UNIT #12: RISK ASSESMENT

Question 1

Actuarial prediction

Answer 1

Decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome

Question 2

Base Rate

Answer 2

Represents the percentage of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act

Question 3

Clinical risk factors

Answer 3

Types and symptoms of mental disorders (e.g. substance abuse)

Question 4

Contextual risk factors

Answer 4

Risk factors that refer to aspects of the current environment (e.g. access to victims or weapons)

Sometimes also called situational risk factors

Question 5

Coping-relapse model of criminal recidivism

Answer 5

Model that attempts to explain why an individual will commit another offence after release from prison

Question 6

Desistance

Answer 6

The process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour

Question 7

Dispositional risk factors

Answer 7

Risk factors that reflect the individuals traits, tendencies, or styles (e.g. negative attitudes)

Question 8

Dynamic risk factor

Answer 8

Risk factors that fluctuate over time and are amendable to change

Question 9

False negative

Answer 9

An incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour (ex. Violent act) but does

Question 10

False positive

Answer 10

An incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour (ex. A violent act) but does not

Question 11

Historical risk factors

Answer 11

Risk factors that refer to events that have been experienced in the past (ex. Age at first arrest) (AKA static risk factors)

Question 12

Illusory correlation

Answer 12

Belief that a correlation exists between two events that in reality are either not correlated or correlated to a much lesser degree

Question 13

Positive factors

Answer 13

Factors that mitigate or reduce the likelihood of a negative outcome (e g. Delinquency, aggression)

Question 14

Situational risk factors

Answer 14

Risk factors that refer to aspects of the current environment (ex. Access to weapons or victims)

Question 15

Static risk factors

Answer 15

Risk factor that does not fluctuate over time and has not changed by treatment (ex. Age at first arrest)

Question 16

Structured professional judgment

x3

Answer 16

(1) term professional is used to acknowledge that it is not only clinicians who make evaluations of risk but a diverse group, including law enforcement officers, probation officers, and social workers)
(2) Arose from the limitations associated with
unstructured clinical judgment and concern that the actuarial method did not allow for individualized risk appraisal or for consideration of the impact of situational factors to modify risk level
(3) Decisions are guided by a predetermined list of risk factors that have been selected from the research and professional literature. Judgement of risk level is based on the evaluator’s professional judgement

Question 17

True negative

Answer 17

A correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour (ex. A violent act) does not

Question 18

True positive

Answer 18

The correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour (e.g. violent act) does so

Question 19

Unstructured clinical judgement

x3

Answer 19

(1) Decisions characterized by a substantial amount of professional discretion and lack of guidelines
(2) no predefined rules about what risk factors should be considered, what sources of information should be used, or how the risk factors should be
combined to make a decision about risk.
(3) risk factors considered vary across clinicians
and vary across cases

Question 20

two components risk
assessment comprises

x3

Answer 20

(1) the critical function of risk assessments is violence prevention, not violence prediction.
(2) PREDICTION
(3) Management

Question 21

two components risk
assessment comprises:

Prediction

x2

Answer 21

(1) describes the probability that an individual will commit future criminal or violent acts.
(2) focus of this component is on identifying the risk factors that are related to this likelihood of
future violence.

Question 22

two components risk
assessment comprises

Management

Answer 22

(1) describes the 
development of
interventions to manage 
or reduce the likelihood 
of future violence

Question 23

areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:

Criminal

Answer 23

(1) refer to situations in which
an individual has been
charged with a crime.

Question 24

areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:

Civil

Answer 24

(1) 
refer to the private 
rights of individuals 
and the legal proceedings
connected with such rights

Question 25

areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:

Child protection

Answer 25

(1) involves the laws that
are in place to protect
children from abuse

Question 26

areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:

Immigration laws

Answer 26

prohibit the admission of individuals into Canada if there are reasonable grounds for believing they will engage in acts of violence or if they pose a risk to the social, cultural, or economic functioning of Canadian society

Question 27

areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:

School and labour
regulations

Answer 27

include provisions to prevent any kind of act that would endanger others

Question 28

areas in which a risk evaluation can occur:

Duty to warn

Answer 28

(1) Mental health professionals 
are expected to consider the 
likelihood that their patients will 
act in a violent manner and to 
intervene to prevent such behaviour

Question 29

TYPES OF PREDICTION OUTCOMES &; RELATION
TO RECIDIVISM:

TYPES

x4

Answer 29

(1) FALSE POSITIVE
(2) FALSE NEGATIVE
(3) TRUE NEGATIVE
(4) TRUE POSITIVE

Question 30

DISCUSS ISSUES WITH TYPES OF PREDICTION OUTCOMES & RELATION TO RECIDIVISM

Answer 30

(1) problem with attempting to predict violence is
determining base rates
(2) base rate represents the percentage of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act
(3) difficult to make accurate predictions when the base
rates are too high or too low
(4) problem that emerges when attempting to predict events that have a low base rate is that many
false positives will occur
(5) base rate can vary dramatically depending on the group being studied, what is being predicted, and the length of the follow-up period over which the individual is monitored.
(6) For example, the base rate of sexual violence tends to be relatively low, even over extended follow-up periods, whereas the base rate for violating the
conditions of a conditional release is very high
(7) The base rate problem is not such a concern if predictions of violence are limited to groups with a high base rate of violence, such as incarcerated offenders. The general rule is that it is easier to predict frequent events than infrequent events

Question 31

Baxstrom and Dixon studies: implications for mentally disordered forensic patients

x3

Answer 31

(1) U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the plaintiff Johnnie Baxstrom had been detained beyond his sentence expiry and ordered him released into the community
(2) As a result of this case, more than 300 mentally ill offenders from the Dannemora State Hospital for the Criminally Insane and another state hospital were released into the community or transferred to less secure institutions
(3) call into question the ability of mental health professionals to make accurate predictions of violence.

Question 32

Baxstrom and Dixon studies: implications for mentally disordered forensic patients

Two key findings emerged from the research

x4

Answer 32

(1) the base rate for violence was relatively low.
(2) For example, in the Baxstrom study, 7 out of 98 (roughly 7%) violently reoffended, as did 60 out of 400 (15%) in the Dixon study.
(3) Second, the false positive rate was very high.
(4) In the Baxstrom and Dixon studies, the false positive rates were 86% and 85%, respectively

Question 33

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES

x3

Answer 33

(1) limited number of risk factors being studied. Violent behaviour is due to a complex interaction between individual dispositions and situational factors
(2) second issue concerns how the criterion variable (the variable you are trying to measure) is measured
(3) Finally, how the criterion variable is defined is a concern.

Question 34

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES:

(3) how the criterion variable is defined is a concern.

x3

Answer 34

(1) some studies researchers will classify their participants as having either engaged in violence or not.
(2) recommended that researchers expand this coding to include the severity of violence (threatened violence versus severe violence), types of violence (spousal violence versus sexual violence), targets of violence (family versus stranger), location (institutions versus community), and motivation (reactive [unplanned
violence in response to a provocation] versus instrumental [violence used as an instrument in the pursuit of some goal])
(3) likely that some risk factors will be associated with certain forms of violence

Question 35

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES:

(2) second issue concerns how the 
criterion variable (the variable you are 
trying to measure) is measured

x4

Answer 35

(1) Researchers have often used official criminal records as their criterion measure. However, many crimes may never be reported to police.
(2) many false positives may be undiscovered true positives
(3) Even violent crimes may go undiscovered and many violent sexual crimes are recorded as
simply violent in nature
(4) use of official records underestimates violence

Question 36

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN RISK EVALUATION STUDIES:

(1) limited number of risk factors being studied. Violent behaviour is due to a complex interaction between individual dispositions and situational factors.

x3

Answer 36

(1) people engage in violence for many different reasons.
(2) Thus, many risk factors are likely involved, including the person’s background, social situation, and biological and psychological features. Many studies have focused on only a
limited number of risk factors.
(3) recommended researchers pay more attention to understanding how an individual’s subjective state leads an individual to commit violence

Question 37

MAIN METHODS OF
RISK EVALUATION

x3

Answer 37

(1) Structured professional judgment
(2) mechanical prediction
(3) Unstructured clinical judgment

Question 38

MAIN METHODS OF
RISK EVALUATION:

Mechanical prediction

x6

Answer 38

(1) involves predefined rules about
what risk factors to consider,
how information should be collected, and how information should be combined to make a risk decision
(2) risk factors do not vary as a function of the clinician and the same risk factors are considered for each case.
(3) common type of mechanical prediction is called actuarial prediction
(4) Decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical
or statistical association with a specific outcome
(5) concluded that actuarial prediction was equal to or better than unstructured clinical judgment
in all cases.
(6) criticism of many actuarial assessments has been their sole reliance on static risk factors,
which do not permit measuring changes in risk over time or provide information relevant for intervention

Question 39

Types of Risk Factors

x8

Answer 39

(1) a measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behaviour of interest, such as violence
(2) situational
(3) contextual
(4) historical
(5) clinical
(6) dispositional
(7) static
(8) dynamic

Question 40

key historical factors that
predict future violence:

x3

Answer 40

(1) most accurate predictor of
future behaviour is past behaviour.
(2) Age of Onset
(3) child history of maltreatment

Question 41

Age of Onset

x2

Answer 41

(1) individuals who start their
antisocial behaviour at an earlier age are more chronic and serious offenders
(2) For example, found that 50% of the boys who committed a violent offence prior to age 16 were convicted of a violent offence in early adulthood

Question 42

Childhood History
of Maltreatment

x2

Answer 42

(1) victims of physical abuse or
who were victims of neglect were
much more likely to commit criminal acts as compared with those who were not abused
(2) Being abused in childhood predicts initiation into delinquency, but continued abuse predicts chronic offending

Question 43

age and gender related to the risk of
committing violence

x5

Answer 43

(1) Males are at higher risk than are females for general offending
(2) males engage in more serious violent acts, such as sexual assaults, homicides, and assaults causing bodily harm
(3) Some studies using self-report measures have found that females engage in similar or even higher rates of less serious violence
(4) Dozens of studies have firmly established age of first offence as a risk factor for both general and
violent recidivism in both offenders with mental disorders and offenders without mental disorders
(5) Offenders who are arrested prior to age 14 tend to have more serious and more extensive criminal careers than those who are first arrested
after age 14

Question 44

situational contexts that are correlated with violence

x2

Answer 44

(1) Access to Weapons or Victims

(2) Lack Of social support

Question 45

situational contexts that are correlated with violence:

Lack of Social Support

x2

Answer 45

(1) absence of strong support
systems to help individuals in their day-to-day lives

(2) found that the current relationship an offender with a mental disorder has with his or her parents and siblings is related to violence

Question 46

situational contexts that are correlated with violence:

Access to weapons or Victims

x3

Answer 46

(1) If the offender is released into
an environment that permits easy access to weapons or victims,
the potential for another violent act increases
(2) If the offender has engaged in violence with other associates or under the influence of substances, releasing the offender to live in the same circumstances that led to past violence may induce future violence
(3) if offenders who have assaulted their spouses and refused treatment for domestic violence return to live with their spouses, they have a much
higher likelihood of violence than those who do not have easy access to a past victim.

Question 47

actuarial tools of risk evaluation

x2

Answer 47

(1) Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

(2) Static-99

Question 48

Static-99

x6

Answer 48

(1) is a 10-item actuarial scale designed to predict sexual recidivism.
(2) All items on this scale are static in nature.
(3) Scores can range from 0 to 12
(4) with scores being associated with four risk categories: low, moderate-low, moderate-high, and high.
(5) Items on the Static-99
include the following:
■Young age at time of release
■Ever lived with intimate partner
■Any prior nonsexual
violent convictions
■Any index nonsexual
violent convictions
■Number of prior sex offences
■Number of prior sentences
■Any male victims
■Any unrelated victims
■Any stranger victims
■Any noncontact sex offences
(6) meta-analysis reported moderate to strong
predictive validity across more than 60 studies and 24,000 offenders.

Question 49

Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

x5

Answer 49

(1) empirically derived 12-item measure designed to assess the long-term risk for violent recidivism in offenders with mental disorders
(2) Researchers coded about 50 risk factors from institutional files in a sample of 618 male adult patients with mental disorders who had been
transferred to less secure institutions or released
into the community
(3) Statistical analyses were used to select the 12 best predictors of violence from childhood history,
adult adjustment, offence history, and assessment results
(4) The 12 predictors varied in terms of how strongly they were related to violent recidivism
and included the following (ordered from most to least predictive)
(5) ■Hare Psychopathy Checklist–Revised score
■Elementary school maladjustment
■Diagnosis of any personality disorder
■Age at index offence (young age, higher risk)
■Separation from biological parents prior to age 16
■Failure on prior conditional release
■Prior nonviolent offences
■Single marital status at time of offence
■Diagnosis of schizophrenia (lower risk)
■Victim injury (less injury, higher risk)
■History of alcohol problems
■Victim gender (female victim, lower risk)
(6) Using scores on each of these risk factors, nine risk categories—or “bins”—were created. Each risk bin has a probability of violent recidivism within ten years ranging from 9% (bin 1), to 35% (bin 5), to 100% (bin 9)

Question 50

Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct

x5

Answer 50

(1) According to the model, the first event is some type
of environmental trigger.
(2) What will be considered a trigger varies across individuals and can range from stressful life events, such as losing a job, having relationship problems, and financial difficulties, to more mundane daily events, such as being stuck in a traffic jam.
(3) Once the event has occurred, the individual will invoke both an emotional and cognitive appraisal of the event.
(4) If this appraisal process results in the experience of negative emotions (e.g., anger, hostility, fear) or elevated levels of stress, the individual will attempt to deal with these unpleasant feelings.
(5) If the individual does not possess adequate coping mechanisms, a worsening cycle of negative emotions
and maladaptive cognitions occurs, eventually resulting in criminal behaviour

Question 51

Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct:

how an individual perceives and responds to an environmental trigger is dependent on two factors:

Answer 51

(1) individual and response mechanisms.

Question 52

Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct:

individual mechanisms

x2

Answer 52

(1) Individual influences include factors such as criminal history and enduring personality traits (e.g., psychopathy, emotional reactivity)
(2) Individual influences include factors such as criminal history and enduring personality traits (e.g., psychopathy, emotional reactivity)

Question 53

Coping-Relapse Model
of criminal conduct:

response mechanisms

Answer 53

(1) Available response mechanisms also influence how an individual will perceive a situation, which, in turn, will mediate that person’s response
(2) considered to be more dynamic in nature and, thus,
are important targets for intervention.
(3) Examples of these factors include coping ability,
substance use, criminal attitudes and associates,
and social supports

Question 54

three rating tools that use structured professional

judgment to predict violence

Answer 54

(1) Violence Risk Scale (VRS)
(2) Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI)
(3) HCR-20

Question 55

Violence Risk Scale (VRS)

Answer 55

(1) designed to provide information on an offender’s risk to reoffend while at the same time providing
treatment targets to reduce the offender’s risk
(2) consists of 26 items: 6 static risk factors and
20 dynamic risk factors

Question 56

Violence Risk Scale (VRS):

static risk factors

x14

Answer 56

(1) static risk factors include the following:
■Age of first violent conviction
■Number of juvenile convictions
■Violence throughout life span
■Stability of family upbringing
■Prior release failures/escapes
■Current age 
■Criminal history
■Education/employment problems
■Family/marital relationship problems
■Lack of leisure/recreation activities
■Antisocial companions
■Alcohol/drug problems
■Procriminal attitudes/orientation
■Antisocial personality pattern

Question 57

Violence Risk Scale (VRS):

dynamic risk factors

x5

Answer 57

(1) are those that can be changed through treatment.
(2) Work ethic (Does the individual want to work for a living or does the individual use violence or other socially inappropriate ways [e.g., pimping, drug dealing] of supporting him- or herself?)
(2) Emotional regulation/control (Is the individual able to control his or her emotions or is there a persistent
relationship between inability to control emotions and violence?
(3) Impulsivity (Does the individual consider the consequences of his or her behaviour or is the
individual still reacting impulsively?)
(4) predicts violent and nonviolent reoffending at a moderate level, and those offenders who scored highest on the VRS reoffended the earliest when released.
(5) Insight into violence (Does the individual understand what factors are related to why he has committed violence or does the individual lack insight by denying
responsibility, blaming others, or refusing recommended intervention?)

Question 58

Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI)

Answer 58

(1) is a comprehensive risk/need-assessment and
treatment-planning system
(2) It consists of 11 sections that are scored based on
a semi-structured interview and review of the offender’s
file information
(3) Section 1 consists of 43 items that are summed to yield a total risk score. These items are designed to
measure the “Central Eight” risk factors that have been reliably associated with recidivism:

Question 59

HCR-20

x3

Answer 59

(1) designed to predict violent behaviour in correctional and forensic psychiatric samples
(2) the evaluator conducts a systematic risk assessment and refers to a list of risk factors, each having specific
coding criteria and a demonstrated relationship with violent recidivism based on the existing professional
and empirical literature.
(3) HCR-20 stands for the list of 20 items organized into three main scales that align risk factors into past (historical), present (clinical), and future (risk management).

Question 60

HCR-20:

Risk management (future community or 
institutional adjustment of the individual):

x5

Answer 60

■Feasibility of plans
■Exposure to destabilizers
■Level of personal support
■Stress
■Likelihood of treatment compliance .

Question 61

HCR-20:

Historical (primarily static in nature):

x11

Answer 61

■Past violence
■Age at first violent offence
■Relationship instability
■Employment instability
■Relationship problems
■Substance-use problems
■Major mental disorder
■Psychopathy
■Early maladjustment
■Personality disorder
■Prior supervision failure

Question 62

HCR-20:

Clinical (reflect current, dynamic risk
factors):

x5

Answer 62

■Lack of insight
■Negative attitudes
■Active mental disorder symptoms
■Impulsivity
■Treatability

Question 63

factors or attributes reduce the likelihood of violence or anti-social acts by high-risk offenders

Answer 63

(1) Protective factors: Factors that mitigate or reduce the

likelihood of a negative outcome (e.g., delinquency, aggression)

Question 64

Protective factors:

x5

Answer 64

(1) employment stability
(2) strong attachments
(3) positive social orientation (e.g., school, work)
(4) prosocial involvement
(5) strong social supports

Question 65

factors are related to the cessation of criminal conduct
in some offenders?

x5

Answer 65

(1) Social avoidance
(2) Orientation to the family
(3) Insight triggered by negative events connected to their criminal lifestyle.
(4) Age is strongly related to criminal behaviour, and the age-related decline in criminal offending is connected to the maturation process
(5) as people age, they become less interested in a criminal lifestyle and are more able to understand and fear the consequences of engaging in crime