Nuclear Weapons & Deterrence

Question 1

Short history of deterrence as a concept?

Answer 1

• Cold War ‘coming of age’, ‘key concept for the understanding of the strategy and diplomacy’ of the period
• Post-Cold War ‘semi-retirement’
• Post-Crimea: back in fashion

Question 2

What is Deterrence?

Answer 2

the prevention of action by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction and/or belief that the cost of action outweighs the perceived benefits

Question 3

What is General Deterrence?

Answer 3

conveys a somewhat vague, broad, continuous threat of retaliation for any future attack

Question 4

What is Immediate Deterrence?

Answer 4

threatening retaliation when an attack looms, or as already occurred and the victim wants to deter its continuation

Question 5

What is Punishment?

Answer 5

threats to impose costs through retaliation that may be unrelated to the aggression itself

Question 6

What is Denial?

Answer 6

strategies that seek to deter an action by making it infeasible or unlikely to succeed

Question 7

What were the three deterrence types seen in the Cold War?

Answer 7

• Type 1: Direct attack (US vs USSR)
• Type 2: Extended deterrence challenge (NATO vs Warsaw Pact)
• Type 3: Peripheral conflict (Korea, Vietnam)

Question 8

What are the problems of measuring deterrence success?

Answer 8

• Problem of explaining a non-event
• How to measure whether a threat had an effect on an adversary’s behaviour?
• Are attacks that do not occur every day examples of deterrence success?
• What about countless reasons other than threats (self-deterrence)?

Question 9

What are the credibility problems with deterrence?

Answer 9

• Problem of incomplete information
• Interests at stake
• How to communicate commitment to fight?
• Reputation/’cumulative deterrence’

Question 10

What is Madman Theory?

Answer 10

Nixon attempted to make the leaders of hostile countries think he was irrational and volatile so that they would avoid provoking the U.S. in fear of an unpredictable response

Question 11

What are the different nuclear deterrence options?

Answer 11

• Maximum / ‘overkill’ - Counterforce + Countervalue
• Minimum - Countervalue only
• Triad
• No first use
• Mini-nukes

Question 12

What is a Nuclear Triad?

Answer 12

A combination of land, air and sea nuclear missiles

Used to increase nuclear deterrence by guaranteeing the ability to strike back

Question 13

What is counterforce?

Answer 13

to conduct a preemptive nuclear strike which has as its aim to disarm an adversary by destroying its nuclear weapons before they can be launched