week 8 ch12 Judgement & Reasoning Flashcards
Judgement
The process by which people draw conclusions from encountered evidence. (“evidence” may be very loosely interpreted by some)
The case of Elliot.
Had brain damage in orbitofrontal complex, was completely unemotional and completely indecisive. Emotion can play large part in decision making.
Frequency Estimate
How often an event has occurred in the past.
Attribute Substitution
a strategy where you rely on easily accessed data (eg. personal encounters) and let it serve as a proxy for the information you really need (but is not readily available).
Availability
how easily one can come up with examples
Availability Heuristic
form of attribute substitution where Availability is substituted for Frequency. eg. Which route fastest?how often are there traffic jams on route A cf route B? Don’t know, so substitute with I have been in traffic jam on route A twice and never on route B therefore, judge route B as option to take.
Representative Heuristic
where substitute Probability with Resemblance.eg. What is the Probability applicant will work out well?Should base on cv and interview etc BUT interviewer does a quick judgement based on does interviewee resemble someone who did/did not work out.
The Representative Heuristic capitalizes on homogeneity and expects individuals to be representative of category.
Heuristic
an efficient strategy that usually (but not always)leads to the correct answer/decision.
Bias in Availability
If asked are there more words beginning with ‘R’ or are there more words with ‘R’ as the third letter? Most people will say 1st option, but would be wrong. Because our memory is more organised towards finding words with a starting letter, we tend to more readily find these examples. ie we have a Bias of Availability which leads to an error in judging Frequency.
Judging Frequency
people regularly overestimate frequency of events (eg emotional or distinctive events are more easily remembered), therefore judged as more frequent.
When asked to remember either 6 or 12 times when were personally assertive, the 12 group judged themselves as less assertive (Not because they were, but because had been given a harder task,struggled to come up with 12, so judged themselves as less assertive).
the Gambler’s fallacy
erroneous belief that eg a coin tossed heads 6 times, must (or way more likely) to come up tales next to “balance out” But really, every toss is 50/50.
Assumption of Homogeneity
people commit the error of reasoning from a single case, to the entire population.
TEST YOURSELF
- what is Attribute Substitution?
- In the Availability Heuristic, what is the information you need, and what attribute do you use as a substitute?
- In the Representative heuristic, what is the information you need, and what attribute do you use as a substitute?
- What is a “man who” argument? Why are they often misleading?
- using readily available information (which may not be as accurate), to stand for information which is harder to access.
- In Availability Heuristic, need frequency and substitute for availability
- in Representative Heuristic, need probability but substitute for resemblance. Relies on expectation of conforming to homogeneity.
- “Man who” arguments are singular cases pointed out as examples. eg “I knew someone who told me….”They are misleading because are often the teller’s only experience with situation yet seem like personal knowledge. Is an example of citing one case and expecting that it reflects entire population.
Covariation
is the degree to which 2 variables vary together. eg As exercise increases, so too does stamina.
BUT people often detect a covariation or relationship berween two factors whish is not actually true. eg increase in joggers and funeral parlours.
Biased Data
If people only consider a subset of facts, and this subset is skewed by expectaion, then bias in, will = bias out (biased judgement).
Confirmation Bias
the tendency to be more alert to evidence which confirms one’s beliefs
Base Rate
information about how frequently something occurs in general.People can often follow base rate as an accurte probability if this is the only information given. BUT often people end up ignoring base rate information and njust go on diagnostic information if given (shoulld combine both to give reasonable judgement).
Diagnistic information
information about a specific case.
Type 1 Thinking
fast, easy, rapid thinking. Includes heuristic thinking. Is not necessarily inferior, can be very efficient, but it is not always accurate.
Type 2 Thinking
slower, more effortful thinking. Sometimes called Analytic Thinking.
The two types of thinking seem to involve different brain regions. It is thought that maybe it is a choice which way to think about somerthing.
The Dual Process Model
proposes that there is Type 1 and Type 2 thinking and that one can switch between the two.
Base Rate
More likely to neglect base rate if given as a percentage or probability. BUT if given as Fequency (eg 12 out of every 1000), then more likely to pay attention to it
Randomly chanceful
People more likely sceptical of a finding if highlighted as randomly chanceful.
Education
plays a part in judgement and some basic appreciation of statistics is beneficial.
Impact of Sample Size on Judgemenmt Domain
Most would be pretty happy making judgements on an element’s properties based on one sample, about a bird species’ colour based on a few samples, and how likely a tribesman is to be obese, based on eg 20 samples.
Cognitive Reflection Tests
Use questions which seem to have obvious answers, BUT these are wrong-need to be able to think more deeply to get the correct answer. People who generally do better on these testes are more likely in general to be Type 2 thinkers, and appear more analytical in their moral judgements.
TEST YOURSELF
- What are the differences b/n Type 1 and 2 thinking?
- what are some of the factors that can allow/encourage Type 2 thinking?
- Type 1 is rapid. Includes taking “short cuts” and making assumptions.
Type 2 is slower and more considered. - Factors which may encourage Type 2 are, Natural inclination, cognitive reflective tasks, education, with enormous import on outcome.
Induction
Process through which make predictions about new cases, based on observed cases.
Deduction
Process starting with cliams or assertions that you accept as true, and ask ‘what follows from these premises’?What implications are there from these claims, on my other beliefs or actions? Deductions help beliefs stay in touch with reality.
Disconfirmational Evidence
is often far more beneficial to reaching understanding than confirmatory, but people often have a confirmatory bias.
Confirmational Bias
can be very pervasive. Includes, but is not limited to:
a) People assessing a hypothesis are more likely to seek confirmatory evidence
b) when disconfirming evidence available, people often fail to use it and do not adjust their beliefs accordingly
c) often accept confirmatory evidence without alteration, yet for disconfirmatory evidence tend to re-interpret and such reduce its impact
d) confirmatory evidence more easily remembered and remembrance of disconfirmatory is distorted, such that significance is reduced.
e) people often fail to consider an alternative hypothesis which explains data equally well
Belief Perseverance
Maintaining belief even when presented with undeniable disconfirming evidence.
The “Balanced” Presentation
When presented with 2 opposing views, even when clearly told 95% of experts support one view, people seem to find it more challenging to find the concensus amongst the experts.
TEST YOURSELF
What is the role of confirmational bias in producing belief perseverance?
The many forms of confirmational bias (forgetting/misremembering disconfirmational evidence, re-interpreting disconfirmational evidence, only looking for confirmational evidence etc) enables one to ignore/overlook disconfirmational evidence such that one can cling to one’s own belief.
Syllogism
Form of deductive reasoning. usually with a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion. eg All humans are mortal (major premise), I am a human (minor premise), therefore, I am mortal (conclusion).
eg of a CORRECT syllogism
All M are B.
All D are M
Therefore, all D are B.
eg of INCORRECT syllogism
All P are M.
All S are M.
Therefore, all S are P.
4 Card Task
4 cards, info both sides. Which to turn over to prove/disprove the theory? Often used to test logic. Need to work out whether turning the card over will be potentially meaningless, accept hypothesis or disprove it. Content of the question, may make logical thinking clearer for different individuals.
Belief Bias
more likely to judge a syllogism’s conclusion as logical, if fits with one’s own belief system.
Utility
the value placed on an outcome. Differs for different people.eg for having dinner at a restaurant, the utility may be have a good feed, get night off cooking, be seen out and about,
Decisions
usually made on cost/benefit analysis and utility maximisation.
Framing of Outcomes
By stating outcomes as +ve or -ve, is possible to completely change how someone votes. By framing a choice in terms of losses, most will choose the gamble to avoid the loss. But when frame in terms of gains, most will elect not to gamble, and hold on to what is secure.
Opt In /Opt Out
if given choice to opt in or opt out, would you? eg Different countries have either Opt in or Opt out schemes for organ donors.
Opt In = you are not an organ donor unless you specifically Opt IN.
Opt Out= you are an organ donor unless you specifically opt out.
Germany (Opt In, has 12 organ donors)
Austria (opt Out, has 99% donors).
Reason-based Choice
Theory that decisions are based on what makes us feel good. Relies on justification for decision. Justification for a decsion (and the decision itself) may change, depending upon how the question is framed.
Somatic Markers
Bodily responses and their sensations (eg fear, arousal etc). If using somatic markers to make decision, will opt for more +ve than -ve feelings. When orbitofrontal cortex is damaged, may lose ability to interpret emotions, and this form of decision making is impaired.
Affective Forecasting
are predictions on how one will feel in a future situation. Can usually tell whether one will feel good or bad in a possible future scenario BUT usually overestimate how long such feelings might last. Also usually predict current feelings will last longer than they actually do. ie people usually underestimate their ability to adapt, and tend to avoid things which they would have quickly gotten used to, and spend money on things which provide short term pleasure only.People often have less regret when decisions turn out badly, than might have anticipated.
