4.4: The management of natural increase Flashcards
1
Q
Brief history of population change in China
A
- After the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, the new leader Deng Ziaoping became the leader
- His ralllying cry became the ‘Four Modernisations’ - industry, agriculture, defense, and science and technology
2
Q
What was the new policy of Household Responsibility Systems (HRS)
A
- Each household must be held accountable to the state for only what it agrees to produce, and is free to keep surplus output for private use
- In addition to this program, which was an incentive for households to produce more, Deng encouraged farmers to engage in private entrepreneurship and side-line businesses in order to supplement their incomes.
3
Q
What was the rationale behind anti-natalist policies: health and education, unemployment
See NOTES PAGE for labour surplus
A
- Fear of more famines and that rapid population growth would be a drag on development of economy and make it difficult to provide health and education services.
- The basic economic ‘factors of production’ are land, labour and capital. A country’s population level determines how much labour is available. The higher the population, the more labour, which has led some leaders to believe that their countries’ birth rates should rise as much as possible. However, when the level of available labour significantly surpasses a country’s other resources, the factors of production become unbalanced, leading to a labour surplus that causes problems like unemployment and insufficient healthcare and education.
4
Q
Some quotable figures for the population
A
- Population had grown from 583m in 1953 to 700m in 1963 and reached 1bn by 1980
- It is currently at 1.39bn, and projected to peak at around 1.45bn by 2030, then drop to 1.4bn by 2050 and 1.1bn by 2100.
5
Q
Explain what the voluntary policy was
A
- Beginning in 1970, citizens were encouraged to marry later and only have two children
- These policies can be summed up as - ‘Later, longer, fewer’
- Later (men encouraged to marry at 28 in urban areas/ 25 in rural areas, women at 25/ 23)
- Longer (a gap of at least 4 years between each child)
- Fewer (2 or 3 kids total)’ with aim of slowing down any future population increase. Birth control clinics offered free contraception and sterilisation
- These voluntary policies are often overlooked but were hugely successful! China’s fertility rate was reduced from more than six to just under three before the one-child policy was introduced in 1979.
6
Q
Explain what the one child policy was
A
- In 1979, Deng Xiaoping introduced the ‘one child policy’
- The aim was to keep total population below 1.2 billion by 2002 (in the end, was around 1.3bn). The TFR fell to 1.6 in 2009 and is around 1.4 today.
7
Q
What were the key features of the one child policy
A
- Most ethnic Han Chinese (who make up 92% of the population) were limited to one child per married couple
- Contraception/ sterilisation/ abortions were readily available
- One child couples were awarded a certificate which entitled them to various rewards – priority housing, pension and family benefits, including free education for the single child
- Couples having more than one child were fined (plus a permanent salary cut, which could be extended to workmates to increase peer pressure, and had to pay for education of all children and health care for all the family if went over one child quota).
8
Q
What were the changes to the original one child policy
A
- A second child was allowed in many rural regions if the first was a girl and couples who were both only children were allowed two children
- With increasing wealth, more people felt able to break the rules, pay the fine and take the other consequences of having a second child
- The one child policy was dropped first in Shanghai where fertility rates were deemed ‘too’ low
- By 2015, only around 35% of China’s population were subject to the one child restriction
- In October 2015, a change to a two-child policy was announced, ratified in March 2016.
9
Q
Evaluation of the one child policy: evidence that it was a success
A
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10
Q
Evaluation of the one child policy: how many births did the one child policy actually prevent
A
- During the 1990’s China plunged below-replacement fertility rate
- The Chinese authorities claim that anti-natalist policies prevented 400 million births during the past 30 years
- But this is disputed by independent scholars who argue much of the decline would have happened voluntarily with economic development and urbanisation
- They claim that the one-child policy alone probably averted around 100 million additional births
11
Q
Explain how urbanisation would have naturally lowered fertility rates in China + give figures on percentages of urban population in China
A
- China’s fertility declined naturally as its economy transformed into a more industrialized, urban-centred model in the late 20th century
- The Chinese population was only 10% urban in 1950. Today (2015) the figure is 55%. Think about how this in itself would have driven down fertility, even without the 1 child policy.
12
Q
Evaluation of the one child policy: not necessarily effective compared to voluntary policy
A
- In the early 1970s, the three voluntary policies of delayed marriage, longer intervals between births and fewer children were greatly effective in limiting births, without the use of controversial procedures like forced abortions or sterilizations
- China’s fertility rate was halved from more than six to just under three before the one-child policy was introduced in 1979
- In addition, the policy itself is probably only partially responsible for the reduction in the total fertility rate
- In a number of areas where couples have been allowed 2 children since the mid-1980s, fertility remains lower than in one-child areas!
13
Q
What are the fertility rates in China
A
- China’s officials may have been overestimating the fertility rate in recent years
- Raw census data showed fertility plunging to 1.22 in the 2000 census
- The Beijing authorities imagine that people are keeping babies secret, especially girls, so they and the UN quote a figure of 1.8, but studies that cross check the data suggest that fertility really is as low as the census suggests
- People in urban areas of China, in particular, are losing the habit of having children. In Hong Kong and Singapore, the fertility rate is less than 1.
14
Q
Explain the drawbacks of the one-child policy: human rights abuses
A
- Forced abortions and sterilisations, female infanticide and abandonment, losing privileges and paying fines for having more than one child, situations where children are registered/ brought up as having other parents.
15
Q
Explain the drawbacks of the one-child policy: gender imbalance
A
- Many men now can’t find wives due to 30 years of sex-selective abortion, infanticide and neglect
- Will this create groups of disaffected men – so called ‘bachelor armies’?
