Entering Late in Trends Flashcards
Missed Trading a Hugh Trend Out of Fear …
Did you watch this and not buy?
If so, probably out of fear that the stop was far away, which can cause a huge loss
Beginners fear loss and as a result miss great trades.
Understanding Market Cycle will allow the fear to reduce
Missed Trading a Hugh Trend Out of Fear …
Did you watch this and not buy?
If so, probably out of fear that the stop was far away, which can cause a huge loss
Beginners fear loss and as a result miss great trades.
Understanding Market Cycle will allow the fear to reduce
What is a good way to not be trapped out of a bull trend?
A good way is to be a “Buy The Close” bull.
Buy the close of a Strong Bull Bar for scalps and swings
Bulls Trapped out of the Bull Trend and Bears Trapped In
Bulls Trapped out of the Bull Trend and Bears Trapped In
Many are afraid to Enter Late but the math is still often Good
Buy The Close BOs can be difficult to manage since sometimes they reverse quickly
Many are afraid to Enter Late but the math is still often Good
Buy The Close BOs can be difficult to manage since sometimes they reverse quickly
After about 10-20 bars in a bull trend, are the bulls acting as if bears are trapped?
Yes they are, absolutely
They know bears are panicking and start buying aggressively for a swing up and if it loses momentum the Bulls will start taking profits
If the bulls are disappointed after buying the close of a bull bar what is likely to occur?
The bulls may become disappointed at the follow-through after they bought the close.
It is more likely a PB or a TR may soon emerge in the markets
Bears Trapped out of Bear Trend and often the Bulls are often Trapped In
Bears Trapped out of Bear Trend and often the Bulls are often Trapped In
What is one of the best techniques to avoid missing a Bear Trend?
The BEST way to avoid missing a Bear Trend is to Sell Closes.
Sell the close of a Strong Bear Bar for Scalps and Swings
All Trends Finally END
To find the Final Trend Bar just look at any trend and find any PB or Reversal
All Trends Finally END
To find the Final Trend Bar just look at any trend and find any PB or Reversal
After the Final Trend what happens?
After it reverses it is easy too see and find the Final Bull/Bear Bar and highest/lowest close
Who does noise exist to in the markets?
Noise only exists for Traders who do not think.
Every tick matters and nothing is noise. Everything is important, even if too small for you to trade
The markets are always giving new information, but we must be open to what it is saying
When should a Trader Sell the Close Bears?
Sell the Close in a Strong Bear BO, begin selling Bear closes
Disappointed Bears here on this chart, can they avoid a Loss?
They can try to Buy back their shorts at Breakeven or a tick or two above and the Bulls see this and know the market will soon reverse up as the Bears and Bulls are buying at the same time
When the Bears are disappointed with the follow-through after a Sell the Close entry, what warning is this for Traders?
This is a warning for Traders of a Possible Reversal
Sell The Close Bears in a Strong Bear BO, SELL CLOSES
Sell The Close Bears in a Strong Bear BO, SELL CLOSES
Buy The Close Bulls in a Strong Bull BO, BUY CLOSES
Buy The Close Bulls in a Strong Bull BO, BUY CLOSES
If the Bears are Disappointed after a Sell the Close Bear entry, what is the market likely to do after the disappointment?
The market may be pulling back into a TR or maybe reversing
What do the disappointed Bears do in this scenario?
They will try to get out Breakeven and the Bulls know they are trying to do this and will look to buy to counter scalp or buy for a swing reversal up
As Price Action Changes so does the Style of Trading
As Price Action Changes so does the Style of Trading
In the Market Cycle what phase is the BO Phase followed by?
The BO Phase is followed by a Channel or TR
Once I have identified a final trend bar what must I watch for?
Watch for the Trend Reversal or Resumption
For example if I sold below the lowest Bear Trend Bar on this chart after I see the Bull follow-through I may say to myself that this may be the final Bear Trend Bar and the market is about to Reverse
When the Bulls see a Final Bull Trend Bar what are they doing?
They are quickly selling out of longs, not buying aggressively so not creating BIG BULL BO
When the Bears see a Final Bear Trend Bar what are they doing?
They are quickly selling out of shorts, not selling aggressively so not creating BIG BEAR BO
With the Bulls buying here they hoped for continued bull rally, they knew big bar at resistance (TR TOP) was a possible exhaustion.
What would the bulls and bears do in this situation?
There may be some trapped bulls and most bulls will attempt to get out break even because of the disappointing follow-through.
The Bears see this and bet short from the now TOP of a TR (Sell High)
If there is Bad Follow-Through the Bulls will change their Goal
If there is Bad Follow-Through the Bulls will change their Goal
Bear BO - Remaining Bulls Finally Gave Up
Bear BO - Remaining Bulls Finally Gave Up
With the Bears selling here they hoped for continued bear selloff, they knew big bar at resistance (TR Bottom) was a possible exhaustion.
What would the bears and bulls do in this situation?
There may be some trapped bears and most bears will attempt to get out break even because of the disappointing follow-through.
The Bulls see this and bet long from the now Bottom of a TR (Buy Low)
Strong Bull BO - Remaining Bears Exited with a Loss
Strong Bull BO - Remaining Bears Exited with a Loss
The missed test of this bears entry by two ticks tells the trader what? And what do this Bulls do with this information?
This tells the trader that the Bears were just trying to get out of their shorts at Break even
and this tells the bull trader that the Bears are trapped short and failed to get out Break even and it is no time to start buying long
Sell the close Bears will sell closes during the BO
Sell the close Bears will sell closes during the BO
a Strong Bear BO and follow-through like this, looking left to the context, do the odds favor an exhaustion gap
(with a reversal) or measuring gap( and a measuring move down with the test of the next support level)
There is a higher probability of a Measuring Move down for lower prices
When do Bear become cautious?
They become cautious after a Big Tail or Bull Bar
As the Trend Weakens the Bears will Change their Strategy
The Bears become eager to buy out of their shorts to avoid a Bigger Loss
As the Trend Weakens the Bears will Change their Strategy
The Bears become eager to buy out of their shorts to avoid a Bigger Loss
What do the disappointed Bears try to get?
The disappointed Bears try to get out Breakeven
When the Bulls see and know the Bears are Trapped what will and should they do?
When Bulls see Trapped Bears they will place limit orders a tick or two above where the bears are trying to take their profit, which could lead to a reversal
Sell the Close Bears are not confident of Lower Prices
Sell the Close Bears are not confident of Lower Prices
When the Bears start to give up what do the Bulls do?
When the bears start to sense there is an increasing probability of a reversal they start to give up and the Bulls start to buy
Strong BO - Good Context so 2 Legs up Likely
When the Bears Buy here betting on this being a TR but a Bull BO with great follow-through ensues, higher prices are likely for a possible Measured Move up
Strong BO - Good Context so 2 Legs up Likely
When the Bears Buy here betting on this being a TR but a Bull BO with great follow-through ensues, higher prices are likely for a possible Measured Move up
Sell the Close Bears gave up and Took the Loss
Sell the Close Bears gave up and Took the Loss
When Buying in a Bear Trend/Channel,
look for many Reasons to do so
When Buying in a Bear Trend/Channel,
look for many Reasons to do so
Where do ALL Sell Climaxes end?
All Sell Climaxes end at Support
All Bear Trend Reversals take place at support
a Big BO Late into a trend is usually what?
The end of the trend or the start of a new leg down?
It is usually the End of the Trend
: At a minimum the Bulls who buy at the bottom of a Sell Climax would expect a minimum target to reach where?
The bulls believe there is a 60% chance that the market will go above or to the top of the final big bar before it falls lower.
Tight TR - The Bears are Now as Strong as the Bulls
Tight TR - The Bears are Now as Strong as the Bulls
If there is a Strong Bear BO but its a Climax
would you buy the close or sell the close?
Buy the Close (look at the chart below)
Can a Tight TR (TTR) be a MTR?
Yes it can
Every bar that gets added to the TTR makes the reversal being closer to 50/50 for a MTR
Here we have a LH DT in the TTR
The odds of 2 legs down are 40%
40% chance of a Bear MTR from a Bull Trend what is the minimum goal?
The minimum goal is 2 Legs Down
AIS = Higher Probability for the Bears
AIS = Higher Probability for the Bears
Probability of Lower Prices - High after a Strong Bear BO
Probability of Lower Prices - High after a Strong Bear BO
Whenever you have any kind of Buy or Sell Climax where is the minimum Target?
The minimum target for the reversal is always the Bottom or Top of the Climax
Sell a Buy Climax and place Stop just Above Measured Move
Sell a Buy Climax and place Stop just Above Measured Move
Buy Climax - Look for Reasons to Sell
Buy Climax - Look for Reasons to Sell
Climax does not always mean reversal, sometimes it is just a pause/break in the trend rather than a climatic reversal
Climax does not always mean reversal, sometimes it is just a pause/break in the trend rather than a climatic reversal
Strong Bull BO, but Climax - Sell the Close
Strong Bull BO, but Climax - Sell the Close
