Superpowers Flashcards
Definion of a superpower
A superpower is a country with the ability to project its dominating power and influence anywhere in the world.
E.g. USA
Definition of an emerging power
Emerging superpowers are countries with a large role in one of more superpower characteristics, and with growing influence.
E.g. China, Brazil, India, Russia
Definition of a regional power
Regional powers can project dominating power and influence over other countries within the continent or region.
E.g. UK, Germany, France in Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East
South Africa and Nigeria in Africa
Characteristics of a superpower
There are 6 superpower characteristics! (Economic, Political, Military, Cultural, Demographic, Natural Resources), used to define which type of power a country is.
Economic as a characteristic of a superpower
1) Economic
Large GDP, high % of international trade, currency used as reserve currency.
A large GDP creates influence as a potential market and as the home of TNCs which create FDI.
Underpins the other 5 characteristics
The USA has the world’s largest total GDP - $18.5 trillion
Political as a characteristic of a superpower
The ability to influence the policies of other countries through the dominance of negotiations. (Both bilaterally and through international organisations.)
Many international organisations do not equally weight members.
Voting power may be determined by economic contribution, historical role in founding of organisation (UN), population etc…
Often due to dominance in other characteristics.
E.g. large economy gives it power in trade talks, military power can make countries a threat - giving them political power
Military strength as a characteristic of a superpower
Military power with a global reach means they can be used to achieve geopolitical goals
Global influence through blue water (ocean going) navy and drone, missile and satellite technology
Indicators of power: army size, defence spending, nuclear weapons, inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), size of blue water navy, being a major arms exporter, presence on/leading international military organisations.
Dependent on demographic power: the number of military personnel that can be deployed
Dependent on economic power: budget determines investment in military technology, which increases power
Russia has the most active nuclear warheads (1790)
The USA is in second place with 1750
Cultural as a characteristics of a superpower
The ability to influence the beliefs, values, ideology and way of life in other countries.
Achieved through:
the dominance of media (films, radio, television, internet, education)
TNCs or migrants introducing cultural products (food, clothing, music, religion)
imposition of viewpoint in international agreements
Indicators: global spread of music, fashion, food, language, religion
The USA has the highest percentage of the world’s 20 largest TNCs - 27%.
Demographic as a characteristic of a superpower
A large population -> a large diaspora and workers at TNCs
Assists economic power through a large market and economies of scale (so more profit).
Means army can be larger.
China has the largest population - 1382 million
Resource as a characteristic of a supowerpowr
Control of access to physical resources: energy, minerals
Provides inputs for economic growth
Means they can be exported at a high price -> economic power
e.g. OPEC and oil
May be internally located, or accessed through reliable source countries through transport pathways.
Essential for military power
Hard power definition
Hard power: using military and economic influence (trade deals, sanctions) to force a country to act in a particular way.
Soft Power Definition
Soft power: more subtle persuasion of countries to act in a particular way, on the basis that the persuader is respected and appealing. Includes political persuasion (diplomacy) and cultural influence.
International rankings of soft power, such as by Monocle magazine, usually place the USA, UK, France and Germany top of the annual rankings. (Western liberal democracies)
What form of power is most, well, powerful
Which is most effective?
Hard power (threats of force or military action) can get results, but it is expensive and risky.
Others may view military action as unnecessary or illegal, so the aggressor may lose allies and moral authority (e.g. Russia’s 2014 invasion of the Crimea)
Soft power relies on a country having respected culture, values and politics, which may be enough to persuade some countries but not others.
Soft power, applied well, is low cost and, because it is about creating alliances and friendly relations, may spread to other countries.
Examples of hard power
Example of hard power - USA:
1991: organised and led the coalition to expel Iraqi forces that had invaded Kuwait in the First Gulf War
2003: invaded Iraq in the Second Gulf War when economic sanctions (softer power) failed to persuade President Saddam Hussein to change policy.
Examples of soft power
Example of soft power - UK:
Described by foreign secretary Douglas Hurd in the 1980s as ‘punching above her weight’D
5th largest economy - attractive market and source of TNC FDI.
Diplomacy - one of the largest networks of diplomats and embassies in the world.
According to Henry Kissinger in the 1970s, the UK benefits from its moral authority.
BBC World Service - more neutral and reliable than many government broadcasters. Worldwide news and programmes.
Films (Pride and Prejudice), television (Downton Abbey) and literature (Harry Potter)
City of London (and New York) dominate international finance, banking and law - setting standards and values
Uni-polar, Bi-polar and Multipolar superpowers
uni-polar: one globally dominant superpower, or hyperpower
one hegemon, unchallenged by other countries (in cultural terms, as well as economic, political and military)
bi-polar: two opposing superpowers, with different ideologies, but broadly equal in status
multi-polar: many broadly equal powers, with regional influence but less global influence
Which pattern of power is most stable
Which pattern of power is more stable, and which brings higher risk?
A uni-polar world should be stable
there is only one ‘top dog’, but the costs of being a hegemon are high and hard to sustain
the USA has been called ‘the world’s policeman’, meaning it is involved in numerous trouble spots all at the same time - increases stability? helps make world safer?
Bi-polar situations, such as the Cold War, involve a tense stand-off between opposing powers and might be described as high risk ‘scary but stable’.
During the Cold War, there were occasions where the USA and USSR almost ended up in a ‘hot’ war
Between the First and Second World Wars, the world was multi-polar with no dominant power. It could be argued that this created a power vacuum allowing the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, with no country prepared to stop them
This has implications for the future. After 2030 the world could be bi-polar (USA and China) or it might be more multi-polar (USA, China, India, EU), having a major impact on geopolitical stability.
Changing importance of forms of power
Which pattern of power is more stable, and which brings higher risk?
A uni-polar world should be stable
there is only one ‘top dog’, but the costs of being a hegemon are high and hard to sustain
the USA has been called ‘the world’s policeman’, meaning it is involved in numerous trouble spots all at the same time - increases stability? helps make world safer?
Bi-polar situations, such as the Cold War, involve a tense stand-off between opposing powers and might be described as high risk ‘scary but stable’.
During the Cold War, there were occasions where the USA and USSR almost ended up in a ‘hot’ war
Between the First and Second World Wars, the world was multi-polar with no dominant power. It could be argued that this created a power vacuum allowing the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, with no country prepared to stop them
This has implications for the future. After 2030 the world could be bi-polar (USA and China) or it might be more multi-polar (USA, China, India, EU), having a major impact on geopolitical stability.
Contemporary power dynamic
Influence of the Heartland Theory:
It persuades the USA, UK, and other European countries that Russia needed to be ‘contained’, i.e. prevented from spreading outward by taking over new areas close by.
It reinforced the idea that control of physical resources (land, mineral wealth) was important.
In the 21st century, these ideas seem antiquated:
Modern military technology (inter-continental ballistic missiles, drones, aircraft carriers, strike aircraft) can hit deep inside another country’s territory - size is no longer a protection.
Physical resources are traded internationally; there is much less need to have them domestically.
War and conflict are generally seen as abnormal, whereas in the past they were accepted ways of gaining power.
Soft power has become more common as a way of gaining influence and maintaining power, by creating economic and political alliances. However, hard power still exists:
In 1991 and 2003, the USA invaded Iraq, partly to secure oil supplies
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine/Crimea in 2014, claiming to be protecting ethnic Russians.
Imperial Era
The maintenance of power during the imperial period by direct colonial control. (British empire, multipolar world 1919-1939)
The period from 1500 to 1950 was an imperial era (denominated by empires). European powers (Spain, Portugal, Britain, France and Germany) conquered land in the Americas, Africa and Asia and built empires that directly controlled territories. The development of empires relied on:
powerful navies to transport soldiers and equipment to areas of potential conquest, and then protect sea-routes and coastlines from enemies
large and advanced armed forces to conquer territory and then control it
businesses, often government owned, to exploit resources in the conquered territories by mining (gold, tin) and plantation farming (rubber, tea, coffee)
a fleet of merchant ships, protected by a navy, to transport goods back to the home country
people from the home country to act as the government and civil service to run the colonies
Empires were maintained directly by force. Attempts by the conquered people to rebel against the colonial power were brutally suppressed. Britain had the largest empire, reaching its peak in 1920 when it controlled 24% of land globally.
Empires ended in the period 1950-70. European countries gave independence to their colonies, because the costs of maintaining them was too high as Europe rebuilt after WW2. Since 1950, China has effectively acted as a colonial ruler of Tibet, brutally suppressing dissent during rebellions by Tibetans in 1959 and 2008.
Indirect control through political, military, economic and cultural facroes
Political
Dominance in international decision making within the United Nations, G7, World Trade Organisation and others
Some countries have disproportionate influence
Military
The threat of large, powerful armed forces with global reach
Selective arms trading that provides weapons to key allies, but not enemies
Economic
The use of trade deals and trade blocs to create economic alliances that create interdependence between like-minded countries
Cultural
The use of global media (TV, film, music), arts, culture, and global TNC brands to spread the ideology (beliefs, ideas and values - e.g. democracy, capitalism and freedom) and values of a country through consumer culture.
Indirect power
Indirect power became important during the Cold War era 1945-1990. The USA and USSR sought allies among other countries as part of the USA-led ‘West’ or USSR-led ‘East’. This included:
military alliances, e.g. USA (NATO) and the USSR (Warsaw Pact)
foreign aid as a way to ‘buy’ support from developing and emerging nations
support for corrupt and undemocratic regimes in the developing world, in return for their support for the superpower
Some geographers have argued that Western nations continue to control their ex-colonies in the developing world through an indirect mechanism called neo-colonialism, which includes:
a debt-aid relationship, developing countries owe money for past loans to developed countries, but their poverty means they also depend on the hand-outs of foreign aid
poor terms of trade: developing countries export low value commodities (tea, copper, cocoa) but have to import expensive manufactured goods from developed countries
the loss of their brightest and most productive people, who tend to migrate to developed countries if they can
The rise of China as an emerging power since 2000 has led to it being accused of neo-colonial actions in Africa. In addition, it is challenging the hegemony of the USA and former colonial powers (France and Britain) there.
context of china as a rising and competing superpower to use
it has huge human resources
its economy has grown massively since 1990, and shows few signs of slowing down
it increasingly engages with other parts of the world, notably by investing in Africa in terms of mineral resources
it has military ambitions to build a blue water navy, operating beyond its coast
blue water navy = operates in the open ocean
green water navy = operates close to the coast
Context of BRIC countries
Other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and G20 (international forum for the world’s 20 largest economies) countries could become significantly more powerful in the future. Europe’s and the USA’s share of world GDP has been in decline since about 1945 and 1990 respectively (yet are both still around 20%). Having declined up to 1960, China and India are now becoming increasingly significant to the global economy, and that is likely to continue.
The BRIC countries account for 42% of global carbon dioxide emissions. This means a global environment governance agreement to tackle climate change has to involve these countries. At the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 the BRIC countries were involved in the agreement in a way they had not been when the 1997 Kyoto Protocol was signed, which only involved developed countries.
impending implications of emerging powers
It is likely that emerging powers in the near future will:
demand more say in global organisations like the United Nations: there is a case for India having a permanent seat on the UN Security Council
have more influence over global financial decision-making at the World Bank, IMF and WTO.
play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response, as their military capacity grows
Stregths and weaknesses of India
7th largest GDP
Strengths
Youthful population
demographic dividend - will become a large working-age population in the future
Global leader in IT technology
Weaknesses
Widespread poverty
Poor energy and transport infrastructure
Lack of water resources
Strengths and weaknesses of Brazil
Brazil
9th largest GDP
Strengths
Huge natural resources and farming potential
Modern economic structure
Weaknesses
Economy has boom and bust cycles
Limited military strength
Strengths and weaknesses of Russia
Russia
12th largest GDP
Strengths
Very powerful, nuclear armed military
Large oil and gas reserves
Weaknesses
Difficult relations with the rest of the world
Ageing population
Strengths and weaknesses of Nigeria
Nigeria
26th largest GDP
Strengths
Untapped natural resources
Vast population and growth potential
Weaknesses
Deep seated poverty
Internal conflict
Superpower trends
Countries with ageing, or even declining populations (Russia, Japan, some EU countries and even China) face major problems in the future in paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the same time as their workforce shrinks
Shortages of physical resources could derail the ambitions of some countries (India) whereas growing pollution could stall the growth of others (China)
Countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria).
3 theories of global development
Modernisation
Dependancy
World systems theory
Modernisation theory
By W. W. Rostow
Also known as the ‘Take-Off model’
Suggests that economic development only begins when certain pre-conditions are met: modern infrastructure, education, banking and effective government
Dependacy theory
By A.G. Frank
Argues that a relationship between developed and developing countries is one of dependency
This prevents developing countries from making economic progress
Neo-colonial mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed world are responsible
World systems theory
By Immanuel Wallerstein
Does not see the world in Frank’s developed versus developing world terms, but rather as a global system of core, semi-periphery and periphery nations. The semi-periphery countries are the emerging economies, some of which are economic superpowers.
World Systems Theory is a good fit for the current pattern of developed, emerging and developing countries. Modernisation theory is useful in explaining how some countries manage to become wealthy. None of the theories are especially good at identifying why some countries, but not others, become superpowers.
IGO
Superpowers influence the global economy (promoting free trade and capitalism) through a variety of IGOs (World Bank, IMF, WTO, World Economic Forum (WEF))
Bretton woods organisations
World Bank
IMF
WTO
World bank
1944
Lends money to developing and emerging economies to promote economic development
This is done within a Western capitalist model
The money originates from developed economies
IMF
1945
Promotes global economic stability
Aids economies in opening up to world trade and investment
Comes to the aid of countries in economic difficulty
WTO
1995 (replaced GATT Rounds from 1948)
Works to remove barriers to international trade
Has negotiated a sequence of global free trade agreements that have gradually removed trade taxes and quotas
WEF (world economic forum)
1971
A Swiss non-profit organisation
It acts as a forum for discussion between business, politicians and IGOs
It is pro-free trade and pro-TNCs
Westernisation
TNC brands are key drivers of cultural globalisation and the spread of Westernisation. Westernisation is the adoption of western culture and values. (soft power)
Forms which westernisation can take
ndividual freedom and rights, including gender equality and religious freedom
the idea that accumulating wealth, owning property and consuming goods and services indicate a successful life
the importance of leisure activities such as holidays, watching TV and films
the importance of having the latest technology, and that idea that technology can solve problems
living in a small family unit, rather than an extended family
Westernisation, in Asia and South America, is most obvious in areas such as dress, food (fast-food such as McDonald’s and KFC) and the spread of American English as a ‘global language’
the importance of Westernisation stems from the fact that increasingly people in Asia and South America ‘think and act like we do’. The desire to have access to the world’s most famous global brands is a powerful driving force behind this process.
All of the top ten global brands in 2016 originate from the USA: Google, Apple, Microsoft, AT&T, Facebook, Visa, Amazon, Verizon, McDonald’s and IBM.
Superpowers as a role playing in global action
Superpowers and emerging powers have the ability to act globally. This is especially true of the USA, slightly less so for the EU, and much less true for the BRICs. A key characteristic of a true superpower is that weaker countries look to it to act in times of crisis. This includes:
intervening in war and conflict, especially when an internal conflict threatens to spill-out into other countries
taking action in terms of crisis response, e.g. natural disaster, famine or a serious disease outbreak
responding to terrorism, such as the threat from Al-Qaeda or ISIS
responding to longer-term threats, such as climate-change-induced global warming
Do all superpowers aknolege their role in the maintenance of the world order
For the USA, and to a lesser extent the EU, this expectation is a heavy responsibility and also a huge economic cost.
It is often expected to act as a ‘global policeman’ (1942, President Roosevelt), sorting out problems in any place. Many Americans do not accept this role. China is very reluctant to act in this way, despite its rising power. h y
Example of the USA being a global aid provider
2010 Haiti Earthquake
The USA used its vast naval and air force assets to respond to the disaster with medical, food and infrastructure aid
2014 Ebola epidemic
The USA, UK and France led the crisis response in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, deploying military and medical assets
Military alliances
The USA has a broad global military alliance, which its emerging power challengers (China, India, Russia) cannot match. Military alliances are treaties that usually involve mutual defence. These alliances allow the USA to position powerful air and naval assets around the world.
Examples:
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) - Canada, European countries, Turkey
14 air force bases
USA’s 6th fleet is located in Italy
Strategic Co-operation agreement with Israel
USA’s 5th fleet is located in Bahrain
ANZUS - with Australia and New Zealand
Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines
Taiwan relations act (with Taiwan)
Military alliance with South Korea
2 air force bases
Security alliance with Japan
3 air force bases
USA’s 7th fleet located in Japan
The USA and its military allies spent $966 billion on their militaries in 2015, or 58% of global military spending.
Importances of alliances
Even hyperpowers such as the USA, or Britain in the Imperial era, seek allies. Having like-minded friends adds to a superpower’s strength.
Allies can be ‘eyes and ears’ in distant parts of the world, spotting trouble as it develops
Allies increase the network of military assets spread around the world
Political and economic allies can form a large bloc, to force their agenda on the wider world.
UN Security Council
The most powerful decision-making body within the UN is the Security Council. It makes decisions on issues such as:
taking military action against countries seen to be breaking international law or persecuting people
applying economic or diplomatic sanctions to countries, to try to force them to change their behaviour
The Security Council’s five permanent members tend to act as two blocs, which gives the ‘Western’ powers a 3:2 advantage. The USA, France and the UK (all NATO members) tend to vote together. Russia and China often vote the same way, or abstain from some votes.
Why is the UN important
The International Court of Justice upholds international law; its legal framework is a Western one, reflecting the fact than the UN was set up by the USA and European powers
Peacekeeping missions can be set up by the UN, sourcing armed forces from member states. These have had some success at ending or preventing conflict, e.g. the Bosnian conflict in the 1990s
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its scientific advisory panel the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change are important in informing the debate on global warming, and thus international agreements such as the COP21 agreement in Paris in 2015 where many countries pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
the IPCC is a group of scientists that reports on global warming roughly once every five years.
Global environmental governance
Global environmental governance is disproportionately influenced by superpowers. This is most obvious when it comes to global warming.
Any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until big emitters agree, because they account for such a large percentage of global emissions.
The USA and China have been reluctant to set emissions reduction targets, whereas the EU has often led in this regard.
EU and US emissions are static or falling (because of greater efficiency and some green policies) but in China emissions are still rising
Key questions for the next 20 years:
What will the food, water, energy, mineral and other resource demands of emerging India, Bracil and China be as those countries become wealthier?
Can the world’s resource base provide for those emerging powers, if people attain a similar level of wealth to the EU and USA today?
global carbon dioxide emissions in 2015
Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2015:
29% China
14% USA
10% EU
7% India
5% Russia
35% Rest of the world
Pending changes in consumption patterns
Over the next 30 or 40 years resource demand in the USA and EU is likely to remain static. Most people are already wealthy and their demand for additional resources will be met by increasingly efficient use of existing resources.
In emerging powers, this is not the case. Pressure on resources has a number of causes:
increasing population, especially in India, Indonesia and Brazil
increasing wealth: the global middle class (people earning $10-100 per day) is expected to increase from 2 billion in 2012 to 5 billion by 2030.
What will need demand to increase
These people will want more ‘stuff’, which increases demand for:
Rare earths - 80-90% of global rare earth production is in China. This raises the possibility of shortages due to resource nationalism.
rare earth metals (e.g. Scandium, Yttrium and Terbium) are widely used in electronic, medical and laser devices.
Food - as China and India develop there will be increased demand for stable grains (wheat, rice). Demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to ‘Western’ diets.
Oil - in 2015 the USA used 19 million barrels of oil per day, China 12 million and India 4 million. Indian and Chinese demand could reach American levels.
Water - In the USA and EU washing machines, dishwashers, a daily bath/shower and swimming pools are common. This is not true of emerging countries, but vast additional water supplies will be needed if it becomes true.
Environmental impact of a rise in middle class consumption
Increased demand is likely to have two consequences:
The price of key resources rises as higher demand puts pressure on supply
The availability of resources, especially non-renewable ones, falls as some supplies are used up.
In addition, the rise of middle-class consumption will affect the physical environment:
more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw materials
increased carbon emissions from higher energy consumption and more factories
problems disposing of consumer waste in landfill sites and incinerators
more use of water, and therefore more polluted waste water
Need for commodities and tensions
Superpowers and emerging powers need physical resources, especially fossil fuels, minerals and ores. Some have these domestically but in many cases they must be obtained through international trade. This can mean:
buying resources at high prices, e.g. in 2008 crude oil was priced at $140 per barrel
trading with unfriendly regimes, or ones that are politically unstable (e.g. Iranian and Iraqi oil)
during conflict, trade routes, and therefore supply, is blocked
These factors increase the advantage of claiming new territory and its resources. In some cases, tensions can arise as countries attempt to acquire natural resources, but their ownership is disputed. This can be done in several ways:
invasion and conquest of another country’s territory, which is rare
claiming offshore, undersea resources by extending a country’s EEZ, which is more common
the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extends 20 nautical miles offshore from a country’s coast, and includes all resources in and under the sea. In some circumstances its size can be extended.
Russia in Crimea
Russian invaded and took Crimea (part of Ukraine) by force in 2014
A key reason for doing this was to gain total control of the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea - home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
The base was leased to Russia in 1997, but not owned by Russia
Russia feared that if Ukraine joined the EU and/or NATO this strategic base could be lost
Fearing the loss of land and a port, both physical resources, Russia acted
Arctic Oil and Gas
Huge oil and gas reserves may exist under the Arctic Ocean
This area is beyond the EEZ of Canada, the USA, Russia and Denmark
All of these countries have claimed EEZ extensions, which are disputed by others, and lodged these with the UN (which ultimately rules on them)
Since 2007, military patrols and activity have increased in the Arctic, as each country shows how interested it is in the area, and willing to defend its claims.
Artic Oil
Any attempt to drill for oil and gas in the Arctic could become a source of diplomatic if not actual conflict. In addition, the risks of environmental disaster from oil spills is high in one of the few remaining pristine ecosystems on the planet also with a large indigenous population (Inuit)
Currently, no natural resources are exploited in Antarctica, and few in the Arctic, but in the future this may change if some countries believe they should be exploited. The attitudes of countries may change if resources are depleted elsewhere, leaving only these protected places as sources of minerals and fossil fuels.
Intelectual property
Human resources are a key element of power. This is especially the case with regard to new inventions and discoveries such as:
new military technology, used for defence or attack
inventions and new products that could bring riches
Most inventions are made by government organisations or TNCs through R&D (research and development).
To prevent new inventions being copied illegally, they are protected by an international system of Intellectual Property (IP). This includes Trademark, copyright and patent protection (for physical or system inventions) and a system of royalty payments for the rights to use IP developed by someone else. Without this:
TNCs would be reluctant to invest in R&D, because they would gain little profit from inventions that were immediately copied
countries would be reluctant to trade, because their IP would fall into the hands of others who would steal it
IP has economic value. Royalty fees alone amount to $150-200 billion annually, with 80% going to the USA, Japan and western Europe. Intellectual property theft, counterfeiting and industrial espionage can strain trade relationships, causing problems. It has been estimated that counterfeit goods sales account for 5-8% of China’s GDP. Chinese car companies have copied car designs from BMW and Mercedes, and iPhones are widely counterfeited.
TNCs may limit investment in China if they fear IP theft
Total losses widewide are probably $400-600 billion annually
Trade deals with countries such as China are made much harder by its failure to tackle IP theft
Counterfeit goods are often unsafe, putting consumers at risk.
Eastern Europe as a sphere of inflence
Eastern European countries joining the EU, and moves by Georgia and Ukraine to do so, angered Russia, leading to the Russian invasions of parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, as well as a build up of NATO armed forces in the Baltic States,
Middle East and Central Asia as a sphere of inflence
Since 2011, Russia has been an active ally of Syria, helping the Syrian government fight rebel forces and ISIS. Russia supports Iran, an enemy of US allies Israel and Saudi Arabia. Russia’s increasing involvement in the Middle East makes an already difficult region even more complex.
South China Sea as a sphere of influence
Numerous disputed islands, claimed by China and US allies the Philippines and Taiwan. China has aggressively pursued a policy of island settlement and artificial island building - then adding military facilities.
The South China Sea is a very tense region. China’s ‘Nine-Dash Line’ and ‘First and Second Island Chain’ policies force it to try and control a large area of ocean south and east of China. The USA has considered this a sphere of influence since the Second World War.
Central America as a sphere of inflecne
China has shown increasing interest in funding alternative routes to the Panama Canal between the Atlantic and Pacific. This is an area of traditional US hegemony.
The situations in Ukraine, Georgia and Syria have created refugee crises - in Syria on a huge scale from 2011 to 2017. This shows there are implications for people of contested spheres.
China in Africa
ZAMBIA
Low-income countries could have new relationships with emerging powers. An example is China’s interest in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s least developed region. China’s interest is based on exploiting Africa’s abundant and undeveloped physical resources:
copper ore in Zambia
crude oil in Angola, Sudan and Chad
coltan (the ore of niobium and tantalum used in mobile phones) from the DRC
Opportunities
China-Africa relations are based on trade, not ex-colonial ties
Chinese mines and factories bring jobs and raise incomes and GDP
In order to develop mining and factory investment, China has invested huge sums in HEP, railways, ports and roads - which can be used more widely
China-Africa trade was worth $200 billion in 2016, a huge sum for a developing region
Challenges
Countries without natural resources China wants are left out
Many jobs area actually done by Chinese migrant labour which numbers over 1 million workers
Mining and oil exploitation risks causing deforestation, oil spills and water pollution
Cheap Chinese imported goods have undercut some local African producers, especially of textiles
Africa’s economic model is still cheap raw material exports, and expensive manufactured exports
China increasingly depends on Africa’s raw materials and Africa relies on investment from China. This interdependence may benefit both, but a slow-down in China’s economy would have the same effect on Africa’s.
If developing countries align themselves economically and politically with emerging countries such as India, China and Russia this could have significant impacts on world trade patterns and geopolitical alliances. So far, only China has really achieved this in Africa.
Asian Tensions
India and China represent 36% of the world’s population, 18% of global GDP and 32% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Their rising economic importance to the world cannot be denied. Both are members of the G20, which is an increasingly important global grouping. The older G8 set up in 1975 consists of indebted developed countries, whereas the G20 includes cash-rich investor countries.
Relations between China and India are interesting:
They are ideological rivals: India is the world’s largest democracy, whereas China is a communist dictatorship
They share a border, but parts are disputed (Arunachal Pradesh, Tawang, Aksai Chin) which led to conflict in 1962, 1967 and 1987.
China has created a strong economic alliance with Pakistan focused on the $54 billion Chinese investment in CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), but Pakistan and India have tense, often antagonistic relations.
China has the upper-hand in terms of economics, as India has a large trade deficit (imports more than exports) with China.
Increasingly, India and China are rivals in outer space. Both have advanced space programmes. The rocket technology from this also helps develop their nuclear missile technology. Both have an aircraft carrier, and both are building more - demonstrating they have regional (if not global) naval ambitions.
Middle Eastern tensions
The world economy runs on crude oil. The Middle East contains 60%of proven oil reserves, so no superpower or emerging power can ignore it.
The Middle East is an area of tension and conflict for a number of reasons:
Most Muslim countries are hostile to the Jewish state of Israel: Iran has vowed to destroy it, but the USA is a key ally of Israel
Religious differences between Sunni (Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey) and Shia (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon) branches of Islam are a source of conflict between and within countries.
Since 2011, the rise of the extremist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has created wars, terrorism and a refugee crisis.
The Kurdish people (in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey) are demanding their own state.
Since 2015 a civil war has raged in Yemen, which has involved Saudi Arabia directly and the USA indirectly
The complex web of alliances and geopolitical relations within Middle Eastern countries is a major ongoing challenge to stability. Russia, and to a lesser extent, China, tend to support Iran within the region. The USA and EU lean towards Saudi Arabia. The Saudis and Iranians both see themselves as regional leaders, but relations between them are poor.
Globally, there are three contrasting cultural ideologies. Western capitalism (EU, North America, South America), the Muslim world (Middle East, North Africa) and Asian. Attitudes to religion, trade, social relations, women, sexuality and the environment differ in all three. This means that geopolitical relationships between them are not always easy.
Economic challenges including the Global Financial Crisis
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8 was a stock-market crash and a series of bank failures that in turn led to a global recession, business closures and rising unemployment. Since then, the USA and EU have slowly rebuilt their damaged economies. The crisis caused government debt levels to increase sharply as money was borrowed to:
re-finance banks and other businesses facing collapse
pay social service costs, such as unemployment benefits
pay for new infrastructure (roads, bridges) in an effort to stimulate economic growth
By 2016 debt levels had reached 90% of annual GDP in the UK, 75% in the USA and 214% in Japan. High debt levels, in the long term, may slow down future economic growth. Debt levels are pushed up by high social costs:
High debt levels, economic restructuring and high social costs represent an opportunity for India and China. The two emerging powers have a chance to pull level with the USA and EU because of the ongoing and long-term nature of these economic and social problems.
Structural U/P
Loss of manufacturing jobs to emerging economies through globalisation
This has led to a pool of middle-aged, low-skilled, male workers without jobs
Many rely on social security payments from the government
Economic restructuring
Economic restructuring
The global shift to Asia has created deindustrialisation in the EU and USA
There are high costs linked to regenerating former industrial areas
In addition, the workforce needs retraining and re-skilling in tertiary sector jobs
Future social challenges from age
Rising life expectancy and low fertility rates mean an ageing population
Care home, nursing care and pension costs are all rising
This has to be paid for by a shrinking working-age population in many EU countries
US economic costs of being a superpower
The USA spends 3.3% of its GDP on defence ($596 billion in 2015) (4th largest in terms of budget), i.e. hard power. The UK spends 0.7% of its GDP on development assistance (foreign aid), seeing this as a key part of its soft power.
Faced with rising healthcare and ageing costs, it is easy to question this spending on military power and space exploration.
Impacts of 2016 budget in the US
This shows that:
defence takes up a very large slice, about 15% of all spending
intelligence services alone cost $80 billion annually
spending by NASA on space exploration totalled $18.5 billion in 2016
each of the USA’s ten planned Gerald R Ford-class aircraft carriers will cost $10.4 billion
simply to test-fire an unarmed Tomahawk cruise missile costs $1.5 million
Other costs of being a superpower
The UK, France and USA also spend large sums of money on nuclear missile technology and civilian nuclear power research. Both of these can be questioned.
In order to be a truly global superpower, the USA must spend these sums of money. However, the money could be spend in other ways:
about 13% of Americans live in poverty (living on less than $12,000 per year)
about 60,000 road and rail bridged in the USA need to be repaired
the over 65s in the USA made up 15% of the population in 2016, this will rise to 20% by 2030
In the EU, the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-8 have meant government budget cut-backs, especially to defence. Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Islamic State in the Middle East and China’s increasing militarisation have not so far been met with increased EU or US military spending.
Why are Transnational Corporations (TNCs) dominant in the global economy?
Control vast supply chains & global markets.
Influence governments through investment & lobbying.
Drive innovation & technological advancement.
Exploit lower production costs via outsourcing & offshoring.
Account for a significant share of global trade & employment.
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How do TNCs contribute to economic & cultural globalization?
Economic: Spread of capitalist economies, global trade integration.
Cultural: Westernization through brands (McDonald’s, Netflix, Nike).
Technology: Digital networks & AI development boost global interconnectivity.
Trade Patterns: Shift manufacturing to developing nations (China, Vietnam).
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How do the USA, EU, and Russia differ in climate action?
USA: Varies by leadership (Paris Agreement exit under Trump, rejoin under Biden).
EU: Most proactive, strict emissions targets & renewable investments.
Russia: Least willing, dependent on fossil fuel exports, slow to act.
How does superpower consumption harm the environment?
Deforestation for agriculture (Amazon rainforest clearance).
Water shortages from overuse (India, California).
Climate change acceleration due to fossil fuel dependency.
🌍 Solution? Green technologies & sustainable resource use are crucial.
: How does growing middle-class consumption in superpowers affect resources?
Increased demand for food, water, & energy.
Strain on global supplies, raising prices.
Accelerated deforestation, mining, & water scarcity.
