voting behaviour Flashcards
voting behaviour can be separated into _ factors
3
the 3 factors that VB can be separated into are
social factors
political context
media
give examples of social factors
class
region
age
ethnicity
education
gender
give examples of political context
governing competence
leadership
campaigns
issues
give examples of media
opinion polls
TV
social media
what is partisan dealignment
described the way in which voters since the 1970’s have abandoned traditional class based party loyalties and instead vote based on their impressions of the governments competence + the salience of specific issues
in ____ class was important in determining the result of the election as labour won ___% of __ voters and the conservatives won __% of __ voters
1964
64% of DE voters
78% of AB voters
an example of partisan dealignment in the 1970 election is
many WC labour supporters chose to vote conservative in 1970 election as Enoch Powells ‘rivers of blood’ speech (1968) caused significant numbers of white WC to believe conserv would have better immigration control
what was Enoch Powells speech called and when was it
1968
‘rivers of blood’
what is an example of when a party leader was able to broaden their party’s appeal (leadership)
Thatcher 1979 broaden party support beyond core supporters with ‘right to buy’ campaign
what was Thatchers ‘right to buy’ campaign
let you buy your council property
social class has declined in importance because …..
people now vote in regards to issues rather than class + people also consider the competence of the government
give a prime example of issue based voting
2017 , AB voters voted labour because conservs seen as pro Brexit
expand on the social factor region
- there is a north - south divide in UK voting behaviour
- urban/ rural divide lab does better in large cities conserv does better in rural areas
- people in urban environment see effect of poverty so likely to support high taxes
recent elections show the declining importance of regional voting as ….
voters tend to cast their vote based on issues rather than regional loyalties
give examples of people voting based on issues rather than region
2019 Corbyn surrounded by allegations/detached from core supporters conservs took 5 key constituencies in the North East including Tony Blairs former sedgefield seat,
why is conservative support weak in London
city largely voted remain in 2016
cost of home ownership has gone up
where are Liberal Democrats most popular
in the south where there is a long tradition of non conformity
true or false age is a social factor
true
policies which appeal to older voters include
lower taxation
strong national defence
law and order
younger voters are more concerned with …
issues e.g. social justice & the environment
age is significant in determining voting behaviour e.g. ___ is the pivotal age we switch from supporting ____ to ______
47
labour , conservative
Conservative party benefits more from older people than lab does from younger people why is this
young people are less likely to vote than older people who cast their ballots regularly
sometimes the main parties are able to reach beyond their core age support give an example of this
1997 labour achieve a 5% lead over the conservatives among voters aged 65+
true or false ethnicity is a social factor
true
historically commonwealth immigrants were more likely to vote ____ because they were in the social class ___ , ___ & ___
labour
C2, D & E
____ has had a clear advantage over the ______ in the support of ethnic minorities
labour , conservatives
what are the 4 valence factors
campaigns
manifesto
leadership
governing competence
valence factors inform ….
peoples judgment about the competence of the government & opposition
give examples of times elections were won due to governing competence
1959 harold macmillan , conserv won 100 seat majority
1964 harold wilson , conservs shrouded in failures + scandals e.g. Profumo scandal 1963
1966 under wilson labour increased majority seats to over 100
1974 Edward heath plagued by miner strikes called a snap election & lost to lab
1979 strikes + misquoted Callaghan ‘crisis? what crisis?” lost power to thatcher coined “winter of discontent”
explain the importance of Governing competence
if swing voters are reassured the govt is competent then they are less likely to vote for opposition parties but if the govt seems unable to cope with challenges then swing voters will be encouraged to vote in new govt
give examples of years elections were won based on good leadership
1983, 2001, 2010, 2015
why did Thatcher win in 1983
reputation for strong & focused leadership won over voters who might have voted lab , labs leader Michael foot looked out of touch
why did Blair win in 2001
Blairs personality and charisma won voters away from the conservatives , weak + divided under Hague
why did conservatives do better than labour in the 2010 election
Cameron succeeded in focusing election on increase of national debt under Brown , wasn’t able to achieve parliamentary majority Nick Clegg v popular at time
UKIP won ___% of votes in 2015 due to their relentless focus on immigration which made it an issue among the ___
13%
WC
explain the importance of leadership as a valence factor
a popular party leader can be v important in winning support even if they have negative approval ratings can still achieve high if they define their advantage to the public
give examples of good campaigning that affected voting behaviour
1992 John major used ‘soapbox politics’ effective so won labour votes
2017 Corbyn led campaign similar to major appealed directly to the people contrasting Mays approach
give examples of bad campaigning that affected voting behaviour
1983 campaign socialist rhetoric of labour applied only to core supporters
campaigns are not as important as _____ _____ or ______ in determining voting behaviour
governing competence , leadership
give an example of when governing competence & leadership have proved to be more important than campaigns
1987 labour campaign successful but did not win votes
2017 campaign successful but did not win
____ voting is becoming increasingly important to voters
issue
give an example of issue voting
1983 conserv warnings that lab would end ‘ right to buy’ scheme contributed to Thatchers landslide re-election
what are the 4 elements of the UK media
opinion polls
the press
TV + radio
social media
what are opinion polls
an assessment of public opinion by questioning a representative sample
what are examples of opinion polls
yougov, ipsos mori
give examples of times achieving a lead in the polls has not been helpful for a party
1992 polls told of labour support growing meaning more cons turned out
2015 polls predicted close race between cons & lab so con voters turned out
the press tend to over ______ their role in general elections
exaggerate
give examples of the press over exaggerating their role
1992 ‘its the sun wot won it’
1997 ‘the sun backs Blair’
why is press not that important
often simply reinforce voting intentions rather than changing them + rapid decline of newspapers due to internet availability
in 199_ there was __ million newspaper readers this saw a rapid decline and in 201_ there was ___ million newspaper readers
7
3.8 million newspaper
1.6 million newspaper
the BBC and ITN are ____
impartial
name three leaders who used TV to their advantage or disadvantage
harold macmillan (1957 - 1963)
Margaret Thatcher (1979 - 1990)
Tony Blair (1997 - 2007)
how did harold macmillan use media to his advantage
appeared on BBC regularly before 1959 election
how did TV become a disadvantage for Harold macmillan
he became a point of mockery for popular satirical programmes as an Edwardian figure (e.g. ‘that was the week that was’)
how did Margaret Thatcher use TV to her advantage
softened her voice
wore bolder outfits
favoured appearing on sympathetic programmes
how did Blair use TV to his advantage
during his years ‘spin’ became dominant
his press secretary Alistair Campbell understood importance of spinning a story
good composure e.g. ‘people’s princess’ tribute
how did Blair undermine his relationship with the media
cash for honours scandal 2006 businessmen pay Blair x amount to make themselves a lord + other failures undermined positive media relationship
