4.1 voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
1983 general election
outlying factors
falklands war, the cold war, the economy
1983 general election
falklands war
- victory increased favour of thatcher. Tories outscored labour by 19 points after victory
- labour seen as weak
- generated patriotism
- michael foot spoke in favour of the military, but divisions within labour argued otherwise
1983 general election
the economy
- thatcher incredibly unpopular due to her monetarism policies
- she lowered interest rates, so people didnt invest or borrow money.
- low economic growth and unemployment were blamed on the labour government
1983 general election
the cold war
- uk was going to replace old (polaris) submarines with triden 3 bought from the US
- michael foot spoke against this, making him more unpopular
- arms race also escalating
1983 general election
media biases
- the sun, daily express, daily mail, daily telegraph, the times (C)
- daily mirror (L)
- Guardian (LD)
1983 general election
party policy: conservatives
thatcherism, privatisation, free market economy, reducing trade union power, anti-socialism (arms race)
1983 general election
party policy: labour
- nuclear disarmament
- nationalisation, strengthen workers rights, increase public spending, welfare + public services
- progressive taxation discouraged higher tax bracket voters
1983 general election
party policy: liberal democrats
pro europeanism
- cnetreism: free market economics, social liberalism, freedom + welfare state
1983 general election
voting behaviour: conservatives won lots of…
labour dominant northern england
1983 general election
voting behaviour: highest turnout (age and location)
turnout highest in people aged above 55.
turnout in leicestershire north west: 81.1%
1983 general election
techniques used in campaigns: conservatives
- sent out 1000 copies of labours programme to their supporters
- membership of the EEC, nuclear deterrent, trade union reform, privatisation
- urban areas targeted
- defence, employment, economic prosperity
1983 general election
techniques used in campaigns: labour
- exposed tory documents including a claim from Foot’s leader Deputy Dennis Healy that Thatcher lied about unemployment trends
- focused on areas that had been economically impacted by Thatcher
1983 general election
techniques used in campgins: Liberal Democrats
- openness to a coalition
- grassroots campaigning
1997 general election
wider political context: John major
- small majority in 1992
- cartoons of a grey uncharismatic man
- lack of control of his party
- described ministers as ‘bastards’
- withdrew the whip from rebels
- divided over thatcherism/one-nation
- ‘cash for questions’ affair in the 1990s where 2 conservative MPs, neil hamilton and timothy smith were accused of taking cash bribes from Ian Greer lobbyists to ask questions in parliament
1997 general election
gender
- women 44% labour vs 32% conservative
- men 45% vs 31% conservativr
- public sector women voted more for labour presumably because of what Thatcher did to the public sector
1997 general election
age
- 1/2 of 18-44 year olds voted labour
- 82% of black voters voted labour
- 12 points ahead for 25-44 year olds
- 4 points ahead for 55-64 year olds.
1997 general election
media
the sun - rupert murdoch backed labour
the times decreased conservative support
1992 labour defeat blamed on media bias
1997 general election
opposition: cash for questions affair
2 conservative MPs accepeted payments for lobbying
- 1 resigned, Neil Hamilton and Ian Greer sought to clear their names in court prolonging the scandal
-
1997 general election
oppostion: campaign and divisions
conservative divisions over EU relationship
‘going back to basics’ campaign
traditional family values
1997 general election
spin doctors
- alaister campbell and other journalists ensured media stories conveyed a targeted message in favour of labour
- labour managed the media and political stories much more effectively than conservtives
1997 general election
outcome
conservatives lost more than half their MPs
Labour won 418 seats
conservatives won 165 seats
Lib Dems won 46 seats
landslide victory, but the lowest turnout since 1935 (71%)
1997 general election
policy: labour pledge cards
- cut class sizes to 30 for 5-7 year olds
- fast track punishment for persistent young offenders
- cut nhs waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients as a first steo
- no rise on income tax
1997 general election
policy: conservatives
- reducing role of the state
- didnt reflect uk valuest
- tax allowance to encourage nuclear families - where a anon working partner could give tax free allowance to working spouse
2017 General Election
campaign techniques labour
- improving the nhs mostly
although: - labour was totally divided. Especially over suspicions that corbyn was a secret brexiteer.
- cabinet was very left wing, so his manifesto suited them well
- corbyn seen as unelectable by the moderates
Campaign techniques
what were labour’s approval ratings after Thereasa May took over
- when thereasa may became MP, corbyn’s net approval ratings were -42
- ## a month after the elections, July 2017, Labour were a couple % points ahead of the conservative polls
campaign techniques 2017
campaign techniques 2017 conservatives - image - initially, then after campaigning?
- initially a strong leader in may
- she was presented as a safe pair of hands for brexit
- net satisfaction dropped when she started campaigning, it seemed highly controlled and she refused to join debates
- she seemed to struggle to change the party’s image, and was reluctant to engage with the public
- 33.7% of conservative tweets related to EU and terrorism
campaign techniques 2017
campaign techniques 2017 liberal democrats
campaigned most over staying in the EU
campaign techniques 2017
campaign techniques 2017 green
protecting the environemnt
campaign techniques 2017
campaign techniques 2017 UKIP
leaving the EU
role of the media 2017
role of the media 2017
conservatives
thereasa may refused to take part in tv debates. Home secretary amber rudd once sent to speak on her behalf.
role of the media 2017
role of the media 2017
labour
hostile towards corbyn - with the exception of the daily mirror
- social media loved corbyn, because of young voters
- attacks on corbyn from the sun actually boosted approval ratings
- the guardian even proposed tactically anti-tory voting (lib dems/greens)
outcome 2017
outcome 2017
- conservatives won 317 seats and 42.3% of the vote
- labour won 262 seats and 40% of the vote
- liberal democrats won 12 seats and 7.4% of the vote
opinion polls 2017
opinion polls 2017 conservative
- showed conservatives winning comofrtably, which was incorrect
- so, some conservative voters may have riskily voted for a smaller party or not at all.
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 age
- 66% of 18-19 year olds voted labour
- 57% of 18-19 year olds
- 84% of 70+ year olds
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 region
- conservatives gained lots of UKIP votes in the north east
- followed expected lines though mostly
- the SNP lost seats to conservatives and labour
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 employment
- conservatives 39 points ahead among retirees
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 class
- class not really a good indicator anymore
- labour 4% behind among ABC1 voters
- did best among DE voters
- conservatives did best among C2 voters
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 gender
- women slightly leaning conservative, but not a major tell
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 ethnicity
- 65% of ethnic minority voters voted labour
- this is part of a long-term trend
voting behaviour 2017
voting behaviour 2017 education
support for conservatives decreased the more educated a voter was
- low education qualifications - 22% led by conservatives (GCSE or equivalent)
- high education qualifications (degree or equivalent) - 17% led labour
impact of party policies on the outcome 2017
party policies conservatives
- means tested winter fuel payments
- new grammar schools
- bringing back fox hunting
- removing free school meals
- dementia tax
impact of party policies on the outcome 2017
impact of party policies on the outcome conservatives
welathier pensioners who usually voted conservative reacted negatively to the dementia tax
- because it meant someone suffering from alzheimer’s caused a bigger need for social care and would therefore be disadvantaged when passing their home to their children
2017
party policies labour
- £250b infrastructure investment
- 4 new bank holidays
- minimum wage to £10 by 2020
- scrap student tuition fees
- 50p tax rate for those earning over £123,00
impact of party policies on the outcome
impact of party policies on the outcome labour
public liked the policies, despite the medias negative coverage.
- there was a slight concern over where the money would come from, but these fears were settled by labour releasing a costing document explaining lots of the policies would simply pay for themselves.
