Causes of War Flashcards
Why is perpetual peace associated with a graveyard?
Only peace is the peace of the dead
How should we think about peace?
*Absence of war (temporary and limitations on war)
*Perpetual (guaranteed by a higher authority)
Why is peace important to consider for the causes of war?
How we think about peace is directly related to how we think about the causes of war
What caused the war between Athens and Sparta?
The growth of Athenian power and the fear this caused in Sparta
What type of war was the one between Athens and Sparta?
A preventive war aimed at preserving the balance-of-power
What is the difficulty of studying wars?
There are way too many types of wars to analyse
How do historians analyse wars?
*Treat every war as unique, with unique causes
*No interest in generalisations
How do political scientists analyse wars?
*Shift attention from particular wars to the general phenomenon
*Look for patterns/similarities between the causes of different wars
How should political scientists consider the nature of causation to analyse the causes of wars?
*Distinction between causing a war any time vs. causing war at a specific time
*Scope conditions
*Attempting to create a plausible story or pathway
*Comparing and contrasting alternative explanations
What are the arguments for the idea that anarchy is the cause of war?
*Wars begin because there is no authority to stop them
*Realist view: the structure of power in international relations determines the opportunities for the use of force
*Rising powers and declining powers often find themselves at war (Power Transition Theory/Thucydides Trap)
What are the arguments against the idea that anarchy is the cause of war?
*International society is government by norms, agreements, and rules that mitigate conflict between states
*International anarchy as cause does not account for the importance of other causes such as human nature
*Does not provide a good explanation for civil wars - which seem to result from issues of identity, greed, corruption, domestic grievances, etc.
What are the three levels of analysis or “images” for analysing wars?
*Individual (minds of men)
*State (internal structure - e.g. liberal democracy vs autocratic)
*International System (anarchy)
Do wars occur because there is nothing that prevents states from initiating them?
Structure of the state system does not directly cause wars, we need to consider special circumstances
What are the different explanations for the causes of interstate wars?
*Human nature
*Frustration
*Misperception
*Group explanations
*Bargaining model
How can “human nature” be a cause of interstate wars?
Human beings are genetically programmed towards violence, or it is a learned behaviour
How can “frustration” be a cause of interstate wars?
Feelings of aggression can be channelled into different pursuits
How can “misperception” be a cause of interstate wars?
Misunderstandings and miscalculations between states can lead to wars
How can “group explanations” be a cause of interstate wars?
Democratic states fight others but not themselves
How can the “bargaining model” be a cause of interstate wars?
Focuses on political causes such as inflexibility in resolving disputes
What is the main explanation for the causes of civil wars?
Greed vs. Grievance
How can “greed and grievance” be a cause of civil wars?
Economic motivations, oppression, inequality, discrimination, etc.
What does the Marxist analysis for war argue?
The major causes of war are determined by the economy
What would a Marxist analysis of peace argue?
Ruling circles and military-industrial complexes rule capitalist states
Peace happens when war becomes bad for leading interests
How can war be due to a perceived weakness or a failure to deter?
Wanting money doesn’t cause bank robberies, but if it was easier to rob banks the probability of bank robberies would increase
What is the stability-instability paradox?
When two countries have nukes, the odds of a direct war decrease but the odds of minor/indirect conflicts increase
The best example for this was the Cold War
What were the official reasons for the Iraq War?
Preventive war against WMDs and terrorism
What were the effects of 9/11 on US foreign policy?
Created circumstances to push for aggressive policies that would otherwise not be approved
Democratic opposition muted
Public rage led to war
What was the mainstream US political belief at the time of the War on Terror?
Neoconservatism
What were the special interests involved in the Iraq War?
*Oil Lobby
*Israel Lobby
*Defence Industry
How was the Iraq War a power demonstration?
*9/11 threatened US hegemony and deterrence
*US felt the need to re-establish global status
*Iraq was an easy target to defeat and creates an adequate reputation
What are the three possible explanations for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022?
(All suffer from analytical and evidentiary problems though)
*Putin’s worldview and imperial ambitions
*Regime security considerations
*Strategic response to Ukraine’s growing geopolitical alignment with the West
What are some arguments for Putin’s worldview and imperial ambitions leading to the Ukraine War?
Putin being driven by imperial fantasies and historical nostalgia, aiming to restore Russia’s superpower status
What is the problem with trying to explain the Russian invasion through Putin’s individual reasoning?
*Cannot explain the specific timing of the invasion
*Massive scope of attack doesn’t fit his previous pattern of modest interventions
*Focuses too much on one man
What are some arguments for regime security considerations leading to the Ukraine War?
Russian concerns that a democratising Ukraine would inspire Russian revolts against internal problems and the regime
What is the problem with trying to explain the Russian invasion through regime security considerations?
*Putin always maintained high popularity ratings
*Very low risk of democracy spillovers from Ukraine
What are some arguments for a response to Ukraine’s growing geopolitical alignment with the West leading to the Ukraine War?
A response to perceived aggression by the West potentially adding Ukraine into NATO and the EU (like Georgia)
What is the problem with trying to explain the Russian invasion through a response to Ukraine’s growing geopolitical alignment with the West?
*Russia guided not just by defensive but also offensive aims and objectives
*Self-defeating argument as the war strengthened NATO and legitimised its goals
