Week 13: Internal Conflict and Humanitarian Intervention

Question 1

Responsibility to protect (R2P)

Answer 1

“Tenent endorsed by UN members in 2005 that

"”Every state has a responsibility to protect its inhabitants from mass atrocities and that this responsibility ma fall to the broader int. community should peaceful means be inadeuate and national authorities manifestly fail to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimse against humanity”””

Question 2

What does Paris argue about R2P regaurding Lybia?

Answer 2

The aftermath of Lybia exposed deep tensions in strategic logic of preventive humanitarian intervention, and thus the heart of R2P.

Question 3

Paris’ 5 structural problems with R2P

Answer 3

“1) Mixed motives problem
2) the mixed motives problem
3) the counterfactual problem
4) conspicuous harm problem
5) End state problem
6?) the inconsistency problem (Did paris put this one in ironicly?)”

Question 4

Paris’ R2P Dilemma

Answer 4

“If no action on looming atrocity: R2P is criticized as phony/hollow

If preventive operation is launched, it will be judged harshly, even if it achieves goal of adverting atrocity. “

Question 5

Why are civil wars so much less likely to end in peaceful negotiation?

Answer 5

Becaus parties are asked to put their safty in the hands of others. One party must give up its ability to enforce the terms of negotiation while also giving up the ability to ensure its own survivial

Question 6

Causes of Civil War

Answer 6

Structural Cultural Economic Local

Question 7

Civil War (internal conflict)

Answer 7

Definition: Intra-state conflict with sustained combat resulting in the minimum of 1000 battle-related combatant deaths with both sides having forces capable of effective resistance

Question 8

Syllabus Q: What mechanisms or variables in ethnic situations can encourage the outbreak of preventive or pre-emptive wars?

Answer 8

“(Posen’s Ethnic Security Dilemma)
““Where central authority has recently collapsed, the group emerging from an old empire must calculate their power relative to each other at the time of collapse and make a guess about their relative power in the future.”” (Posen, 34)

• Post-imperial states enter into condition of anarchy. This produces pressure at the ethnic level.
• Survival concerns lead to mobilization of defense. This can create a security dilemma between ethnic groups. (Jervis Variables) can offense be distinguished from defense and which has the advantage. Geography and technology can illuminate this. (Posen Variables) Determine what neighbors are a threat. Power calculations relative to other ethnic groups, make guesses about relative power in the future. Ethnic islands and political geography influence this. Can lead to preventive wars given the presence of closing windows to act.
• Geography of communities matters (ethnic islands)
• Implication: fighting will be the worst in the most mixed areas untl they are unmixed/ethnically cleansed
• Example: Baghdad neighborhoods

”

Question 9

Syllabus Q: How are these explanations different from the causes of inter-state conflicts?

Answer 9

“In many ways, the causes of internal conflicts (Intra) are not dissimilar to the causes of international conflicts (Inter).

A key difference between Internal conflicts and International conflicts is the availability of mechanisims to resolve them. Inter-state conflicts have the benifit of not requiring the same level of post conflict vulnrability between parties. In civil wars or intra-state conflicts, one actor must navigate a security dilemma while also giving up its arms. This vulnrability creats a security dilemma where even if groups desire peace, they fear being exploited by the other side if they lay down their arms. This fear is heightened in ethnic situations where intergroup tensions are already high. The lack of trust and the potential for rapid shifts in power dynamics can create a situation where pre-emptive strikes are seen as necessary for survival, even if they increase the likelihood of war.

Through the involvement of third parties, international Conflicts have the advantage of allowing systems that encourage cooperation and limit cheating, dampening this security dilemma:
- Early warning monitoring
- Verification
- Allainces
- Bufferzones
- Trade
- Economic coercion
- Reciprocal punishments
- Access to resources

”

Question 10

Syllabus Q: What are the major explanations for the persistence of internal conflicts?

Answer 10

“Major explanations:
- Structural explanation (Walter)(Posen’s Ethnic Security Dilemma)
- Economic explanations
- Cultural explanations
- Local explanaitons

Walter’s puzzle: Why do wars between states (international armed conflicts) usually end in negotiated settlement, when civil wars (non-international armed conflicts) do not.

Walter evaluates a series of explanitions for the ““Theory of civil war termination.””
- Walter’s principal theory is the: Credible commitment problem: ““Domestic adversaries rarely settle off the battlefield because any attempt to end a civil war will also eliminate any self enforcing strategies to maintain the peace.””

This theory identifies an ““unfortunante dilemma.”” During civil wars, adversaries often attempt peace talks that then break down. This is because any attempt to unify the country also eliminates any ability to enforce and ensure the peace. Civil war settlement means one side must give up its ability to enforce treaty conditions while also becoming unable to guarentee its own security.

Alternatives include theories that examine:
- High costs
- Indivisible stakes
- Bargaining problems
- Group identities
“