4.4.3 - Case Study of 2010 Election Flashcards
What was the defining feature in the background of the 2010 Election?
The 2008 Economic Crash
Where did the Economic Crash begin?
America
How did the Economic Crash of 2008 happen?
- The sub-prime mortgage sector collapsed as the mortgage providers offered loans at far more than the standard 300/400% rates.
- The market eventually noticed the CDO’s that the banks had were backed by incredibly shaky subprime mortgages. Once the mortgages themselves collapsed, the CDO’s they were a part of then had no collateral to promise future repayments from the underlying loans, meaning people stopped purchasing mortgage backed securities (MBS).
- The CDOs massively increased the demand for MBS and therefore firms were more likely to loan to subprime borrowers.
- Once the housing bubble burst, many subprime borrowers saw them underwater on mortgage payments that were worth more than the house. This led to even higher levels of default, further damaging the economy.
- This crash in America meant that the banks could not repay their own debt and therefore the world economy collapsed.
Why did RBS and Northern Rock struggle most during the 2008 Crash?
- They unfortunately had the highest level of debt to the Americans and were unable to get their own money back from the banks.
- As the market crashed, market confidence in the banks collapsed and there was a run on the banks. Both banks massively struggled to pay the people their money as it was tied up in American debt.
What did the Labour government do for RBS and Northern Rock?
They promised to bail both banks out.
How did the Tories attack Gordon Brown’s bailout strategy?
His strategy massively increased national debt, which the Conservatives promised to completely remove national debt within 5 years.
How were Labour doing in 2007?
They were performing quite well after Blair’s resignation and Brown’s PMship.
What was a massive mistake that Gordon Brown made in 2007?
- Not calling a General Election.
- If he called an election in 2007, it is highly likely he would’ve won.
When did Gordon Brown ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament?
12th April (Election on 6th May)
How many constituencies voted in 2010?
649 (“Thirsk and Malton” postponed election for 3 weeks due to candidate death)
How had the Conservatives changed under Cameron?
Moved more central as he felt they were becoming far too unpopular.
What did the Liberal Democrats want entering the 2010 Election?
Gains from both sides from apathetic Labour and Conservative voters so they could hold power in a hung parliament.
How did the first televised debate go?
Clegg was the frontrunner by far and away as he performed incredibly well with both Cameron and Brown stating, ‘I agree with Nick’.
How many undecided voters were there before the election?
An incredibly high total.
What goal did the SNP set out?
Due to their success in the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary Elections, they set a goal of 20 MPs.
What goal did Plaid Cymru set out?
Gains in Northern Wales.
Why did smaller parties such as UKIP, Green and BNP expect more representation in the House of Commons?
Due to success at local and European elections, they looked to extend their representation in the House of Commons.
What goal did the DUP set out?
To maintain their seat total.
What was interesting about the party leaders since 2005?
All 3 main parties had different leaders.
Who did Cameron replace from 2005?
Micheal Howard in 2005.
Who did Brown replace from 2005?
Blair in 2007.
Who did Clegg replace from 2005?
Menzies Campbell in 2007.
When was the last time all 3 main parties had different leaders?
1979.
The prospect of a coalition only occurred after the election results came in. T/F?
- False, the prospect had been considered long before polling day.
- Brown made comments about a coalition in 2010.
Why did the Civil Service meet with the Liberal Democrats?
They were so certain the election would lead to a hung parliament they met with the Liberal Democrats to discuss policy.
What was Clegg’s main requirement for a coalition?
Clegg would only talk to either party provided they accepted proportional representation, without committing to either of the major parties.
What was Bigotgate?
Gillian Duffy was a 65 year old woman and lifelong Labour voter who Brown described as a “bigoted woman” as he forgot to turn off his microphone while entering a car.
How many debates were there in the 2010 Election?
3
Who ‘won’ the first debate?
Nick Clegg
What happened after the first debate?
The voting splits in opinion polls seemed to lead to true three party politics with the Liberal Democrats at one point having 33% of the opinion polls.
Who ‘won’ the second debate?
Cameron (although Clegg was close)
What happened in the second debate?
Both Cameron and Brown realised Clegg was quickly becoming a real threat and attacked him relentlessly throughout the debate.
Who ‘won’ the third debate?
Cameron
Why were the debates so interesting to the British public?
It was the first election that featured an American style studio audience.
What effect did the debates have?
They did actually shift opinion, with some people being influenced to vote a particular way.
What was the main tenet that all three parties agreed on?
- Cuts would have to be made in public spending.
- However, each party had different views on how far and deep the cuts would be made.
What was Labour’s proposed debt reduction?
50% debt reduction after 5 years.
What was the Conservative proposed debt reduction?
100% debt reduction after 5 years.
How did the Labour vote look?
29% vote share (second lowest since 1918).
How did the Liberal Democrats fair?
5 seat loss, despite a higher vote share.
However, they were gifted the ability to become kingmakers.
(unfortunately, they were almost forced to enter a coalition with the Conservatives as they were the only viable party with the numbers)
How did the Conservatives do?
Well, although they couldn’t get a single party majority.
How did the SNP fair relative to their goal?
They saw no breakthrough in Scotland.
What occurred within the Green party?
They won their first ever seat, Brighton Pavilion, which she has since retained.
Why was the 2010 a possible watershed election?
- The first peace-time coalition since the 1920s.
- Liberal Democrats were given 5 cabinet posts out of 22 with junior ministers in every government department.
- The Liberal Democrat influence did temper the very right-wing sect of the Conservative party.
- The first election in which social media played a key part.
How did the Liberal Democrat vote change from 2010 to 2015?
57 seats down to 8.
Why did many choose not to vote Liberal Democrat in the 2015 Election?
They felt lied to, as they had not delivered on either of their main promises:
- Abolishment of tuition fees
- Proportional representation
Why were many MPs afraid of the media in 2010?
- The News of the World had a reputation for phone-tapping and sting operations and routinely uncovered MP wrongdoing.
- Many MPs wanted stricter control over the press, but were unable to affect statute.
How do newspapers behave electorally?
Most newspapers have a bias towards certain political parties.
Which newspapers tend to be Conservative supporting?
- The Sun
- The Daily Mail
- The Daily Express
- The Telegraph (Torygraph)
Which newspapers tend to be Labour leaning?
- The Guardian
- The Daily Mirror
Which newspapers tend to be neutral?
- The Independent (although slightly left sometimes)
- The Financial Times
Why do newspapers tend to give a Conservative advantage?
The average reader is 53
At 53, you are more likely to vote, and are also more likely to vote Conservative.
Why do many people feel newspaper power is overstated?
Many feel that newspapers do not change opinion as you buy the paper that most closely aligns with your personal political leaning, but merely reinforce opinion.
Why is television impartial in the UK?
There is law that mainstream television must be impartial (BBC, ITV, C4 etc.)
Where does the nuance live within television impartiality?
C4 tends to be slightly liberal and progressive, with stories on poverty / food banks.
Where do the majority of people get their news?
BBC Television
Why do channels such as Sky and GBN not have to be impartial?
They are technically not mainstream television as they are satellite channels.
How does Sky and GBN lean?
Sky - chooses impartiality without a statutory right to do so.
GBN - explicitly Conservative.
Why may social media cause huge problems in later elections?
There is no real regulation by law, or any requirements to be fair and/or balanced.
Who mainly uses social media?
Under 45’s.
Why is the effect of social media dampened?
As the typical user is under 45 (more around 30), they are less likely to vote, but more likely to vote Labour if they vote at all.
