Trends in the Study of War Flashcards
What was Quincy Wright’s significance on fhe study of war?
Developed the basic theory of war, arguing that the key factors for understanding are technology, law, social organisations, and opinions concerning basic values
What was Lewis Fry Richardson’s significance on fhe study of war?
Developed the mathematical model of arms races as a cause of war
What was J. David Singer’s significance on fhe study of war?
Founded the Correlates of War Project, recognised advancing the scientific study of wars required data collection
What do qualitative research centres do when studying war?
*Providing an evidence base for all aspects of conflict
*Identifying and explaining aspects of the origins, dynamics and resolution of conflict
Why is a definition for war necessary?
To know if certain conflicts do or do not classify as war
What are the three main types of wars for political science purposes?
- Inter-state wars
- Extra-state wars
- Intra-state wars
What are the coding problems with wars for data and research?
In practice wars are much more complicated than they appear in political science data sets
What mainly defines an inter-state war?
Fighting between the regular military forces of two or more countries
What mainly defines an extra-state war?
When a state fights outside of its borders against a non-state actor
What mainly defines an intra-state war?
Occurs between state and non-state actors within the territory of a state
What is a militarised inter-state dispute?
*Includes threat to use force, the display of force, the actual use of military force
*Actions must be explicit
*Below the level of war
What are additional categories to consider for war?
*Formal and informal wars
*Armed conflict
*Aggression
*Hybrid warfare
*Cyber attack
*Space war
What is the Pinker Thesis?
Over the course of human history, there has been a steady move away from relying on violence to settle disputes
Also less reliance on more savage and egregious forms of violence
What is the Decline of War Thesis?
Since 1945 there have been relatively few large inter-state wars (Long Peace)
What are the general historical trends in wars in the modern great power system?
Large wars have become shorter but much deadlier
What is the Long Cycle theory of war?
World power emerges from a global war with control over world trade, new rivals gradually overtake them leading to war
What is the Democratic Peace Theory?
Stable democracies are very unlikely to go to war with each other
What are the three possible explanations for the Democratic Peace Theory?
Normative
Institutional
Kantian Triangle
What is the Normative explanation for the Democratic Peace Theory?
*Democracies are likely to externalise peaceful norms associated with democratic politics
*Non-democracies are likely to externalise violent norms associated with power politics
What is the Institutional explanation for the Democratic Peace Theory?
*Checks and balances can prevent democracies going to war
*Wars are expensive and unpopular in democracies
*Democratic leaders are incentivised to resolve conflicts peacefully
What is the Kantian Triangle explanation for the Democratic Peace Theory?
*Democracy Characteristics combined with IO memberships and Economic Interdependence
What is the Capitalist Peace Theory?
Capitalism is the driving force of peace between democracies, instead of democracy itself
How does capitalism prevent war according to the Capitalist Peace Theory?
*Wealthy states are unwilling to go to war with each other
*Democratic Peace Theory driven by wealthy states becoming democratic
How does democratic governance lead to a decline in war?
*Democratic norms, accountability and transparency
*Inability to justify repression means less gains from conquest
How does economic interdependence lead to a decline in war?
*Trade disruptions make wars costlier
*Trade allows states to access resources without conquest
*Trade disputes settled peacefully
How does wealth lead to a decline in war?
*Conquered lands decrease in relative value as economies develop
*Dependence on international capital markets make wars costlier
How do demographics and social changes lead to a decline in war?
*Youth bulges mean more manpower which can encourage wars
*Old populations increase domestic funding and make wars costlier
*Female empowerment can reduce conflicts
How do international organisations lead to a decline in war?
*IOs spread peaceful norms among members
*IOs raise diplomatic costs and settle disputes
*IOs have peacekeeping missions
How do territorial integrity norms lead to a decline in war?
*Higher costs of initiating territorial disputes through sanctions
*Discourages irredentist claims
*Discourages secessionist movements
How do nuclear weapons lead to a decline in war?
*Risk of retaliation (MAD) disincentivises conflicts
*Nukes force states to be cautious
*Nukes limit the size of wars
How does technology lead to a decline in war?
*Greater access to information and international contacts disincentivises wars
*Greater transparency makes surprise attacks harder
How does US hegemony lead to a decline in war?
*US uses influence to discourage conflicts amongst allies and partners
*US reduces incentives for arms races
How did the Ukraine War affect war studies?
*Invalidated lots of theories on war decline
*Forced scholars to revisit ideas of peace
Have wars become more or less lethal?
Casualties as percentages of population have decreased, but casualties as numbers have increased
Are wars still expensive?
Wars are still enormously expensive, but most states benefit from the Phoenix Factor
What are more recent examples of the Phoenix Factor?
Wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan being very costly but having little to no effects on US economic power
