4.2 voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
influence of the media
the press
- no regulation
- ‘free and independent’
- headlines may just reinforce voting intentions rather than be highly influential
- circulation has declined radpidly in the last decade… brings into question its influence
- eg. the sun changing allegiance between 1992-1997 (major-Blair)
influence of the media
media + opinion pols
- growth of misinformation and opinion pieces over fact eg. Donald Trump
- most newspapers have a strong political bias, however some broadcasters eg. BBC have a legal duty to be neutral
influence of the media
television
- all parties use it, but it doesn’t really provide a significant advantage
- importance remained consistent in the media
- bbc, itn, channel 4 supposedly neutral
- eg. 2017: may refused to join TV debates, caroline Lucas ‘you can’t say its the most important election of our lifetime and not be bothered to show up’
- televised debates have become a common feature of elections over the last decade
influence of the media
social media
way of engaging with the public
- many think it helped labour in 2017 due to left leaning
- encourages populism
- left wing bias in some areas… though this may be changing with the rise of reform uk
influence of the media
cambridge analytica
- supposedly used data to change voting behaviour
- scandalous
- established in 2014
- the company:
1. took facebook data
2. identified target groups
3. designed targetted messaging to influence opinoon
personal data belonging to millions of facebok users was harvested
influence of the media
opinion polls
**- the polling council **investigated their performance. concluding inaccurate sampling + statistical methods
- current polls usually overestimate labour
- polling data affects voting behaviour, especially in close elections eg, 2015
influence of the media
in 2019
- parties accused of exploiting the toxic atmosphere by avoiding scrutiny and refusing to engage with difficult events
- continued claims of misinformation spread via social media
- public service broadcasters criticised for polluting debate and maintaining incivility.
do campaigns influence the result of a General Election?
yes!!
examples: 2017, 1992, 1974
2017: Jeremy Corbyn’s rallies and popular manifesto commitments vs tehreasa may’s uninspiring campaign appearances.
- vote share increased (labour) to 40%
- 1992: John Major’s state managed events in 1992, vs Kinnocks’ hubris - unexpected conservative victory
- 1974: Jeremy Thorpe exploited discontent with Heath and Wilson, vote share increased to 11.8%
do campaigns influence the result of a General Election?
yes!!
what do some critics say?
- campaigns challenge attitudes
- growth in partisan dealignment suggests campaigns increasingly matter - flexible voting patterns
do campaigns influence the result of a General Election?
no..
examples: 2017, 1964, 1970
2017: poor conservative campaign, yet they still increased their share of the vote from 2015-2017… (36.9%-42.%)
- this equalled the shae of the vote Thatcher achieved in 83 with a MUCH stronger campaign
1964: Wilson’s dynamic campaign, comparing himself to JFK vs Douglas-Home’s low-key earnestness proved more appealing
- wilson’s share of the vote only increased 0.2%
1970: Heath’s bland campaign won the election over wilson
do campaigns influence the result of a General Election?
no..
influence?
can be exaggerated. Campaigns don’t usually CHANGE opinions, rather reinforce or strengthen existing ones.
social factors
gender
- conservatives used to often win the ‘housewives’ vote with their economic policies
- recently, largely insignificant. With women slightly more likely to vote labour and vice versa
- labour used to be popular with male trade union members
social factors
region
- traditional voting lines changing in recent elections eg. in 2024, the SNP lost 39 seats in Scotland
- wealth, income are not evenly distributed in the UK or in smaller areas
- battleground areas: midlands, areas of London… more ‘swing’ voters and where labour/cons focus winning marginal seats
social factors
education
2017: issue based voting
- no. of DE class voters, who are usually less highly educated, increased dramatically for conservaitves (eg. 52% of voters with no qualifications voted for conservatives)
- traditionally, higher educational qualifications = higher social class - conservative, but this is changing
social factors
age
- younger voters: more likely to be renting, so more likely to vote labour.
- younger voters care more about the environment, social justice, and equality. they are more likely to be radical, but less likely to actually vote on these issues
- older voters: more likely to have a mortgate - more likely to vote conservative
- older voters are also more likely to vote.
