Pre-Modern Growth-When It Happened

Question 1

China stuff (Background stuff of west overtaking china)
Revisionist view (late)- e.g because of war for 20 years while west was developing. Grain wages
Traditionalist view-early (Europe overtook Asia early due to its institutions.) Silver wages, NW Europe already ahead

2 Quantitive approaches to assess opposing views: Wages and income
Wages- what do revisionist look at vs traditionalists
Income-revisionists vs traditionalists

Graph shows India and China lose grain wages. Around 1700 (divergence stage)

Traditionalists-2nd graph shows silver wages even in 1550 was lower than England, TRADITIONALIST WAY EARLY THAN DIVERGENCE TIME

Nominal wage evidence (silver) supports an early great divergence, real grain wages do not support an early great divergence

Real wages-to determine standard of living we compare PPP adjusted wages

2 basket options used: European respectability basket
Bare bones basket

European respectability basket features
Bare bones basket features

What can we do with the real wages-calc welfare ratios

Welfare ratios

Summary of real wage evidence (everyone rich in 1400 until plague where only NW Europe stays rich, ROW returns to low wages from 1500-1700

What was malthus right about regarding pre-modern world

Broader measures reveal,..

Quantitative approach-incomes

Maddison table shows 1500 WE overtakes China

Criticisms of first attempts of national accounting (2)

Recent updates

Little divergences (in Europe +Asia)

Question 2

Why China was richer, more urbanised and scientific than EU, then what happened.

Answer 2

China invented paper, printing, gunpowder and compass

However EU underwent an industrial revolution, overtook and created a gap known as the ‘great divergence’

Question 3

What everyone mostly agrees on regarding China, (Include Japan and Europe).

(When was China considerably behind NWE)
(China’s manufacturing output)
(When did Japan overtake China and Europe.

Answer 3

China was considerably behind NWE by 19C

China produced 1/3 of manufacturing output in 19C

Japan caught up with China and Europe 18C, overtaking EU 20C, reversing the divergence

Question 4

2 views on when the great divergence began

Answer 4

Revisionist-late (19C)
Traditionalist-early (18c)

Question 5

Revisionist view (late)
What 3 main reasons for divergence did they assume?

Answer 5

Transition from wood to coal. (Beat resource constraints)
Colonial policy
Historical shocks occurring from 1850(Taiping & Nian rebellion)

Question 6

What was the wage comparisons based on in the revisionist view?

Answer 6

Revisionists used grain wage comparisons between EU and Asia

Question 7

Traditionalist view (early)

Answer 7

Believe EU>Asia 1800 with a focus on North West EU (NWE)

Question 8

Why do traditionalists think NWE was ahead, what is put emphasis upon in the classical view, and what wage is it based on?

Answer 8

NWE ahead due to its institutions at an early stage.

Emphasis on institutions enabling commercial expansion. (E.g urbanisation, high wages and cheap energy triggering IR by substitution of labour)

Based on silver wage comparisons. Asia had low silver wages but not lower food prices.

Question 9

2 quantitative approaches to assess revisionist and traditionalist views.

Answer 9

Wages and income

Question 10

Grain wages findings

Answer 10

Grain wages (revisionists)
Higher in England than India, but still comparable up until 17C. (Supports idea of Chinese not falling behind because of their agriculture, but their services and manufacturing)

Gap continued to increase overtime with lower wages in India as a proportion of English grain wages. Went from 80% to 33% within 50 years.

Question 11

Income findings

Answer 11

Revisionists- reject use of income data due to reliability

Traditionalists use national accounting, find incomes diverged around 1500

Question 12

What traditionalists argue

Answer 12

It doesn’t account for prices in developed vs less developed countries (LDC), i.e LDC food prices are much cheaper.

So they suggest silver wages because…

Converts wages into currency (gold or silver) and then can be adjusted for prices to see purchasing power for baskets of goods. (WELFARE RATIOS)

Question 13

Silver wage findings

Answer 13

Silver wages early diverged around 15C. India=21% of proportion of English silver wages!

EARLY!

Question 14

Now we have nominal wages (whether it be grain/silver) , we need to look at real wages to determine the standard of living in EU vs China.

How do we do this?

Answer 14

PPP

Question 15

2 types of baskets of goods (Allen)

Answer 15

European respectability basket (ERB)
Bare bones basket (BBB)

Question 16

ERB features (2)

Answer 16

Worth 1940 KCAL
Based on 18C budget and basic diets

Question 17

BBB features (2)

Answer 17

Also worth 1940 KCAL
Based on smaller amount of basic goods (mostly food)

Question 18

Comparison of BBB and ERB welfare ratios around 1750.

Answer 18

Bbb- 1.17
Erb- 1.12

1 means families can just afford it.

Question 19

Real wage findings (from ERB and BBB welfare ratios)

Answer 19

Everyone rich in 1400

Plague hit…

NWE stays rich, rest of world return to low wages 1500-1700.

Question 20

China’s overall path

Answer 20

Rich during song dynasty.

Stagnated in 14C by Malthusian constraints

Productive in agriculture (grain wages show) but fell behind in manufacturing (clothing and textiles) and services (commerce, banking, transport)

Question 21

Second quantitative approach- Incomes findings from Maddison and Broadberry

Answer 21

WEU overtook China in GDP per capita between 1300-1500 (Plague times)

And took off properly in 1800s

Question 22

3 Little divergences occurring within EU

Answer 22

SEU ahead in 1400- fell behind by 1600

Netherlands ahead by 1600-overtook by Britain

Britain ahead around 1700- remained until 20C

Question 23

3 little divergences occurring withi Asia

Answer 23

China ahead in 900- fell behind by 1700

Japan ahead 1700- remained until 20C

India catches up to China around 17C