The History Of Pandemics: The Black Death

Question 1

Main observation in pandemics overtime

2. Disease and illness is the mortal flaw in humans, when did it become a wide scale problem

Answer 1

Gradual reduction in death rates, healthcare improvements etc. (death rates from these pandemics are lower)

2. Trade created opportunities for human and animal interactions to speed up such epidemics. More civilized, more likely pandemics.

Question 2

Pandemics were considered a wrath of god. Examples of pandemics.

2. Describe Justinian pandemic and where it actually originated from (Note importance of religion on pandemics)

Answer 2

Justinian pandemic, Spanish flue, small pox, Black Death etc.

Justinian pandemic prevented emperor Justinian from reuniting West and Eastern roman empires. Accused of being a devil ‘invoking gods punishment’ (wrath of god). Actually originated from China and Northeast India

Question 3

When did quarantine start

Answer 3

14th century

Question 4

What effect did quarantine have in Venice

Answer 4

Ships arriving in Venice from infected ports had to sit at anchor for 40 days

Question 5

Black Death- how and when it originated.

Answer 5

Oct 1347 ships arrived in Sicilian port of Messina, carrying Genoese merchants from Crimean port of Kaffa, carrying the Black Death.

Question 6

How long did it last and where, and % of pop killed

Answer 6

Spread across EU and Middle East killing 30/50% pop for next 5 years.

(Italy was 50%!)

Question 7

Historians view on economics of Black Death (2)

Answer 7

Black Death shaped the fate of premodern economies- such as the great divergence between EU and rest of world. (EU v RoW)

Others see it as the initiator of the ‘little divergence’ thar separated NWEU and SEU on different growth parts by 1500 (NW v SW)

Question 8

Economics of the Black Death across EU (3 notes )

HINT: demographic, government, mortality

2. How do researchers take advantage of the plague knowledge?

Answer 8

Pure demographic shock-physical and natural capital left untouched.

No government aid to mitigate impact

Mortality rates varied between country

2. Recognise the demographic shocks impact e.g on policy etc.

Question 9

Malthusian framework was used to interpret the Black Death.

Answer 9

Population growth limits income per capita growth. (Pop growth faster than food supply growth)

Question 10

Yfyyy

Question 11

Smithian Black Death idea

Answer 11

Positive relationship between population growth and growth. (Unlike Malthus, where population constrains growth!)

So Black Death reduces population, reduces market size, prevent specialisation and trade.

Question 12

Institutional Black Death idea

Answer 12

Dramatic change in relative price of labour to land generated institutional changes that were critical in the rise of Western EU. (Remember in prev topic, everyone rich 1400, then plague hit, real wages stayed high in NW while rest of world went back to low wages

(Remember purely demographic shock, land untouched. So more deaths=less labour, wages increase, high wages spur change!)

Question 13

1. Bubonic plague vs pneumonic plague and their fatality rate

So why such high mortality? (4)

Answer 13

1. Bubonic= swelling around groin, armpit, neck. 70-80% death rate. Pneumonic 90%>
2. Overpopulation in WEU facilitated the spread
   High virulence due to it evolving in isolation for centuries (Higher R RATE)
   EU populations had not been previously exposed so amplyifying hosts (similar to prev)
   Poor public health response

Question 14

Why was virulence higher during early stages?

Who was hardest hit, and mortality rate.

Answer 14

As immunity was in low stage of evolvement (or disease mutated and got weaker e.g Omicron

Italy (50% mortality rate)

Question 15

When did it come to England

Answer 15

June 1348 (remember it arrived in Oct 1347 in Sicily port of Messina)

Question 16

Jebwabs then looked at determinants of mortality

(note: 2 correlations and 4 non-correlations link back to the idea of varied mortality rates being random)

Answer 16

No correlation between mortality and city population size, population density, city transport or city trade potential. (So no obvious explanation for why some countries had higher mortality)

Was higher in early cities and near summer.

Question 17

Impact of BD on wages overtime

Name policy that limited wages from rising too much.

Answer 17

Holistically, wages increased relative to land and capital (complies with Institutional Black Death view)

However in short run markets broke down and economic activity slowed, and England saw wages lower for 2 years by 20%. (Remember low activity-accept lower wages)

When wages came to increase, policy shocks limited wages from increasing (Statute of labourers) , so wages could not rise much in EU, except Italy with no policy where unskilled wages rose 87%

Question 18

What happened to prices

England inflation 1348-1350 (came to England June 1348)

Answer 18

Prices increased dramatically, as money supply increased and supply shock following the population loss.

27% inflation 1348-1350

Question 19

GDP per capita during BD

From a Malthusian perspective

Answer 19

Remember Negative correlation between population growth and income growth.

So the dramatic population fall should have given a rapid increase in income according to his THEORY

Question 20

GDP per capita during BD

From Smithian perspective

Answer 20

Remember positive relationship between population growth and income growth.

So, dramatic fall in population would reduce specialisation and trade (as mentioned) , so decrease incomes

SMITH THOUGHT BD WAS BAD
MALTHUS THOUGHT BD WAS GOOD (AS RELIEVED POPULATION PRESSURES ON ECONOMY)

Question 21

Which country fit the Malthus explanation , and which fit Smith?

Answer 21

Malthus- Italy.

Wages and pc income increased 50 years after plague (population fall was positive for the economy)

Smith- Spain

Wages and pc income fell dramatically, as was a frontier economy (less developed, agricultural)

Question 22

Influence of interest rates on economy at the time

Answer 22

Interest rates long-term downward trend

But there was a brief raise in 2nd half of 14C. People consumed more, increased demand for credit drove rates back up. (Think after quarantine spending becomes big again!)

Question 23

Political impacts of black plague (just covered economic impact)

Answer 23

Warfare rises
Social and economic order
Treatment of minority groups
Government and religious institutions (divide between them, people no longer trust church as pandemic was WRATH OF GOD”. Allowed EU to grow quickly

Question 24

What did Black Death do for inequality?

And fact for wealth share for richest 10%

Answer 24

Reduced inequality. Impacts anyone, rich or poor.

Wealth share of richest 10% was 65-70% early 14C, fell to 50% 1450. (SHOWS BD WAS A GREAT LEVELER, REDUCED INEQUALILTY

Question 25

Key points

Answer 25

BD made labour scarce (wages impact)

BD influenced economies differently (Malthus v Smith)

BD reduced inequality

BD reduced interest rates

BD changed institutions (e.g religious views-WRATH OF GOD)

Question 26

Black Death impact on institutions (2)

Answer 26

Increased FAFM (reduced fertility)

Divorce government from church (as mentioned before in political change)

Question 27

So economics of plague mention
Wages, prices, GDP per capita, interest rates.

And political impacts of plague (religion views vs institutions)

And inequality change