Changing population Flashcards
Define population distribution
The spatial pattern of where people live.
Define population density
The number of people in a given area. This is usually given in people/km2.
How is the global population distributed?
The global population is very unevenly distributed.
What are the reasons that the global population is very unevenly distributed?
This uneven distribution is the result of both physical and human factors.
What should be noted about physical factors?
Physical factors impact each other, and rarely operate in isolation when considering the impact they have on population distribution. For example, climate impacts both soils and vegetation.
What should be noted about human factors?
Human factors are similarly interconnected so often work together. For example, employment opportunities are linked to accessibility.
What should be noted about physical and human factors?
Physical factors affect human factors. For example, climate determines agricultural opportunities.
Why might physical factors be considered the most important factors affect human population distribution?
Physical factors may be considered the most important factors affecting human population distribution, as they often determine where it is actually possible to live.
Why do physical factors no longer determine human population distribution to such a large extent these days?
In the past this was certainly true, but as technology has advanced many of the constraints imposed by physical factors have been overcome. For example, in modern society we can now have water piped to our houses so we do not have to live near a river or well.
What is the present-day global population distribution largely do too?
The present-day global population distribution has largely been determined by the historical effects of physical factors and the inertia that made it ‘too much effort’ to move.
What are the two types of impacts of climate on population distribution?
- Direct, through the temperature and precipitation totals and patterns; for example, population density is very low in deserts as it is too hot and dry
- Indirect, through the impact it has on soils and vegetation; for example, the tropical rainforest is hot and humid which creates very dense vegetation, making human settlement difficult.
What type of climates are more desirable for human habitation?
Temperate climates are more desirable for human habitation.
What is a temperate climate?
Moderate amounts of rainfall and the absence of extreme temperatures create easier living conditions and favour agriculture.
What do areas with extremes of temperature, precipitation or humidity due to settlements?
Areas with extremes of temperature, precipitation or humidity deters settlement.
How do areas with high temperatures deter settlements?
Areas with very high temperatures inhibit agriculture, especially if coupled with lack of precipitation. They can also cause health issues for humans, for example heat stroke and dehydration.
How do areas with low temperatures deter settlements?
Areas with very low temperatures inhibit agriculture, make construction of homes and infrastructure difficult and restrict outdoor activities. For example, Arctic regions suffer from permafrost which makes agriculture difficult.
How do areas with high humidity deter settlements?
Areas with high humidity, for example the Amazon Basin, are unpleasant for many people and humidity is often associated with disease vectors including mosquitoes.
What is an example of how technology has helped humans bypass a restriction posed by climate?
Air conditioning makes it possible to live in areas with high temperatures, and triple glazing and efficient heating systems make living in areas of with very low temperatures possible.
What are all the factors that determine population density?
- Climate
- Relief, altitude and latitude
- Water supply
- Natural resources
- Soils
What problems do steep slopes cause?
- Limit the effective use of agricultural machinery
- Have thin soils, further limiting agriculture
- Inhibit the use of machinery and cause difficulties in the construction of houses and transportation routes
Altitudes above how many metres are not favorable for human habitation?
Altitudes above 5,000 metres are not favourable for human habitation.
Why are altitudes above 5,000 metres not favorable for human habitation?
Because the low oxygen content of the air causes physiological problems, such as altitude sickness, for many people.
What percentage of the global population lives at less than 200 metres above sea level?
Because of the physiological problems that low oxygen content can cause over half of the global population lives at elevations less than 200 metres above sea level.
Why is rising sea levels due to climate change such a concern?
Because over half of the global population lives at elevation less than 200 metres.
Based on the fact that over half of the global population lives at elevations of less than 200 metres, what can we logically assume that the most favourable location for human settlement?
It is therefore logical to assume that the most favourable location for human settlement is low-lying flat areas.
Why are low-lying flat areas not always the most favorable for human settlement?
Low-lying flat areas are ideal for building and farming. However, latitude impacts climate. In low-latitude tropical areas, the climate is often hot and humid, making it less favorable for settlement. Instead, settlements in these regions are more likely to be located on flat plateau areas at higher elevations, where temperatures are cooler
What is unique about La Paz, Bolivia in terms of settlement location?
La Paz is the highest city in the world, located at 3,640 meters above sea level in the Andes. Its high altitude provides cooler temperatures compared to lower tropical areas, and the flat plateau makes construction possible. Without this flat land, La Paz may not have been established at its current location.
Why are higher latitudes less favorable for settlement as elevation increases?
In higher latitudes, an increase in elevation causes a significant drop in temperature, making these areas less favorable for human settlement compared to low-latitude plateaus.
Why is an adequate fresh water supply essential for human settlements?
Fresh water is necessary for domestic use, agriculture, and industrial activities. Settlements often form near reliable water sources such as rivers, lakes, aquifers, or regions with adequate rainfall.
How does the River Nile influence population distribution in Egypt?
The majority of Egypt’s population (approximately 95%) lives along the River Nile or its delta. This region supports population densities exceeding 1,000 people/km² outside of cities due to its reliable water supply and fertile soils.
What is an example of an aquifer that supports human settlement?
The Great Artesian Basin in Australia provides underground water to Queensland, the Northern Territory, New South Wales, and South Australia. This aquifer supports settlements in otherwise arid regions.
How did coal deposits influence population patterns in Western Europe during the 19th and early 20th centuries?
Large coal deposits fueled industrial growth during this period. This led to the development of densely populated conurbations as people moved to industrial areas for employment opportunities
What makes La Rinconada in Peru an example of a settlement influenced by natural resources?
La Rinconada is a gold-mining town located over 5,000 meters above sea level in the Peruvian Alps. Despite being inhospitable (lacking running water), it has a population of 50,000 due to the economic viability of gold mining. However, if gold prices fall too far, it risks becoming a ghost town.
How can scenery influence settlement patterns?
Scenic areas can attract seasonal populations. For example, resort towns often experience a population surge during tourist seasons but may see significant declines during off-seasons.
How do fertile soils impact population density? Provide examples.
Fertile soils enable successful agriculture and support high population densities. For example:
- The Nile Valley and Delta support densities exceeding 1,000 people/km² outside cities due to fertile soils enriched by annual flooding.
- Volcanic soils around Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania support rich coffee and sugar plantations.
Why are volcanic soils important for agriculture? Provide an example.
Volcanic soils are naturally rich in nutrients and highly fertile. Around Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, volcanic soils support coffee and sugar plantations that contribute significantly to local agriculture.
What happens in areas with thin or infertile soils? Can technology help overcome these challenges?
Areas with thin, leached, or infertile soils tend to have much lower population densities because they cannot support large-scale agriculture easily. While modern technology can improve poor soil conditions (e.g., through fertilizers or irrigation), there is no true substitute for naturally deep and fertile soils. This set of flashcards ensures that all key points are covered with detailed examples like the River Nile’s population density figures (exceeding 1,000 people/km²), La Paz’s altitude (3,640 meters), and La Rinconada’s unique challenges (gold mining at over 5,000 meters).
How do human factors influence global population distribution compared to physical factors?
Human factors are responsible for finer details and smaller-scale distribution within larger areas determined by physical factors. While physical factors determine where it’s easier to live, build, and move, human factors determine where population concentrates within these habitable areas.
How do employment opportunities impact population distribution in agricultural societies?
In agricultural societies:
- Population is relatively low and evenly distributed (depending on physical factors)
- People make a living from the land, growing food for themselves with some surplus for trading
- This pattern was seen in Europe until the early to mid-19th century
- Many Less Industrialized Countries (LICs) today, like Sierra Leone, still follow this pattern
How does industrialization affect population distribution?
As technology advances and agriculture becomes mechanized:
- Fewer people are needed on the land
- Growing industries in cities attract people to secondary sector jobs
- Populations grow and concentrate in major urban areas
- This was seen in north-western Europe in the mid-19th century
- Thailand is a modern example of this stage
How does the shift to tertiary industries impact population distribution?
With continued technological advances:
- Fewer people are needed in traditional industries
- There’s a shift to tertiary (service) industries
- Some people remain in cities but move to suburbs
- Others leave cities and move back to rural areas
- Australia is an example of this stage
- Advances in computers and internet facilitate this shift
What is the ‘snowball effect’ in population distribution?
The ‘snowball effect’ or positive feedback cycle in population distribution means:
- Once an area attracts population growth (initially based on a physical advantage)
- It will continue to grow through positive feedback
- This is partly due to humans being social and preferring to live close to each other
- Economic factors work in a circular fashion, reinforcing population concentration
How do coastal areas influence population distribution?
According to UNEP, about half the world’s population lives within 60 km of the coast due to:
- Concentrated communications and transport links
- Fishing opportunities for early settlers
- Export and import opportunities
- Flat coastal plains good for transport and construction
How can government policies impact population distribution?
Government policies can significantly impact population distribution:
- China: Set population limits for Beijing (23 million) and Shanghai (25 million) by 2020
- Former USSR: Established settlements on Siberian Plateau for mining
- UK: New Towns Act (1946) relocated populations to ‘overspill towns’ like Stevenage, Telford, and Milton Keynes
- Tanzania and Brazil: Moved capital cities (Dodoma and Brasília) to decentralize population
How do wars affect population distribution?
Wars cause significant population relocation:
- Example: Syrian conflict (2011-2015)
- Over 4 million people fled Syria
- Additional 7.5 million people internally displaced
- Significant effects on regional population distribution
How does history influence population density?
Duration of settlement impacts population density:
- Areas with long history of settlement tend to be more densely populated
- Exceptions exist, like the ancient Mayan civilization that disappeared into Central American jungles
What is development in the context of geography?
- Development is the process of growth, improvement, changing or becoming more advanced
- It refers to moving forwards, specifically applied to countries
- It’s a broad concept involving overall improvement in quality of life and living standards
- It’s not just about money, but encompasses economic and social progress
What are the two main economic indicators used to measure income in development?
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Total value of goods and services produced within a country in a given period
- Gross National Income (GNI): Total value of goods and services produced within a country, plus income and payments from abroad (e.g. remittances)
How does GNI differ from GDP, and why do many social scientists prefer it?
- GNI accounts for economic transactions with other countries, in addition to income from within the country
- GDP only provides the economic picture within a country
- GNI is preferred because most economies are global, so it makes sense to account for international transactions
What are the three ways GDP and GNI are typically reported?
- Total GDP or GNI for the whole country
- Per capita measurements (total income divided by population)
- Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which accounts for cost of living based on a basket of consumer goods
What does the example of Indonesia reveal about the limitations of GNI as an economic indicator?
- Indonesia ranks 9th globally for GNI (PPP) according to World Bank 2014
- This high ranking fails to account for Indonesia’s high population and income inequality
- Most of the national income is concentrated in the hands of a small proportion of very rich people
What is a significant problem with using GNI and GDP as economic indicators in certain countries?
- They only account for the formal economy, excluding income from the informal economy
- In some countries (e.g., parts of West Africa, South America, India), the informal economy can account for 30-50% of GDP
- This raises questions about the validity of GNI or GDP as indicators in these countries
Why might development be more effectively measured through social indicators rather than economic ones?
- Economic growth does not necessarily equate to quality of life
- Social indicators like education and health can provide a more comprehensive picture of development
- These indicators can better reflect overall improvements in living standards and well-being
What did Hans Rosling’s TED talk demonstrate about economic development?
- It showed the links between two key components of economic development: income in US dollars and lifespan in years
- The video used data visualization to illustrate the relationship between economic growth and quality of life indicators
How does Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjust economic indicators?
- PPP accounts for cost of living, based on the cost of a basket of consumer goods
- It’s not based on currency exchange rates
- PPP generally reduces High Income Country (HIC) values and increases Low Income Country (LIC) values due to differences in cost of living
What are some criticisms of using GDP and GNI as development indicators?
- They fail to account for income inequality within countries
- They report averages, which don’t show the range of incomes
- They don’t include the informal economy, which can be significant in some countries
- They don’t directly measure quality of life or social progress
What are the classifications of countries based on GNI per capita according to the World Bank as of 2019?
- Low-Income Countries (LICs): GNI per capita of $995 or less
- Lower Middle-Income Countries: GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895
- Upper Middle-Income Countries: GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055
- High-Income Countries (HICs): GNI per capita of $12,056 or more
What are the BRICS countries and what is their significance?
- BRICS Countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
- Significance: These countries are considered emerging economies with rapidly advancing national economies. They represent a significant portion of global GDP and trade.
What are some other emerging economies close to the BRICS?
Other emerging economies include Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Turkey.
Compare GNI per capita (PPP) for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada.
- Tanzania (LIC): $2,630
- Brazil (Middle-Income Emerging): $15,050
- Canada (HIC): $44,010
What are the Human Development Index (HDI) ranks and indices for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 151st rank, HDI index of 0.521
- Brazil: 75th rank, HDI index of 0.755
- Canada: 9th rank, HDI index of 0.913
What are the crude birth rates for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 36.0 births/1000/year
- Brazil: 14.3 births/1000/year
- Canada: 10.3 births/1000/year
Compare life expectancy in years for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada.
- Tanzania: 62.2 years
- Brazil: 73.8 years
- Canada: 81.9 years
What is the infant mortality rate for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 41.2 deaths under 1 year/1000 live births/year
- Brazil: 18.0 deaths under 1 year/1000 live births/year
- Canada: 4.6 deaths under 1 year/1000 live births/year
What are the adult literacy rates for Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada?
- Tanzania: 67.8%
- Brazil: 90.4%
- Canada: 99.0%
What environmental issues do Tanzania, Brazil, and Canada face?
Tanzania: Soil degradation, deforestation, desertification, destruction of coral reefs and marine habitats.
Brazil: Deforestation, illegal wildlife trade, air and water pollution.
Canada: Water pollution from agricultural and industrial activities; emissions affecting agricultural productivity.
What are the main reasons for voluntary internal migration and what does it lead to?
Voluntary internal migration occurs for several reasons. Social reasons include better living conditions, which can encompass access to more services, improved health care, and enhanced educational opportunities. Economic reasons often involve the pursuit of higher wages and better job opportunities. This type of migration leads to significant redistribution of the population on a national scale, increasing the disparity between core and periphery regions. People typically leave disadvantaged rural areas to migrate to urban centers, resulting in rural-to-urban migration and movement from smaller towns to larger cities.
What are the characteristics of the core in the core-periphery model?
The core is characterized by being a well-developed and prosperous area with a strong economic base primarily in secondary and tertiary industries. It offers a wide range of services including health care, education, communications, and technology. The core has a robust infrastructure with reliable electricity, gas, and water supplies. High literacy rates and skill levels contribute to plentiful, well-paid job opportunities. Additionally, the core serves as a center for decision-making, scientific innovation, and economic growth, exporting manufactured goods and services to other regions. It may also distribute wealth to promote development in other areas and has experienced significant voluntary in-migration leading to the development of megacities.
What are the characteristics of the periphery in the core-periphery model?
The periphery is less developed, exhibiting lower standards of living and higher levels of poverty. Access to markets is limited due to its peripheral location and less extensive transport links. Services are insufficient, with limited access to potable water, health care, electricity, and education. Population growth tends to be higher as children are viewed as economic assets for subsistence farmers. The lack of job opportunities drives out-migration as individuals seek better prospects in urban areas of the core. Resources from the periphery often flow to the core to support industrial growth, resulting in lower levels of literacy and skills in peripheral regions.
How is global wealth distributed according to the Lorenz curve?
The Lorenz curve illustrates that 10% of the global population holds nearly 50% of total global wealth. In contrast, approximately 50% of the population possesses only about 8-9% of the world’s income. This stark inequality highlights the significant economic divide between different segments of society.
What are China’s megacities and their populations?
China is home to seven megacities, defined as cities with populations exceeding 10 million. Among these, three rank among the global top 20: Shanghai has a population of approximately 23.41 million; Beijing has around 21 million; and Guangzhou Foshan has about 20.5 million residents. These megacities have largely emerged due to in-migration from economically depressed rural areas.
How does the core-periphery model apply specifically to China?
In China, the core region is located in the southeast where population densities are highest due to favorable physical and human factors. This area features major coastal cities such as Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai with significant ports that facilitate trade. The core benefits from mineral deposits and superior infrastructure that ensure rapid economic growth along with significant in-migration. Conversely, the periphery is situated in northern regions and continental interiors where physical constraints limit development. These areas typically have poor accessibility, limited transport links, an agriculture-based economy with minimal mechanization, significant out-migration trends, and no major cities
What strategy has China implemented to address imbalances between core and periphery regions?
China has initiated “The Western Region Development Plan,” which is a dual strategy aimed at addressing disparities between core and peripheral areas. The first stage began in 1990 and was extended in 2010. This plan focuses on boosting economic growth in western regions while raising living standards and enhancing environmental conservation efforts over a ten-year period. It includes tax reductions and lower prices for industrial land aimed at stimulating development in these areas while alleviating pressure on overcrowded megacities like Beijing and Shanghai.
How does Australia’s population distribution appear at different scales?
At a global scale, Australia’s population distribution appears sparse with only two notable areas highlighted in the southeast: the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Victoria. When viewed at a national scale, it becomes evident that Australia’s population is predominantly concentrated along its coastlines due to favorable physical factors such as climate and accessibility to resources. At a regional scale focusing on Victoria specifically, population density patterns reveal that human factors such as employment opportunities also play a crucial role alongside physical characteristics.
How do physical and human factors influence population distribution?
Physical factors such as climate and terrain historically determined general patterns of population distribution across countries; however, their influence has diminished over time due to technological advancements that allow us to overcome many natural barriers (e.g., building on steep slopes or settling in colder regions). Currently, human factors—such as employment opportunities, accessibility to services, infrastructure development, and urban planning—play an increasingly significant role in shaping finer details of population distribution patterns.
What is the core-periphery model and who developed it?
The core-periphery model was developed by John Friedmann in 1963 with the purpose of identifying and explaining spatial differences within economies. This model can be applied at various scales including global, national, or local contexts (such as towns or cities). It divides regions into ‘core’ (developed) areas that experience growth due to economic advantages and ‘periphery’ (less developed) areas that often face challenges related to poverty and limited access to resources.
What is China’s economic status and development indicators?
China is classified as a middle-income emerging economy, specifically the ‘C’ in the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The country has a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of US$14,390 when adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). On the Human Development Index (HDI), China ranks 90th globally, indicating a moderate level of human development with significant potential for economic growth and social advancement
What are the primary physical factors influencing population distribution in China?
China’s population distribution is dramatically influenced by multiple physical factors:
Climate Factors:
- Eastern regions feature equable climates with long warm summers and short cold winters
- Far northeast experiences harsh climates with extended severe winters
- Humid subtropical regions are less comfortable for human settlement
Geographical Factors:
- Eastern areas characterized by low hills and coastal plains
- Central and western regions dominated by high steep mountains, Tibetan Plateau, and interior deserts
- Significant variations in latitude and altitude create diverse living conditions
Water Supply Considerations:
- Eastern regions benefit from plentiful rainfall and dense river networks
- Continental interior suffers from minimal rainfall and limited water resources
- The population density line in the south follows major river courses
Natural Resource Distribution:
- Extensive deposits of fuel, electric power, minerals, and metals concentrated in eastern regions
- Northwest areas have specific fuel deposits attracting localized population clusters
- Varied soil quality and agricultural potential significantly impact settlement patterns
How do human factors contribute to China’s population distribution?
Human factors play a crucial role in shaping China’s population distribution:
Industrial Development:
- Mineral resources in eastern and southeastern regions support extensive industrial growth
- Growing industrial sectors create substantial employment opportunities
- Shifting employment structure from traditional industries to service sectors
- Labor-intensive service industries like banking attract increasing population numbers
Technological and Infrastructure Developments:
- Low hills and coastal plains offer excellent communication networks
- Numerous sea and river ports facilitate trade
- High-speed train connections link major cities
- Improved accessibility encourages population concentration
Historical Influences:
- Long-standing trade history dating back to Han Dynasty (207 BC to 220 AD)
- Silk Road trading routes created linear population concentration patterns
- Historical trade networks continue to influence modern settlement patterns
Government Policies:
- Active governmental strategies to restrict megacity growth
- Population redistribution policies implemented
- Efforts to manage urban expansion and population density
Economic Transformation:
- Rapid transition from traditional to service-based economy
- Increasing urbanization
- Shift in employment opportunities driving population movements
What are the specific characteristics of China’s population distribution?
Numerical Overview:
- Total population: 1,373,541,278 (as of data point)
- Extremely uneven geographical distribution
- Approximately 74% of rural population within 60-minute driving distance from cities
Density Variations:
- Eastern regions: High-density areas exceeding 200 persons/km²
- Western regions: Extremely low densities, often below 25 persons/km²
- Some interior areas completely uninhabited
Key High-Density Regions:
- North China Plain
- Yangtze River Delta
- Pearl River Delta
- Sichuan Basin
Low-Density Regions:
- Inner Mongolia Plateau
- Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
- Northwestern arid regions
Urbanization Trends:
- Continuous rural-to-urban migration
- Growth of megacities like Shanghai and Beijing
- Persistent concentration of population in eastern regions despite economic changes
What significant variations exist in global population trends among different regions?
Global population trends reveal notable variations: some regions, such as parts of Europe and Asia, are experiencing shrinking populations. In contrast, regions like Africa and South Asia have expanding populations, while others maintain stable population levels. These trends collectively shape the overall global population dynamics.
How has the human population grown over the past century?
The human population has experienced unprecedented growth in the last century. It reached its first billion in approximately 1804, coinciding with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Since then, the time taken to reach each subsequent billion milestone has decreased significantly.
What are the key milestones in human population growth and their corresponding years?
The milestones in human population growth are as follows:
- 1 billion: reached in 1804 (all of human history up to that point)
- 2 billion: reached in 1927 (took 123 years)
- 3 billion: reached in 1959 (took 32 years)
- 4 billion: reached in 1974 (took 15 years)
- 5 billion: reached in 1987 (took 13 years)
- 6 billion: reached in 1999 (took 12 years)
- 7 billion: reached in 2012 (took 13 years)
What does the term “exponential growth” refer to in the context of human population?
Exponential growth refers to a rapid increase in population size over time. This phenomenon is illustrated by the decreasing time intervals between each billion milestone. Although human population continues to grow, the growth rate—the speed at which this growth occurs—has been declining over recent years.
What is “population momentum,” and how does it affect future growth?
Population momentum is a phenomenon where a population continues to grow even after fertility rates decline. This occurs because a significant proportion of the population is within childbearing age (typically ages 20–35). As long as there are many young adults, there will be higher birth rates, contributing to ongoing population growth despite a declining growth rate.
What is the current trend regarding global population growth rates?
While the global human population is still growing, the rate of that growth has been declining for several years. Despite this decline, projections indicate that the global population will continue to increase until at least 2050 and possibly beyond due to factors such as population momentum
How can statistical data help understand global populations?
Statistical data provide insights into patterns and trends within human populations worldwide. They can reveal what is considered ‘most typical’ among populations, helping researchers and policymakers interpret demographic statistics effectively. This data-driven approach aids in understanding societal changes and planning for future needs.
Define population momentum
The continued growth of a population even after fertility rates are down to replacement level.
What are population projections and what challenges do they face?
Population projections are educated estimates about future population growth, primarily based on anticipated fertility levels. However, these projections are problematic due to the unpredictability of fertility rates over time. It is challenging to accurately predict fertility rates even for the next decade, let alone a century into the future. Additionally, population change is not uniform across the globe; each country has unique demographic characteristics that complicate global predictions.
How do fertility rates vary between countries, and why does this affect population projections?
Fertility rates can vary dramatically between countries, which poses a significant challenge for making accurate global population projections. For instance, in 2014, South Korea had the lowest total fertility rate at 1.2 births per woman, while Niger had the highest at 7.6 births per woman. This discrepancy makes it difficult to project future population growth accurately because different countries will experience different demographic trends based on their unique social, economic, and cultural contexts.
What changes have been made to UN population projections since 2012?
Up until 2012, the UN projected that the global population would level off at around 9 billion people between 2050 and 2100. However, this projection has been adjusted based on new methodologies of probabilistic modeling and updated fertility data. The current projections estimate that the global population will reach approximately 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. These adjustments reflect a recognition that fertility rates are not declining as rapidly as previously anticipated, particularly in high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
What regions are expected to experience the majority of future population growth?
The majority of future population growth is expected to occur in Africa and Asia. Projections indicate that India will surpass China as the most populous country before the end of this period. In contrast, many other world regions have already stabilized or are experiencing leveling off in their populations. This uneven distribution of growth raises significant challenges for countries that are already facing issues such as poverty and resource scarcity.
How does life expectancy influence future population growth?
Current trends in life expectancy significantly impact future population growth projections. Over the next century, the average global lifespan is expected to increase from age 70 to age 83. This increase in life expectancy is anticipated to contribute more to overall population growth than changes in fertility rates alone. As people live longer, the total number of individuals in a population continues to rise, even if birth rates decline.
What are the different variants of UN population projections and what do they signify?
The UN uses different variants to project future population sizes: the high variant represents a worst-case scenario where death rates fall and life expectancy increases while birth rates remain constant; the medium variant reflects the most likely scenario based on current trends; and the low variant indicates a best-case scenario where death rates rise and birth rates decline. These variants help illustrate the range of possible futures based on varying assumptions about demographic changes.
What challenges does rapid population growth present for developing regions?
Rapid population growth, particularly in some of the poorest countries in Africa, poses significant challenges for development efforts aimed at eradicating poverty and inequality, combating hunger and malnutrition, and expanding access to education and health services. As populations grow in these regions, it becomes increasingly difficult to provide adequate resources and support systems necessary for improving living standards.
Why are population projections considered controversial among experts?
Population projections are often controversial due to wide variations in estimates from different experts. The UN’s most up-to-date projections could be inaccurate by as much as 2 billion people, indicating a substantial margin of error. Disagreements among demographers stem from differing assumptions about how quickly fertility will decline in various regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa. While some theorists believe that fertility will decrease rapidly as it did in Asia and Latin America, others argue that current data suggests a slower decline.
What is “population momentum,” and how does it affect demographic trends?
Population momentum refers to the phenomenon where populations continue to grow even after fertility rates have declined. This occurs because changes in fertility rates take time to manifest in actual population numbers due to existing age structures within a population. For instance, even if fertility rates drop below replacement levels today, it may take several decades for those changes to significantly impact overall population size because younger cohorts will still be entering childbearing age.
How does understanding population momentum influence policy-making?
Understanding population momentum is crucial for effective policy-making because it highlights that immediate changes in fertility rates will not result in instantaneous changes in overall population growth. Policymakers need to consider long-term demographic trends when planning for resource allocation, infrastructure development, and social services. Recognizing that it takes time for demographic shifts to occur allows governments and organizations to better prepare for future challenges related to sustainability and resource management.
What is the formula for natural population growth?
NIR: (CBR-CDR)-10 (CBR is crude birth rate and CDR is crude death rate)
What is the natural increase rate (NIR) and how does it affect population change?
The natural increase rate (NIR) is the balance between fertility and mortality rates in a population. It is the primary driver of population change, determining whether a population grows or declines. Contrary to its name, the NIR can be positive (increase) or negative (decrease). For example, in 2016, South Sudan had the highest NIR at 3.92%, while the Cook Islands had the lowest at -2.88%.
How do the crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) differ as measures of fertility?
The crude birth rate (CBR) is the number of babies born annually per 1,000 people in a population, including both males and females. The global average CBR is between 18.7 and 19.15 per 1,000 people per year. In contrast, the total fertility rate (TFR) represents the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime based on current trends. The replacement rate TFR is 2.2, meaning a population will remain stable at this level.
How does women’s status impact fertility rates in different countries?
In countries where women have low status, they often lack control over childbearing, work, and education choices. This lack of autonomy typically leads to higher fertility rates. Conversely, in developed nations where women are more educated and have greater employment opportunities, they tend to delay marriage and motherhood, resulting in lower fertility rates. Studies show that women with secondary education typically have two fewer children than those without education.
How does the role of children in the labor force or education system affect fertility rates?
In less economically developed countries (LICs), children are often viewed as economic assets, especially in rural areas where they work on farms and contribute to family income. This perspective leads to higher fertility rates. In contrast, in more economically developed countries (HICs), children are considered an economic burden due to extended education periods and associated costs, resulting in lower fertility rates.
What is the relationship between urban living and fertility rates?
Urban areas generally have lower fertility rates compared to rural areas. This is due to several factors: limited and more expensive living space in cities, better access to health care and family planning services, and improved access to education. These urban characteristics often lead to smaller family sizes and lower overall fertility rates.
How do lifestyle choices and cultural norms influence fertility rates in developed countries?
In many developed countries, cultural norms have shifted towards later marriages and smaller families. People often prioritize material possessions and experiences, such as holidays, cars, and luxury items, which are more challenging to afford with larger families. Additionally, there’s a growing belief that it’s better to have fewer children and focus resources on providing them with the best opportunities, rather than spreading resources among more children.
How do infant mortality rates (IMR) and pension systems affect fertility rates?
In countries with high infant mortality rates and no pension systems, couples tend to have more children as a form of insurance for their old age. For example, in many African countries where the IMR is above 70 per 1,000 live births, people have many children to ensure that some survive to care for them in their later years. This contrasts with European countries where the IMR is around 3 per 1,000 live births and pension systems are in place, resulting in lower fertility rates.
How do family planning services and access to abortion impact fertility rates?
The availability of family planning services, contraception, and legal abortions significantly impacts fertility rates. When these options are easily accessible, women have more control over their reproductive choices, which typically leads to lower fertility rates. Conversely, limited access to these services often results in higher fertility rates.
How do religious beliefs and traditions influence fertility rates?
Many religions prohibit the use of artificial contraception and abortion while actively encouraging large families. In numerous less developed countries, having many children is seen as a sign of a man’s virility. Since men often control fertility decisions in these cultures, this combination of religious beliefs and cultural traditions tends to increase fertility rates.
How do government policies affect fertility rates, and what are some examples?
Government policies can significantly impact fertility rates through pro-natalist or anti-natalist measures. Pro-natalist policies encourage higher birth rates but are often less successful. Anti-natalist policies promote smaller families and the use of family planning, often resulting in lower fertility rates. For example, China’s One Child policy, implemented in 1979, successfully reduced fertility rates but led to unintended consequences such as a gender imbalance with a shortage of females in the population.
What are the four primary measures of mortality, and what were their mean global rates in 2015?
The four primary measures of mortality are as follows: The crude death rate (CDR), which is the most commonly used measure, was 7.8 deaths per 1,000 people per year globally. The infant mortality rate (IMR) measures the number of children who die before their first birthday and was recorded at 32 deaths per 1,000 live births per year. The child mortality rate (CMR) tracks the number of children who die before their fifth birthday and stood at 43 deaths per 1,000 births per year. Finally, life expectancy (LE) indicates the average number of years a person is expected to live at birth, which was 71 years for individuals born in 2015.
How do mortality rates relate to population growth rates?
Mortality rates provide significant insights into population growth dynamics. Research indicates that a population growth rate of 0–0.5% is associated with crude death rates ranging from 5.1 in Micronesia to 15 in Russia. Conversely, this same growth rate correlates with crude birth rates between 9.1 in Portugal and 28 in Samoa. This suggests that mortality rates may serve as better predictors of future population structure compared to birth rates
What regional patterns are observed in mortality measures such as CDR, IMR, and LE?
Regional patterns reveal that Sub-Saharan Africa consistently exhibits the worst mortality rates, characterized by the highest CDR and IMR along with the lowest life expectancy. In contrast, high-income countries (HICs) typically have the lowest IMR and the highest life expectancies, reflecting their advanced healthcare systems and living conditions. Interestingly, HICs do not always have the lowest CDRs; some South American, Asian, and North African countries report lower death rates, indicating that various factors influence these outcomes.
What major factors influence global mortality rates?
Several key factors impact global mortality rates. Income plays a crucial role; higher-income families generally have better access to food, healthcare, education, shelter, electricity, and clean water, all contributing to lower mortality rates. Literacy and education are particularly significant among women; educated mothers tend to have lower child mortality rates because they possess greater knowledge about childcare and health practices. For example, Angola had an IMR of 96 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015 alongside a female adult literacy rate of only 24%, while Singapore had an IMR of just 2 deaths per 1,000 live births with a literacy rate of 95%.
How does access to food affect mortality rates?
Access to food is vital for health and survival. A balanced diet providing adequate calories—typically between 2,000 to 2,500 calories daily—is essential for good health. In high-income countries (HICs), average calorie intake often exceeds 3,340 calories but can lead to obesity-related health issues like cardiovascular disease. Conversely, many individuals in low-income countries (LICs) consume fewer than 2,200 calories daily and less than 60 grams of protein, leading to malnutrition and nutrient deficiency diseases that significantly increase mortality rates.
What role does healthcare availability play in influencing mortality rates?
Access to healthcare is a critical determinant of mortality rates. In most high-income countries (HICs), public healthcare services are widely available, which helps lower CDR through effective disease prevention and treatment programs. These services include immunization initiatives and routine medical care. In contrast, many low-income countries (LICs) lack basic healthcare facilities and immunization programs, resulting in elevated mortality rates due to untreated diseases.
How do water supply and sanitation impact global mortality?
Water supply and sanitation are crucial for public health; according to the World Health Organization, approximately 3.4 million people die each year from water-related diseases—over 9,000 daily. These diseases encompass cholera, dysentery, botulism, and giardiasis. Poor access to clean water exacerbates these issues and is often compounded by inadequate sanitation facilities.
How does access to shelter affect mortality rates?
Access to adequate shelter significantly influences mortality rates. Individuals lacking protection from environmental elements such as rain, cold temperatures, heat, and disease-carrying organisms face increased risks of illness and death. Poor housing conditions can lead to higher exposure to infectious diseases and other health hazards.
What lifestyle choices contribute to higher crude death rates (CDRs) in high-income countries?
Lifestyle choices prevalent in many high-income countries contribute to rising CDRs due to poor dietary habits combined with sedentary lifestyles. Many people consume excessive amounts of unhealthy foods while engaging in little physical activity—relying on cars for transportation rather than walking or cycling—which increases the risk of degenerative diseases such as heart disease and diabetes.
How does population aging affect mortality rates in high-income countries?
High-income countries often experience higher death rates due to aging populations. Despite advancements in diet and healthcare systems that enhance life expectancy over time, all individuals eventually reach old age where they become more susceptible to degenerative diseases such as cancer. The cumulative effect of prolonged life expectancy results in increased mortality as these populations age.
Define Crude death rate (CDR)
The number of deaths/1000 per year.
Define Infant mortality rate (IMR)
The number of children who die before the age of 1 year/1000 live births per year.
Define Child mortality rate (CMR)
The number of children who die before their fifth birthday/1000 births per year.
Define Life expectancy
The number of years you are expected to live at birth.
What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) and when was it developed?
The Demographic Transition Model was developed in the 1920s based on observations of demographic changes in selected European countries over the previous 200 years. Initially, the model had four stages, but a fifth stage was later added to account for continued demographic changes in developed countries. The DTM is used to predict population changes in less developed countries, assuming they will follow a similar progression as more developed nations.
What are the key characteristics of Stage 1 (High Stationary) in the DTM?
Stage 1 is characterized by high fluctuating crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR), resulting in a very low to zero natural increase rate (NIR). High birth rates are due to factors such as the need for children to work, high child mortality, lack of family planning, early marriages, and religious encouragement of procreation. High death rates are caused by disease outbreaks, famine, poor sanitation, limited healthcare, and lack of knowledge about disease spread.
How does Stage 2 (Early Expanding) differ from Stage 1 in the DTM?
In Stage 2, the crude birth rate remains high, but death rates drop quickly, causing a significant increase in the natural increase rate and a rapidly expanding population. Falling death rates are attributed to improved food production and storage, better understanding of disease spread, medical advancements like penicillin and vaccinations, and increased access to basic healthcare and education.
What are the main features of Stage 3 (Late Expanding) in the DTM?
Stage 3 sees continued falling death rates and the beginning of declining birth rates. This stage experiences the highest natural increase rate of all stages due to the large gap between CBR and CDR. The fall in birth rates is attributed to improved status and education of women, availability of contraceptives, understanding of family planning, bans on child labor, and children becoming a financial burden due to education costs.
How does Stage 4 (Low Stationary) differ from previous stages in the DTM?
In Stage 4, birth rates, death rates, and natural increase rates are all low. However, the population is already large due to the previous periods of high growth. The population pyramid for this stage shows a more rectangular shape, indicating a more even distribution of age groups.
What are the key characteristics of Stage 5 (Declining) in the DTM?
In Stage 5, death rates exceed birth rates due to an increase in lifestyle diseases such as cardiovascular issues caused by low exercise and high obesity levels. An aging population emerges as the large numbers from high birth rates in earlier stages reach old age. This stage faces challenges with unfavorable dependency ratios, as there are fewer workers to support the growing elderly population.
What are the main criticisms of the Demographic Transition Model?
The DTM faces several criticisms: it is Eurocentric and based on high-income countries, which may not apply to low-income countries; some low-income countries are progressing through stages faster due to existing medical and educational advancements; it doesn’t account for natural disasters, epidemics, or wars; it ignores government population policies; it doesn’t consider migration impacts; and cultural and religious factors in some countries maintain high birth rates, keeping them in Stage 2.
Define population pyramid
A graphical illustration to show the age and gender distribution of a population.
What are population pyramids and how are they structured?
Population pyramids, also known as age/sex or age/gender pyramids, are graphical illustrations showing the age and gender distribution of a population. They consist of horizontal bars on either side of a vertical axis (y-axis), with each bar representing 5-year age groups from 0-4 years to 100+ years. The left side represents males, and the right side represents females. The horizontal axis (x-axis) shows population numbers in millions, thousands, or percentages.
