Trading the Open Flashcards
No matter how strong an open is what are the chances there will be a minor reversal and/or a major reversal?
No matter how strong a BO is on the Open there is an 80% chance there will be a Minor Reversal
and a 50% chance that there will be a MAJOR Reversal
3 Parts to the Day
3 Parts to the Day
Volume really is not important in the markets today
It doesn’t matter, TRADE WHAT IS RIGHT INFRONT of YOU
Volume really is not important in the markets today
It doesn’t matter, TRADE WHAT IS RIGHT INFRONT of YOU
Market Cycle = BO, CHANNEL and TR
There are only three things the market can do
- Be in a BO
- Be in a Channel
- Be in a TR
Market Cycle = BO, CHANNEL and TR
There are only three things the market can do
- Be in a BO
- Be in a Channel
- Be in a TR
(90% of the the trading days have at least to types of price action, traders are constantly looking for evidence of a transition from one cycle to another)
(10% of days are Strong Trend days)
(90% of the the trading days have at least to types of price action, traders are constantly looking for evidence of a transition from one cycle to another)
(10% of days are Strong Trend days)
On average usually how many swings are there in a Trading Day?
There is often 3 Swings in a Day
BOs, Channels, TRs all need to be traded differently
Be aware when one changes into another
Some days there is only 1 type of price action
BOs, Channels, TRs all need to be traded differently
Be aware when one changes into another
Some days there is only 1 type of price action
(No Opening Range on this Chart) Trend from the Open Bull Trend
and a Parabolic Wedge Top that reversed and formed the HIGH of the day
(No Opening Range on this Chart) Trend from the Open Bull Trend
and a Parabolic Wedge Top that reversed and formed the HIGH of the day
(Opening Range on this Chart) Tight TR Open for a couple of hours
Bulls bought the reversal Up and sold the reversal Down
(Opening Range on this Chart) Tight TR Open for a couple of hours
Bulls bought the reversal Up and sold the reversal Down
(Opening Range on this Chart) Market went sideways on the Open for several hours
Traders look to Trade Reversals buying Failed BOs near the bottom and buying HLs, selling DTs with reversals down
(Opening Range on this Chart) Market went sideways on the Open for several hours
Traders look to Trade Reversals buying Failed BOs near the bottom and buying HLs, selling DTs with reversals down
(Opening Range on this Chart) Gap Up with a DB the Bulls got a small Rally but it did not last long
(Opening Range on this Chart) Gap Up with a DB the Bulls got a small Rally but it did not last long
(Opening Range on this Chart) Bear Swing down from the Open Range
(Opening Range on this Chart) Bear Swing down from the Open Range
How many parts to the trading day do Traders Conclude that there is?
Traders conclude that there are 3 parts to the day, therefore they break them down into 3rds (Thirds)
The Open, what is it?…
The Open, what is it?…
Opening Reversals
In the first hour or two and sometimes in the very first minute of the day the market begins a Swing Trade and they’re SETUPS that often tell Traders a Swing Trade is about to being
Opening Reversals
In the first hour or two and sometimes in the very first minute of the day the market begins a Swing Trade and they’re SETUPS that often tell Traders a Swing Trade is about to being
Most days on the Open have some kind of BO before too long
Sometimes it is right on the Open
Most days on the Open have some kind of BO before too long
Sometimes it is right on the Open
No matter how strong a BO is on the Open there is an 80% chance there will be a Minor Reversal
and a 50% chance that there will be a MAJOR Reversal
No matter how strong a BO is on the Open there is an 80% chance there will be a Minor Reversal
and a 50% chance that there will be a MAJOR Reversal
Big Gap Down = 4 Common Outcomes
i) DT near EMA
ii) Wedge Top near EMA
iii) Double Bottom
iv) Wedge Bottom (Nested wedge, micro db)
*80% of days will have something like this if the market has a big Gap Down & only 20% of the time the Gap down will continue to Selloff to the DS
*In fact even if there is no Gap at ALL 80% of the time chances are I will get one of these patterns
Big Gap Down = 4 Common Outcomes
i) DT near EMA
ii) Wedge Top near EMA
iii) Double Bottom
iv) Wedge Bottom (Nested wedge, micro db)
*80% of days will have something like this if the market has a big Gap Down & only 20% of the time the Gap down will continue to Selloff to the DS
*In fact even if there is no Gap at ALL 80% of the time chances are I will get one of these patterns
Big Gap Up = 4 Common Outcomes
i) DB near EMA
ii) Wedge Bottom near EMA
iii) Double Top
iv) Wedge Top
*Remember 80% of the time on any open I will get at least a minor reversal and 50% of the time I will get Major reversal even if the initial move is very strong
Big Gap Up = 4 Common Outcomes
i) DB near EMA
ii) Wedge Bottom near EMA
iii) Double Top
iv) Wedge Top
*Remember 80% of the time on any open I will get at least a minor reversal and 50% of the time I will get Major reversal even if the initial move is very strong
VERY IMPORTANT
ON THE OPEN NO MATTER HOW STRONG THE SELLOFF OR NO MATTER HOW STRONG THE RALLY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF A REVERSAL… AGAIN NO MATTER HOW STRONG THE OPEN IS!
So DO NOT get fooled
VERY IMPORTANT
ON THE OPEN NO MATTER HOW STRONG THE SELLOFF OR NO MATTER HOW STRONG THE RALLY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF A REVERSAL… AGAIN NO MATTER HOW STRONG THE OPEN IS!
So DO NOT get fooled
Opening Reversal - Early Reversal at Support or Resistance
Opening Reversal - Early Reversal at Support or Resistance
Big Failed Bear BO = TR More likely than a Bull Trend
If initial sell off is 25 - 50% of average range, the often get a big bull trend after reversal (Rally went far above)
If initial sell off is 50 - 100% of average range, then usually get a TR Day, even if big rally. Sometimes get a huge bull trend(not on this chart though)
Big Failed Bear BO = TR More likely than a Bull Trend
If initial sell off is 25 - 50% of average range, the often get a big bull trend after reversal (Rally went far above)
If initial sell off is 50 - 100% of average range, then usually get a TR Day, even if big rally. Sometimes get a huge bull trend(not on this chart though)
By the close of Bar 18 there is a 90% chance we have seen either the high or low of the day
By the close of Bar 18 there is a 90% chance we have seen either the high or low of the day
Big Failed Bull BO = TR More likely than a Bear Trend
If initial rally is 25 - 50% of average range, the often get a big bear trend after reversal (Selloff fell below open)
If initial sell off is 50 - 100% of average range, then usually get a TR Day, even if big rally. Sometimes get a huge bull trend
Big Failed Bull BO = TR More likely than a Bear Trend
If initial rally is 25 - 50% of average range, the often get a big bear trend after reversal (Selloff fell below open)
If initial sell off is 50 - 100% of average range, then usually get a TR Day, even if big rally. Sometimes get a huge bull trend
Early BO - What is the Chance the H or L of the Day Already Formed?…
Early BO - What is the Chance the H or L of the Day Already Formed?…
How many bars form on a 5 minute chart per hour?
12 Bars form on a 5 Minute Chart per hour
Early BO - What is the Chance that the H or L of the Day already formed?…
By the close of Bar 18 there is a 90% chance we have seen either the high or low of the day
Early BO - What is the Chance that the H or L of the Day already formed?…
By the close of Bar 18 there is a 90% chance we have seen either the high or low of the day
Traders are always looking for a Swing Trade Early in the Day
Early High or Low of the Day; lets look at the 1st Bar
Traders are always looking for a Swing Trade Early in the Day
Early High or Low of the Day; lets look at the 1st Bar
Finding a Swing Trade on the Open
Early High or Low of the Day; 1st 35 Minutes
Finding a Swing Trade on the Open
Early High or Low of the Day; 1st 35 Minutes
Finding a Swing Trade on the Open
Early High or Low of the Day; 1st 90 Minutes
Finding a Swing Trade on the Open
Early High or Low of the Day; 1st 90 Minutes
Start and End of the Day - High Probability for a Swing Trade
There is a 90% chance of a swing trade beginning in the 1st 2 hours
Start and End of the Day - High Probability for a Swing Trade
There is a 90% chance of a swing trade beginning in the 1st 2 hours
Start and End of the Day - High Probability for a Swing Trade
There is a 80% chance of a swing trade beginning in the last 2 hours
Start and End of the Day - High Probability for a Swing Trade
There is a 80% chance of a swing trade beginning in the last 2 hours
Start and End of the Day - High Probability for a Swing Trade
There is a 50% chance of a swing trade beginning in the middle of the day
Start and End of the Day - High Probability for a Swing Trade
There is a 50% chance of a swing trade beginning in the middle of the day
Middle of the Trading Day is often quite there is a lot of success trading in the first 2 hours of the day and the last 2 hours of the day
Middle of the Trading Day is often quite there is a lot of success trading in the first 2 hours of the day and the last 2 hours of the day
Why Trade the open?
Because It has a high probability of having a swing trade,
where trader can make at least 4 Points
The Open… Why Trade?
Everyone should be looking for Swing Trades, and they are usually easiest to find it in the open as there is a high chance of finding it in the first hour or two
The Open… Why Trade?
Everyone should be looking for Swing Trades, and they are usually easiest to find it in the open as there is a high chance of finding it in the first hour or two
Reversal on 5 Minute Chart = Creates Tail on Daily Chart (Bull Day)
Reversal on 5 Minute Chart = Creates Tail on Daily Chart (Bull Day)
Reversal on 5 Minute Chart = Creates Tail on Daily Chart (Bear Day)
Reversal on 5 Minute Chart = Creates Tail on Daily Chart (Bear Day)
What are the 3 Most Common Patterns Traders see on the Open?
- Trend from the open
- BO Mode (BOM)
- Opening Reversal
Sometimes you have to take multiple entries as a Swing Trader before you get a good swing
Sometimes you have to take multiple entries as a Swing Trader before you get a good swing
MOST IMPORTANT RULE IS TO BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING AND DO NOT BE SURPRISED BY ANYTHING
Never have an opinion about what the market should do or not do
Simply just trade what is in front of you, do not worry why it is doing it
MOST IMPORTANT RULE IS TO BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING AND DO NOT BE SURPRISED BY ANYTHING
Never have an opinion about what the market should do or not do
Simply just trade what is in front of you, do not worry why it is doing it
Stop Order Entry - 90% of the Days
Patiently wait for a pattern and a good signal bar
Stop Order Entry - 90% of the Days
Patiently wait for a pattern and a good signal bar
Best Choice is Stop Orders or Enter on the Close of a Bar and Swing Trade
Patiently waiting for a pattern and a good signal bar is always best
Best Choice is Stop Orders or Enter on the Close of a Bar and Swing Trade
Patiently waiting for a pattern and a good signal bar is always best
Orders - Stop or Limit?
Orders - Stop or Limit?
Bar Counting on the Open - Low 1, 2, 3
Bar Counting on the Open - Low 1, 2, 3
Bar Counting on the Open - High 1, 2, 3
Bar Counting on the Open - High 1, 2, 3
Three common open patterns (Bears)
Three common open patterns (Bears)
Three common open patterns (Bulls)
Three common open patterns (Bulls)
How did yesterday end? It is important to know because it quite often affects how I will trade usually in the first couple of hours
How did yesterday end? It is important to know because it quite often affects how I will trade usually in the first couple of hours
Context is less Important on the Open of the Day
A reversal always takes place at support or resistance that was created during prior days
Context is less Important on the Open of the Day
A reversal always takes place at support or resistance that was created during prior days
It is very helpful when you are trading the 5 min chart and look at the daily chart to see what the market has done over the past several days
It is very helpful when you are trading the 5 min chart and look at the daily chart to see what the market has done over the past several days
Context: TR on Higher TF
Bars are having two day reversals making TR days on 5minute TFs likely
Context: TR on Higher TF
Bars are having two day reversals making TR days on 5minute TFs likely
Context, Bull Trend on Higher Time Frame
If most days on the daily chart were bull trend bars, probability is higher for today of having an early low that creates a tail on the bottom of the bar on the daily
Context, Bull Trend on Higher Time Frame
If most days on the daily chart were bull trend bars, probability is higher for today of having an early low that creates a tail on the bottom of the bar on the daily
Look at this Daily Chart, what do you see to the left?
Over the past 8-10 Bars NO BULL BODIES… Chances are the market will selloff early in the day like most of the bars did to the left
Look at this Daily Chart, what do you see to the left?
Over the past 8-10 Bars NO BULL BODIES… Chances are the market will selloff early in the day like most of the bars did to the left
Context, on ANY higher TF can be Important
Context, on ANY higher TF can be Important
The END of Yesterday affects the beginning of today and the tone for the day
Context, Yesterday Ended with a BUY CLIMAX what some possibilities for todays market conditions with that context?
The END of Yesterday affects the beginning of today and the tone for the day
Context, Yesterday Ended with a BUY CLIMAX what some possibilities for todays market conditions with that context?
The END of Yesterday affects the beginning of today
Context, Yesterday Ended with a SELL CLIMAX what some possibilities for todays market conditions with that context?
The END of Yesterday affects the beginning of today
Context, Yesterday Ended with a SELL CLIMAX what some possibilities for todays market conditions with that context?
Swing Trade with the use of the context from yesterday, signal bar, and BO
Swing Trade with the use of the context from yesterday, signal bar, and BO
If I see a pair of BIG BULL Bars on the open odds are it will NOT be a Bear Trend Day it will probably be a TR or Bull Trend Day
and
If I see a pair of BIG BEAR Bars on the open odds are it will not be a Bull Trend Day it will probably be a TR or Bear Trend Day
If I see a pair of BIG BULL Bars on the open odds are it will NOT be a Bear Trend Day it will probably be a TR or Bull Trend Day
and
If I see a pair of BIG BEAR Bars on the open odds are it will not be a Bull Trend Day it will probably be a TR or Bear Trend Day
When you have a Big Gap up on the Open you often get a selloff to the Moving Average
When you have a Big Gap up on the Open you often get a selloff to the Moving Average
Leg in Trend or TR?
Whenever you see really good looking bull bars with bad follow-through, the rally is more likely a bull leg in what will become a TR
Leg in Trend or TR?
Whenever you see really good looking bull bars with bad follow-through, the rally is more likely a bull leg in what will become a TR
Context is important always pay attention to what the bars to the left look like
Especially the daily chart; if most of the days are bull days chances are today will be a bull day, if most of the days are bear days chances are today will be a bear day and that means it will probably get an early selloff, if most of the days are doji bars and the market is in a TTR on the Daily chart chances are today will be a doji day as well(which means the market will go one way and than reverse and go the other way and try and close near the open)
Context is important always pay attention to what the bars to the left look like
Especially the daily chart; if most of the days are bull days chances are today will be a bull day, if most of the days are bear days chances are today will be a bear day and that means it will probably get an early selloff, if most of the days are doji bars and the market is in a TTR on the Daily chart chances are today will be a doji day as well(which means the market will go one way and than reverse and go the other way and try and close near the open)
If yesterday was a strong trend day there is a …
50% chance there will be a strong continuation of that trend in the 1st two hours today and a 75% that today will be sideways and go in the opposite direction for a couple of hours starting by the end of the 2nd hour
Only a 25% chance today will be an opposite trend
If yesterday was a strong trend day there is a …
50% chance there will be a strong continuation of that trend in the 1st two hours today and a 75% that today will be sideways and go in the opposite direction for a couple of hours starting by the end of the 2nd hour
Only a 25% chance today will be an opposite trend
For BOM I am looking for a new high that reverses down and then a new low below the low of the 1st bar that reverses up
Ideally the 2nd reversal occurs on the 10th bar or later
And this opening range is about about half the size of an average opening days range or less
For BOM I am looking for a new high that reverses down and then a new low below the low of the 1st bar that reverses up
Ideally the 2nd reversal occurs on the 10th bar or later
And this opening range is about about half the size of an average opening days range or less
BO of the range of the 1st 18 BARS
In either of these BOs once you get the first BO there is a 90% chance the market will not BO beyond the opposite side of the day/range
For example if I get a Bull BO 90% chance the day will be a Bull day or a TR day and vice versa for the Bears if I get a Bear BO (Bear Day or TR Day)
BO of the range of the 1st 18 BARS
In either of these BOs once you get the first BO there is a 90% chance the market will not BO beyond the opposite side of the day/range
For example if I get a Bull BO 90% chance the day will be a Bull day or a TR day and vice versa for the Bears if I get a Bear BO (Bear Day or TR Day)
At the end of 18 Bars there is a 90% the market has seen its high or low of the day
At the end of 18 Bars there is a 90% the market has seen its high or low of the day
Most Days are a early TR that lead to a BO
You want the initial range to be about the size of half the range of a decent day
(Check your chart notes from 9/2/2020 this day did just this)
Most Days are a early TR that lead to a BO
You want the initial range to be about the size of half the range of a decent day
(Check your chart notes from 9/2/2020 this day did just this)
At the close of the 18 th Bar there is a 90% chance that the market has seen either the low or high of the day and traders will look to trade a BO of the Range of this 18th Bar indicator for the high or low of the day.
At the close of the 18 th Bar there is a 90% chance that the market has seen either the low or high of the day and traders will look to trade a BO of the Range of this 18th Bar indicator for the high or low of the day.
BO of Opening Range - 2 Types that are common …
BOM Open Tr after 1st Bar but not more than 1 bar initial rally or selloff on the open
&
BO of 1st 18 Bars whether or not there is a TR
BO of Opening Range - 2 Types that are common …
BOM Open Tr after 1st Bar but not more than 1 bar initial rally or selloff on the open
&
BO of 1st 18 Bars whether or not there is a TR
A lot of Traders will FRONT RUN the pattern, they expect the BO to occur and do not wait for it they enter early
A lot of Traders will FRONT RUN the pattern, they expect the BO to occur and do not wait for it they enter early
BOM on Open - Sell the BO below Reversal up for MM Down
BOM on Open - Sell the BO below Reversal up for MM Down
When the initial range is less than 10 bars, some computers will wait to see if bigger opening range forms, then sell BO
SELL BO below Reversal up from MM Down
When the initial range is less than 10 bars, some computers will wait to see if bigger opening range forms, then sell BO
SELL BO below Reversal up from MM Down
BOM on Open - If the pattern is Small, WAIT for Follow-Through
Selling at the bottom of a TTR is tough and a lot of Traders will wait to sell on the PB Bear Flag (maybe a Wedge Top Flag)
BOM on Open - If the pattern is Small, WAIT for Follow-Through
Selling at the bottom of a TTR is tough and a lot of Traders will wait to sell on the PB Bear Flag (maybe a Wedge Top Flag)
BOM with Bull BO - 90% chance of a Bull Trend or TR
BOM with Bull BO - 90% chance of a Bull Trend or TR
BOM on Open, BUY BO above Reversal down for MM Up
A lot of times on the open when you are looking to trade a swing you take multiple trade entires with some losers and winners before you finally get the swing
BOM on Open, BUY BO above Reversal down for MM Up
A lot of times on the open when you are looking to trade a swing you take multiple trade entires with some losers and winners before you finally get the swing
Bom Open - Sell BO below Reversal up for MM down
Bom Open - Sell BO below Reversal up for MM down
BOM Open - Enter again on PB and 2nd BO
BOM Open - Enter again on PB and 2nd BO
If TR Price Action it is likely to remain a TR DAY
If TR Price Action it is likely to remain a TR DAY
When Traders think a BO is going to take place A LOT of times they will Front Run the BO
On this Chart Buy Reversal up “2nd Entry” from a test of the low FOR a potential front runner for the BULLS
On this Chart Buy Reversal down “2nd Entry” from a test of the high FOR a potential front runner for the BEARS
When Traders think a BO is going to take place A LOT of times they will Front Run the BO
On this Chart Buy Reversal up “2nd Entry” from a test of the low FOR a potential front runner for the BULLS
On this Chart Buy Reversal down “2nd Entry” from a test of the high FOR a potential front runner for the BEARS
18th Bar - Look for a BO or Reversal between Bars 16 - 20
18th Bar - Look for a BO or Reversal between Bars 16 - 20
Encapsulating the 18th Bar into some kind of range also helps to trade with a lot more context
Encapsulating the 18th Bar into some kind of range also helps to trade with a lot more context
BO BELOW 18 Bar Range - TR Day
BO BELOW 18 Bar Range - TR Day
On PBs look for TESTS of the Signal Bars High
A great location is here to enter on a PB Entry
On PBs look for TESTS of the Signal Bars High
A great location is here to enter on a PB Entry
BOM on Open - Many New Highs and Lows
BOM on Open - Many New Highs and Lows
BOM of 1st 18 Bars it often goes sideways
BOM of 1st 18 Bars it often goes sideways
BTC Deep PB so TR Day Likely
BTC Deep PB so TR Day Likely
Sometimes when the market reverses up from below Yesterdays Low it becomes a Bear Flag and then the Bear Trend Resumes so I have to be aware that the reversal will not always work and I have to be prepared for the Bear Trend to resume and I have to get Short again and the opposite is true at the high.
If the market breaks above Yesterdays High and Reverses down but the Reversal becomes a Bull Flag , I have to be prepared to get out of Shorts and to look to get LONG
Sometimes when the market reverses up from below Yesterdays Low it becomes a Bear Flag and then the Bear Trend Resumes so I have to be aware that the reversal will not always work and I have to be prepared for the Bear Trend to resume and I have to get Short again and the opposite is true at the high.
If the market breaks above Yesterdays High and Reverses down but the Reversal becomes a Bull Flag , I have to be prepared to get out of Shorts and to look to get LONG
Yesterdays High is important Resistance & Yesterdays Low is important Support
If the market breaks above yesterdays high and reverses down that is a reasonable sell especially if there is a 2nd entry sell for a swing down
AND
If the market breaks below yesterdays low and reverses up that is a reasonable buy especially if there is a 2nd entry buy for a swing up
Yesterdays High is important Resistance & Yesterdays Low is important Support
If the market breaks above yesterdays high and reverses down that is a reasonable sell especially if there is a 2nd entry sell for a swing down
AND
If the market breaks below yesterdays low and reverses up that is a reasonable buy especially if there is a 2nd entry buy for a swing up
Failed BO of Yesterday’s H or L FOCUS on the 2nd Reversal for a 2nd Entry
Failed BO of Yesterday’s H or L FOCUS on the 2nd Reversal for a 2nd Entry
2nd Failed BO High of Yesterday - MICRO DT
Micro DT so L2 opening reversal down from yesterdays high
2nd Failed BO High of Yesterday - MICRO DT
Micro DT so L2 opening reversal down from yesterdays high
2nd Failed BO above Yesterdays H - STRONG BEAR
2nd Failed BO above Yesterdays H - STRONG BEAR
Opening Reversal (ORV) - 2nd Reversal down from Yesterdays High
Failed BO above yesterdays high
Sell 2nd reversal down (opening reversal), you want a bear signal bar for a reasonable short for a swing down
Opening Reversal (ORV) - 2nd Reversal down from Yesterdays High
Failed BO above yesterdays high
Sell 2nd reversal down (opening reversal), you want a bear signal bar for a reasonable short for a swing down
Whenever the previous day was a small quiet TR Day it increases the odds that the present day will have an outside day (Trading outside the range of yesterday on either side - outside down day & an outside up day)
Failed BO above Yesterdays H - 2nd Sell Signal for a short
Failed BO below Yesterdays L - Parabolic Wedge Bottom, Buy reversal up from micro DB or But at PB after strong reversal up
Whenever the previous day was a small quiet TR Day it increases the odds that the present day will have an outside day (Trading outside the range of yesterday on either side - outside down day & an outside up day)
Failed BO above Yesterdays H - 2nd Sell Signal for a short
Failed BO below Yesterdays L - Parabolic Wedge Bottom, Buy reversal up from micro DB or But at PB after strong reversal up
Opening Reversal (ORV) - 2nd Reversal up from below Yesterdays Low
Opening Reversal (ORV) - 2nd Reversal up from below Yesterdays Low
2nd Failed BO below Yesterdays L - Reversal Day, DOJI Day
2nd Failed BO below Yesterdays L - Reversal Day, DOJI Day
Parabolic Wedge (PW) Bottom - 2nd Failed BO below Yesterday’s Low
Whenever you have a very big sell off and than a reversal it is usually a TR Day not a Bull Trend Day
Parabolic Wedge (PW) Bottom - 2nd Failed BO below Yesterday’s Low
Whenever you have a very big sell off and than a reversal it is usually a TR Day not a Bull Trend Day
Opening Reversal (ORV) - 2nd Failed BO below Yesterdays Low
Big Bear Trend (Gap Down) Open, Big Down after Big Down = Big confusion so probable TR day and we got a Bear Trend resumption near the end of the day
Opening Reversal (ORV) - 2nd Failed BO below Yesterdays Low
Big Bear Trend (Gap Down) Open, Big Down after Big Down = Big confusion so probable TR day and we got a Bear Trend resumption near the end of the day
Gap Down Failed to BO below Yesterdays Low, 2nd Entry buy entry!
Gap Down Failed to BO below Yesterdays Low, 2nd Entry buy entry!
Every Pattern can fail and I should be aware of how a failure looks
Failed BO above H of Yesterday; 2nd Entry Short Failed
At some point I have to decide the Sell is going to Fail
Every Pattern can fail and I should be aware of how a failure looks
Failed BO above H of Yesterday; 2nd Entry Short Failed
At some point I have to decide the Sell is going to Fail
Sometimes the market will BO above Yesterdays high and then reverse down and then the Bulls will Buy the Reversal and the BO than Resumes = a failed reversal BO of yesterdays range
AND
the same can happen at the bottom break Below yesterdays Low and try to reverse up but that reversal attempt fails and the day becomes a Bear Trend
Sometimes the market will BO above Yesterdays high and then reverse down and then the Bulls will Buy the Reversal and the BO than Resumes = a failed reversal BO of yesterdays range
AND
the same can happen at the bottom break Below yesterdays Low and try to reverse up but that reversal attempt fails and the day becomes a Bear Trend
It is pretty common that you have to take several trades before you get a swing
It is pretty common that you have to take several trades before you get a swing
Failed BO above H of Yesterday; 2nd Entry Short FAILED
Failed BO above H of Yesterday; 2nd Entry Short FAILED
Failed BO Low of Yesterday; 2nd Reversal Up
Remember on the open no matter how strong the open is there is a 50% chance it will reverse
Failed BO Low of Yesterday; 2nd Reversal Up
Remember on the open no matter how strong the open is there is a 50% chance it will reverse
Gap openings; they can be anything such as a Gap above or below yesterdays high or low OR simply a Gap below or above the final bar of yesterday
Gap openings; they can be anything such as a Gap above or below yesterdays high or low OR simply a Gap below or above the final bar of yesterday
Its important to think of a Gap as a BO and a BO on the Open has a 50% chance of reversing
Its important to think of a Gap as a BO and a BO on the Open has a 50% chance of reversing
If there is a big gap there is a slightly higher probability there will be a trend in the direction of the gap
Therefore a HUGE gap down slightly more a probably for a Trend Day Down and vice versa for a HUGE gap up
If there is a big gap there is a slightly higher probability there will be a trend in the direction of the gap
Therefore a HUGE gap down slightly more a probably for a Trend Day Down and vice versa for a HUGE gap up
On the open the market often enters a TR and that TR can become a Flag
For Example if I have a Gap Down then followed by a Rally up to the high of the day near the MA , I can have a DT Bear Flag for the possible High of the Day
If I get a couple legs up it could be a Wedge Bear Flag High of the Day
On the open the market often enters a TR and that TR can become a Flag
For Example if I have a Gap Down then followed by a Rally up to the high of the day near the MA , I can have a DT Bear Flag for the possible High of the Day
If I get a couple legs up it could be a Wedge Bear Flag High of the Day
Gap Up Creates Support which is a magnet
Computers use gaps as targets and they have many choices
Gap Up Creates Support which is a magnet
Computers use gaps as targets and they have many choices
Whenever there is a Gap Up it is a BO
BOs on the open have a 50% chance of reversing
Generally the Bigger the Gap up the odds increase of it being a Trend Day and the Bigger the Gap the Bigger the potential Trend Day
Whenever there is a Gap Up it is a BO
BOs on the open have a 50% chance of reversing
Generally the Bigger the Gap up the odds increase of it being a Trend Day and the Bigger the Gap the Bigger the potential Trend Day
Big Gaps up = 25% of the Time you get a Bull or Bear Trend from open and the Remaining 50% of the time you will get the market moving sideways
Big Gaps up = 25% of the Time you get a Bull or Bear Trend from open and the Remaining 50% of the time you will get the market moving sideways
Whenever there is a Gap Down it is a BO
BOs on the open have a 50% chance of reversing
Generally the Bigger the Gap down the odds increase of it being a Trend Day and the Bigger the Gap the Bigger the potential Trend Day
Whenever there is a Gap Down it is a BO
BOs on the open have a 50% chance of reversing
Generally the Bigger the Gap down the odds increase of it being a Trend Day and the Bigger the Gap the Bigger the potential Trend Day
Gap Down Creates Resistance which is a magnet
Computers use gaps as targets and they have many choices
Gap Down Creates Resistance which is a magnet
Computers use gaps as targets and they have many choices
Whenever you have a BIG GAP DOWN like this, the odds are that youre going to get a Trend Day and the odds are slightly higher that it will be a bear Trend Day
However a Bull Trend Day can still occur as you can see here it turned into a Bull Trend for the First several hours
Whenever you have a BIG GAP DOWN like this, the odds are that youre going to get a Trend Day and the odds are slightly higher that it will be a bear Trend Day
However a Bull Trend Day can still occur as you can see here it turned into a Bull Trend for the First several hours
Do not think to much much the news is saying
There is a Big Gap down and the market is going up you have to buy
Do not think to much much the news is saying
There is a Big Gap down and the market is going up you have to buy
Big Gaps down = 25% of the Time you get a Bull or Bear Trend from open and the Remaining 50% of the time you will get the market moving sideways
Big Gaps down = 25% of the Time you get a Bull or Bear Trend from open and the Remaining 50% of the time you will get the market moving sideways
Very often I will have to take multiple entries before it leads to a sign trade, as I can see on this chart which eventually did become a TR day
Very often I will have to take multiple entries before it leads to a sign trade, as I can see on this chart which eventually did become a TR day
Gap Up - Bull Trend from the Open
Many early Big Bull Bars early on closing near their highs = odds are a Bull Trend day or TR are likely and a bear trend is unlikely
I must BUY Early
Gaps and Negative Gaps are signs that the market is going higher
Gap Up - Bull Trend from the Open
Many early Big Bull Bars early on closing near their highs = odds are a Bull Trend day or TR are likely and a bear trend is unlikely
I must BUY Early
Gaps and Negative Gaps are signs that the market is going higher
Big Gap Up - Reversal down, Then Bear Trend from the Open
Even with big gap up, many early big bear bars closing near their lows make it a bear trend or TR likely
and make the bull trend unlikely
Big Gap Up - Reversal down, Then Bear Trend from the Open
Even with big gap up, many early big bear bars closing near their lows make it a bear trend or TR likely
and make the bull trend unlikely
When I have a huge sell off to start the day and I get a big reversal it will have a hard time closing above the early high of the day
If it gets above it, most likely the market will back below it and also close below it
When I have a huge sell off to start the day and I get a big reversal it will have a hard time closing above the early high of the day
If it gets above it, most likely the market will back below it and also close below it
Gap Down - Bear Trend Day from the Open
Many early big bear bars closing near their low makes it likely to be a bear trend day or a TR day and the bull trend day is unlikely
Consecutive big bear bars closing below their midpoints, AIS = Sell Close of follow-through bar
Gap Down - Bear Trend Day from the Open
Many early big bear bars closing near their low makes it likely to be a bear trend day or a TR day and the bull trend day is unlikely
Consecutive big bear bars closing below their midpoints, AIS = Sell Close of follow-through bar
Gap Down - Reversal up, then Bull Trend From the Open
Even with big gap down, many early big bull bars closing near their highs make a Bull Trend or TR day likely and a bear trend day unlikely
Gap Down - Reversal up, then Bull Trend From the Open
Even with big gap down, many early big bull bars closing near their highs make a Bull Trend or TR day likely and a bear trend day unlikely
The market forms Bull/Bear Flags on the OPEN; DBs, DTs, Wedges, etc
The market forms Bull/Bear Flags on the OPEN; DBs, DTs, Wedges, etc
Big Gap Up and a Rally followed by an 8 Bear Bar Selloff, then a DB @ the MA
DB with low of day so Opening Reversal up from MA(Support)
Also, about 50% from rally up from yesterday’s low
Big Gap Up and a Rally followed by an 8 Bear Bar Selloff, then a DB @ the MA
DB with low of day so Opening Reversal up from MA(Support)
Also, about 50% from rally up from yesterday’s low
Gap Up - Wedge Bottom PB to MA (Wedge Bull Flag just above Moving Average)
Whenever there is a very strong Rally on the open it is common for the market to go sideways
Gap Up - Wedge Bottom PB to MA (Wedge Bull Flag just above Moving Average)
Whenever there is a very strong Rally on the open it is common for the market to go sideways
Sometimes it is easier to connect the low of the first bar and the low of the third bar to form the Wedge even if the second bar overshoots, that is ok
Sometimes it is easier to connect the low of the first bar and the low of the third bar to form the Wedge even if the second bar overshoots, that is ok
Gap Down - DT Bear Flag just below MA
Gap Down - DT Bear Flag just below MA
Gap Down - DT Bear Flag just below MA
Higher Probability to Sell below Bear Bars or sell the close of consecutive bear bars
Gap Down - DT Bear Flag just below MA
Higher Probability to Sell below Bear Bars or sell the close of consecutive bear bars
Gap Down - Wedge Bear Flag at MA = Sell on BEAR SELL SIGNAL Bar below MA
Gap Down - Wedge Bear Flag at MA = Sell on BEAR SELL SIGNAL Bar below MA
