US Elections Flashcards
4 types of election in the US
- Presidential elections
- Congressional elections
- Primaries
- Direct democracy
What happens if a president resigns before finishing their term?
The vice president completes the remaining term for them
How often to congressional elections take place?
Every 2 years: the whole of the House is up for re-election and 1/3 of the Senate
What is gerrymandering?
The deliberate manipulation of districts for party advantage at elections
What states have been accused of gerrymandering significantly?
North Carolina, Maryland
How can states control elections?
- Gerrymandering
- Voter ID laws
- Electoral system used
What is a write-in candidate?
Some states leave a blank space on ballot papers so voters can write the name of another candidate who does not appear on the paper
What is the voter registration system in North Dakota?
- Do not have a formal voter registration system
- Voters must show ID when voting
Why was the 2020 candidate for the Green Party, Howie Hawkins, limited in his election chances?
He was a write-in candidate in 17 states and didn’t even appear on the ballot in 4
Example of a non-majoritarian electoral system used in the US
Georgia’s election law requires that if no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the Senate election, the top two candidates have a run-off
Which state uses a ranked-choice voting system?
Maine
How often are the number of Electoral College votes a state gets recalculated?
Every 10 years following the census
How many Electoral College votes did Texas go up by in 2010
4
Strengths of the US electoral system
- Huge number of elections, many participation opportunities
- Majoritarian system ensures clear results and single-party control
- Primaries and caucuses allow voters to choose their candidates
- The Electoral College amplifies states’ rights
Weaknesses of the US electoral system
- US electors suffer ‘voter fatigue’ (due to many elections, but little change)
- Electoral system enforces two-party system
- Deadlock is common
- Plenty of scope for voter manipulation (gerrymandering)
Characteristics of election campaigns
- Regular, consistent campaigning
- Emphasis on candidates over party
- Huge focus on ‘swing states’
- Big expense
When are the invisible primaries said to start?
Straight after the midterms
What are some examples of swing states?
- Florida
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
How much did Trump and Clinton spend campaigning in Florida in 2016?
$94m - Clinton
$35m - Trump
(Trump ended up winning)
What state had the most number of visits on the 2020 campaign trail?
Pennsylvania with 45 in 2 months
Why do Iowa and New Hampshire get lots of attention on the campaign trail?
They are the first two states to hold primaries/caucuses
What was the total price tag for the 2020 election?
$14bn
How much money did Sanders receive in donations in 2020?
$46m in Feb 2020 alone - from 2.2m donors
Why are midterms important?
They are indicators of public confidence in the president’s performance
When did Obama lose control of the House and Senate?
House - 2008
Senate - 2014
When did Trump lose control of the House?
2018
How did the Democrats fare in the 2018 midterms in the House?
They gained 40 districts from the Republicans
How did the Democrats fare in the 2018 midterms in the Senate?
They lost two seats
Why was it important that the Democrats won the House in 2018?
It enabled them to launch impeachment proceedings soon afterward
Example of how incumbency affects Congressional elections
In 2016, West Virginia was the most pro-Trump state. However, voters re-elected Democrat Joe Manchin in 2018 for the Senate.
Midterm turnout in 2018 compared to 2014
Up from 37% to 49% - called the ‘Trump effect’ as many wanted to send a message to the White House
Which three states still used caucuses in 2020?
Iowa, Nevada and Wyoming (mostly rural, sparsely populated states)
What is the purpose of primaries and caususes?
To select delegates who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention
What is an open primary?
All registered voters are allowed to vote in any party’s primary, but they are only allowed to vote in one party’s primary
Example of a state that has open primaries
Georgia
What is a closed primary?
Only voters pre-registered to a particular party are allowed to participate in that party’s primary
Example of states that use closed primaries
Oregon, New York
What is a semi-closed primary?
Voters pre-registered with a party can vote in that party’s primary, but independent voters can choose which primary they want to vote in
What is ‘frontloading’?
When states move their primary/caucuses closer to the start in order to gain more influence over the outcome
Example of a state frontloading
California moved their primary date from June to March in 2020
What is Super Tuesday?
A day where many states hold their primaries - in 2020, 14 states held theirs
When was Super Tuesday in 2020?
3 March
How many candidates originally stood in the 2020 Democratic primary?
29
How did Biden start off his presidential campaign (in terms of results)?
Poorly - he came 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire
Advantages of the primary/caucus system
- More opportunities for political participation
- Allows outsiders to run for office (Trump)
- More democratic
Disadvantages of the party/caucus system
- Focus on individual over policies
- Shows party divisions
- Professional politicians close to Washington make a better choice?
- Early states have too much influence
Suggested alternatives to the party/caucus system
- Single, national primary
- Divide US into four regions. Each region takes it in terms to go first with each election cycle.
- The Delaware Plan: small states go first, followed by larger states
What are national nominating conventions?
The formal coronation of the primary winner for each party
Purpose of the national nominating conventions
- Unite party as former rivals endorse the winner
- Chosen candidate gains publicity as they outline their main goals for the country, usually resulting in a poll boost
- Formal beginning of the presidential campaign
Why was the Electoral College chosen by the Founding Fathers?
- In a time before mass media, general people likely wouldn’t have known the presidential candidates, therefore they elected people to decide on their behalf
- No other country at the time had a direct popular vote
What is the congressional district method for electing the Electoral College?
- Used by Maine and Nebraska
- The winner of each district wins one electoral vote
- The two remaining electors vote for the winner in the state
How did the congressional district method benefit Biden in 2020?
Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district in a usually red state
Who are the electors in the Electoral College?
Real people, chosen from among the local party faithful
What are ‘faithless electors’?
Electors who vote for someone other than their state’s winner in the Electoral College
Example of faithless electors in 2016
Three Democrats in Washington state voted for Colin Powell instead of Clinton
What years did the winner of the popular vote lose in the Electoral College system?
2000 and 2016
How many more votes would Trump have needed to win the Electoral College in 2020?
112,000
He would’ve lost the popular vote by over 5.5m
What happens in a case where no candidate wins an overall majority in the Electoral College?
The House would choose the President, and the Senate would choose the VP
When was the last time a third-party candidate won votes in the Electoral College
George Wallace won 5 states in 1968
Arguments for abolishing the Electoral College
- Winner of popular vote can lose
- Votes worth different amounts in different states
- Swing states have too much power
- Third parties have a very limited chance of getting any ECVs
Arguments for retaining the Electoral College
- Reflects the federal nature of the USA
- Encourages candidates to not just focus on big urban areas
- Reform instead of removal
- Produces a clear winner
How does the worth of a vote differ between California and Wyoming?
California - one ECV for every 712,000 people
Wyoming - one ECV for every 195,000 people
What percentage of Americans want to abolish the Electoral College?
61%
Why has the Electoral College not been abolished?
- Difficult to make a constitutional amendment
- No widely supported alternative
Why would it be difficult to pass a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College?
Smaller states’ votes would become less powerful, so they would likely veto any amendment
What factors influence the outcome of American elections?
- Incumbency
- Issues
- Media
- Candidates
- Voter profile
- Money
What percentage of incumbent congressional candidates were re-elected in the 2018 midterms?
90.5%
Why do incumbent candidates tend to win?
- Higher level of name recognition
- Can boast of past achievements
- Established campaign team and donor base
What issues helped George W. Bush win re-election in 2004?
His reponse to 9/11 led to his approval rating peaking at 90%
What is an ‘October surprise’?
A news event which occurs just before the polls open in early November which can influence an election outcome
Example of October surprises from the 2016 election
- A tape from Trump in 2005 (the ‘Hollywood Access’ tape) was leaked to the press in which Trump made vulgar comments about women
- It was leaked that Hilary Clinton had used a private email server while serving as secretary of state
How many viewers watched the 2016 presidential debate?
84m
How many followers did Donald Trump have in 2020 on Twitter?
42m - the GOP Party twitter only had 2.4m
How does race affect US election outcomes?
Racial minorities are more likely to vote Democrat
Examples:
- 87% African-Americans voted for Biden
- 65% Hispanics voted for Biden
- 61% Asian-Americans voted for Biden
- 58% whites voted for Trump
How does gender affect US election outcomes?
Women are slightly more likely to vote Democrat
Examples:
- 57% of women voted for Biden
- 53% of men voted for Trump
How does religion affect US election outcomes?
Evangelical Christians strongly support Republicans
Examples:
- 76% white Evangelicals voted for Trump
- 65% non-religious people voted for Biden
How does age affect US election outcomes?
Younger voters are more likely to vote Democrat
Examples:
- 60% under 30s voted for Biden
- 52% over 65s voted for Trump
How does geography affect US election outcomes?
Urban voters tend to vote Democrat
Examples:
- 60% of people in urban areas (population over 50,000) backed Biden
- 57% in rural areas backed Trump
What are realigning elections?
When a particular group of voters change to realign with a new political party or candidate
Why can the 1932 election be described as a realigning election?
- For the previous 30 years the Republicans had been the dominant party
- In 1928, the Republicans had won by a margin of over 6m
- The Great Depression happened under Republican watch in 1929
- In 1932, FDR’s Democrats won by 7 million votes
Why can the 2016 election be described as a realigning election?
- First time since Eisenhower that a political outsider won office
- Victory for populism over traditional politics
- Many blue collar workers in states like Ohio voted Republican for the first time (Trump won 62%, compared to 57% for Romney)
Why do white evangelical Christians tend to vote Republican?
- Pro-life
- Pro-Israel
- Promotion of traditional social values, particularly against LGBTQ+ and transgender rights
Why do gun owners tend to vote Republican?
Defence of the 2nd amendment and opposition to gun control
Why do African-Americans tend to vote Democrat?
- Better and more consistent support for civil rights
- Opposition to ‘voter suppression’ tactics
- Tackling poverty
Why do public sector workers tend to vote Democrat?
- Increasing minimum wage
- Greater investment in public services such as education
- Protection of worker’s rights
Why did the Culinary Workers Union oppose Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan?
They believed that it would jeopardise hard-won healthcare packages already negotiated for their members
(This shows union power and how Democrats cannot be too radical)
