4.2: Demographic transition

Question 1

Changes in death rate and birth rate in stage 1

Answer 1

• DR is high fluctuating/stationary - explained by periodic famines, outbreaks of disease, poor hygiene, dirty water
• BR is very high

Question 2

Changes in death rate and birth rate in stage 2

Answer 2

• DR falls rapidly - explained by better nutrition following improved food production and transport, clean water, efficient sewerage system, improved medical care, vaccinations and antibiotics
• BR stays high - explained by people still compensating for high infant mortality, early marriage/ traditional roles of women, low levels of female employment, little access to contraception

Question 3

Changes in death rate and birth rate in stage 3

Answer 3

• DR falls more slowly - can be explained by improved standard of living for more members of society
• BR falls rapidly - can be explained by contraception more widely available, economic changes leading to more women in paid work and children at school, urbanisation

Question 4

Changes in death rate and birth rate in stage 4

Answer 4

• DR stabalises
• BR stabalises at a low level

Question 5

Changes in death rate and birth rate in stage 5

Answer 5

• DR stable or increases slightly due to ageing population
• BR falls bellow DR

Question 6

Examples of countries in (end of) stage 2 - early expanding

Answer 6

• Niger
• Uganda
• Afghanistan

Question 7

Examples of countries in stage 3 - late expanding

Answer 7

• Ghana
• Botswana
• Kenya

Question 8

Examples of countries in stage 4 - low fluctuating

Answer 8

• USA
• UK
• Norway
• Portugal

Question 9

Examples of countries in stage 5 (declining)

Answer 9

• Italy
• Russia
• Japan
• Greece

Question 10

Learn to draw the DTM from memory + examples for each stage

See NOTES PAGE

Answer 10

• The model is best thought of as a sort of pathway followed by most countries as they undergo economic development
• It starts with high rates of fertility and mortality
• Mortality then begins to fall, and it is some time before fertility does likewise
• Eventually both fertility and mortality flatten off at low levels.

Question 11

Assess the reliability of the DTM: 1. Trends in vital rates

Answer 11

• Data for actual countries show trends in falling vital rates are often much bumpier than the smooth declines suggested by the model
• E.g. the DR in many British cities rose initially, due to insanitary conditions from rapid growth (and cheap gin!), and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine and provision of sanitation and clean piped water
• The falling BR can also have brief upward reversals.

Question 12

Assess the reliability of the DTM: 2. Gradual or steep changes

Answer 12

• In today’s HICs, mortality decline was gradual, and linked to progress in living standards and advances in medicine
• However, in many LICs and MICs it has been more rapid due to import of modern technology
• e.g., international provision of vaccination programmes, antibiotics, insecticides (to control malaria), better maternal and neo-natal care and better farming practices even where many still lack basics of sanitation, clean water and decent housing
• In other words, many LICs have managed to reduce DRs (Stage 2) without experiencing significant economic development or industrialisation.

Question 13

Assess the reliability of the DTM: 3. Absolute numbers

Answer 13

• In LICs, absolute numbers in terms of population increase and growth rates have been far higher than in C19th Europe.

Question 14

Assess the reliability of the DTM: 4. Migration

Answer 14

• The model ignores the varying impacts of migration
• For example, in those countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (e.g. USA, Canada, Australia) the indigenous populations were reduced in number (by 90% in the Americas) so did not get to go through the DTM themselves.
• Another example of the role of migration is that if a country experiences an influx of migrants of child-bearing age with a culture of larger families, the BR will increase. Indeed, the UK entered a period of natural decrease in the 1970s, signalling the start of stage 5, but moved back into stage 4 due to migration, particularly after 2001
• This also illustrates a country may go into reverse in the model - something it did not originally predict

Question 15

Assess the reliability of the DTM: 5. Other factors of development

Answer 15

• Economic development is not the only important factor in driving down BRs
• Political, religious and cultural factors also affect fertility
• E.g. the one child policy in China led to a dramatic fall in fertility from 1980, well before economic growth took off
• Conversely, BRs are slow to fall where there is cultural pressure to have children and old-fashioned gender roles
• In summary, if the model is to be applied to a wider range of circumstances than the original, narrow, Europe-based sample it is vital that circumstances other than economic wealth are considered

Question 16

Assess the reliability of the DTM: 6. Definite/fixed trends?

Answer 16

• The model predicts that in time all countries will go through the four stages
• However, it is possible that some of the least developed countries (LDCs/ ‘The Bottom Billion’) are stuck at the beginning of stage 3, with continued high fertility, or may even go back (!) to stage 2 if DRs rise
• Fertility rates may remain high if they don’t experience industrialisation, improved education and the emancipation of women (choice over marriage, family size, opportunities to do paid work)
• Mortality rates may increase due to diseases, famine/ malnutrition and civil war

Question 17

Examples of the DTM model not applying to certain nations: 1. Rapid transition through stages e.g Bangladesh and India

Answer 17

• Fertility decline in some countries has been accelerated, with a more rapid transition through stages 2 and 3 as a result of imported medical knowledge/ technology and increased abilities of national government to promote effective family planning programmes
• For example, Bangladesh and India experienced aggressive promotion of contraception through government programs, which did not take place in the countries upon which the DTM is based.
• China’s one child policy is the most extreme example of government intervention.

Question 18

Examples of the DTM model not applying to certain nations: 2. Rapid transition through model e.g. in SE Asia

Answer 18

• NICs in SE Asia (e.g., Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia) have also progressed through the demographic transition more rapidly (with earlier fertility declines than might have been expected)
• This is due to rapid economic growth/ globalisation (e.g., employment through TNCs such as Nike outsourcing manufacturing and services such as call centres), particularly widening choices available to women.

Question 19

Examples of the DTM model not applying to certain nations: 3. Much faster decline in death rates e.g. sub-Saharan countries

Answer 19

• Many sub-Saharan countries experienced a much faster decline in death rates (stage 2) than took place in 19th century Europe because they could import medical technologies (via NGO and charitable inputs)
• However, many cannot progress through stage 3 to stage 4 because birth rates remain high
• The 19th century Europeans found manufacturing employment in their towns, but many sub-Saharan countries have experienced ‘urbanisation without industrialisation’
• Without such job opportunities, people may not see the benefit of fewer children so the move through stage 3 to 4 is delayed
• Another difference is cultural and religious differences that maintain traditional attitudes to women’s role
• There is also nothing to guarantee that death rates won’t rise again, due to disease, conflict or famine (Malthus’ ‘checks to population growth’).

Question 20

How is the DTM still useful

Answer 20

• It can certainly be used to describe the experiences to date of many countries with mortality falling before fertility. Then we can examine the factors driving these changes.
• Use of the model enables the future transition of ‘developing’ countries to be predicted. Timings may be different, either slowed or accelerated, but the model is useful in enabling country comparisons to take place
• It highlights the fact that the experiences of countries in the rest of the world cannot entirely replicate the experiences of HICs – different ESPE conditions exist

Question 21

Compare the UK and Thailand: current BRs and DRs

Answer 21

UK: population 67 mil
* BR: 11
* DR: 9
* TFR: 1.6
Thailand: population 69 mil
* BR: 11
* DR: 8
* TFR: 1.5

Question 22

Compare the UK and Thailand: Stage 1/2

Answer 22

UK: Transition from stage 1 to 2 began around 1740-60.
* Stage 2 ended around 1880.
* Stage 2 took over 100 years.
* Medical advances that reduced mortality were spread out over a long period. Jenner – smallpox vaccine 1798, TB treated by early 20th century. Over 200 years to fall from over 30/1000 to less than 15
Thailand: Transition from stage 1 to 2 began around 1920
* Stage 2 ended around 1970.
* Stage 2 took 50 years.
* After WW2 there were increased global initiatives to help development – imported large body of existing medical knowledge, vaccines and sanitary advances. DR fell from 35/1000 in 1945 to less than 10 by 1970.

Question 23

Compare the UK and Thailand: Stage 3

Answer 23

UK: Stage 3 began around 1880, ended around 1930-40.
* Stage 3 took around 60 years
* Urbanisation, growth in female literacy and participation in paid work. Raising children became more expensive as length of time in school increased.
Thailand: stage 3 began around 1970, ended around 2000
* Stage 3 took only 30 years.
* TFR in 1969 was 6.5 and 3% growth. Few using contraception, rural villagers still regarded kids as an asset. 1970 – National Family Planning Programme launched. Public info., education, health centres, free contraception, 72% contraceptive use by 1999. TFR at 1.7 and 0.8% growth. Female literacy rose - marry later, use contraception, more employable. Urbanisation – Bangkok grew 5% pa in 1970s. Children as an expense – education, healthcare, consumer goods, grandparents in rural areas so childcare costs increase.

Question 24

Compare the UK and Thailand: stage 4

Answer 24

UK: Transition from Stage 3 to 4:
1930-40
Thailand: Transition from Stage 3 to 4:
2000

Question 25

Explain what is meant by a youthful population

Answer 25

• Caused by high BRs, fast population growth and large number of people in reproductive and working age range

Question 26

Issues caused by youthful populations

Answer 26

• Availability of enough jobs in formal sector
• Lack of decent housing (growth of shanties)
• Dependency of large numbers of children
• Lack of infrastructure, adequate schools and healthcare
• Possibility of unrest if lots of young unemployed men who view political system as corrupt or takeover of shanties by youthful drug gangs in Rio
• Other examples could be Nigeria – Lagos and Makoko slum, Malawi – think about Jenet and Dunster and their 11 children in extreme poverty. Pressure for mass migration from rural to urban areas and from poor to wealthier countries.

Question 27

Explain what is meant by ageing population

Answer 27

• Caused by low BRs, population stagnation or decline, large number of people aged over 65

Question 28

Issues of an ageing population

Answer 28

• Dependency of this ‘grey’ population causes social and economic issues, but these can be mitigated to some extent - ageing presents some opportunities as well as challenges.

Question 29

Explain how the ageing population can be seen as a problem of success

Answer 29

• It shows that in developed countries, life expectancies continue to rise and healthcare has never been so good
• Poorer countries are catching up, as fertility rates fall and life expectancies also increase
• We are reaching the end of a period of rapid expansion of the human race, and predictions are that global population will stabilise around 2100, and begin to fall in number after that.

Question 30

The evidence of ageing populations

Answer 30

• Globally, 25% of people are currently age 0-14 and 9.5% are over 65. The UN predicts 16% will be over 65 by 2050
  (1.5bn people)
• The main continents affected by ageing currently are Europe, Australasia and North America, plus parts of Asia – in other words, HICs in stages 4 and 5 of the DTM
• In 2020, some countries with high percentages of people over 65 are Japan (29%), Germany (23%), Italy (22%), France (20%)
• The UK population currently has around 18% over 65. It is projected to be around 25% by 2040
• The population over pension age is expected to increase by 1/3rd between 2017 and 2042.

Question 31

Explain how pensions work

Answer 31

• Nowadays most developed countries have systems to provide pensions on
  retirement in old age
• In many poorer countries, support for the old is still mainly provided through the family. In the UK, the State Pension depends on an individual’s National Insurance (NI) contribution history
• The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today
• Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them
• Since the late 1990s there has been more paid in NI contributions than has been paid out in contributory benefits, including the state pension. However, due to persistent negative real earnings growth, less NI is being paid by workers and employers. If the money ran out, the Treasury would probably have to dip into money coming in from general income tax to pay state pensions.

Question 32

Implications of an ageing population for government spending: increasing the pensions burden

Answer 32

• An aging population means the trend for the bill for contributory benefits - of which the state pension is the largest component - will be upwards
• The government is therefore gradually raising the age at which you can get the state pension. When the State Pension was introduced in 1948, a 65-year-old could expect to spend 13.5 years in receipt of it – around 23% of their adult life. In 2017, a 65-year-old can now expect to live for another 22.8 years, or 33.6% of their adult life.

Question 33

Explain why more healthcare (thus government spending) is required for older people

Answer 33

• Age is the single greatest risk factor for many diseases. A tumour is 100 times more likely to occur at the age of 65 than at 35
• Also increased dentistry needs – increased demand for replacement fillings and care for eroded teeth
• For those living independently over 85 – 1/3rd need help climbing stairs and 25% with bathing (social care)

Question 34

Implications of an ageing population for government spending: increasing healthcare burden
Think about: percentages of spending from the government, stats for European countries, what the government can do to pay for pensions and healthcare

Answer 34

• The Institute for Fiscal Studies has projected that, by 2021-22, 10% of health spending across the UK would go to those over the age of 85 (3% of the population), 32% would go to those aged 65 to 84 (16% of the population) and
  35% would go to those between the age of 30 and 64 (45% of the population).
• The average bill for public pensions and health care for the elderly is approaching 20% GDP of Germany and France. By 2030, Italy will be above 30%. Other ‘vote winning’ government payments to the elderly include free bus pass, winter fuel allowance, cheaper rail travel etc.
• In Germany, France and Japan there are already barely two taxpayers supporting each retired pensioner. In Italy, less than 1.3.
• Retirement numbers are rising in America. In 1945, each retired person was supported by 42 workers. Now that figure is three, and will be two by the time all boomers are past retirement.
• To pay for pensions and healthcare, government may cut spending on youth services such as education, and reduce investment in defence and infrastructure. If BRs are also falling, they can reduce spending on maternity units in hospitals and ante/ post-natal care.

Question 35

Explain how the elderly are a ‘market to be exploited’

Answer 35

• In the UK, just under half the population are currently paying into private pensions as well as the state pension. Any government spending on pensions will be spent in its turn!
• Elderly consume various goods and services – in the rich world the ‘silver market’ or ‘third age economy’ is huge
• Constant ads in the US aimed at the elderly - retirement homes, private healthcare, travel, pets.
• Have savings in banks and pension funds, cash from downsizing big houses they no longer need.
• The money is all available for purchases and investment
• When Japan’s domestic economy was close at a standstill in the 1990s it remained the world’s largest exporter of capital – thanks in considerable part to pensioners’ savings. Now funding steelworks in Malaysia, forestry projects
  in Brunei, mines in Indonesia and electronics factories in China.
• Their wealth will ultimately be available for the next generation – family members, or through state inheritance taxes to society in general.

Question 36

Explain how growing elderly population can be a cause for concern

Answer 36

• In the UK, the population of state pension age is predicted to increase by 32% over the next 25 years, while the population of working age is predicted to increase by only 14%.
• The ratio of ‘workers’ to people aged over 65 is projected to decline from around 3.2 in 2000 to 1.7 by 2050.
  There will be an increasing tax burden on working people to fund pensions/ healthcare
• Increased need for elderly services – hospitals, residential homes and care workers.
• Current generation of baby boomer pensioners is wealthier on average than previous generations of elderly but
  will this continue? Will pensioner Millenials and Gen Z’s be as affluent?

Question 36

Explain how the elderly are a ‘market to be exploited’ in the UK

Answer 36

• n the UK, the total spending by households headed by someone aged 65+ was £145 billion (2013)
• This can be compared to £102 bn in 2009 - an increase of 33% in five years (not adjusted for inflation)
• Older households (65+) contributed about £61 billion a year to the UK economy in 2013/14
• The Age UK Chief Economist’s report found that £37 billion of the total amount came from employment and £11.4 billion from informal caring. Child care contributed £6.6 billion. Nearly £6 billion came from volunteering.

Question 37

Counter-arguments to the idea that growing elderly population is a ‘cause for concern’

See NOTES PAGE for more detail

Answer 37

• Retirement age
• Immigration
• Women entering the workforce
• Government policies

Question 38

How can immigration solve ageing

Answer 38

• Skilled workforce
• Population redistributed instead of growing - more environmentally stable

Question 39

Links between population and development: changes in infant mortality rate and life expectancy and life expectancy over time

Answer 39

• As a country develops, birth rates tend to fall.
• See ‘factors affecting mortality’ for changes in IMR
• Death rates fall and life expectancy increases.
• Eventually death rates rise again as the population ages (i.e. a greater proportion of the population become elderly as life expectancy increases and birth rates fall).