Thought: Reasoning + Decision making Flashcards
Research in the area of thinking and reasoning is typically grouped under what 4 main headers?
- Judgement
- Decision making
- Problem solving
- Reasoning
What is judgement?
- component of decision making
- concerns calculating the likelihood of certain events
What is decision making?
Selecting one out of a number of potential options
What is problem solving?
The cognitive process that takes us from recognising that there is a problem through to developing a solution
What is reasoning?
- component of problem solving
- concerns determining what conclusions can be drawn given various statements (premises) are assumed to be true
The main part of the brain related to the thinking and reasoning components is?
frontal cortex
How good are at making judgement under uncertainty as shown by Giggerenzer + Hoffrage in 1999?
NOT v good
- particularly bad at estimating the likelihood of things
- better if questions rephrased to emphasise frq vs probability/ fractions/ percentages
What did Khaneman + Tversky say we use when making judgments?
- heuristics
- due to cognitive/ time limitations
- Availability heuristics
- Representativeness
- Anchoring + adjustment
What is the availability heuristic?
- used when estimate frequencies/ probabilities on the basis of ease with which examples come to mind
- bee vs shark
= 300 times more like to be killed by a bee - wine cork vs spider
= 30 times more likely to be killed by cork
Do we always use the availability heuristic?
Nope
- Oppenheimer, 2004
- which name more common: Bush vs Stevenson
= 88% got it right = Stevenson
What is the representativeness heuristic?
- used when events that are representative or typical of a class are assigned a high probability of occurrence
- TOM W
- humanities 3x as more graduates vs comp Sci
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
- used when we begin with an initial estimate of the answer and then attempt to adjust this estimate
- anchoring exerts its effect even when the og value is abviously arbitary
- EG Shopping: £100 jeans (anchoring) now £50!
What did Tverskey + Kahneman in 1974 find about the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
- random number wheel
- Stage 1 = 65
- avg estimate for chance a country selected at random from UN is Africa = 65%
- Stage 2 = 10
- avg estimate = 25%
- *people didn’t account for the change in anchoring
According to the utility theory, how should we make a decision?
- choose the option which has the greatest utility (value to us)
Why did Khaneman + Tversky in 1984 develop the “prospective Theory”?
- to explain why people were making the wrong probability decision
- LOSS AVERSION - focusing more on the loss bit described vs potential gains even though the chances is actually in your favour
- explain framing effect
What is the framing effect?
where people chose the option where loss is not expressed even tho it literally is the same chances
What is the Somatic Marker Hypothesis by Damasio?
Associations between possible routes of actions + the emotional state they resulted in on previous occasions are stored
- these somatic markers reinstated physiologically and used to bias attention towards the most appropriate decision
What is problem solving?
- goal directed
- an immediate solution is not available
- involves conscious cognitive processes
What are the 3 parts of a problem?
- Start state: the problem
- The operators: Things you might do
- The goal state: The solution
If you are clear will all parts of a problem, what is that called?
well-specified
- researchers focus only on well-specified problems
what were earlier approaches to understanding problem solving?
- Behaviourism
- trial and error learning - Gestalt psychology
- insight
- - “aha” xp resulting in a transformation of the problem
- Functional fixedness
- - reducing the item to its designed function when trying to solve a problem
Why do people find the tower of Hanoi task difficult?
- they have to make a move which may seem counterintuitive
What are the 2 different types of reasoning?
- Deductive
- psy mostly study this one
- Inductive
- but most science based on this one
What is the difference between deductive + inductive reasoning?
D: when the conclusion is certain if premises are true
I: when conclusions are likely to be valid, but require further evidence, and can be regarded as hyp
What is a syllogism?
a deductive scheme of a formal argument consisting of a major + minor premise + a conclusion
what are the 2 different conditional reasoning which are valid inferences?
- Modus Ponens
- mode by assertion
- - if it rains then Bob is wet. It rains = bob is wet - Modus Tollens
- mode by denial
- - If it rains then Bob is wet. It doesn’t rain = Bob is not wet
What are the 2 different conditional reasoning which are invalid inferences?
- Affirming the consequent
- It it rains, the bob is wet. Bob is wet = therefore it rains - Denying the antecedent
- If it rains then Bob is wet, it doesn’t rain = Bob is not wet
What should you be cautious of when testing hypothesis?
- confirmation bias
- Watson’s selection task
What was Watson’s selection task?
Rule “if there is a vowel on one side there is an even number on the other side”
E, 7, K, 2
Which cards need to be turned over to confirm rule?
= only turn cards that may provide falsification = E, 7
What is falsification and confirmation?
- Falsification = if a card doesn’t obey the rule, you know the rule is invalid
- Confirmation = if a card does obey the rules, you learn nothing as another card may not = USELESS
