Trading MTR Tops Flashcards
When a Trader is looking a HH MTR Top what do they need?
They need some evidence that the Bears are Strong. Tops NEED strong Bear Bars for a successful reversal
Once the market is in AIL chances are the first Reversal down will be Minor
Once the market is in AIL chances are the first Reversal down will be Minor
What is another way to look at ALL DBs?
They are also a High 2 Bull Flag
What do Bears who want a higher probability wait for?
They wait for a Strong Bear BO as they prefer higher probability trades
What usually is the the High 2 Bull Flag in a Bull Trend?
It is often the Final Bull Flag, Bears Expect Bull Trend Resumption to Fail
Bears Expect Bull Trend Resumption to Fail
Bears Expect Bull Trend Resumption to Fail
What do Nested Wedges increase?
Nested Wedges increase the Probability that the market may have a Reversal sideways to down
Higher Probability if Bears Create a Strong Sell Signal Bar
Higher Probability if Bears Create a Strong Sell Signal Bar
Late in the day, day traders will look for reasons to take profits before the end of the day(session)
Late in the day, day traders will look for reasons to take profits before the end of the day(session)
What is a minimum profit target?
Minimum Target is 2x Actual Risk
When anticipating a Reversal down is it better to take the Reversal Trade down if the channel going up is Tight or Broad?
When anticipating the Reversal down it is better to take the trade down after 3 pushes up in a BROAD channel
If Bulls are Too Strong - DO NOT LOOK FOR TOP YET
If Bulls are Too Strong - DO NOT LOOK FOR TOP YET
amarket is CONSTANTLY Trying to reverse, 80% of Reversals will FAIL.
In a Bear Trend when does the premise of the bear trend become no longer valid?
If the market goes above the Last LH, the bear trend is no longer in a Strong Bear Trend
If a Strong Bull Trend Resumes after a PB do I need to start the cycle over as a new Bull Trend?
Yes start the process over again. Need a new TL Break and then a test up
If Strong Bull Resumes - Start over, need new TL Break
If Strong Bull Resumes - Start over, need new TL Break
If there is 3 Pushes up (Wedge) is there a higher probability of a MTR?
Yes there is a higher probability of a reversal with the 3rd push up. This is also a Nested Wedge
Whenever you are in any Trade you must have a plan to take profits
Whenever you are in any Trade you must have a plan to take profits
Is taking Profits at 2x Actual Risk good ?
Yes it is always good but Rarely the Best Profit taking exit price. It is good to take at least partial profits and full profits when completely unsure of an exit
Whenever I have a Wedge Top how many legs down should I be looking down for?
TBTL, at least 2 Legs down. After 1st Down there is often a strong rally to LH. With the failed bulls trend resumption at the wedge top there is often a strong rally the LH MTR (Do not be trapped out, be ready to sell)
If Tight Stop the 1st Signal Often Fails.
If I use a Tight stop and get stopped out but the premise remains I have to look to sell again
If Tight Stop the 1st Signal Often Fails.
If I use a Tight stop and get stopped out but the premise remains I have to look to sell again
Is it common for the market to have strong moves in the wrong direction according to the context?
Yes it is very common. Markets often have strong moves in the wrong direction
If the premise remains and I get stopped out on a Tight Stop Should I sell again on the next sell signal?
Yes, Bears will allow bulls to test up and weak bears with exit above LH, strong bears will sell above LH to make bulls give up
DO NOT HOLD POSITION Forever - Must take profits
*The best exit is the reversal up from the bottom of the chart which is the support(yesterdays low)
*Get out of everything above a good bull bar
DO NOT HOLD POSITION Forever - Must take profits
*The best exit is the reversal up from the bottom of the chart which is the support(yesterdays low)
*Get out of everything above a good bull bar
a Breakeven Stop, is it ok for me to allow it to be hit twice?
No, do not let it get hit twice.
It is very common for the 1st reversal up to go to the entry price and it traps weak bears out of shorts and weak bulls into longs.
If it goes up a 2nd time you have to get out and re-evaluate price action and start the process over again.
When a Reversal Setup is Small is the Reversal more likely to be major or minor?
More likely to only be a minor reversal and a resumption of a trend
When there is not enough selling pressure like we have here is it likely there will be a MTR or a pause after a buy climax before trend resumption up?
This is more likely a pause before trend resumption up due to the lack of selling pressure. It is a Minor Reversal and it usually before a bull(bear) flag before the resumption of a trend
If not Enough Selling Pressure - Bull Trend will not Reverse
If not Enough Selling Pressure - Bull Trend will not Reverse
Gap Up = Brief, Big Bull Trend
Gap Up = Brief, Big Bull Trend
When Selling, it is better if they’re many reasons to Sell
If Strong Bear do not take Profits at Minimum Targets
When Selling, it is better if they’re many reasons to Sell
If Strong Bear do not take Profits at Minimum Targets
As Profits Grow some Bears Scale in and add to their Shorts
As Profits Grow some Bears Scale in and add to their Shorts
When Trading a MTR how much percentage change do I have for a Swing Profit?
Trading a MTR has 40% of a Swing Trade profit
Take Profits(Full or Partial at Support Levels - Like MMs, Previous Days Low/High, Previous Days Close
Its better to exit on a reversal up early which will allow me to get into another trade again just like at the DT Bear flag to the right on this chart.
Take Profits(Full or Partial at Support Levels - Like MMs, Previous Days Low/High, Previous Days Close
Its better to exit on a reversal up early which will allow me to get into another trade again just like at the DT Bear flag to the right on this chart.
A lot of Traders do not worry about picking the right top or bottom, what do they use to negate this type of strategy?
As long as there is Strong Selling(Buying) Pressure they and they do not worry about picking the right top/bottom they use WIDE STOPS and scale in higher
Minimum Targets are good enough but Rarely Best
Minimum Targets are good enough but Rarely Best
IF a Trader enters the market about the absolute worst price but is still in alignment with his premise, if he manages the trade right he can still make money
IF a Trader enters the market about the absolute worst price but is still in alignment with his premise, if he manages the trade right he can still make money
50% of the time if I get a strong BO up or down on the open it is the wrong way and it will reverse
TRUE or FALSE
TRUE
On the Open here there was a BIG UP Parabolic Wedge with previous days price, Bears will take the 40% chance for the swing down trade
Some traders do not like to enter MTR trades when the probability is only 40% they then therefore wait until there is a strong BO which increases the probability they then look to enter.
Some traders do not like to enter MTR trades when the probability is only 40% they then therefore wait until there is a strong BO which increases the probability they then look to enter.
Think of the Minimum 2x Profit taking zone as a minimum wage job. They’re are good and get you paid, but if you had the choice there are times where you can make much more money than a minimum wage job.
Think of the Minimum 2x Profit taking zone as a minimum wage job. They’re are good and get you paid, but if you had the choice there are times where you can make much more money than a minimum wage job.
Is it always good to scale out and take partial profits?
Yes it is always good to scale out and take partial profits when big
Top but in TR - Most BO attempts Fail
Top but in TR - Most BO attempts Fail
Is a TR more likely to continue or BO up or down below the TR?
The TR is more likely to continue as the markets have inertia. Though it is in BO it is more likely to continue
Have a Default Plan to Take Profits
Have a Default Plan to Take Profits
As Long as the marker is making LHs then still in a bear trend. After each new strong bear BO, especially to a new low,
trail stop to above LH(top of bear leg; majorLH)
As Long as the marker is making LHs then still in a bear trend. After each new strong bear BO, especially to a new low,
trail stop to above LH(top of bear leg; majorLH)
What are Trends always trying to do?
Trends are always trying to reverse, rely on stop for proper trade management
What does a successful reversal usually become?
A successful reversal usually becomes a BIG TR
MAG = Moving Average Gap Bar(s)
MAG = Moving Average Gap Bar(s)
Top at End of Session - Needs Immediate Bear Trend
Top at End of Session - Needs Immediate Bear Trend
If I take this short then see a strong reversal signal bar that is in a great area of confluence, what should I do?
Exit the Trade immediately and either go long or wait
Sometimes you take a responsible short but then see a strong reversal bar also with some other areas of confluence indicating the short I took is not a great trade. I have to get out immediately. (see chart below)
Sometimes you take a responsible short but then see a strong reversal bar also with some other areas of confluence indicating the short I took is not a great trade. I have to get out immediately. (see chart below)
