4.1: Natural increase as a component of population change

Question 1

Define + give examples of world average, low and high extremes of natural change (increase/decrease) rate

Answer 1

• Change in population results from a difference between births and deaths
• Natural increase occurs when births exceed deaths
• World average is 1.03%
• Some are declining e.g Germany (-0.2%), Russia (-0.2%), Japan (-0.4%)
• High growth rates include Niger (3.6%), South Sudan 5.05%, Burundi (3.7%)
• UK is growing (0.5%)

Question 2

Define + give examples of world average, low and high extremes of birth rate

Answer 2

• The number of live births in a single year per 1000 people in the total population of a country or region
• World average is 18/1000
• Highest - Niger (47), Angola (42)
• Lowest - Japan (7), Germany (8.6), Italy (8.4), Monaco (6.6)
• UK BR is 12

Question 3

Define + give examples of world average, low and high extremes of death rate

Answer 3

• The number of deaths recorded in a single year per 1,000 people in the total population of a country or region.
• World average is 8/1000
• Highest - Lithuania 15,
• Lowest - Qatar 1.4 (immigration of youth).
• Germany 12, Russia 13.4; Ukraine 14 – ageing populations
• UK DR is 9.5

Question 4

Define + give examples of world average, low and high extremes of total fertility rate

Answer 4

• The average number of live births to women who have completed their families. (Replacement level fertility is around 2.1)
• World average TFR is 2.4 (was 5 in 1963);
• Lowest rates - Singapore 1.1; Hong-Kong 1.2; S.Korea 1.1; Japan 1.4; Germany 1.5; Russia 1.6; China 1.6
• Highest rates - parts of Africa/ Asia - poverty, insecurity, conflict, cultural attitudes. Niger 6.9; Angola 5.9. Stuck in stage 2 of DTM?
• UK TFR is is 1.9

Question 5

Define + give examples of world average, low and high extremes of Infant mortality rate

Answer 5

• The number of children dying in their first year per 1,000 live births.
• World average IMR is 31/1000
• Lowest rates in Japan 1.9; Singapore 1.6
• Highest rates in poor, war torn countries with less investment in sanitation and healthcare – Afghanistan 107; Somalia 88; Niger 68
  UK IMR is 4.3

Question 6

Define + give examples of world average, low and high extremes of life expectancy

Answer 6

• The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live, or the average age of people at death.
• World average is 70.5 years
• Highest LEs in Monaco 89; Japan 84; Canada 83
• Lowest in very poor, disaster prone, war torn countries, also those with HIV, malnutrition, alcoholism. Afghanistan 53; Russia highest gender disparity - male 66: female 78.
• UK LE is 81

Question 7

Economic factors affecting fertility rates: 1. Level of development/basis of economy

Answer 7

• The economic transition from unpaid subsistence farming to paid work in industry and services drives the demographic transition
• Socio-economic changes have incentivised people to have smaller families, facilitated by contraception
• Fertility falls mainly due to the changing economic roles of women (move from unpaid domestic/ farming to paid work) and children (at school not earning income) and urbanisation means people lack space/ time for children and must pay for childcare.

Question 8

Economic factors affecting fertility rates: 2. Levels of infant and child mortality

Answer 8

• Insecurity/sense of fatalism around survival usually results in more children overall, particularly if there are no pensions or welfare for elderly, due to perceived need to have kids to look after you in old age.

Question 9

Social factors affecting fertility rates 1. Traditional vs modern attitudes

Answer 9

• In rural subsistence societies women are often married off young (‘property’ traded by their fathers) and the survival of the male ‘name’ is seen as important so sons are favoured
• Polygamy is still very common – 1/3rd of women in West Africa are in polygamous marriages
• Child marriage is also common; these girls are likely to have many children since they start young and have little control over their fertility.

Question 10

Social factors affecting levels of fertility rates: 2. Role of religion

Answer 10

• Many Catholic countries (e.g. Southern Europe) have very low BRs due to patriarchal cultures (expectation a married woman with a baby will stay home) so women are reluctant to have kids if it means losing financial independence
• This is also true in Japan and Singapore
• More secular countries like France support women to have kids and work so TFR is higher.
• Iran is predominantly Muslim but has low TFR due to high levels of female education.

Question 11

Social factors affecting levels of fertility rates: 3. Access to, and take up of, contraception

Answer 11

• ‘Reproductive revolution’ whereby women can take control of their fertility means around 2/3rds of pregnancies today are ‘planned’.

Question 12

Social factors affecting levels of mortality: 4. Years in education, literacy levels, particularly of women

Answer 12

• A proxy for freedom of choice/ likely involvement in paid employment. More education for women correlates with fewer children.

Question 13

Political factors that affect fertility rates: 1. Government policy

Answer 13

• Pro or anti-natal, though may not be very effective
• Also, policies on welfare for young and old (e.g. pension and healthcare provision) can influence fertility rates indirectly
• France and Sweden, for eg, support their populations to have children with subsidised childcare and legislation to ensure paid parental leave, so they are nearer replacement level than other European countries.

Question 14

Factors that affect levels of mortality: age

Answer 14

• Infants under the age of one are more vulnerable to infection so IMR is a good proxy for level of development
• More developed countries can also provide better outcomes for premature babies, programmes of vaccinations and check-ups for children, and better services for the elderly which should increase life expectancy.
• Countries with a higher median age experience rising DRs as a higher proportion of the population becomes elderly.

Question 15

Factors that affect levels of mortality: gender

Answer 15

• Women can die from complications (bleeding, infections, eclampsia, obstructed labour) in pregnancy and childbirth
• They may also die from unsafe abortions
• Like infant mortality, Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is a good representation for development level. Are women getting adequate pre-natal check-ups and post-natal care? Are they well-nourished in pregnancy? Are most births attended by medical professionals and can women get interventions like caesareans if in distress?
• Africa and Asia account for 95% of maternal deaths
• Also, in countries where women have lower status, more women will die from domestic abuse and girls from infanticide/ selective abortion (there are around 130 million ‘missing’ women globally due to gendercide – equivalent to the entire UK population x 2, half of these missing girls are in the 0-14 age group, suggesting it is becoming increasingly imbalanced over time, not less).

Question 16

Economic factors that affect levels of mortality: 1. level of development

Answer 16

• More developed countries will have better infrastructure (e.g. rural clinics, hospitals, roads, sanitation, piped clean water supply)
• They will have more money to spend on training healthcare professionals and interventions such as vaccinations (prevent disease), antibiotics and expensive drugs to treat disease
• With generally higher incomes, individuals can afford better food, warm clothes, housing
• Government uses taxes to invest in safe water supply and sanitation, healthcare and education, welfare for most vulnerable, state pensions
• As development improves, more people will live longer and die of NCDs rather than communicable, maternal, neo- natal and nutritional disease.

Question 17

Social/economic factors that affect levels of mortality: 1. Living conditions

Answer 17

• Poverty and shanties which lack running water and sanitation will result in more diarrheal disease and water-borne illnesses such as cholera, overcrowding/ lack of ventilation can also result in spread of tuberculosis
• Even so, poor living conditions in LICs today don’t result in the high mortality levels of slums in the past in HICs because they at least understand the importance of keeping sewage out of the piped water supply, even if clean water is only available for a few hours a day, and children tend to be vaccinated and antibiotics are available.

Question 18

Social/economic (+ environmental?) factors that affect levels of mortality: 2. access to food

Answer 18

• Under or mal-nourished are more likely to succumb to infections
• Women who have little meat may be anaemic and more likely to die of complications in pregnancy and childbirth
• Don’t underestimate impact of frequent poor harvests and famines on HICs in the past - investment in mechanised farming, fertilisers and irrigation helped drive falls in DR.

Question 19

Social factors that affect levels of mortality: 1. Better education

Answer 19

• High levels of literacy means that people can (theoretically) research how to best look after themselves and their families

Question 20

Environmental factors that affect levels of mortality: 1. Physical environment

Answer 20

• Tropical climate may increase risk of parasitic and malarial disease
• Burning fuelwood to cook/ air pollution generally can increase risk of pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses

Question 21

Political factors that affect levels of mortality: 1. War/conflict

Answer 21

• The more conflict a country faces, the highter the DRs due to physical violence, damage to infrastracture and disease

Question 22

Social factors affecting levels of mortality: 3. lifestyle

Answer 22

• Diet
• Exercise
• Smoking (globally, 35% of men smoke and 6% of women)
• Alcohol intake

Question 23

Social factors affecting levels of mortality: 4. Healthcare provision and prevalence of certain diseases

Answer 23

• The levels of availability of healthcare as well as how affordable it is affects DRs
• Communicable (infectious disease, HIV etc) versus non-communicable (diseases of
  age and affluence – heart disease, stroke, diabetes, dementia)

Question 24

Political factors affecting levels of mortality: 1. Government campaigns

Answer 24

• Campaigns to reduce deaths from road traffic accidents and smoking
• Promotion of ‘five a day’
• Prevention of STDs such as HIV/ AIDS etc

Question 25

Interpret age/sex structure diagrams

See NOTES PAGE

Answer 25

• A fall in the BR reduces the breadth of the pyramid’s base (becomes ‘regressive’).
• A fall in the death rate – i.e. more people surviving to an older age, leads to an upwards stretching of the pyramid

Question 26

Define population structure

Answer 26

• The attributes/composition of the population in a country/area
• Usually age and gender (may also include information on ethnicity, marital status, family or household size)

Question 27

Useful comparisons between world average, developing and developed population stats

Answer 27

1. % population over 65 years old
   * World average - 9.5% (predicted to be 22% by 2050)
   * Developing e.g./extreme figure - under 3% in parts of Africa
   * Developed e.g./extreme figure - 29% in Japan (18.5% in the UK)
2. % population 0-14 years old
   * World average - 25%
   * Developing e.g./extreme figure - Around 50% in Niger
   * Developed e.g./extreme figure - 12% in Japan

Question 28

Define dependency

Answer 28

• Reliance for survival on support from others

Question 29

Define total dependency ratio

Answer 29

• The ratio of the number of people aged 0 -14 and 65+ years per 100 people of working age (15 - 64)
• Globally this is 53: 100
• This is worked out by: youth (under 15) + aged (65 and over) divided by working population (15-64) multiplied by 100

Question 30

Define youth dependency ratio

Answer 30

• The ratio of the number of people aged 0-14 per 100 people of working age (15-64)
• Globally this is 39: 100

Question 31

Define elderly dependency ratio

Answer 31

• The ratio of the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age (15-64).
• Globally this is 14: 100

Question 32

Define potential support ratio

Answer 32

• The number of working-age people (ages 15-64) per one elderly person (ages 65+).
• For example, in the USA, each retired person was supported by 42 workers in 1945.
• Now that figure is three and will be two by the time all ‘baby boomers’ are past retirement.
• Globally this is 7: 1