7b Analysing the external environment: economic change (economy & economic policies) Flashcards
What are the different economic forces which might impact upon decision making?
- GDP
- Inflation
- Interest Rates
- Exchange Rates
- Monetary Policy
- Fiscal Policy
- Taxation
What is a countrys GDP?
The value of a countrys output over a period of time is measured by its GDP.
What is a recession?
A period of atleast 6 months (or two quarters) during which an economy’s GDP falls.
What does the business cycle describe?
The regular fluctuations in economic activity (and thus GDP) that occur over time in all economies.
Business cycles generally have what 4 stages?
Recovery/ upswing
Boom
Recession
Slump
What are the key features of recovery/ upswing?
Increasing consumer expenditure
Existing spare capacity used.
Production rises.
Business confidence strengthens
Investment increases.
What are examples of possible strategic & function decisions made in response to recovery/upswing?
Strategic decisions:
- Entrepreneurs decide to start a new business.
- Existing firms increase capacity.
Functional decisions:
- Prices are increased.
- Businesses operate nearer to (or at) full capacity.
What are the key features of a Boom?
- Rate of inflation normally increases.
- Bottlenecks in supply of materials & components.
- Some firms unable to satisfy demand.
- Profits probably high-but hit by rising costs.
What are examples of possible functional and strategic decisions made by businesses in response to a Boom?
Strategic decisions:
- Firms enter new geographical markets.
Functional decisions:
- Firms sub-contract production to other producers.
- Businesses increase prices to dampen demand.
What are some key features of a recession?
- Government reduces interest rates.
- Firms reduce production as demand falls.
- Spare capacity increases.
- Business confidence declines & investment is cut.
- Profits fall.
What are the possible strategic & function decisions taken in response to a Recession?
Strategic decisions:
- Financially weak businesses may decide to stop trading.
- Firms may enter overseas markets where demand is stronger.
Functional decisions:
- Businesses stockpile products.
- Workers required to work short-time.
What are the key features of a slump?
- Increasing number of bankruptcies & insolvencies.
- Government lowers interest rates further.
- High levels of unemployment.
- Low levels of business confidence & consumer spending.
What are the possible strategic & function decisions taken in response to a slump?
Strategic decisions:
- Large-scale redundancies may be announced.
- Factories, offices and stores closed to reduce capacity.
Functional decisions:
- Businesses offer basic products at low prices.
- Promotion focuses on price & easy payment terms.
Recovery/ upswing
What happens in this period?
- As the economy recovers from a slump, production & employment both begin to increase.
- Consumers will generally spend more- as more confident in job security.
- Initially businesses may respond cautiously through functional decisions to meet rising demand by using spare capacity.
- As confidence begins to increase, firms may invest in new non-current assets e.g. factories, machinery, vehicles.
- Employees experience less difficulty in finding jobs & wages may begin to rise.
Boom
What happens in this stage?
- Boom follows with high levels of production & expenditure by firms, consumers & gov.
- Prosperity & confidence in business & invest in non-current assets.
- Many sectors of the economy will experience pressure- skilled workers may become scarce & firms competing for workers may offer higher wages.
- As economy approached max production, shortages & bottlenecks will occur as insufficient raw materials & components exist to meet demand.
- Will result in prices rising.
- Rising wages & rising prices of raw materials & components will create inflation- which usually lead to end of boom.
Recession
What happens in this stage?
- Occurs when incomes & output start to fall& do so continuously for at least 6 months.
- Rising prices of labour & materials mean businesses face increased costs of production- beginning to reduce profits.
- In these circumstances- gov has reduced interest rates to avoid GDP falling further.
- Falling demand from consumers & profits- likely to lead to any plans of investment- new factories being delayed/ abandoned.
- Amount of spare capacity within economy will rise- some businesses will fail & level of bankruptcies is likely to increase.
Slump
What happens within this stage?
- Slump may follow a recession.
- An economy may enter the upswing stage of of the business cycle without moving through a slump period.
- Governments may take action to encourage this through fiscal & monetray policy- e.g. increasing their own spending & lowering interest rates.
- Slump -sees production at its lowest while unemploment is high.
The effects of changes in GDP
What will happen to firms selling products whose demand is sensitive to income- e.g. designer clothes/ foreign holidays during a boom & recession?
Boom- sales may strongly rise.
Recession- forms may heavily fall.
The effects of changes in GDP
What will happen to businesses selling staple products such as foodstuffs?
As demand isnt elastic, they may be relatively unaffected by changes in the level of GDP!
What is an exchange rate?
The price/value of one currnecy expressed in terms of another.
Exchange rates can cause uncertainty for businesses for what reasons?
Uncertainty over revenue.
Uncertainty regarding quantities likely to be sold.
Uncertainty regarding competitors responses.
What techniques can the undesirable effects of exchange rates be reduced through?
What are the disadvantages of this however?
- Forward foreign currency markets.
- This sets a guaranteed exchange rate at some future date - meaning that the amount received from overseas trading is more certain.
HOWEVER
- Fixing an exchange rate does not guarantee a particular level of sales & the bank arranging this service may require a fee.
Decision making & exchange rates
What is an alternative way than fixing an exchange rate that companies such as Toyota use?
What will the impact of this be?
- To require suppliers to price their products in a different currency.
- As a result, fluctuations in the exchange rate will have less impact on the company as it pays suppliers in the same currency that it receives from European customers.
What markets are exchange rate changes more of a problem & what may these businesses do in response?
- Markets where fierce price competition occurs.
- In these circumstances- demand is more price elastic & businesses under pressure to respond quickly to any change in exchange rate.
- This may lead to strategic decisions to minimise these effects- e.g. seek to create productive capacity in overseas markets to avoid the effects of changing currency values.