ch 11 making decisions Flashcards
decision making
making choices among alternative courses of action - which may include inaction
programmed decisions
decisions that occur frequently enough that we develop an automated response to them
decision rule
the automated response we use to make these decisions
ex. complaints at a restaurant are dealt by enacting a policy that they receive a free dessert when giving a valid complaint
nonprogrammed decisons
unique and important decisions require conscious thinking, info gathering, and careful consideration of alternatives
three levels of decisions
strategic
tactical
operational
strategic decisions
set the course of an organization
- top management teams, CEOs, boards of directors
tactical decisions
decisions about how things will get done
- managers
operational decisions
decisions that employees make each day to make the organization run
- employees throughout the organization
rational decision making model
a series of steps that decision makers should consider if their goal is to maximize the quality of their outcomes
8 steps in the rational decision-making model
- identify the problem
- establish decision criteria
- weigh decision criteria
- generate alternatives
- evaluate the alternatives
- choose the best alternative
- implement the decision
- evaluate the decision
analysis paralysis
the availability of too much info, when more and more time is spent on gathering info and thinking about it but no decisions actually get made
bounded rationality model
individuals knowingly limit their options to a manageable set and choose the first acceptable alternative without conducting an exhaustive search for alternatives
satisfice
(satisfy and suffice)
accepting the first alternative that meets you minimum criteria
intuitive decision-making model
arriving at decisions without conscious reasoning
5 step creative decision-making process
- problem recognition
- immersion
- incubation
- illumination
- verification and application
fluency
the number of ideas a person is able to generate
flexibility
how different the ideas are from one another
originality
how unique a person’s ideas are
3 aspects of creativity
fluency, flexibility, originality
brainstorming
a group process of generating ideas that allow a set of guidelines, including no criticism of ideas during brainstorming process, the idea that no suggestion is too crazy, and building on other ideas
idea quotas
the quantity of ideas actually leads to better idea quality in the end
group must reach a set number of ideas before they are done is recommended to avoid process loss and maximize the effectiveness of brainstorming
wildstorming
group focuses on ideas that are impossible and then imagines what would need to happen to make them possible
4 decision making models
rational
bounded rationality
intuitive
creative
overconfidence bias
occurs when individuals overestimate their ability to predict future events
hindsight bias
the opposite of overconfidence bias
occurs when looking backward in time and mistakes seem obvious after they have already occurred
anchoring
the tendency for individuals to rely too heavily on a single piece of info
framing bias
the tendency of decision makers to be influenced by the way that a situation or problem is presented
escalation of commitment
when individuals continue on a failing course of action after info reveals it may be a poor path to follow
aka sunken costs fallacy
8 symptoms of groupthink
- illusion of invulnerability
- collective rationalizations
- an unquestioned belief in the group’s inherent morality
- stereotyped views of outgroups
- direct pressure
- self-censorship
- illusions of unanimity
- the emergence of self-appointed mindguards
nominal group technique (NGT)
developed to help with group decision making by ensuring that all members participate fully
used to structure group meetings when members are grappling with problem solving or idea generation to ensure that all members participate fully, and it avoids group decision making problems such as groupthink
4 steps of NGT
- each member of the group begins by independently and silently writing down ideas
- the group goes in order around the room to gather all the ideas that were generated
- a discussion takes place around each idea, and members ask for and give clarification and make evaluative statements
- group members vote for their favorite idea by using ranking or rating techniques
delphi technique
a group process using written responses to a series of questionnaires instead of physically bringing individuals together to make a decision
majority rule
a decision-making rule in which each member of the group is given a single vote and the option receiving the greatest number of votes is selected
consensus
goal is to gain support for an idea or plan or action
group decision support systems (GDSS)
interactive computer-based systems that are able to combine communication and decision technologies to help groups make better decisions
decision trees
diagrams in which answers to yes or no questions lead decision makers to address additional questions until they reach the end of the tree
questions to ask to assess the ethics of a decision
- is this decision fair
- will i feel better or worse about myself after i make this decision
- dies this decision break any laws
- how would i feel if this decision were broadcast on the news
