4.2 - Political Context

Question 1

What is the valence factor?

Answer 1

• Refers to the relative success / failure of a government’s policies.
• Voters who vote according to valence factors are making their decisions based on whether or not they are satisfied with the government’s performance.

Question 2

What are the main valence factors?

Answer 2

• Governing competence.
• Leadership: Opposition Leadership, - Minority Leadership, Popularity of Leader
• Campaign
• Manifesto

Question 3

Why have valence factor based voters seen an increase?

Answer 3

The decline of traditional class based voting loyalties since the 1970s.

Question 4

Why is governing competence a valence factor?

Answer 4

The competence is the main valence factor. If swing voters are assured that the current government is fit to serve, they will be less likely to vote for the opposition.

Question 5

What was the Conservative Poster from the 1959 and why was it an example of governing competence as a valence factor?

Answer 5

• ‘Life’s better with the Conservatives - don’t let Labour ruin it’
• Labour have been renowned for their carefree public spending, so the Conservatives preyed on this and took a 100-seat majority.

Question 6

What is governing competency?

Answer 6

The extent to which the government is regarded as having been capable and competent.

Question 7

How has governing competency of successful governments affected outcomes? (examples)

Answer 7

• 1959 - Economic prosperity with a wider availability of consumer goods contributed to the Conservatives 100-seat majority.
• 1966 - Wilson’s Labour government looked energetic with minimal industrial unrest. A snap election was called and a majority was increased to over 100 seats.
• 1983 - Despite unemployment levels being high, Thatcher’s Conservative government had brought inflation under control. The Falklands War alongside the unity of cabinet maintained the government’s reputation for strength of purpose.

Question 8

How has governing competency of unsuccessful governments affected outcomes? (examples)

Answer 8

• 1964 - Alec Douglas Home had been unable to distance themselves from the scandals of the prior Macmillan government. Charles De Gaulle vetoing Macmillan’s attempt to join the EEC, Macmillan’s desperate attempt to sack 1/3 of his cabinet and the Profumo affair.
• 1974 - Edward Heath called a snap election in response to another miner’s strike. This was seen by many as an election to see ‘Who governs Britain’, and many saw it as evidence that an incompetent government had lost control of an entire nation.
• 1979 - The inability of Callaghan’s Labour government to stop the escalation of strikes during the Winter of Discontent undermined public faith in his government.

Question 9

What was the Profumo affair?

Answer 9

An affair between John Profumo and Christine Keller. Keller was 19 and Profumo was married. Profumo lied in the Commons and was found out weeks later by a police investigation.

Question 10

Why is Leadership a valence factor?

Answer 10

• Due to partisan dealignment and a decrease of class based voting, the image of party leaders has become more important.
• 1983 - Thatcher’s reputation for strong and focused leadership contrasted with Foot’s left-wing intellectualism. Thatcher faced down One-Nation Tories with the now famous speech that said ‘ You turn if you want to, this lady’s not for turning’ and sent a task-force to recover the Falklands.
• 2001 - Blair dominated with a charismatic force of personality which contrasted with Hague’s fragmented opposition.

Question 11

Why are opposition leaders a valence factor?

Answer 11

• Opposition leaders can either capture the mood of the country or completely misjudge it.
• 1945 - Churchill associated the Attlee government with ‘the Gestapo’ and completely lost support of the nation.
• 1951 - Churchill campaigned to ‘set the people free’, promised to end rationing and reduce the middle classes’ tax burden. Contrasted one-nation conservatism with Attlee’s class-based socialism.

Question 12

How is minority party leadership a valence factor?

Answer 12

• Some voters can feel fatigued with the two major parties and as such can choose another party (often the Liberals).
• 2010 - Clegg’s engaging personality in the first televised debate made Cameron and Brown admit that ‘I agree with Nick’. 57 Liberal Democrat MPs were elected and denied Cameron a majority.
• 2015 - Farage’s UKIP was expected to take votes from the Conservatives, but as he relentlessly focused on immigration, he took many working class votes, and denied Labour many swing seats.
• 2015 - Sturgeon’s SNP took many seats from Labour Scotland, causing 40 seats to be lost, so Miliband was completely undermined in forming a government.

Question 13

Why is the leaders personal popularity a valence factor?

Answer 13

• A leader does not need to be personally popular if they can define to their advantage the issues on which a General Election is fought.
• 1979 - Despite Callaghan being personally far more popular than Thatcher, Thatcher focused on the incompetence of the government and won the election.
• 2017 - Despite May’s higher personal popularity, Corbyn had a much more optimistic campaign and increased the Labour vote by 9.6%.

Question 14

Why is the campaign a major valence factor?

Answer 14

• The rhetoric employed by a party can be a huge difference maker in election results.
• 1983 - The socialist rhetoric only appealed to the core Labour voters and saw the Labour vote collapse under Foot.
• 2017 - Corbyn campaigned in a traditional fashion across the nation, taking the Labour case directly to the people as opposed to May’s stage managed and choreographed campaign.
• However, even a perfectly choreographed campaign cannot win an election in and of itself.
• 1987 - Kinnock had an incredible campaign, but as Thatcher was the tougher leader she won as voters were unprepared to trust Labour with either the economy or defence.

Question 15

Do campaigns influence the result of a General Election? (Yes)

Answer 15

• Some campaigns can challenge existing attitudes if it is a tight race.
• The growth of partisan dealignment suggests campaigns do matter as voters are much more flexible in their voting intentions.
• 1974 - Thorpe campaigned, preying on the discontent of Wilson and Heath increasing the Liberal share of the vote by 11.8%.
• 1992 - Major’s decision to abandon stage-managed events contrasted with Kinnock’s heavily managed events and led to a shock Conservative victory.
• 2010 - Clegg had an excellent televised debate, and led to a Conservative-Liberal coalition.
• 2017 - Corbyn’s optimistic rallies contrasted with May’s uninspiring campaign and led to an increased vote of 40%.

Question 16

Do campaigns influence the result of a General Election? (No)

Answer 16

• Voters have generally already made their mind up on how to vote.
• 1950s and 1960s had major class allegiance with campaigns having no effect.
• 1987 - Kinnock had a much praised campaign and still lost an election with a 102-seat majority to the Conservatives.
• Despite a poor campaign in 2017, Conservative vote increased from 36.9% to 42.4%.

Question 17

Are voting trends are problem for UK democracy? (Yes)

Answer 17

• Disillusion with politicians has seen a steady increase since 1992.
• 77% turnout to 67.3% in 2019.
• The failure of young and DE voters has given the Conservatives an advantage in General Elections.
• The lack of engagement of poorer social classes meant there is less urgency to represent their interests at Westminster.

Question 18

Are voting trends a problem for UK democracy? (No)

Answer 18

• Voting has steadily been increasing since 2005. 65%, 66%, 69%.
• The surge of interest in Jeremy Corbyn meant that 18-24 vote was closer to 60%.

Question 19

What is disillusion?

Answer 19

The number of voters since 1990s is generally lower than it was up to the 1990s.

Question 20

What is a manifesto?

Answer 20

In a general election, each party launches a list of policies that will be introduced if they are introduced to government.

Question 21

Why is a manifesto a valence factor?

Answer 21

• While almost all voters will not understand the manifesto in its entirety, one or two popular policies may swing the result, whereas one or two unpopular policies will swing the result away from the party.
• 1987 - Labour did not commit to the UK’s nuclear deterrent. The Conservatives used an image of a surrendering soldier stating ‘LABOUR’S POLICY ON ARMS’
• 1992 - Labour manifesto to increase public spending allowed the Conservatives to claim successfully that a Labour government would mean a ‘tax bombshell’ for every family.

Question 22

Why is issue / instrumental voting a valence factor?

Answer 22

• General Elections have been more decided by voters voting based on a rational choice rather than individual self-interest.
• 2015 - UKIP vote boomed under immigration being a major factor.
• 2017 - Labour commitment to abolish tuition fees provided a strong incentive for young voters to vote Labour.
• However, in some elections instrumental voting can be considerably less importance than perceived competence.
• 1997 - Labour saw 11% swing among AB voters despite AB being most likely to be affected by windfall tax on privatised utilities, suggesting the perceived incompetence of John Major was more important than economic self-interest.