Swing Trading Examples Flashcards
How much percent of the time is the the BO phase followed by a PB then a Channel or TR?
90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB and then a Channel or a TR
Spike and Channel is a very common pattern
Opening Reversal - Into a Bull Trend
50% of opens have failed BOs and Reversals
Strong Selloff and then Opening Reversal Trapped Bears
After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs & with little overlap there is a 70% chance of a least a MM up (after the failed opening sell off now turned bull trend)
Opening Reversal - Into a Bull Trend
50% of opens have failed BOs and Reversals
Strong Selloff and then Opening Reversal Trapped Bears
After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs & with little overlap there is a 70% chance of a least a MM up (after the failed opening sell off now turned bull trend)
Spike and Channel Bull Trend - A VERY COMMON PATTERN
90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB and then a Channel or a TR
10% of the time the Bull BO reverses, it is usually as a Parabolic Wedge Top when this reversal occurs
Spike and Channel Bull Trend - A VERY COMMON PATTERN
90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB and then a Channel or a TR
10% of the time the Bull BO reverses, it is usually as a Parabolic Wedge Top when this reversal occurs
Swing Trades that begin on the open usually last at least 2-3 hours, but can be 30 minutes to 4 hours
Swing Trades that begin on the open usually last at least 2-3 hours, but can be 30 minutes to 4 hours
How much percentage of the time do Bull BOs reverse? And what pattern usually leads to the reversal?
10% of the time the Bull BO reverses, it is usually as a Parabolic Wedge Top when this reversal occurs
Bull Opening Reversal then TR
Failed attempt @ follow-through buying, after yesterday’s strong close
@ the opening of the day if I see TWO BIG BEAR BARS closing on their lows I should determine the market is AIS
Bull Opening Reversal then TR
Failed attempt @ follow-through buying, after yesterday’s strong close
@ the opening of the day if I see TWO BIG BEAR BARS closing on their lows I should determine the market is AIS
What Pattern is the on the open?
Parabolic Wedge Top
This is a very common pattern on the open (Remember 50% of Strong Opens REVERSE!)
Typical in a Parabolic Wedge opening reversal, when it starts to reverse it goes down in a fairly tight channel for 5 or 10 bars.
If instead it goes for 5 or 6 bars and then bounces for a little bit then it probably will not be a parabolic wedge top bear trend
Whenever I have a Wedge and the final push leg is Strong odds are the wedge will be a 2nd leg up
Whenever I have a Wedge and the final push leg is Strong odds are the wedge will be a 2nd leg up
This is a FAIRLY COMMON PATTERN ON THE OPEN
PARABOLIC WEDGE TOP then Bear Trend
This could be a Bull Trend in what would become a TR or The High of the Day so a Bear Trend Day; therefore I must be prepared to sell
This is a FAIRLY COMMON PATTERN ON THE OPEN
PARABOLIC WEDGE TOP then Bear Trend
This could be a Bull Trend in what would become a TR or The High of the Day so a Bear Trend Day; therefore I must be prepared to sell
In a Triangle there is a 50% BO in either direction
In a Triangle there is a 50% BO in either direction
Bull Trend, then TR; Bulls want a Trend Resumption
Bull Trend, then TR; Bulls want a Trend Resumption
Parabolic Wedge Top then Failed Bear BO
It is very important to mark the LOD and HOD as a failed BO in these S/R can warrant a move up or down entry up the failed BO.
When there is a wedge or a DB or any pattern that strengthens these failed BOs for a trade it is a great entry
Parabolic Wedge Top then Failed Bear BO
It is very important to mark the LOD and HOD as a failed BO in these S/R can warrant a move up or down entry up the failed BO.
When there is a wedge or a DB or any pattern that strengthens these failed BOs for a trade it is a great entry
Sell Climax then a WEAK BULL CHANNEL
This is TR Price Action
Sell Climax then a WEAK BULL CHANNEL
This is TR Price Action
Parabolic Wedges are not only up they can also be down
Whenever I get a series of 3 or 4 Consecutive Sell Climaxes on the Open I have to be thinking about an Opening Reversal - A parabolic Wedge Selloff then Reversal up and end of the Bear Trend
Parabolic Wedges are not only up they can also be down
Whenever I get a series of 3 or 4 Consecutive Sell Climaxes on the Open I have to be thinking about an Opening Reversal - A parabolic Wedge Selloff then Reversal up and end of the Bear Trend
Once the market is clearly controlled by the bears, bears will bet that a BO above a prior high will fail
LOM should only be used once a Traded develops a better relationship with the market with screen time
Once the market is clearly controlled by the bears, bears will bet that a BO above a prior high will fail
LOM should only be used once a Traded develops a better relationship with the market with screen time
BO above Yesterday’s High then PB
3 consecutive Buy Climaxes - Parabolic Wedge Top but in a tight channel so a bear is unlikely without a TR and a MTR
BO above Yesterday’s High then PB
3 consecutive Buy Climaxes - Parabolic Wedge Top but in a tight channel so a bear is unlikely without a TR and a MTR
Reversal Down from Gap Up and Might Resume Up
No Follow - Through buying after yesterdays strong close
Failed BO above yesterdays’s high
STC of Big Bear Bar or Follow - Through Bar
Shorts exit above strong bull buy signal bar near MA
Reversal Down from Gap Up and Might Resume Up
No Follow - Through buying after yesterdays strong close
Failed BO above yesterdays’s high
STC of Big Bear Bar or Follow - Through Bar
Shorts exit above strong bull buy signal bar near MA
Opening Reversal - Wedge PB to MA
After yesterdays strong rally, look for an Opening Reversal up from MA and then trend resumption up into a Spike and Channel bull Trend
Opening Reversal - Wedge PB to MA
After yesterdays strong rally, look for an Opening Reversal up from MA and then trend resumption up into a Spike and Channel bull Trend
Gap Up, BOM - DB Bull Flag
Gap Up, BOM - DB Bull Flag
Tight Bull Channel - BET BEAR REVERSALS WILL FAIL
Tight Bull Channel = ONLY BUY
Tight Bull Channel - BET BEAR REVERSALS WILL FAIL
Tight Bull Channel = ONLY BUY
BIG GAP UP - DB Bull Flag at MA
BIG GAP UP - DB Bull Flag at MA
Whenever I have a BTC market and then a Big Reversal/Deep PB I must look to Buy above a Bull Bar
The 2nd entry should be at least 2-3x Bigger then a minimum scalp
Whenever I have a BTC market and then a Big Reversal/Deep PB I must look to Buy above a Bull Bar
The 2nd entry should be at least 2-3x Bigger then a minimum scalp
Strong Rally Late in Bull - Probably an EXHAUSTIVE RALLY
Strong Rally Late in Bull - Probably an EXHAUSTIVE RALLY
Bull Leg in a TR
Bull Leg in a TR
Bear Trend from Open - If Weak, WATcH FOR a RALLY
Yesterday ended with a TTR in a TR day, inertia means more TR price action is LIKELY
Selloff on open
No consecutive big bear bars
No clear sell signals or signal bar
Tails, small bars, overlap, reversals, Probably a bear leg in a TR DAY
Bear Trend from Open - If Weak, WATcH FOR a RALLY
Yesterday ended with a TTR in a TR day, inertia means more TR price action is LIKELY
Selloff on open
No consecutive big bear bars
No clear sell signals or signal bar
Tails, small bars, overlap, reversals, Probably a bear leg in a TR DAY
At some point in a weak bear trend open you will determine a TR is likely and look for reason to Buy in on the weak Bear Leg; Wedge Bottom then Bull Trend
At some point in a weak bear trend open you will determine a TR is likely and look for reason to Buy in on the weak Bear Leg; Wedge Bottom then Bull Trend
Rally from GAP DOWN OPEN - Can fail around MA and 50% PB
Rally from GAP DOWN OPEN - Can fail around MA and 50% PB
Wedge Top then Bear TREND
Sell Wedge LH @ MA
Gap Bar, 50% PB
Wedge Top then Bear TREND
Sell Wedge LH @ MA
Gap Bar, 50% PB
TR Yesterday - Increases Chance of TR Today
Yesterday had a lot of TR Price Action and Today opened with a lot of TR Price Action
Made a lot of TR price action likely for next several hours
TR Yesterday - Increases Chance of TR Today
Yesterday had a lot of TR Price Action and Today opened with a lot of TR Price Action
Made a lot of TR price action likely for next several hours
DB then Triangle and TTR
Sell DT Bear Flag at MA; STRONG SELL SIGNAL Bar
Buy Tight Channel so probably a minor reversal
Lack if consecutive big bear bars so probably bear leg in a TR, not a Bear Trend
DB then Triangle and TTR
Sell DT Bear Flag at MA; STRONG SELL SIGNAL Bar
Buy Tight Channel so probably a minor reversal
Lack if consecutive big bear bars so probably bear leg in a TR, not a Bear Trend
Everyone wants clear trading; most days are not very clear so taking the best looking setups will most times yield the best trading results
Everyone wants clear trading; most days are not very clear so taking the best looking setups will most times yield the best trading results
Bear Channel - Hold Short but it can be difficult
Bear Channel - Hold Short but it can be difficult
Final Bear Flag then a Strong Bull Swing
Gap Down, TTR, BOM (50% chance of a BO in either direction)
50% chance the first BO will reverse
Bear BO and follow-through
- 50% chance of Measuring Gap
- 50% chance of Exhaustion Gap
Final Bear Flag then a Strong Bull Swing
Gap Down, TTR, BOM (50% chance of a BO in either direction)
50% chance the first BO will reverse
Bear BO and follow-through
- 50% chance of Measuring Gap
- 50% chance of Exhaustion Gap
Final Bear Flag then TR Day
Buy failed bear BO (Possible low of the DAY)
Spike and channel bull trend, but 16 bar bull micro channel (this is unsustainable and therefore climatic)
Buy Climax so PB soon likely
Final Bear Flag then TR Day
Buy failed bear BO (Possible low of the DAY)
Spike and channel bull trend, but 16 bar bull micro channel (this is unsustainable and therefore climatic)
Buy Climax so PB soon likely
TR Day then a Late Bear BO
TR Day then a Late Bear BO
Parabolic Wedge Bottoms are less common than Parabolic Wedge Tops
Here, Wedge, but not very climatic, so not extremely oversold.
Not as much need of strong reversal of oversold market, no consecutive big bear bars, not a parabolic curve down
Parabolic Wedge Bottoms are less common than Parabolic Wedge Tops
Here, Wedge, but not very climatic, so not extremely oversold.
Not as much need of strong reversal of oversold market, no consecutive big bear bars, not a parabolic curve down
Early Low- Higher Probability to wait for Strong Rally
It is okay to buy swing , but better to wait as likely there is more sellers above as bears still have more imminent pressure and bigger bodies
Early Low- Higher Probability to wait for Strong Rally
It is okay to buy swing , but better to wait as likely there is more sellers above as bears still have more imminent pressure and bigger bodies
Wedge Bottom - Higher Probability to wait for a Rally to then Buy
Wedge Bottom - Higher Probability to wait for a Rally to then Buy
Wedge Bottom FAILED
Bear Trends are always forming Wedge Bottoms and Bull Trends are always forming Wedge Tops
When the channel down is very tight the reversals are probably minor and the channels will become bear flags and the market will probably continue down
Wedge Bottom FAILED
Bear Trends are always forming Wedge Bottoms and Bull Trends are always forming Wedge Tops
When the channel down is very tight the reversals are probably minor and the channels will become bear flags and the market will probably continue down
What are ALL MTR Bottoms?
They are all DBS
2 Legs Down - Then another Bottom Attempt
Another Bear BO below wedge Bottom
Nested Wedge (final leg subdivides into smaller wedges)
NOW ANOTHER PARABOLIC WEDGE BOTTOM (also reached the MM Target)
2 Legs Down - Then another Bottom Attempt
Another Bear BO below wedge Bottom
Nested Wedge (final leg subdivides into smaller wedges)
NOW ANOTHER PARABOLIC WEDGE BOTTOM (also reached the MM Target)
2nd Bottom is to likely be the End of the Bear Trend
Consecutive Sell Climaxes, TBTL sideways to up is likely to follow
2nd Bottom is to likely be the End of the Bear Trend
Consecutive Sell Climaxes, TBTL sideways to up is likely to follow
Strong BO usually Traps Traders; 2nd Legs are usually Likely
Strong BO usually Traps Traders; 2nd Legs are usually Likely
Consecutive Bottoms often form High 4 Buy Setups
When bottoms fails, there are often then 2 legs down and another bottom; this is a High “4” buy setup
High 4 buy setups are just a pair of consecutive bottoms where both have 2-3 legs down
Consecutive Bottoms often form High 4 Buy Setups
When bottoms fails, there are often then 2 legs down and another bottom; this is a High “4” buy setup
High 4 buy setups are just a pair of consecutive bottoms where both have 2-3 legs down
High 4 Bottom - 60% chance of 2 Legs Sideways to up
Buy above failed low 2 sell setup
Buy close of strong bull bar or follow-through bar
Became a BTC Bull Trend
Take Profits below failed BO above LH or, rely of stop and hold for a 2nd Leg Up
High 4 Bottom - 60% chance of 2 Legs Sideways to up
Buy above failed low 2 sell setup
Buy close of strong bull bar or follow-through bar
Became a BTC Bull Trend
Take Profits below failed BO above LH or, rely of stop and hold for a 2nd Leg Up
Reversal Down from 2nd Leg Up the Bull will TAKE PROFITS
Reversal Down from 2nd Leg Up the Bull will TAKE PROFITS
Wedge Bottom Opening Reversal Up from SUPPORT
Failed BO below yesterday’s low
Parabolic Wedge Bottom - Opening reversal up from below yesterday’s low (support)
Buy above weak buy signal bar
The traders who prefer a higher probability trade can buy the close of the bull BO bar, or close of follow-through bar
Wedge Bottom Opening Reversal Up from SUPPORT
Failed BO below yesterday’s low
Parabolic Wedge Bottom - Opening reversal up from below yesterday’s low (support)
Buy above weak buy signal bar
The traders who prefer a higher probability trade can buy the close of the bull BO bar, or close of follow-through bar
Micro Channel with Many Bars = Buy Climax
16 Bar Bull Micro Channel is unsustainable and therefore a climax
Stop goes far below so bulls need to take partial profits to reduce risk; a TR is likely soon
Micro Channel with Many Bars = Buy Climax
16 Bar Bull Micro Channel is unsustainable and therefore a climax
Stop goes far below so bulls need to take partial profits to reduce risk; a TR is likely soon
Big Gap Down then Reversal Up
Failed BO below yesterday’s low the market is now AIS(the market is going at least a little bit higher)
Possible Trend From the Open Bull Trend
Big Gap Down then Reversal Up
Failed BO below yesterday’s low the market is now AIS(the market is going at least a little bit higher)
Possible Trend From the Open Bull Trend
Bull Reversal but LACKS Consecutive Big Bull Ball
Early Buys are lower probability, but stop is close so it is lower risk
Bull Reversal but LACKS Consecutive Big Bull Ball
Early Buys are lower probability, but stop is close so it is lower risk
Weak Rally = Probably will move sideways towards the MA
Weak Rally = Probably will move sideways towards the MA
DT but Strong Enough Bull Bars for More TR
Losing momentum, far below the magnet of the MA
Possible TR and sideways to MA
So possible new low without converting into a Bear Trend
DT but Strong Enough Bull Bars for More TR
Losing momentum, far below the magnet of the MA
Possible TR and sideways to MA
So possible new low without converting into a Bear Trend