s. Japan’s ratio worsened since 1992 due to an aging population. Sierra Leone maintained a ratio below 100% since 1960, improving after 1990. Niger had the worst ratio, exceeding 100%, meaning each worker supported more than one additional person.
How does India’s age structure contribute to its favorable dependency ratio?
India’s favorable dependency ratio is due to its age structure: 66.2% of the population is of working age, just under a third is in youthful ages, and very few are elderly. This distribution results from falling birth rates reducing youthful dependency and death rates keeping aging dependency low.
What challenges does Japan face due to its age structure and dependency ratio?
Japan faces significant challenges due to its age structure, with nearly a third of the population over 64 years old. This creates a serious aging dependency, despite an overall dependency ratio of 65%. The inverted pyramid shape of Japan’s population structure indicates long-term issues with supporting an elderly population with a shrinking workforce.
Define megacity
A metropolitan area with a population in excess of 10 million people. A megacity may be:
- a single metropolitan area; for example, Jakarta, population just over 26 million, population density 9400 people/km2
- two or more metropolitan areas merged; for example, Tokyo-Yokohama, population 37.1 million, population density 4300 people/km2.
How has the number of megacities changed between 1990 and 2014, and where are most of these megacities located?
According to the United Nations, the number of megacities increased from 10 in 1990 to 28 in 2014. These megacities housed 153 million people in 1990 (7% of the global urban population) and 453 million people in 2014 (12% of the global urban population). Over half of these megacities are located in Asia, where expansion is expected to continue.
What historical context explains the emergence of megacities?
Urbanization has been ongoing for centuries. For example, Rome reached 1 million people by the end of the first century BC, and London reached 1 million in the early 1800s and 5 million by 1900. New York became the first megacity in 1950. The balance between rural and urban populations shifted significantly with the agricultural and industrial revolutions, leading to increased urbanization as people moved from rural areas to industrial cities.
What factors drove urbanization in high-income countries (HICs) and how did it differ from less developed countries (LICs)?
In HICs, urbanization was driven by improvements in agricultural techniques that led to rural unemployment, pushing people to move to industrial cities for jobs. This trend continued until the 1950s when counter-urbanization began. In LICs, urbanization accelerated from the 1950s onwards due to rural-urban migration and high rates of natural population increase. The pull factors included better job opportunities, higher living standards, and access to basic services like healthcare and education.
What are the push and pull factors that contribute to rural-urban migration in LICs?
Push factors from rural areas include lack of employment due to mechanization of agriculture, falling crop yields, threat of famine, lack of basic services like medical care, schooling, electricity, and improved water supply. Pull factors towards cities include more job opportunities that are better paid and less physically taxing, higher standards of living, and perceived availability of basic services. Additionally, cities are seen as less likely to experience natural disasters or conflicts.
How do high rates of natural population increase contribute to the growth of megacities in LICs?
In many LICs, high fertility rates and lower mortality rates in urban areas compared to rural areas contribute to rapid urban growth. This natural increase, combined with rural-urban migration, results in exponential growth of megacities.
What is the projected future growth of megacities, and which regions are expected to see the most significant expansion?
The future growth of megacities is projected to be dominated by Asia and Africa. China and India are expected to see the fastest growth, with China already having 15 megacities as of 2017. Other Asian cities like Karachi, New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangkok, Dhaka, and Jakarta are also experiencing rapid expansion.
How do megacity growth rates differ between high-income countries (HICs) and less developed countries (LICs)?
HICs have much lower growth rates for their megacities, ranging from 2.4% for Osaka-Kobe to 7% for Tokyo. This is because HICs are already highly urbanized and some are experiencing counter-urbanization trends. In contrast, LICs are seeing rapid growth due to high natural increase rates and continued rural-urban migration.
What is the outlook for megacities in Central and South America?
Megacities in Central and South America, such as Mexico City, Buenos Aires, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, appear to have reached saturation points. As fertility rates drop, the potential for growth decreases, leading to slower growth rates in these regions.
How do local estimates and UN definitions of megacities sometimes differ?
The listing of megacities can vary significantly depending on how the ‘city’ is delineated. Local estimates often differ from UN estimates, leading to discrepancies in the number and size of megacities reported.
What are some of the consequences of rapid megacity growth for individuals and societies?
Rapid growth of megacities comes with several challenges, including strain on resources, infrastructure, and services. It can lead to issues such as overcrowding, inadequate housing, and increased pressure on healthcare and education systems. Additionally, environmental and social problems can arise, making sustainable urban planning crucial for managing these megacities effectively.
Define gentrification
Restoring and upgrading old houses and stores in poor neighbourhoods. It is associated with a sociocultural change from low class to upper-middle class
What opportunities do megacities present to the global economy?
Megacities are centers of economic dominance and innovation, contributing significantly to the global economy. According to the UN, in 2014, 60% of global GDP was produced in just 600 cities. With the rise of megacities in less-developed areas, particularly in low-income countries (LICs), these regions are expected to become increasingly important in the global economy.
How have megacities evolved as economic hubs?
Megacities exist as interconnected urban centers with rich hinterlands that attract growth and foreign investment. They have become commercial and financial hubs, often accounting for at least 33% of national GDP. For instance, London generates nearly half of the GDP of the UK. The presence of transnational companies in these cities fosters further economic activity and investment.
What challenges do megacities face due to rapid growth?
The rapid growth of megacities, especially in LICs, presents significant challenges, primarily related to infrastructure. A growth rate of 1% per annum is often too fast for infrastructure—such as roads, public transport, healthcare, schools, and housing—to keep pace with the demands of a growing population. This can lead to problems such as slums, high crime rates, traffic congestion, air pollution, urban sprawl, and gentrification
What environmental sustainability issues are associated with megacities?
Megacities face serious environmental sustainability challenges due to their reliance on non-renewable resources. High energy consumption is common, with most electricity generated from fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Water consumption is also high, often exceeding renewal rates from aquifers. Additionally, waste generation is significant, with many cities using landfills for disposal.
How does urban sprawl impact agricultural land and ecosystems?
Urban sprawl refers to the expansion of cities into surrounding rural areas as populations increase. This expansion often encroaches on rich agricultural land and degrades natural ecosystems. Cities initially thrive due to their agricultural hinterlands; however, as they expand into these areas, they jeopardize food production capacity and environmental health.
What is gentrification and what are its dual impacts?
Gentrification refers to the process where wealthier individuals move into a neighborhood, leading to increased property values and changes in the area’s character. The advantages include rising average incomes and reduced family sizes as more educated residents tend to have fewer children. However, disadvantages include displacement of lower-income residents due to rising rents and property taxes, which can lead to homelessness and reduced availability of affordable housing.
What are some consequences of traffic congestion in megacities?
Traffic congestion leads to significant economic costs due to lost productivity from workers sitting in traffic. Increased transport costs for companies result in higher prices for goods. A report estimated that traffic delays cost $200 billion across the UK, France, Germany, and the USA in 2013—about 0.8% of GDP. Severe congestion can also lead to creative solutions like ‘car-sitting’ services during long traffic jams.
How does pollution manifest in megacities?
Pollution in megacities primarily manifests as air pollution from vehicle emissions, industrial activities, and electricity generation from thermal power stations. Over 80% of urban residents breathe air that fails WHO standards for air quality. Water pollution occurs due to runoff from urban surfaces contaminating water sources. Other forms include light pollution affecting sleep patterns and noise pollution impacting mental health.
What trends are projected for megacity growth by 2030?
By 2030, it is projected that there will be 41 megacities globally, including 12 in China and six in India. This represents a significant increase from just 25 megacities in 2000. The majority will be located in Asia but will also emerge in parts of Africa and South America.
How do emerging megacities present opportunities for businesses and governments?
Emerging megacities offer numerous opportunities for businesses due to anticipated population increases and economic growth potential. Understanding these urban landscapes allows governments and policymakers to address social and economic issues effectively while planning for sustainable development that accommodates rapid urbanization.
Define migration
In human terms, the movement of people from one place to another.
Define forced migration
The movement of people from an area where the push factors are so strong that they are beyond the control of the migrants and cannot be ignored.
Define refugees
Migrants who are forced to leave their home countries and cross international borders to seek refuge.
Define internally displaced persons (IDPs)
Are like refugees; they are forced to move but stay within their own country. They move to a different region.
What are the different types of migration?
Migration can occur over long or short distances, within a country or across international borders. It can be permanent, where individuals have no intention of returning, or temporary, such as when someone works overseas for a few years. Additionally, migration can be classified as forced, driven by extreme push factors like war or environmental disasters, or voluntary.
What are push and pull factors in the context of migration?
Push factors drive people away from their current location, such as war, drought, and lack of employment. Pull factors attract individuals to a new location, including safety, security, and better economic opportunities. Forced migration is often driven by severe push factors that can be political or environmental in nature
What political factors contribute to forced migration?
Political push factors include war or civil conflict, political repression, and persecution. Examples include the Syrian crisis that began in 2011 and ethnic cleansing events like the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Development-induced relocation occurs when governments displace people for development projects, such as the Three Gorges Dam in China, which relocated between 90 and 100 million people.
How do environmental factors lead to forced migration?
Environmental push factors include natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and droughts that can cause permanent or temporary displacement. For example, the 2011 earthquake in Japan triggered a tsunami that displaced many people. Other environmental issues include biological problems like locust plagues and physical challenges like climate change causing droughts and desertification.
What are some consequences of forced migration for destination countries?
The arrival of large numbers of refugees can create significant challenges for destination countries, particularly those that are already struggling with development. Consequences include increased pressure on jobs, public services (housing, education, healthcare), social tensions, and health care systems that may not be equipped to handle an influx of new residents
How do refugees impact local economies and social structures?
Refugees can strain local economies by increasing demand for goods and services while also potentially attracting international aid and investment aimed at supporting them. However, they may also lead to elevated crime rates in refugee camps and surrounding areas due to social instability. The environment can suffer from overuse of resources like water and firewood.
What challenges do migrants face upon arrival in destination countries?
Migrants often find themselves in temporary camps with high population densities and poor living conditions. They face inadequate food supply, sanitation issues, limited housing options, and insufficient healthcare services. This environment increases mortality rates above those of local populations due to malnutrition and disease outbreaks.
How does the loss of social networks affect refugees?
Refugees frequently lose friends and family during their flight from conflict or disaster, resulting in a lack of social networks that provide support and coping mechanisms. This situation is exacerbated if they move to a country where they do not speak the local language, leading to increased risks of mental health issues such as depression.
What health risks do refugees face in camps?
Refugees are at constant risk of disease outbreaks due to poor living conditions. Diarrhea and cholera are particularly lethal threats in refugee camps; studies indicate that up to 70% of deaths in these settings can be attributed to these diseases. Malnutrition is also prevalent due to limited food supplies often reliant on aid agencies.
What potential benefits might arise from an influx of refugees into host countries?
Although challenges exist, an influx of young workers may attract investment and stimulate economic growth in host countries. Increased demand for locally produced goods and services can also lead to development projects supported by international agencies like the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), ultimately benefiting both refugees and host communities.
What percentage of refugees are children under 18, according to the European Commission?
The European Commission estimates that 51% of refugees are children under the age of 18. This statistic is particularly concerning because children lack the financial resources to manage an international move and often struggle with the emotional and social impacts of being a refugee.
How does the European Commission assist refugees?
The European Commission uses about 70% of its humanitarian budget on refugee cases. They assist refugees by meeting immediate needs like food and shelter, protecting and supporting refugees during displacement and return, increasing refugee self-reliance, advocating for long-term solutions, and working to proactively reduce refugee crises through disaster preparedness and prevention.
What were the main causes of the Syrian refugee crisis?
The Syrian refugee crisis began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring. It was triggered by a violent government crackdown on non-violent anti-government protests, which led to the formation of armed opposition groups. The situation was exacerbated by outside parties joining with air strikes in 2015, and intense fighting around Aleppo City in early 2016.
What are the primary reasons Syrians were forced to leave their homes?
Syrians fled their homes due to bombings destroying cities and cutting off communication, prevalent human rights violations, nearly 500,000 people killed since 2011, destroyed infrastructure (including healthcare, clean water, and schools), children being used as human shields and forced to fight, and civilians being caught in the crossfire of a constantly changing frontline.
Which countries have received the majority of Syrian refugees?
The majority of Syrian refugees have fled to neighboring countries: Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt. Only about 10% of Syrian refugees have made their way to Europe.
What economic impact has the Syrian refugee crisis had on Jordan?
According to the World Bank, the influx of Syrian refugees to Jordan has cost the country 6% of its GDP every year (US$2.5 billion) as of 2016. This has led to Jordan’s debt reaching 95% of its GDP, severely hampering economic progress.
How has Turkey been affected by the Syrian refugee crisis?
Turkey hosts nearly 3 million registered refugees, with 30% living in government-run camps near the Syrian border. The estimated cost to Turkey is US$8 billion, with limited international aid to help cope. This situation has led to significant tensions within the country.
What are some of the living conditions faced by Syrian refugees in camps?
Refugees in camps often face difficult conditions including limited or no access to clean water, overcrowded shelters (often tents), little to no sanitation, and the spread of diseases like cholera and diarrhea due to cramped conditions and lack of medical services.
How has the refugee crisis affected children’s education in host countries?
There are not enough spaces in schools to accommodate all refugee children, and language barriers often complicate access to education. Some schools have resorted to operating in two shifts to allow more children to receive an education.
What challenges do Syrian refugees face when living in urban areas outside of official camps?
Refugees in urban areas struggle to pay rent and often end up in derelict buildings or makeshift shelters without basic amenities. They face difficulties finding legal employment, often leading to exploitation by employers. Most live below the poverty line and struggle to afford basic necessities. Language barriers further complicate their ability to find work and integrate into their new communities.
How many environmental refugees were there in 1995 and 2012?
In 1995, the last full assessment showed 25 million people displaced by environmental events. By 2012, this number had increased to 32.4 million people displaced by environmental disasters.
What percentage of displacement is linked to global climate change?
Approximately 98% of displacement is linked to global climate change.
How is climate change affecting the island nation of Kiribati?
Global climate change is threatening to wipe out Kiribati. As a result, 94,000 people are being gradually resettled on other islands, including New Zealand.
How many people are impacted by desertification globally?
Desertification is a huge global problem impacting between 100-200 million people.
What are some examples of climate-driven environmental disasters?
Examples include rising sea levels causing flooding in Bangladesh, pushing refugees into India; droughts in Sahel countries causing internal relocation or flight to neighboring countries; and intensified hurricanes and typhoons causing temporary relocation.
What is the Sahel and where is it located?
The Sahel is an area of ecosystem transition between desert and savannah. It is 1000 km wide, stretching across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, encompassing parts of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, North Sudan, Eritrea, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and northern Ethiopia.
What are the rainfall characteristics of the Sahel region?
The Sahel receives about 100 mm of rainfall per year, which is highly variable and concentrated in a single season lasting from 2 weeks to a few months. Drought has been a common feature for around 5000 years, with below-average years becoming more frequent since the mid-1970s.
What are some potential causes of droughts in the Sahel region?
Potential causes include global dimming due to air pollution affecting cloud properties and monsoons, changes in sea surface temperatures, and increases in greenhouse gases and aerosol particles causing a southward shift in rain belts.
How do environmental disasters affect Low Income Countries (LICs)?
Most environmental disasters occur in LICs where there is a lack of finances, technology, and resources to deal with such events effectively.
What challenges do refugees and IDPs from the Sahel region face?
Refugees and IDPs often move to other poverty-stricken areas within the region, which are already under strain. These new areas become degraded and unable to support the increasing population. International aid is often slow to arrive and generally inadequate to address the scale of the problem.
Define environemental refugee
A person who is forced to migrate due to a significant environmental disruption. They feel that if they do not move the end result may be death. They may be actual:
- refugees, if they are forced to cross international borders
- IDPs, if they remain in their own country.
How is family size generally defined, and how does it relate to the total fertility rate (TFR)?
Family size is typically considered to be two adults and their children. It can be approximated as the total fertility rate (TFR) plus 2. The TFR represents the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime.
What trends in family size are observed across different regions?
Family sizes are uniformly declining across regions. Asia Pacific has seen the fastest decline, while North America and Western Europe have decreased the least. The Middle East and Africa maintain the largest families (over 5 people) with a relatively slow decline rate.
What is replacement fertility and how does it vary?
Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate (TFR) needed to sustain population levels. It varies between regions due to differences in infant and female mortality rates. In high-income countries, it’s around 2, while in some African countries it can be as high as 3.3. The World Health Organization estimates a global mean replacement level of 2.1.
What is the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) and what does it indicate?
The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is the mean number of daughters a woman is likely to have. It considers the TFR, female mortality, and sex ratio at birth. An NRR of 1 indicates each woman replaces herself, achieving replacement level fertility. In countries with higher male birth rates, an NRR of 1 may not reach replacement level.
What are some key factors driving the decrease in family size?
Factors include: reduced need for children as “security” due to lower child mortality and pension systems, compulsory education making children a financial burden, increased worker mobility, availability of family planning and contraception, changing government policies, shifting societal values, and the changing status of women in education and employment.
How does women’s education impact family size?
When women have better access to formal education, they tend to marry later in life and have fewer, healthier children. This leads to a decrease in average family size. Education also opens up employment opportunities and financial independence for women, further influencing their reproductive choices.
What are some impacts of decreasing family size?
Impacts include: changes in demographic pyramid balance, potential future workforce shortages, challenges for economic growth and social services, shrinking tax base, reduced demand for goods and services, and potential closure or merging of schools and other public services.
How might smaller families positively impact workforce quality?
Smaller families may lead to better investment in fewer children, potentially resulting in a better-educated, more productive, and dynamic future workforce. This suggests a shift from quantity to quality in human capital development.
What role do single-parent families play in changing family sizes?
Single-parent families have become more common, with approximately one-third of all families being single-parent households. While this doesn’t necessarily mean lower fertility rates, it does result in smaller family units (by one person).
How did China’s One Child Policy affect family size?
China’s One Child Policy, implemented in 1979, significantly impacted family size. Prior to the policy in 1973, the average family size was just under 5 (4.81). By 2012, it had dropped to 3, demonstrating the policy’s substantial effect on reducing family size.
What was the impact of China’s One Child Policy on family size?
China’s One Child Policy, implemented in 1979, significantly reduced family size. In 1973, the average family size was just under 5 (4.81), but by 2012 it had dropped to 3. This demonstrates the policy’s substantial effect on reducing family size.
What is the natural human sex ratio at birth?
The natural sex ratio at birth ranges between 1.02 and 1.08 males per female, with a mean of around 1.06. This ratio appears consistent regardless of development level or ethnicity and reflects a slight natural bias toward male births.
How do sex ratios vary globally?
Globally, North Africa, the Middle East, and large parts of Asia have sex ratios above 1 (more men than women). Most other regions have more women than men or an even balance. The most extreme imbalance is in Qatar, where there are over two males for every female, while Eastern European countries like Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine have fewer than one male for every female.
What factors influence skewed sex ratios in certain countries?
Factors include sex-selective abortions enabled by ultrasound technology (e.g., China and India), economic stressors affecting male infant mortality, societal preference for male heirs, and discrimination against girls in healthcare and nutrition. In Middle Eastern countries like Qatar, reliance on male immigrant labor for construction also skews the ratio.
How did China’s One Child Policy affect the country’s sex ratio?
The policy led to a significant gender imbalance due to a cultural preference for male children. This resulted in practices such as sex-selective abortions, abandonment of baby girls, and infanticide. By the early 2020s, China’s population included roughly 3-4% more males than females.
How do sex ratios change with age?
In most countries, the sex ratio decreases with age as males experience higher mortality rates due to factors like cardiovascular disease, violence, risk-taking behaviors, and high-stress jobs. Females tend to live longer due to healthier lifestyles and lower mortality risks.
What are some historical impacts on regional sex ratios?
Events like World War II significantly lowered Europe’s sex ratio due to heavy male casualties. Economic recessions in North America also affected birth ratios and immigration patterns. These historical factors highlight how external events can influence demographic trends.
What are the consequences of skewed sex ratios in high-imbalance countries like Qatar?
High-imbalance countries often rely on male migrant laborers for industries like construction, which increases the male-to-female ratio sharply in working-age groups (15–49 years). This imbalance creates unique social dynamics but also reflects economic reliance on specific labor demographics.
Define sex ratio
Is the proportion of males to females in a given population from local scale (village) to national (country) or global scale.
Define ageing population
A population in which the median and mean age are high and increasing. It is generally attributed to falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy.
How does an aging population impact dependency ratios globally?
An aging population increases the old-age dependency ratio, which measures the number of individuals aged 65 and over per 100 working-age people (15–64 years). High dependency ratios place financial stress on the working population to support pensions, healthcare, and other services for the elderly.
Which regions have the highest and lowest proportions of elderly populations?
Europe and Japan have the highest proportions of elderly populations, with over 15% of their populations aged 65 or older. High-income countries like North America and Australasia have moderately high percentages (10–14%). In contrast, Africa, the Middle East, and parts of South America and Asia have the lowest proportions, with less than 5% of their populations being elderly.
What global trends are observed in median age from 1950 to 2050?
Since 1950, median ages have increased globally. Europe has seen a steady rise since 1950, while other continents began showing upward trends after 1970. LICs are experiencing rapid increases in median age as they progress through the Demographic Transition Model faster than HICs.
What are some advantages of an aging population?
Advantages include a large pool of healthy retirees contributing volunteer labor, cultural knowledge preservation, reduced costs for education and maternity care, disposable income among retirees supporting leisure industries, lower crime rates, and grandparents assisting with childcare. Aging populations also create job opportunities in elder care.
What are some disadvantages of an aging population?
Disadvantages include increased pension costs for governments, higher healthcare expenses due to chronic illnesses like diabetes and hypertension, pressure on job markets from delayed retirements, reduced workplace innovation, and slower economic growth due to a shrinking workforce.
Why is Japan considered a stereotypical example of an aging population?
Japan has one of the world’s highest proportions of elderly people (over 10% more than other HICs) due to low fertility rates below replacement level for over 40 years, fewer and later marriages, high life expectancy (83.7 years in 2015), and a strong focus on work with many women in the workforce.
How does an aging population affect economic productivity?
Aging populations reduce the working-age population, leading to labor shortages that stifle business growth and international competitiveness. Higher labor costs may result as businesses struggle to fill positions. Additionally, older workers may slow workplace innovation due to less adaptability to new technologies.
What challenges do governments face in managing aging populations?
Governments face challenges such as funding pensions without overburdening taxpayers, increasing healthcare infrastructure for chronic illnesses among the elderly, and balancing retirement age policies to maintain workforce size while addressing political resistance.
What are some key challenges governments face regarding aging populations?
Governments face challenges such as funding pensions without overburdening taxpayers, increasing healthcare infrastructure for chronic illnesses among the elderly, and balancing retirement age policies to maintain workforce size while addressing political resistance.
What is the main issue associated with sex ratios?
The real issue associated with sex ratios is gender inequality and how it impacts sex ratios. Natural fluctuations in sex ratios are generally not a cause for concern.
What is a common policy approach to address aging populations?
Many governments are pushing retirement age up. For example, the UK plans to increase retirement age to 68 by 2046, while Denmark is gradually increasing it to 67 by 2022 and plans further increases based on lifespan trends.
What are some advantages of raising the retirement age?
Advantages include longer periods of income tax payment, sustained consumer spending, delayed pension payments, increased labor supply (especially skilled labor), and higher tax revenue.
What is a potential drawback of increasing retirement age?
This policy is often unpopular, particularly with people approaching retirement age. There’s also a disparity between white-collar and blue-collar workers, as it’s more challenging for older blue-collar workers to continue physical labor.
What is the “means-tested pensions” policy and why is it considered risky?
Means-tested pensions provide government pensions only to low-income individuals without private pensions. It’s considered risky because it removes the incentive for people to save for retirement or take out private pensions.
What are some non-financial policies to address aging populations?
Non-financial policies include pro-natalist policies to increase fertility rates (e.g., in Japan), changing immigration laws to allow more foreign workers, and indirectly influencing fertility rates and life expectancy through various social policies.
How can retirement relocation impact certain areas?
When retirees relocate to specific areas, it can concentrate the advantages and disadvantages of aging populations in those locations. For example, Florida, USA, faces high healthcare costs and other age-care facility expenses for retirees who don’t work or pay taxes there.
What is the potential risk of increasing income tax to fund pensions?
Increasing income tax may drive workers out of the country, potentially causing a “brain drain” and further deteriorating the dependency ratio by reducing the number and quality of workers.
Why might policies that don’t rely on increasing fertility rates be more successful in the long term?
Policies that don’t focus on increasing fertility rates may be more successful because once the short-term problem of an aging population is addressed, the country can benefit from a more balanced population pyramid without facing future demographic challenges.
Define retirement age
The age at which an individual can stop work (retire) and receive all the benefits from their retirement plan/pension plan.
What is the retirement age and how does it vary globally?
Retirement ages differ between countries. Switzerland currently sets it at 65 for men and 64 for women (increasing to 65 by 2028). Australia is gradually increasing its retirement age to 67 by 2023, while the UK plans to raise it to 68 by 2046. Global retirement ages range from 55 in Sri Lanka to 67 in Greece and Ireland.
What are pro-natalist policies and their primary objectives?
Pro-natalist policies are government initiatives designed to increase fertility rates and family size to address aging population challenges. The primary objective is to balance demographic structures by ensuring a larger future workforce and improving dependency ratios. These policies aim to counteract declining birth rates through various financial and social incentives.
What types of incentives do governments use in pro-natalist policies?
Governments offer various incentives including cash bonuses for children, tax reductions for larger families, paid parental leave, subsidized childcare, free education, housing assistance, and public transport benefits. Countries like France, Singapore, and Sweden have implemented comprehensive packages to encourage higher birth rates.
Why are pro-natalist policies often considered ineffective?
Pro-natalist policies often fail because financial incentives are insufficient to persuade women to abandon career opportunities. Women’s ability to choose career timing and family planning is more significant. Modern women tend to prioritize professional development, delaying or limiting childbirth despite government incentives.
What are anti-natalist policies and how do they differ from pro-natalist approaches?
Anti-natalist policies aim to reduce population growth through methods like education about family planning, providing contraception, implementing financial disincentives for large families, and promoting women’s education and workforce participation. Unlike pro-natalist policies, these approaches have historically been more effective in reducing fertility rates.
How does women’s emancipation impact fertility rates?
Women’s emancipation significantly reduces fertility rates by enabling women to control their reproductive choices. Increased education and workforce participation lead to delayed marriage and childbirth, reduced family sizes, and prioritization of professional development over traditional family structures.
What were the key features of China’s One Child Policy?
China’s One Child Policy included strong disincentives such as increased taxes for families with multiple children, charges for education and healthcare for extra children, and removal of childcare facilities. The policy was strict, with significant social consequences like selective abortions and the “Little Emperor” syndrome.
What challenges do anti-natalist policies face in implementation?
Anti-natalist policies often conflict with traditional cultural and religious values, particularly in low-income countries where large families are considered normal and male children are viewed as a sign of virility. These deeply ingrained beliefs can slow the reduction of crude birth rates.
What are the long-term consequences of successful anti-natalist policies?
Successful anti-natalist policies eventually reduce working-age populations after 15-20 years. Reduced birth rates combined with improved healthcare can lead to aging populations, potentially creating new demographic challenges for governments.
How do governments raise awareness about population management?
Governments use methods like educating populations about high birth rate impacts, conducting family planning campaigns, providing free contraceptives, offering family planning services, and promoting the benefits of smaller families through various communication strategies.
Define pro-natalist policy
A governmental strategy that encourages higher fertility rates.
Define anti-natalist policy
A governmental strategy that aims to control population growth by reducing the fertility rate and limiting the number of children that are born.
What does the Global Gender Gap Report measure?
The Global Gender Gap Report, conducted by the World Economic Forum since 2006, measures gender differences in four key areas: health, education, economic participation, and political empowerment.
Which countries rank highest in closing the gender gap?
As of 2015, the top five countries in closing the gender gap were Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Ireland. These are all located in Northern Europe.
What does the Global Gender Gap Index score indicate?
The Global Gender Gap Index uses a scale from 0 to 1, where 1 indicates total equality between genders and 0 indicates maximum inequality. The closer a country’s score is to 1, the smaller its gender gap.
In which areas has the most progress been made in closing the gender gap globally?
According to the Global Gender Gap Report, the largest gains have been made in political empowerment, though this area still shows significant inequality. Equality is closest in education and health.
What are the two composite indicators used by the UN Development Programme to measure the gender gap?
The UN Development Programme uses the Gender Inequality Index and the Gender Development Index to measure gender gaps globally.
How does the gender gap manifest in the world of work?
While men have higher labor force participation and employment rates, women do the majority of global “work” when unpaid care work is included. Women on average do more unpaid care work, such as looking after children and elderly relatives.
How does the gender gap in education vary across different levels of human development?
Countries with high or very high human development tend to have less of an education gender imbalance compared to countries with middle and low human development. This is often linked to culturally imposed gender roles in many low-income countries.
What surprising trend does the report reveal about women’s annual pay?
As of 2015, women were only earning what men earned in 2006, indicating a significant lag in pay equity despite increases in women’s annual pay.
What mismatch does the report highlight regarding women’s education and employment?
While parity has been achieved in tertiary (university) enrollment for education, there is still a significant gap in skilled worker positions and leadership roles for women.
Why is it important to note that the Global Gender Gap Report measures inequalities, not quality of life?
Countries that rank low on gender equality, such as Saudi Arabia and Japan, may still offer a decent quality of life overall. The report focuses on the differences between men and women on statistical indicators, not the absolute level of development or quality of life.
According to Nicholas D. Kristof, what is the paramount moral challenge of this century?
The struggle for gender equality around the world is considered the paramount moral challenge of this century, comparable in importance to the fight against slavery in the 19th century and totalitarianism in the 20th century.
How does achieving gender equality impact overall quality of life?
Empowering women by improving their social, economic, and political rights enhances the quality of life for all people, not just addressing gender inequality but inequality in general.
What role does education play in women’s empowerment?
Education is a key element of empowerment, helping to prevent early marriage, reduce child and maternal mortality, and boost earning power. Global primary school enrollment increased from 72% in 1970 to nearly 90% by 2014.
What is the global wage gap between men and women?
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the mean wage gap worldwide is between 10 and 20%, with women earning 10-20% less than men. In some countries, this gap can be as high as 35%.
How did the UN address gender equality in its development goals?
The UN included gender equality in both the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG Goal 5 specifically aims to “Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls” with nine targets.
What policies in Scandinavian countries have helped improve women’s economic participation?
Scandinavian countries have implemented policies like extensive parental leave that allow women to combine work and family. For example, Sweden offers 480 days of paid parental leave for both parents, enabling women to balance career and parenthood.
How has Rwanda improved its gender equality, particularly in health?
Since 2000, Rwanda has decreased both maternal and child mortality by more than 70% through measures such as increasing skilled health providers, implementing universal healthcare at the community level, promoting family planning, and improving child immunizations.
Why is ending child marriage considered crucial for gender equality?
Child marriage is fundamentally connected to other gender inequalities and development issues. It impacts girls’ school enrollment, fertility rates, gender-based violence, and labor participation, reflecting the low status of women in certain countries.
How has the ‘Muslim world’ progressed in closing the gender gap in education?
Many Muslim countries have seen rapid improvements in female education. University enrollment ratios for women in countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are now higher than in China, India, and Mexico, with changes occurring in less than a decade.
What are some solutions proposed to close the gender gap?
Solutions include setting gender quotas for managerial and political positions, empowering women in decision-making roles, implementing mentorship programs, offering tax incentives for companies closing the gap, providing parental leave, legislating against child marriage, improving healthcare access, and enhancing communication on gender parity in all areas of development.
Define human trafficking
The illegal transportation and/or exploitation of people or human parts. It may take place where the person lives or may involve relocation within the country or across national borders. It is usually for the purposes of forced labour or sexual exploitation. It does not include people smuggling, where the person moves willingly but through illegal means.
What are the major source countries for human trafficking according to Figure 1?
The major source countries for human trafficking are Nigeria, Russia, Eastern Europe, China, Thailand, and Malaysia.
Which countries are major destinations for human trafficking victims?
Major destination countries include the USA, parts of north-west Europe, Japan, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.
What are the four main types of human trafficking activities?
The four main types are: 1) forced labour (modern-day slavery), 2) sexual slavery or commercial exploitation, 3) forced marriage, and 4) extraction of organs such as kidneys and/or tissue.
How does bonded labour differ from forced labour?
Bonded labour involves working to repay a debt under unclear and unfair conditions, while forced labour involves working under threat of violence to oneself or family.
According to the International Labour Organization in 2014, how much profit did forced labour generate?
In 2014, forced labour generated US$150 billion in profit.
What are the three protocols under the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC)?
1) Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, 2) Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air, and 3) Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, their Parts and Components and Ammunition.
What are the main activities of the UNODC’s Global Programme against Trafficking in Persons?
The UNODC offers help drafting national laws and anti-trafficking strategies, provides resources to develop local expertise, and creates practical tools for cross-border cooperation in fighting human trafficking.
How does the UNODC work to achieve its goals in combating human trafficking?
The UNODC conducts research and raises awareness through biannual global reports and the Blue Heart Campaign, promotes protocols and builds capacity by supporting member states, and strengthens partnerships through inter-agency groups.
What percentage of human trafficking victims were trapped in forced labour according to 2012 data?
According to 2012 data, 68% of human trafficking victims were trapped in forced labour situations, such as working in factories.
Why is human trafficking considered a transnational problem?
Human trafficking is considered a transnational problem because it often involves the movement of people across borders and requires cross-border cooperation to combat effectively.
Define demographic dividend
The accelerated economic growth potential that may result from a very favourable dependency ratio supported by human resource investment.
What is the demographic dividend?
The demographic dividend is the result of a shift in a population’s age structure where there are more people in the working-age groups (15–64 years) than in the non-working ages (under 15 and over 64 years), leading to a dependency ratio below 100.
What are the main benefits of the demographic dividend?
Benefits include: larger labor supply, increased women in workforce, more disposable income, greater tax revenue, lower government expenditure on dependents, and improved health of human capital.
How does the demographic dividend appear in a population pyramid?
It appears as a bulge in particular age groups that passes up through the population pyramid, starting with a narrowing base (fewer young dependents) and a bulge in working-age groups.
What is the primary precursor for achieving a demographic dividend?
The single most important precursor is a drop in fertility rates, which decreases youthful dependency and allows for investment in development and the economy.
How does gender equality contribute to the demographic dividend?
Improving gender equality helps achieve a drop in fertility rates by empowering women through education, access to family planning, land rights, and credit, which in turn affects family size and workforce participation.
Why is education important for capitalizing on the demographic dividend?
Education creates a skilled workforce necessary to drive economic growth. It’s especially important for girls, as it tends to lead to later marriage, delayed childbearing, and increased workforce participation.
What economic policies can help maximize the demographic dividend?
Policies that create jobs and facilitate economic growth, such as attracting foreign investment, removing trade barriers, setting minimum wages, and providing microfinance opportunities in rural areas.
What is the “demographic tax” that follows the demographic dividend?
The demographic tax occurs when the beneficial bulge of workers ages, leading to an increasing elderly population and decreasing numbers of workers, potentially causing population decline.
How can health investments contribute to the demographic dividend?
Investing in healthcare decreases child mortality and provides family planning services, both of which help reduce fertility rates. It also ensures a healthier, more productive workforce.
What potential problems can arise from the demographic dividend?
Problems can include rapid social changes leading to increased divorce rates and single-parent families, as well as rising unemployment if job supply doesn’t meet demand, potentially causing social unrest.
What potential social problems can arise from the demographic dividend?
Rapid social changes may lead to increased divorce rates and more single-parent families. Rising unemployment can occur if job supply doesn’t meet demand, potentially causing social unrest.
How did Thailand’s National Family Planning Program help reduce fertility rates?
The program offered free contraception, extensive awareness campaigns, widely available family planning services including vasectomies and contraceptive injections, and creative approaches like offering free vasectomies on the King’s birthday.
What investments did Thailand make to capitalize on its demographic shift?
Thailand invested in education and healthcare. This led to improvements in literacy rates and life expectancy between 1998 and 2009.
How has Thailand improved education for females?
Thailand extended compulsory education to 7 years in 1960, made provisions for disabled children, implemented 5-year education improvement plans, developed a new national curriculum, and introduced computers and native language teachers in schools.
What makes Thailand a regional leader in healthcare reform?
Thailand provides subsidized healthcare for the entire population, with 99.5% coverage according to the World Bank. By 2008, 96% of the population had access to sanitation facilities and 98% to improved water supplies.
How has Thailand addressed gender equality?
Thailand has been active in gender equality policies since 1961, participating in UN World Conferences on Women, establishing national committees for women’s development, and joining the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW).
What economic progress has Thailand made?
Thailand has experienced remarkable economic growth, reducing poverty and attracting large amounts of foreign direct investment. The economy grew at 7.5% annually in the 1980s and 1990s, though growth has slowed to 3.5% by 2015.
What recent economic reforms has Thailand implemented?
Thailand has implemented a 20-year strategic plan including improvements to public infrastructure, overhaul of state-owned enterprises, changes to inheritance and property taxes, and establishment of national savings funds for retirement.
How has Thailand’s openness to trade affected its economy?
Thailand’s openness has attracted large amounts of foreign direct investment. The country has various trading agreements that reduce trade barriers and allow import of raw materials to drive manufacturing industries.
How did Thailand’s population structure change by 2015, and what was its impact?
By 2015, the bulge in Thailand’s population had moved up to the 20–59-year age groups, squarely within the workforce. With small proportions at the bottom and top of the pyramid, this created a very favorable dependency ratio, highly beneficial for the country’s demographic dividend.
