Trading Broad Bear Channels & TRs Flashcards

1
Q

Broad Bear Channels are not common on 5 minute chart as these charts usually have about 100 Bars on the screen and Broad Bear Channels usually have more bars on the screen to show the Broad Channel

A

Broad Bear Channels are not common on 5 minute chart as these charts usually have about 100 Bars on the screen and Broad Bear Channels usually have more bars on the screen to show the Broad Channel

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2
Q

Broad Channels are still a Bear Trend

Therefore Traders find it easier to make money by Selling

A

Broad Channels are still a Bear Trend

Therefore Traders find it easier to make money by Selling

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3
Q

Bear Channels can be Tight or Broad

A

Bear Channels can be Tight or Broad

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4
Q

Broad Channels are similar to TRs

A

Broad Channels are similar to TRs

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5
Q

Broad Channels and TRs are the same for about 90% of the Bars

A

Broad Channels and TRs are the same for about 90% of the Bars

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6
Q

Broad Channels are Tight Channels on Higher TFs

A

Broad Channels are Tight Channels on Higher TFs

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7
Q

Broad Channel is Mostly in one or more TRs

The more the bars look like they are in a TR, the more traders will trade them like they are in a TR (BLSHS)

A

Broad Channel is Mostly in one or more TRs

The more the bars look like they are in a TR, the more traders will trade them like they are in a TR (BLSHS)

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8
Q

a Broad Bear Channel is Simply TR that is slightly tilted down

A

a Broad Bear Channel is Simply TR that is slightly tilted down

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9
Q

Broad Channels, How do you know when it is Broad?

A

Legs up and down lasting mostly 5 or more Bars

Size of avg leg is at least 3 times bigger than the smallest scalp (1 point in eMini)

Size of leg is at least 2-3 times the size of avg Bar

PB often more than 50% and sometimes 100%

1 or more rallies strong enough for may traders to see AIL

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10
Q

In a Broad Bear Trend there are times when it is actually in AIL

Bulls and Bears can make MONEY

A

In a Broad Bear Trend there are times when it is actually in AIL

Bulls and Bears can make MONEY

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11
Q

In Broad Bear Channels usually PBs OVERLAP BO Points

Broad Bear Channels often contain many TRs as they have many TR qualities to it

A

In Broad Bear Channels usually PBs OVERLAP BO Points

Broad Bear Channels often contain many TRs as they have many TR qualities to it

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12
Q

5 Minute Chart with Broad Channel = Typically a Wedge Bottom Pattern

It is important to keep in mind with the 3rd push down in the Wedge nearing the end of the day; there is not much more time for the swing down to contain so this increases the odds of a successful wedge bottom reversal

A

5 Minute Chart with Broad Channel = Typically a Wedge Bottom Pattern

It is important to keep in mind with the 3rd push down in the Wedge nearing the end of the day; there is not much more time for the swing down to contain so this increases the odds of a successful wedge bottom reversal

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13
Q

Broad Channels are not common on 5 minute charts, how come … ?

Usually can not clearly form a Broad Channel on a 5 minute chart in one day unless there are 100+ bars

To believe it is a bear channel and not a a TR, usually need at least 3 Legs Up and 3 Legs Down

A

Broad Channels are not common on 5 minute charts, how come … ?

Usually can not clearly form a Broad Channel on a 5 minute chart in one day unless there are 100+ bars

To believe it is a bear channel and not a a TR, usually need at least 3 Legs Up and 3 Legs Down

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14
Q

5 Minute Day Traders should just Trade Each Segment (Trade what is infront of you)

A

5 Minute Day Traders should just Trade Each Segment (Trade what is infront of you)

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15
Q

Broad Channels on 5 Minute Charts usually takes 2 or More Days to form on a 5 Minute Charts

A

Broad Channels on 5 Minute Charts usually takes 2 or More Days to form on a 5 Minute Charts

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16
Q

When there is a Broad Channel on 5 minute Chart that is over the course of several days consider using the 60 Minute Chart instead

A

When there is a Broad Channel on 5 minute Chart that is over the course of several days consider using the 60 Minute Chart instead

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17
Q

5 Minute Broad Channel = Can be a Tight Channel on the 60 Minute Chart

A

5 Minute Broad Channel = Can be a Tight Channel on the 60 Minute Chart

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18
Q

Major High; Leads to Strong Bear BOs and usually a new Low

A

Major High; Leads to Strong Bear BOs and usually a new Low

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19
Q

Minor Highs often get Failed BOs Above

In Broad Channels it is common for the market to be in a Channel, Bull Trend and a TR

A

Minor Highs often get Failed BOs Above

In Broad Channels it is common for the market to be in a Channel, Bull Trend and a TR

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20
Q

Broad Bear Channels contain Bull Trends and TRs

A

Broad Bear Channels contain Bull Trends and TRs

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21
Q

The First 6 Days of a 9 Day Broad Bear Channel have a lot of variety

A

The First 6 Days of a 9 Day Broad Bear Channel have a lot of variety

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22
Q

Most Traders Trade Each Day by itself and Not apart of the 9 Day Broad Bear Channel

A

Most Traders Trade Each Day by itself and Not apart of the 9 Day Broad Bear Channel

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23
Q

All Major Reversals are relatively long in probability

40% Chance of becoming a Trend

They are an OK buy if I hold for a REWARD that is 2x Actual Risk

A

All Major Reversals are relatively long in probability

40% Chance of becoming a Trend

They are an OK buy if I hold for a REWARD that is 2x Actual Risk

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24
Q

Possible TR so will the Bulls Buy?

A

Yes they will as they see TWO Legs down with a lot over overlap among the bars with big tails. So they conclude this may be a TR and the will begin to buy reversals up from Two Legs down and Sell Reversals down from Two Legs up

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25
When not clearly in Broad Bear Channel, TRADE WHAT IS CLEAR
When not clearly in Broad Bear Channel, TRADE WHAT IS CLEAR
26
In general you should want to see 3 pushes down before I conclude the market is in a Broad Bear Channel Then it is @ a Wedge bottom and traders look to buy reversal up
In general you should want to see 3 pushes down before I conclude the market is in a Broad Bear Channel Then it is @ a Wedge bottom and traders look to buy reversal up
27
What part of the Market Cycle? You always want to early diagnosis what cycle the market is in
What part of the Market Cycle? You always want to early diagnosis what cycle the market is in
28
In general you should want to see 3 pushes down before I conclude the market is in a Broad Bear Channel Then it is @ a Wedge bottom and traders look to buy reversal up
In general you should want to see 3 pushes down before I conclude the market is in a Broad Bear Channel Then it is @ a Wedge bottom and traders look to buy reversal up
29
When not clearly in Broad Bear Channel, TRADE WHAT IS CLEAR
When not clearly in Broad Bear Channel, TRADE WHAT IS CLEAR
30
Possible TR so will the Bulls Buy?
Yes they will as they see TWO Legs down with a lot over overlap among the bars with big tails. So they conclude this may be a TR and the will begin to buy reversals up from Two Legs down and Sell Reversals down from Two Legs up
31
All Major Reversals are relatively long in probability 40% Chance of becoming a Trend They are an OK buy if I hold for a REWARD that is 2x Actual Risk
All Major Reversals are relatively long in probability 40% Chance of becoming a Trend They are an OK buy if I hold for a REWARD that is 2x Actual Risk
32
Broad Bear Channel is a BEAR TREND so look to SELL
Broad Bear Channel is a BEAR TREND so look to SELL
33
Stairs Pattern = PB goes back beyond BO Points
Stairs Pattern = PB goes back beyond BO Points
34
Once there is a Deep PB or AIL, the Bulls will BUY Selloffs Some bulls buy below prior low Some bears buy below prior low to take profits
Once there is a Deep PB or AIL, the Bulls will BUY Selloffs Some bulls buy below prior low Some bears buy below prior low to take profits
35
Once there is a Deep PB or AIL, the Bulls will BUY New LOW Bulls buy @ new low expecting PB above BO point like the last time
Once there is a Deep PB or AIL, the Bulls will BUY New LOW Bulls buy @ new low expecting PB above BO point like the last time
36
Never certain but each bar gives new information Traders are constantly trying to decide if probability is 60% for the next few bars going up or down
Never certain but each bar gives new information Traders are constantly trying to decide if probability is 60% for the next few bars going up or down
37
Some computers see this as AIL
Some computers see this as AIL
38
Most Broad Channels are also in TRs
Most Broad Channels are also in TRs
39
The market is in BOM but there is a slight higher probability for the Bears due to the CONTEXT With it being a Tight TR in the Pattern it is probably better to Sell for a Swing down opposed to a Scalp
The market is in BOM but there is a slight higher probability for the Bears due to the CONTEXT With it being a Tight TR in the Pattern it is probably better to Sell for a Swing down opposed to a Scalp
40
Weak Selloff = Possible Sell Leg in a Big TR The Nested Wedge Bottom is a great sign for the Bears to Take Profits and Bulls to Buy for a Swing or Scalp up
Weak Selloff = Possible Sell Leg in a Big TR The Nested Wedge Bottom is a great sign for the Bears to Take Profits and Bulls to Buy for a Swing or Scalp up
41
All Trends eventually END Look for MM targets to Take Profits on a MTR
All Trends eventually END Look for MM targets to Take Profits on a MTR
42
Some traders do not like to take many trades (In and Out, In and Out) Afraid they will not be able to re-enter the market and might miss a big swing So this is why it is better for traders to swing trade with a Wide Stop
Some traders do not like to take many trades (In and Out, In and Out) Afraid they will not be able to re-enter the market and might miss a big swing So this is why it is better for traders to swing trade with a Wide Stop
43
Entering with a Limit Orders make sure to use a Reasonable Stop
Entering with a Limit Orders make sure to use a Reasonable Stop
44
Scale In to increase chance of profitability Some bulls will buy more lower and this increases the chances of profit, this increases risk so trade small enough so that risk is acceptable
Scale In to increase chance of profitability Some bulls will buy more lower and this increases the chances of profit, this increases risk so trade small enough so that risk is acceptable
45
Taking Profits in a TR; many Traders will Scalp It is ok to Scalp out at 1 - 2x Actual Risk as long as it is Bigger that the minimum Emini Scalp (1 Point) \*Remember that minimum needed for a profitable Trader's Equation; the minimum is rarely the best choice
Taking Profits in a TR; many Traders will Scalp It is ok to Scalp out at 1 - 2x Actual Risk as long as it is Bigger that the minimum Emini Scalp (1 Point) \*Remember that minimum needed for a profitable Trader's Equation; the minimum is rarely the best choice
46
Taking Profits in a TR has many Logical Choices
Taking Profits in a TR has many Logical Choices
47
Swing Trades = 4+ Points / Scalp = 1 - 3 Points
Swing Trades = 4+ Points / Scalp = 1 - 3 Points
48
Take Profits at Big Swings Up and Down, so Many Traders will Swing
Take Profits at Big Swings Up and Down, so Many Traders will Swing
49
TR Day often gets a Late Test of the Open of the Day
TR Day often gets a Late Test of the Open of the Day
50
TRs are very Forgiving to Limit Order Traders who are able to use WIDE STOPS and Scale In Good Management is NECESSARY
TRs are very Forgiving to Limit Order Traders who are able to use WIDE STOPS and Scale In Good Management is NECESSARY
51
TRs can be a Tight Trading Range (TTR) a Tight TR is a Limit Order Market
TRs can be a Tight Trading Range (TTR) a Tight TR is a Limit Order Market
52
TTR most Traders should NOT TRADE But to Trade in a TTR you want the Height of the TR to be at least either 3 times the size of the avg bar or 3 times the size of a minimum Scalp (1 point) so 3 points
TTR most Traders should NOT TRADE But to Trade in a TTR you want the Height of the TR to be at least either 3 times the size of the avg bar or 3 times the size of a minimum Scalp (1 point) so 3 points
53
TR = LOM
TR = LOM
54
ALL TRs eventually BO into Trends When the BO successfully occurs with the BO Bar closing near its low with strong follow-through; EXIT POSITION at the market DO NOT WAIT for a better Exit YOU are WRONG, GET OUT it is ok to be wrong
ALL TRs eventually BO into Trends When the BO successfully occurs with the BO Bar closing near its low with strong follow-through; EXIT POSITION at the market DO NOT WAIT for a better Exit YOU are WRONG, GET OUT it is ok to be wrong
55
In a TR when the Bulls have a BO the Bears will SELL it betting on the reversal down AND when the Bears have a BO the Bulls will BUY it betting on the reversal up
In a TR when the Bulls have a BO the Bears will SELL it betting on the reversal down AND when the Bears have a BO the Bulls will BUY it betting on the reversal up
56
BOs can be made of a Channel and many Small BARS
BOs can be made of a Channel and many Small BARS
57
Strong 2nd Leg is a Trap - Hopeful Beginner Bets on a Trend in a Rally
Strong 2nd Leg is a Trap - Hopeful Beginner Bets on a Trend in a Rally
58
Most Swings have 2 Legs or Wedges, especially swings UP/DOWN in TRs Many Legs subdivide into 2 or 3 Legs It is very common to have Legs that are Wedges in TRs
Most Swings have 2 Legs or Wedges, especially swings UP/DOWN in TRs Many Legs subdivide into 2 or 3 Legs It is very common to have Legs that are Wedges in TRs
59
Trend Bars in a TR = EXPECT BAD FOLLOW - THROUGH
Trend Bars in a TR = EXPECT BAD FOLLOW - THROUGH
60
Strong 2nd Leg is a Trap - Hopeful Beginner Bets on a Trend in a Selloff
Strong 2nd Leg is a Trap - Hopeful Beginner Bets on a Trend in a Selloff
61
a Beginner gets Trapped when Buying High and/or Selling Low in a TR
a Beginner gets Trapped when Buying High and/or Selling Low in a TR
62
a Beginner gets Trapped when Buying High and/or Selling Low
a Beginner gets Trapped when Buying High and/or Selling Low
63
Fade BOs (Bet they will FAIL) An Expert will Fade a BO betting of Trapped Traders
Fade BOs (Bet they will FAIL) An Expert will Fade a BO betting of Trapped Traders
64
An Expert Trader knows that an Exhaustion Gap is more likely than a Measuring Gap when the market is in TR and they look to sell Reversals Down and Up
An Expert Trader knows that an Exhaustion Gap is more likely than a Measuring Gap when the market is in TR and they look to sell Reversals Down and Up
65
An Expert will Fade a BO betting of Trapped Traders
An Expert will Fade a BO betting of Trapped Traders
66
Timing for an Entry in a TR can be difficult Waiting for a 2nd Entry in a TR yields a lot greater success especially if not confident! A Skilled traders often uses a Wide Stop or Scales in
Timing for an Entry in a TR can be difficult Waiting for a 2nd Entry in a TR yields a lot greater success especially if not confident! A Skilled traders often uses a Wide Stop or Scales in
67
Stop Order entries work in TR when the market is going in my desired direction
Stop Order entries work in TR when the market is going in my desired direction
68
Strong Leg in a TR = Wait for 2nd Signal When a First leg is strong wait for a 2nd entry buy signal, like a Micro DB or strong bull BO When a First leg is strong wait for a 2nd entry sell signal, like a Micro DT or strong bear BO
Strong Leg in a TR = Wait for 2nd Signal When a First leg is strong wait for a 2nd entry buy signal, like a Micro DB or strong bull BO When a First leg is strong wait for a 2nd entry sell signal, like a Micro DT or strong bear BO
69
Protective Stops beyond Signal Bar
Protective Stops beyond Signal Bar
70
Protective Stops, Not too Wide
Protective Stops, Not too Wide
71
Scaling In in TRs increases probability BUT adds Risk
Scaling In in TRs increases probability BUT adds Risk
72
Scaling In is only for Expert Traders Only
Scaling In is only for Expert Traders Only
73
The reasons Traders Scale In is to increase probability of profits or to reduce size/probability of loss and Pay for this with increased risk SO trade SMALL
The reasons Traders Scale In is to increase probability of profits or to reduce size/probability of loss and Pay for this with increased risk SO trade SMALL
74
Most Traders never plan for a WIDE STOP to get HIT Usually it is better to exit with a loss when I believe the trade is bad Exit on the close of the follow-through bar against my trade direction
Most Traders never plan for a WIDE STOP to get HIT Usually it is better to exit with a loss when I believe the trade is bad Exit on the close of the follow-through bar against my trade direction
75
Scaling In has many CHOICES
Scaling In has many CHOICES
76
Using a Wide Stop protects against Black Swan Catastrophes
Using a Wide Stop protects against Black Swan Catastrophes
77
What is the purpose of me using a Wide Stop?
The purposes of a wide stop are to give time to make decisions, and to protect against black swan events A Trader always plans to exit before wide stop is hit
78
Sell Zones in a Bear BO or Tight Channel When selloff is strong, bears look to sell PB to middle of prior leg (SELL ZONE) Sell with limit order @ 50% PB Sell reversal down
Sell Zones in a Bear BO or Tight Channel When selloff is strong, bears look to sell PB to middle of prior leg (SELL ZONE) Sell with limit order @ 50% PB Sell reversal down
79
Sell Zone in Top 3rd which when the market appears in more of a TR then a Channel & PN Sell above LH Sell with limit order at 60-70% PBs rally more than 50% & above prior significant highs, bears look to sell in top 3rd of prior leg(Sell Zone)
Sell Zone in Top 3rd which when the market appears in more of a TR then a Channel & PN Sell above LH Sell with limit order at 60-70% PBs rally more than 50% & above prior significant highs, bears look to sell in top 3rd of prior leg(Sell Zone)
80
Bear Trend so you can SELL at ANY TIME
Bear Trend so you can SELL at ANY TIME
81
In a Broad Bear Channel it is better to Sell PBs than BOs Similar to TRs it is easier to make money if I wait for PB to sell DO NOT SELL BO below Prior Low
In a Broad Bear Channel it is better to Sell PBs than BOs Similar to TRs it is easier to make money if I wait for PB to sell DO NOT SELL BO below Prior Low
82
Profit Taking Zones Below Low
Profit Taking Zones Below Low
83
Broad Bear Channels expect DEEP PBs (Bear Rallies) Broad Bear Channel just a TR that is sloped down Bears expect deep PBs (rallies)
Broad Bear Channels expect DEEP PBs (Bear Rallies) Broad Bear Channel just a TR that is sloped down Bears expect deep PBs (rallies)
84
Strong Bulls BO Attempts REVERSE DOWN QUICKLY Because Bears expect deep PBs and often wait to sell until in the it reaches in the top half, there can be a lack of sellers in the BOTTOM HALF This often Creates a Buy Vacuum and Strong Bull BO making bulls think they've won Once the bull BO reaches the sell zone(top2/3rds) bears SELL AGGRESSIVELY and overwhelm the bulls, and create another LH
Strong Bulls BO Attempts REVERSE DOWN QUICKLY Because Bears expect deep PBs and often wait to sell until in the it reaches in the top half, there can be a lack of sellers in the BOTTOM HALF This often Creates a Buy Vacuum and Strong Bull BO making bulls think they've won Once the bull BO reaches the sell zone(top2/3rds) bears SELL AGGRESSIVELY and overwhelm the bulls, and create another LH
85
Sometimes there is 2 Choices for a Stop, they are both REASONABLE 1. Major LH - new high or strong rally, followed by a strong bear BO to a new low in the trend 2. Minor LH - PB in bear leg * Using the Tighter Stop lose less money BUT lose more often * Using the Wider Stop lose more money BUT lose less often
Sometimes there is 2 Choices for a Stop, they are both REASONABLE 1. Major LH - new high or strong rally, followed by a strong bear BO to a new low in the trend 2. Minor LH - PB in bear leg * Using the Tighter Stop lose less money BUT lose more often * Using the Wider Stop lose more money BUT lose less often
86
50% PB Why Sell? If bear channel, then bear trend, even if it is weak Bear Trends means the probability of new low are greater than probability of a new high & @ 50% PB the Risk equals the Reward Take Profits @ prior low or on Reversal up
50% PB Why Sell? If bear channel, then bear trend, even if it is weak Bear Trends means the probability of new low are greater than probability of a new high & @ 50% PB the Risk equals the Reward Take Profits @ prior low or on Reversal up
87
Minor 50% PBs are STILL A GOOD SELL
Minor 50% PBs are STILL A GOOD SELL
88
@ 50% PB the Risk equals the Reward
@ 50% PB the Risk equals the Reward
89
Broad Channel has TRs than BOs ANY Broad Channel is gong to have SEVERAL TRs
Broad Channel has TRs than BOs ANY Broad Channel is gong to have SEVERAL TRs
90
TRs are typically in BOM Every Bear Trend TRs contains Bottoming Patterns
TRs are typically in BOM Every Bear Trend TRs contains Bottoming Patterns
91
A PATTERN often has 2 or more ways to label it DO NOT LOSE SIGHT OF THE GOAL
A PATTERN often has 2 or more ways to label it DO NOT LOSE SIGHT OF THE GOAL
92
Every Bear BO is a Failed Bottom When a bottom fails, bulls give up and sell out with a LOSS Bears sell BO, looking for a MM down
Every Bear BO is a Failed Bottom When a bottom fails, bulls give up and sell out with a LOSS Bears sell BO, looking for a MM down
93
Every Rally in a Bear Trend is a BEAR FLAG
Every Rally in a Bear Trend is a BEAR FLAG
94
Every TR in a Bear Trend contains a Bear Flag Even though TR is in BOM and the probability is 50/50 for Bulls and Bears as long as the market is still making LHs, then it is still in a bear trend And it is easier for the Bears to make money, at least on higher TF charts
Every TR in a Bear Trend contains a Bear Flag Even though TR is in BOM and the probability is 50/50 for Bulls and Bears as long as the market is still making LHs, then it is still in a bear trend And it is easier for the Bears to make money, at least on higher TF charts
95
On 5minute charts, trade each day as each swing develops About as easy to make money buying or selling
On 5minute charts, trade each day as each swing develops About as easy to make money buying or selling
96
Bear BO of Broad Bear Channel usually FAILS! Bear BO below a bear channel has a 75% chance of reversing back up within about 5 bars(on the highest TF with the pattern) Only a 25% chance of a successful bear BO below a Bear Channel BO eventually is followed by a another bear channel and MM down
Bear BO of Broad Bear Channel usually FAILS! Bear BO below a bear channel has a 75% chance of reversing back up within about 5 bars(on the highest TF with the pattern) Only a 25% chance of a successful bear BO below a Bear Channel BO eventually is followed by a another bear channel and MM down
97
Trade a Bear BO from a Bear Channel like any other BO Sell for any reason and hold for swing down
Trade a Bear BO from a Bear Channel like any other BO Sell for any reason and hold for swing down
98
Bear Channels evolve in TRs or Bull Trend Channels DO NOT last forever
Bear Channels evolve in TRs or Bull Trend Channels DO NOT last forever
99
Sell Zones in Broad Bull Channels = Bears start to sell somewhere in the middle 3rd Sell Zones in TRs = Bears will look to sell further up, maybe in the top 3rd Traders are ALWAYS LOOKING to SELL 50% PBs because they know the market is in a Bear Trend, AIS so there is a 60% chance the market will fall lower
Sell Zones in Broad Bull Channels = Bears start to sell somewhere in the middle 3rd Sell Zones in TRs = Bears will look to sell further up, maybe in the top 3rd Traders are ALWAYS LOOKING to SELL 50% PBs because they know the market is in a Bear Trend, AIS so there is a 60% chance the market will fall lower