The Grey Zone Flashcards
What is a Fifth Column?
A group of people who undermine a larger group or nation from within, usually in favour of an enemy group or another nation
What was the Anschluss preceded by?
1934 coup attempt and murder of Austrian Chancellor Dollfuss
Pressure campaign on new Austrian leader
Refusal to appoint Austrian Nazi leader leads to invasion and annexation by Nazi Germany
What was the Czech Coup preceded by?
Subversion and communist control of Czech Interior Ministry (‘conquest from within’)
Threat of Soviet army invading in support of Czech communists weakens resolve to oppose coup
What was the Czech Coup?
Czech communists seize power in February 1948 ahead of May election
Why was the Czech Coup significant?
Marked a key change in European/US views of nature of Soviet expansionism - adds pressure for creation of NATO
What are Salami Tactics?
A divide and conquer process of threats and alliances to overcome opposition, developed gradually
What is the difference between Gray Zone/Hybrid War?
Often used interchangeably
What is Hybrid War?
Type of conflict utilising tactics below the threshold of traditional warfare to undermine an adversary and advance one’s own interests, usually disguised to prevent
How can we differentiate between the Gray Zone and Hybrid War?
However, many of these same tactics can also be used in traditional war
Only meaningful distinction is that the Gray Zone is usually limited to state actors whereas Hybrid War is associated with both state and non-state actors
How can Hybrid War be lost in translation?
For Western commentators, hybrid war is used by Russia against the West, whereas for Russia it is used by the West against Russia
What is Gray Zone as a Strategy? How is it utilised?
Pursuit of political objectives through cohesive, integrated campaigns
Employing mostly non-military or non-kinetic military tools
Strive to remain under key escalatory or red line thresholds to avoid outright conventional conflict
Moving gradually to objectives rather than seeking conclusive results in a specific period
What is the main challenge of the Gray Zone?
How to respond to it?
What are the characteristics of covert action?
“more muscular than diplomacy and less expensive and obtrusive than military force”
What was the Information Research Department of the UK?
Created within UK Foreign Office in early Cold War
Was responsible for waging a secret propaganda war around the world, including manufacturing and spreading disinformation
Why did the Soviets conduct disinformation?
To hasten victory in the Cold War ideological struggle
How did the Soviets aim to hasten victory in the Cold War ideological struggle through disinformation?
undermining and confusing the United States and its Western allies
splitting the Western alliance
sowing seeds of distrust and discord within democracies
winning friends in the Third World
When, how and why was the term “hybrid warfare” created?
Coined in 2006 to characterise a type of warfare that blended conventional and irregular elements, with Hezbollah as the model
How did hybrid and gray warfare terminology evolve over time?
Hybrid War was later adopted by NATO in 2014 following the Crimea annexation
Gray Zone also became popular from mid-2010s onwards
Although it remains widely used within NATO, the terms have fallen out of use somewhat due to the ongoing conventional war in Ukraine
How did the Crimea annexation constitute Hybrid War and a Gray Zone?
Russian soldiers arrive in Crimea without any insignia or other identifying information on their uniforms
Annexation accompanied by cyber-attacks intended to sow confusion and delay response, especially of Western governments
How does NATO respond to Hybrid Warfare after 2014 Crimea?
Crimea example raises fears in Eastern Europe
NATO defines and uses term ‘hybrid warfare’ in its 2014 Wales Declaration
Gradual effort within NATO to focus on threat of ‘hybrid war
Alliance slowly develops measures to deter and respond to these type of threats
Leads to formation of ‘Enhanced Forward Presence’ battlegroups in the Baltic states and Poland as a deterrent
What is the “Response to the Response”?
If ‘gray zone war’ tactics fail, this leaves 3 options:
1. Give up aggressive actions and accept status quo
2. Continue regardless and hope an opportunity arises to exploit
3. Escalate to war
How was the 2022 invasion of Ukraine a “response to the response”?
As Ukraine and NATO bolstered defenses after 2014, thereby limiting Russia’s ability to achieve its goals, Russia continued its emphasis on gray zone tactics but eventually chose escalation
What determines success and failure in the Gray Zone?
Success often hard to prove in spite of significant circumstantial evidence
Failure due to inability to achieve objective, backlash, and/or escalation to war
What is the goal with succeeding in Gray Zone warfare?
No guarantee tactics will work but hope is that an opportunity will arise that can be exploited
How have Gray Zone tactics failed through inabilities, backlash or escalation?
-2007 cyberattacks on Estonia lead to major investment in cyberdefense both in Estonia and NATO more generally
-‘Little Green Men’ in 2014 leads NATO to focus on Russia again and build up E. European military infrastructure
-Crimea expands to eastern Ukraine - Russian-backed separatists create Luhansk/Donetsk People’s Republics - fighting inconclusive
-Ukraine continues military buildup - further efforts to undermine Ukraine’s western orientation fail - then contributes to decision for war
