Thinking Flashcards
THINKING
INDICTIVE REASONING
- predicting future via past data/making judgements
- stat generalisations/probabilistic judgements/predictions
- hypothesis testing/rule induction
DEDUCTIVE REASONING
- solving logical/mathematical problems w/right answers
- based on grounds/given facts/generating valid conclusions/evaluating ones validity
PROBLEM SOLVING
- how to get from A-B
- numerous solutions/varying constraint degrees
JUDGEMENT/DECISION MAKING
- choosing among options
CREATIVE THINKING
- daydreaming/imagining
THINKING RESEARCH
- focused primarily where there’s:
- right answer/way of evaluating answer rationality/efficiency of getting to answer
- asks HOW people think (processes/representations)
- human imperfection emphasis (why irrationality/efficiency limits relative to ideal)
- practical focus motivation:
- practical false medical/legal/military importance
- improvements via training/IT support
- attempts changing behaviour
GENERAL DUAL-PROCESS THEORY: SYSTEM 1
- intuitive/automatic/unconscious/quick & dirty/approximate BUT domain-specific
- procedures/schemas/heuristics are:
- adaptive/effective when applied in appropriate domain (otherwise error)
- only approximate w/some built in biases
GENERAL DUAL-PROCESS THEORY: SYSTEM 2
- slow/sequential/effortful BUT…
- logical/rational/conscious reasoning system
- allocates attention to demanding effortful mental activities
- constrained via limited WM capacity/basic cognitive machinery limits
SYSTEMS 1 + 2 COMBINED
- effortful S2 = depleted; self-control/cognitive effort = mental work
- if cognitively busy, S1 = ^ beh influence/^ temptation following (ie. selfish choices/superficial social judgements)
INDUCTIVE REASONING
- illustrate basic cognitive machinery properties
- limit optimal reasoning strategies
- introduce biases:
- difficulty attending relevant info w/salient/irrelevant info available
- limited WM capacity
- LTM retrieval properties
- shifting mental set/perspective difficulties
DEDUCTIVE REASONING
- logical reasoning w/quantifiers (some/not/all) = reasoning via imagining concrete examples (mental models) rather than abstract/general logical operations
- illustrated WM limit impacts
- Wason’s 4 card deductive reasoning test w/if-then propositions = explains performance effects on problem content/characteristic error nature in domain-specific heuristics
PROBABILITY/FREQUENCY JUDGEMENTS
- some frequency facts = told to us/searchable (ie. lifetime morbid schizophrenia risk = 0.7%)
- BUT many based on experience (ie. will it rain today?)
MEMORY AVAILABILITY
TVERSKY & KAHNEMAN (1973)
- availability heuristic = judge as ^ probable/frequent events/objects ^ readily available in memory/environment
- works as generally easier to retrieve event/object memory that’s frequent
- retrievability also affected via: recency/salience/current case similarity
- over-estimate event probability where examples = easily retrievable AKA…
- availability bias = recent/personally salient/presently similar examples
AVAILABILITY BIAS EXAMPLES
- Cape Cod “Jaws” screening = drop in California coast swimming
- seeing accident/police = drivers slow (for a while)
SLOVIC et al (1980) - people overestimate dying of rare BUT dramatic/reported causes (ie. floods/tornadoes/measles)
- underestimate dying of common causes (ie. strokes/cancers/diabetes)
- aka. fear of British kids being run over > ran over
REPRESENTATIVENESS BIAS/BASE RATE NEGLECT
- when evaluating particular cases:
- tend to ignore important info source aka. base knowledge rate = particular event classes overall frequencies (ie. is someone = X features, we think they have X’s standard properties)
- possible best guess basis for category member w/o other info BUT biases prototypical property attribution even w/other info
REPRESENTATIVENESS BIAS EXAMPLE
TVERSKY & KAHNEMAN (1973)
- 100 descriptions (70 = lawyers; 30 = engineers; ie. kids/hobbies/age/motivations); pp asked engineer prob
- > 90% went w/older/conservatism/maths hobbies etc.
REPRESENTATIVENESS BIAS X SEQUENTIAL EXENTS
- head prob x11 in row = same as any as coin = no memory; expecting non-representativeness redressing = gambler’s fallacy
- difficulty ignoring sequence representativeness/unusualness or focusing on known individual event probs
FUNCTIONAL FIXEDNESS
DUNCKER et al (1945)
- classic Gestalt psychologists exps
- pps asked to support lighted candle on vertical wooden wall w/nails/matches etc
- < successful than pps w/same prob BUT pins tipped out of box
CONSERVATISM X CONFIRMATION BIAS IN INDUCTIVE REASONING
- IRL/research we want rules/principles describing experienced instances/testing hypothesised rules VS further observations
WASON (1960) - 2-4-6 seq generated rule; pp tries to guess via new 3n sequences w/positive/negative feedback (ie. fits rule/doesn’t then declares rule hypothesis)
- tend to offer over-specific hypotheses (ie. n+2)/conservatively reluctant to abandon them/seek confirmatory VS disconfirmatory evidence
- scientists equally prone