Week 6

Question 1

What are heuristics and biases in cognitive thinking

Answer 1

Mechanisms where we create mental shortcuts for decision-making and efficiency

Speeds up our processing

Does not always yield the most accurate output

Question 2

What does using heuristics lead to?

Answer 2

Faster Processing
Quick Decision Making
Reduced Effort

Question 3

What is a salience bias?

Answer 3

People pay more attention to “salient” information
Big signs, loud noises
Having your company name titled “AA autos” has you placed at the top of yellow pages which makes it easy to locate

Question 4

What is an example of an arithmetic calculation?

Answer 4

trying to calculate 48x52…… it would make it easier to round up/down and calculate 50x50

Use a short cut, not always accurate but you can get a neighbourhood number

Question 5

What is availability Heuristics?

Answer 5

What comes to mind immediately is deemed more significant
Important to not overlook all information present.
ex: more roadside accidents than air travel accidents, yet people are more afraid of flying

Need to read between lines and review all information available

Question 6

What is confirmation bias?

Answer 6

Looking for things to confirm your choice
e.g. bad first impression (does not shake hand or make eye contact) may prevent you from seeing any future positive qualities

The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or thoughts

Question 7

Explain reverse causal reasoning

Answer 7

The false belief is that if event a causes event b, event b will also cause event a.

If A = B, then B = A
NOT TRUE ^^^
ex; flight from Toronto to Rome = 8 hours and 30 min, flight from Rome to Toronto is 9 hours and 35 minutes

Question 8

Explain Overconfidence in Diagnosis

Answer 8

The gambler’s fallacy

Everything I touch turns to gold

Not everything is in your favour

Question 9

Explain The Bandwagon Effect

Answer 9

“Just because everyone likes it so do I”

Get more than half of employers to follow job safety, others should also follow

Ex: getting celebrities to advocate for covid 19 vaccines

Question 10

Explain Survivors bias

Answer 10

Information diagnosis only on survival information

Case Study: WWII Aircrafts
- only repaired sections on the plane where there are the most bullet holes
- really should protect parts without any bullet holes
- aircraft successfully survived with bullet holes, aircraft may not survive if hit in a different area

Question 11

Explain Selective Perception Bias

Answer 11

The tendency to focus on only some aspects of the environment but ignore the others

For example, a teacher may have a favourite student because they are biased by in-group favouritism. The teacher ignores the student’s poor attainment.

Question 12

Explain the overestimation of small numbers and underestimation of large numbers

Answer 12

You will overestimate something that’ll probably not happen because in reality it’s small (so you running a random red light and thinking you’ll get caught immediately is an overestimation since in reality there aren’t that many police cars on the road to catch you)

underestimation: you think something probably won’t happen but in reality, it is pretty likely (so you writing a paper and plagiarizing and thinking since the prof has to mark so many they won’t notice but in reality, they will catch you)

Question 13

Explain the ostrich effect

Answer 13

People often avoid negative information, including feedback that could help them monitor their goal progress. Instead of dealing with the situation, we bury our heads in the sand, like ostriches.

e.g., ignoring deadlines for our projects

Question 14

Explain outcome bias

Answer 14

only looking at a specific outcome and ignoring the conditions/environment
ex: getting an A in biomechanics but the prof gave an easy exam

Question 15

Explain Placebo Bias

Answer 15

Using a person’s mind to convince them of something that is not there

Question 16

Explain Anchoring Bias

Answer 16

People pay more attention to the first piece of information they see

Question 17

Explain choice supportive bias

Answer 17

Favouring one option more than the other
e.g. political candidates, apple vs android

Question 18

Explain Blind Spot Bias

Answer 18

the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people, or to be able to identify more cognitive biases in others than in oneself.
“Everyone is so stupid” but are you also stupid?
Bias for yourself

Question 19

What is the hierarchy of controls?

Answer 19

The hierarchy of controls is used to determine how to implement feasible and effective control solutions
Most effective at the top, least effective at the bottom

Question 20

What are the levels of the hierarchy of controls

Answer 20

Elimination, substitution, engineering controls, administrative controls and PPE

Question 21

What are the levels of the hierarchy of controls?

Answer 21

Elimination, substitution, engineering controls, administrative controls and PPE

Question 22

Explain Elimination from the hierarchy of controls

Answer 22

Is it possible to eliminate this hazard?
Installing hardware lines
Common to get a beehive on top of the control power
Instead of repair, replace completely

Question 23

Explain substitution in the hierarchy of controls

Answer 23

Is it possible to replace the hazard?
Example:
Replacing benzene (causes cancer) → toluene, cyclohexane, ketones
Replacing lead-based paint → titanium white

Question 24

Explain Engineering controls in the hierarchy of controls

Answer 24

Occupation risk there, but add technology to assist
Can we use machinery and devices to remove the hazard?
Example: replacing a screwdriver with a power drill
Ex: changing tires for a heavy vehicle
Use a heavy lift device to assist

Question 25

Explain administrative controls in the hierarchy of controls

Answer 25

Can we isolate hazardous work practices and/or the hazard from workers not involved in the work or the general work areas?
Example: treating a patient with Aids and/or covid-19
Putting risk in the corner - not adding anything

Question 26

What personal protective equipment (PPE)

Answer 26

Is it possible to provide PPE that will protect employees from hazards?
Relying on PPE to protect your employees is the last line of defence against a workplace injury
Too often, PPE is forgotten, ill-fitting or does not provide the appropriate level of protection
Ex: nurses and doctors wearing safety masks and shields still got infected with covid

Question 27

What is risk? What are the types of risk?

Answer 27

A situation involving exposure to danger

Types: negative and positive

Question 28

What is negative risk?

Answer 28

Potential problems that might occur in the project and that might impede project success
Sometimes called threats
Examples:
Quality, cost, time, etc
Decreases limit for bringing alcohol via international flight - liquor companies in Canada would go down
Increased in tariffs for importing steel

Question 29

What is negative risk?

Answer 29

Potential problems that might occur in the project and that might impede project success
Sometimes called threats
Examples:
Quality, cost, time, etc
Decreases limit for bringing alcohol via international flight - liquor companies in Canada would go down
Increased tariffs for importing steel

Question 30

What is positive risk?

Answer 30

Risk that results in good things happening
aka opportunities
If Justin Trudeau’s government is selected it could mean marijuana is legalized, which could lead to more investment opportunities
If the legislation to stop day light saving, is passed – we can see increased daylight during work hours

Question 31

What is risk-utility?

Answer 31

the amount of pleasure or satisfaction received from a potential payoff in a project

also called risk tolerance

“is it worth it”

Question 32

What are the types of risk-utility?

Answer 32

risk-averse, risk-neutral, risk-seeking

Question 33

Explain the chain of the response model

Answer 33

Step 1: Develop the Strategies
Step 2: if they fail = a backup plan
Step 3: fallback plan

Question 34

What are risk strategies?

Answer 34

risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk mitigation, risk transfer,

Question 35

What is the difference between positive and negative risk

Answer 35

Positive risk: an opprotunity, that must not be avoided - make the most out of it, leads to positive outcomes and increased success

Negative risk: a threat, avoid it and eliminate it (if possible and necessary), leads to negative outcomes and could lead to project failure

Question 36

What is risk avoidance?

Answer 36

Eliminating the cause and thus eliminating the threat

Often not possible, still the easiest way of removing risk from the project

Changing the project plan to remove a risk will involve changes

ex: subway getting rid of spokesperson before there was a verdict

Question 37

What is risk acceptance:

Answer 37

No action is taken except you acknowledge its presence and you accept it

Involves planning the risk into the project

If a better response strategy cannot be identified = accepting risk might be sufficient to proceed the project

ex: power outage during thunderstorm but do not buy expensive backup generator that may or may not be used

Question 38

What is risk acceptance:

Answer 38

No action is taken except you acknowledge its presence and you accept it

Involves planning the risk into the project

If a better response strategy cannot be identified = accepting risk might be sufficient to proceed with the project

ex: power outage during a thunderstorm but do not buy an expensive backup generator that may or may not be used

Question 39

What is risk mitigation?

Answer 39

Risk is big therefore try to minimize the probability of the risk occurring or its impact

used a lot

ex; driving in the snow = put on snow tires

Question 40

What is risk transfer?

Answer 40

Can transfer risk onto another party but requires trade-off/cost

Shifting the consequences of a risk to the third party is not always easy but is overlooked

ex: waiting to travel but the risk of COIVD. - buy health insurance (the risk of catching covid isn’t transferred just the risk of money loss)

ex: hiring a chef to cook instead of you to avoid risk of giving someone food poisining

Question 41

What is a contingency plan?

Answer 41

these are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs
ex. possible hijacking case leads to protocol A, B, C, etc.
for every risk response strategy = need contingency plan
not implemented right away; just in case
ex. planning an outdoor wedding; if it rains, have door location

Question 42

What is a fallback plan?

Answer 42

developed for the risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives

put into effect if contingency plans are not effective

make executive decision to risk right then and there

Question 43

What is residual risk?

Answer 43

Risk that remains after performing the risk response strategy

Left over risk

Question 44

Explain risk register

Answer 44

main output of risk identification process = list or identified risks and other info needed to begin creating a risk register

risk register is…
 document containing results of various risk management processes displayed in a table or spreadsheet
 tool for documenting potential risk events and related info

Question 45

What are risk events?

Answer 45

Specific, uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project

Question 46

What is risk-averse?

Answer 46

Big payoff but no risk
Utility rises at a decreasing rate for people who are risk adverse

Question 47

What is risk-neutral?

Answer 47

balance risk and payoff

Question 48

What is risk-seeking?

Answer 48

Higher tolerance for risk and satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake

The payoff is less but the risk is high

Question 49

Explain the probability/impact matrix

Answer 49

Lists the relative probability of a risk occurring on one side of an axis and the relative impact of a risk occurring on the other

Lists risks and then label each one (high/med/low) in terms of its probability of occurrence and its impact if it did occur

Question 50

What is the risk score equation?

Answer 50

risk score = probability x impact

Question 51

Probability can be both……

Answer 51

qualitative = high, med, low
quantitative = 10% (probability) and 10,000 (Impact)

*** probability can never exceed 1 (either 0.1-1 or 10-100%)

impact = out of 10
probability = out of 1