Task 6

Question 1

What does conflict intractability mean ?

Answer 1

• conflicts that persist because they seem impossible to solve
• characterised by
  > persistence
  > destructiveness
  > resistance to resolution
• associated with cycles of high and low intensity

Question 2

what is the dynamical systems theory?

Answer 2

• a set of interconnected elements that change and evolve over time
• a change on each element depends on influences from other elements

-> connect to task 9

Question 3

What is an attractor?

Answer 3

a state of changes towards which a dynamical system evolves over time and to which a system returns after it has changed
-> similar to the notion of equilibrium

• channel mental and behavioural experience into a narrow range of coherent states
• attempting to move a system out of its attractor triggers forces that reinstate the system within its attractor
• vary in their relative strength (strong = stable)=
• for lasting change it is necessary to change the attractor states of the system
  = difficult

Question 4

application of the dynamical systems approach to intractable conflicts

Answer 4

• multiple interlinked forces lead to an equilibrium that fixates the respective parties in a state of conflivt
• aim focuses at changing the dynamic of the equilibrium -> to force change in the equilibrium itself

Question 5

What is the basin of attraction ?

Answer 5

(width)
a set of states that are attracted by (will evolve towards) the attractor

the wider the basin of attraction, the:
- greater the flexibility
- greater the range of ideas/ actions that eventually connect to the dominant mental and behaviourl patterns of the parties

Question 6

What is the depth of an attractor?

Answer 6

• provides an indey of how difficult it is to transform the malignant tendencies of an intractable conflict
• in a system with more than one attractor mental, affective, and behavioural states categorically sort themselves
  -> if change occurs it does so, in a non-linear way (= qualitative)

Question 7

What is the catastrophe theory?

Answer 7

describes the behaviour of a system with two fixed-points

1. splitting factor
   to which degree are the issues linked by positive feedback-loops
2. independent variables
   forces promoting the conflict (= conflict of interest, aggravating circumstances)
3. dependent variables
   intensity of conflict

Question 8

catastrophe theory: what happens during high and low levels of the splitting factor?

Answer 8

high levels
- positive linkage among issues
- the intensity of the conflict increases (slowly) until a certain threshold
- after intensity strongly increases
- once conflict has reached a high level of intensity, decreasing the forces does not reduce intensity to the original level
- forces not reduced until another threshold that represents a lower level of forces is reached

low levels
- multidimensionality in issues
- linear relationship between dependent & independent variable

Question 9

catastrophe theory: what is positive feedback ? what is negative feedback?

Answer 9

+: mutual reinforcement and amplification

-: compensatory relations among elements
= decrease activation positive feedback loops
= fewer negative feeback loops leads to system being stuck at attractor of conflict

Question 10

What is reverse engineering?

Answer 10

changing feedback loops from positive to negative

= lowering the level of integration in system

Question 11

What is the Cusp catastrophy?

Answer 11

• a three dimensional model that has two control variables and one behavioural variable
• 4 elementary catastrophes describe all possible cases of discontinuity in a single dependent/ behavioural variable

Question 12

What does the Cusp catastrophe look like?

Answer 12

• horizontal plane: control surface
  > defined by 2 independent variables = control factors + behavioural pattern
  1. splitting factor
  2. normal factor
  > uni-modality
  > region of equilibrium
• vertical dimension: behaviour dimension
• top (fold curve): behaviour surface
  > has upper and lower surface)
• cusp shaped area (shadow):
  > burfication set
  > its border is the threshold of catastrophic jump

Question 13

How do you make predictions from the cusp catastrophe model?

Answer 13

• find the point on the control surface that is defined by the level of interest in the control dimension
• level of the behaviour surface directly above this point is the predicted behaviour
• behavioural prediction = bimodality
• bimodal distributions are predicted for each point in the bifurcation set
  ! control surface = unimodal
• the level on the bifurcation set (upper/lower level) depends on the individual´s history
  > entering on higher level = stay on higher level (+ vice versa)
  > equilibrium condition determined by the point at which the bifurcation set is entered
• does not cause catastrophic changes in behaviour:
  > movement inside the bifurcation set
  > movement in and out of the bifurcation set at the same location

Question 14

what does bimodality mean ?

Answer 14

for the same combination of control parameters, two modes of behavior are expected