Civil War Flashcards
What is the Political Instability Task Force?
- CIA-sponsored academic research project
- Originated in mid-1990s as State Failure Task Force
- Examined every country except the US
What are the 2 factors highly predictive of political instability and violence?
- Anocracy
- Political parties mostly grouped around identity (race, ethnicity or religion)
What is an anocracy?
A country that is not fully democratic or fully autocratic but displays a mix of the two types
Who starts civil wars?
Not the poor/oppressed!
Groups that are dominant but losing power are more likely to initiate civil war
What are the Right and Wrong Types of Future War?
Mainstream security studies experts since 2014 have downgraded study of intra-state war
In contrast, some experts argue the future of war will be about civil wars rather than inter-state or great power wars
What important shift is happening in regards to civil wars and their importance?
Western military shift away from counterinsurgency towards large-scale inter-state war/hybrid war
What are the different types of civil war that can possibly start?
Full-blown civil war? or Upheaval, riots, low-level violence?
What are the key questions to ask for possible future civil wars?
- How will it begin?
- What sort of fighting?
- How will it end?
- What novel features relative to other civil wars?
What is the Civil Wars Research Boom?
After 1991, there has been an explosion in the study of intra-state wars, predominantly civil wars, among peace researchers, historians, political scientists, supporters of intergovernmental organisations, and quantitative scholars
Why did the Civil Wars Research Boom happen?
Due to 4 converging trends:
- Collapse of USSR
- Development failure in Africa
- Decline of interstate wars
- 9/11 aftermath
How were civil wars examined historically?
Used to be examined only on an individual basis
Historical studies avoided cross-case comparison and theory-building
How do historians and political scientists analyse civil wars differently?
Historians tend to focus on cases that are called civil wars rather than meeting a definition of civil war
Political scientists prefer large comparisons + post-1945 bias
Why study civil wars?
Since 1945 they have lasted far longer and have been far deadlier than inter-state wars
How have Great Powers changed their strategies in regards to civil conflicts?
Great powers avoid inter-state wars with each other, preferring to intervene in the civil wars of others
What is the Conflict Trap in civil war studies?
Pattern of civil war recurrence or an enduring cycle of violence
How did the Cold War reduce the frequency of civil wars? How did its end affect civil wars?
Geopolitical equilibrium of the Cold War kept a lid on simmering tensions, especially ethnic ones, across the world
Collapse of USSR leads to a new anarchy in global politics with a resultant rise in the number of civil wars
What is the idea that civil wars have changed in type?
“New wars are motivated by greed whereas old wars were motivated by political or social grievances”
What did Thomas Hobbes argue about civil wars?
- Focus on breakdown of sovereign authority
- Lack of authority (anarchy) results in civil war
- Elite actors, spurred by ambition, use ideological overtures to reshape ordinary individuals’ incentives to rebel
Why is civil war terminology complicated?
There is no one commonly accepted definition of a civil war
Many scholars utilise the terms intra-state war and civil war as synonymous
Some scholars prefer the term ‘internal war’
What is a civil war in simplest terms?
A violent conflict between a government and an organised rebel group
some scholars also include armed conflicts primarily between non-state actors within their study
What is the key factor to consider when categorising conflicts as civil wars?
Anti-colonial and imperial wars do not count as civil wars!
A number of definitional thresholds and criteria have emerged to distinguish civil wars from other forms of large-scale violence. What are some examples?
- magnitude and scope of the violence
- the spatial context
- nature and identity of the protagonists
What are the absolute key characteristics of civil wars?
- The goal of armed entities in civil war is power
- The entities that participate in a civil war must be organised
- The means by which these goals are accomplished is violence
- The context in which a civil war takes place is the sovereign nation state
- One of the participants is usually a government
What is the Correlates of War Typology for intra-state conflicts?
Intra-state wars are subdivided into three general types:
1. Civil Wars: government vs nonstate entity
2. Regional Internal War: government of regional sub-unit against a non-state entity
3. Intercommunal War: combat between/among two or more nonstate entities within a state
What are the two subtypes of civil wars in the Correlates of War Typology?
- Control of the central government
- Disputes over local issues
What is a central government according to the Correlates of War typology?
Forces that were at the start of the war in de facto control of the nation’s institutions, regardless of the legality or illegality of their claim
What are the criteria to be considered a war participant according to the Correlates of War typology?
For a state to be considered a war participant, the minimum requirement is that it has to either commit 1,000 troops to the war or suffer 100 battle-related deaths
Since nonstate armed groups are generally smaller than states and have fewer resources than states, they can be considered a war participant if it either commits 100 armed personnel to the war or suffers 25 battle-related deaths
What are key research findings on the economic factors of civil wars?
Intrastate armed conflict is more likely to occur in poor, developing countries with weak state structures
In situations of weak states the presence of lootable natural resources and oil increase the likelihood of experiencing armed conflict
While ethnic heterogeneity is not in isolation associated with a higher risk of armed conflict, ethnic or group domination of politics and economic opportunities does increase the risk
How can frustration lead to civil war?
Civil war can result from frustration if one group perceives an unfair advantage by another group in the political or economic realms
How can an anocracy lead to civil war?
Situations of partial or weak democracy (anocracy) and political transition, particularly a movement towards democracy in volatile or divided societies, are also strongly correlated to conflict onset
How can spillovers lead to civil war?
The location of a society - especially if it has other vulnerability factors - in a region which has contiguous neighbors which are experiencing or have experienced armed conflict is also an armed conflict risk
What is the Weak/Failing States Argument for civil wars?
Weak or failing state institutions provide an environment in which armed conflict emerges
Rebels will more likely take up arms when the perceived prospects for victory are enhanced by a weak state, the presence of terrain suitable for hiding, a stable revenue stream, and support from a local population
What is the significance of the Weak/Failing States Argument for civil wars?
Has many implications for the prevention of armed conflict in the developing world and policies aimed at building state capacity are now central to international development policy
What are the Greed vs Grievance Explanations of civil wars?
Greed-based explanations: focus on individuals’ desire to maximise profit
Grievance-based explanations: focus on conflict as a response to socio-economic or political injustice
What is the Greed Thesis of Paul Collier?
War over natural resources - generate revenue streams - i.e. organised crime but on much larger scale
Characterised by disorganised fighting with gratuitous violence
How can Ethnicity trigger civil wars?
Ethnic conflict driven by differential access to power, access to resources, economic status
How can Geography influence civil wars?
Presence of natural resources/narcotics increases the risk of civil war
How can Wealth influence civil wars?
Civil wars more likely to start in poorer countries; the poorer the country, the higher the risk
How can Economic Development influence civil wars?
Rapid social-economic change may mobilise social groups for conflict by enhancing competition for scarce resources
On other hand, economic modernisation and development should decrease inequalities within a society and increase political stability
How can Social Fractionalisation influence civil wars?
Ethnic, linguistic or religious differences may play an important role
Political and economic tensions may contribute to ethnopolitical conflict in multi-ethnic societies
Many civil wars in Africa have religious components
All civil wars in Africa have been substantially ethnic
How can Domestic Governance influence civil wars?
Democracies generally allow for peaceful negotiation
What are Internationalised Civil Wars?
Intra-state wars are classified as “internationalised” when an outside state or states intervenes in the war
The war remains classified as “internationalised” as long as the intervener does not take over the bulk of the fighting from one of the initial parties
However if the intervener takes over the bulk of the fighting, the war ceases to be an intra-state war and is transformed into a war of a different classification. What are example scenarios of this?
If the intervener comes in on the side of the government and then takes over the bulk of the fighting, the war is transformed into an extra-state war
If the intervener comes in on the side of the non-state entity and takes on the bulk of the fighting, the war is transformed into an inter-state war
Conversely, wars can also be transformed into intra-state wars, for example when a state withdraws from an inter-state war
How do civil wars attract foreign intervention?
Civil wars lead to international flows of refugees and human displacement leads to the diffusion of civil war which can in turn attract foreign intervention
Refugee camps can, in turn, become fertile recruiting grounds
Is the cure worse than the disease? Do civil war interventions backfire?
Peacekeeping and peacebuilding interventions are generally considered to be effective in helping to end civil wars and preventing recurrence
However, there are also debates over the effectiveness of the liberal peacebuilding model, and some suggest that rushing into elections before institutional capacity is addressed can be a harbinger of more violence
Military intervention aimed at supporting a protagonist or influencing the outcome of a conflict tends to increase the intensity of civil wars and increase their duration
It is commonly argued that wars ending with military victory are less likely to recur. Why?
- In these terminations one side no longer exists as a fighting force
- Negotiated settlements are often unstable as peace agreements can go unimplemented or one side reneges
What is the Scholarly Consensus on civil wars?
- YES: civil war afflicts poor countries (low GDP per capita important indicator)
- NO: unclear about the role of ethnic competition, foreign intervention, natural resources
