Topic 8: Decision Making Flashcards
problem of decision making
what to choose out of all the options available
importance of decision making
our choices define who we are and how we interact with the world
challenge of decision making
what are our options? what are the outcomes and how likely are they? what do we value?
Expected Value (EV)
- average outcome if a scenario is repeated many time
- calculated using probabilities and values of possible outcomes
how to calculate expected value
multiplying the probability of each outcome by its associated award ((% x $__)+ (% x $___))
advantages for using expected value (3)
- clear prescription for “correct” choices
- leads people, on average, to maximize monetary gains given what they know about the world
- keeps people decisions internally consistent
two problems with using expected value
- difficult to apply for non-monetary decisions
- doesn’t explain actual choices by actual people
Prospect Theory
- people do NOT make decisions based on expected values, probabilities, and absolute outcomes; they make them on subjective utility, decision weights, and relative outcomes
- quantitative decision making model saying that people make decisions based anticipated gains and loses from their current state, and that probabilities are subjective
utility
psychological value; usefulness or desirability of an outcome; total satisfaction
expected utility
the personal value placed on the potential outcome of a decision as weighted by the relative probability soft those outcomes; summarizing the utility under a given circumstance
rationality
consistency in decision making that is based on a conscious evaluation of the circumstance
reference dependence
a core assumption of prospect theory, such that outcomes are evaluated in terms of their relative change (+/-) from the current state
probability weighting
core assumption in prospect theory, such that the subjective probability of an outcome can differ systematically from the objective probability
behavioural economics
new social science discipline that combines elements of traditional economics and psychology to explain real-world decisions, including observed basis in choice
in a coin flip where you either win or lose the money, the expected utility will always be
0
the phenomenon where $0 and $1000 has a greater utility than $100 000 and $101 000
diminishing marginal utility