Models Of Long-run Growth Flashcards
3 key growth models
Classical
Neoclassical
New growth
Classical
Neoclassical
New growth
Malthusian features
Why is population growth then halted?
Why Malthus failed (3)
Smithian model features
Lewis model features
Solow-swan features
Limitations of exogenous growth models (3)
Endogenous tech change
Human and physical capital virtuous circles
Externalities and spillovers
Demographic transition stages (5)
Malthus’s theory relied on… and why it failed.
Becker’s QQ model features
Unified growth theory
Deep determinants of LR growth
Institutional view
Germs theory
Classical growth models (2)
Malthusian
Smithian
Neoclassical growth models (2)
Lewis
Solow (exogenous growth)
New growth models (4)
Endogenous growth models
Demography
New institutional economics and new economic geography.
Malthusian model features (5)
Population grows geometrically, food supply grows arithmetically.
Fixed supply of land
Diminishing marginal returns to labour
Increase in income per capita results in population growth (MORE INCOME MORE KIDS)
Population growth halted by pos and prev checks
Malthus was broadly correct about pre-industrial world. But….
3 reasons why Malthus failed to predict growth
Wrong about population growth eating up income growth (as it doesn’t actually happen, failed to foresee gains in labour productivity)
Wrong about income always leading to more children. (Market for children)
Wrong about shocks to income being intermittent, they are sustained.
What did Malthus fail to foresee (3)
Gains in labour productivity (specialisation+factor accumulation)
Changes in market for children
Failed to foresee tech change
Smithian growth main feature
Specialisation central to growth
Lewis model key features
Economy split into agriculture and industrial
Industrial use MPL, agricultural APL.
Cheap labour moves freely to industrial sector
Industrial earn profits from low cost labour MPL. Profits then reinvested.
Solow-Swan/exogenous growth model features (2)
Capital accumulation accelerates initially causing rapid growth. Growth then slows and becomes steady, at this point, technological change then determines growth (TECH CHANGE EXOGENOUS)
Diminishing marginal returns for FOP causes the slowdown (Malthus was DMR for labour)
Limitations of exogenous growth models (Solow)
Endogenous technological change (R&D)
Human and physical capital virtuous circles
Externalities and spillovers
First limitation of exogenous growth models: Endogenous technological change (r&d) characteristics
Technology is endogenous, determined by monopolistic firms to innovate.
Innovations are non rivalrous requiring monopoly profits
Human and physical capital virtuous circles characteristics. (2nd limitation to exogenous growth models (Solow))
Diminishing returns exist (as mentioned already in Solow model)
Investment in human and physical capital can produce unconstrained growth, remove stability (stability is needed for technological growth)
Externalities and spillovers (3rd limitation of exogenous models) (1)
Technology is a function of capital: Spillovers from capital investment create unconstrained growth (reduce stability required for Solovian (tech) growth)
What do Demography models review and what is it known as?
Whether income actually leads to more children
-the demographic transition
5 stages of demographic transition and what it means for growth.
1.High birth rate, high death rate
2.High birth rate, moderate death rate
3.Moderate birth rate, low death rate
4.Low birth rate, low death rate
5.Very low birth rate, low death rate
(High high to v low v low)
So population stabilises. Growth becomes driven by technology and productivity improvements (which malthus failed to foresee)
Why Malthus’ theory regarding children was wrong
His theory relied on a positive YED for children, but many households have a negative YED.
This helps to explain why long term growth can be sustained. (Income up but less kids actually)
2 models for children
Becker’s Quantity-Quality model (QQ model)
Galor’s Unified Growth Theory
QQ model features
Utility derived from child quantity and quality.
Low YED of child quantity (Quantity-inferior good)
High YED of child quality (Quality-normal good)
Rich people spend more on quality but reduce quantity of children. Explains why population growth doesn’t actually eat up income growth.
Unified growth theory (growth is unified)
Explain why benefits of technological change isn’t offset by population growth (against Malthus)
Technological change is a function of both population and education. (QQ model means as population increases they substitute quantity for quality: parents invest in education)
Education is also a function of technological change too
Institutional view of growth model: 3 theories of New Institutional Economics (NIE)
Tropics theory
Germs theory
Crops theory
Tropics theory (one of 3 NIE views to growth)
Distance to equator plays a key role.
Determined settlement patterns of Europeans.
Other continents didn’t get European institutions as migrants avoided tropics.
Germs theory (Acemoglu)
Germs determine the European settler mortality rate
Good institutions were set up in low mortality rates as a result. (E.g better property rights in low mortality areas)
Bad set up in higher mortality i.e Asia Africa etc.
(SAME AS COLONIAL ORIGINS OF COMPARATIVE DEVELOPMENT, IN ACCIDENTAL APPROACH TO INSTITUTIONS)