Superpowers Flashcards
What is a superpower?
Country with the ability to project dominating power/influence anywhere in the world
Where do regional powers project power/influence?
In region/continent
Why is economic power important?
Foundation for other types of power
What are the 6 characteristics to define superpowers?
Economic
Political
Military
Cultural
Demographic
Access to natural resources
What 4 economic characteristics do superpowers have?
High GDP (USA have 22% of global GDP)
Control investment (in 2015, half of all global investment via London)
Powerful currencies (eg: $ OR £)
Economic policies (G20)
Evaluate the importance of economic power for superpower status
Foundation for other powers
Not static measure
What 2 political characteristics do superpowers have?
Links with countries for migration/trade (shift from G8 to G20- more are significant in decision making)
Influences politics everywhere
Evaluate the importance of political power for superpower status
Solves global problems
Organisation only as strong as weakest link
What 2 military characteristics do superpowers have?
Power from size and budget of military
Membership to UN security council for justified intervention (eg: UK)
What is an example of a superpower with a large military?
USA
Spend $877bil
Huge global reach
Evaluate the importance of military power for superpower status
Can use scaretactics
But now cyberwarfare and unarmed missiles
What culture do superpowers have?
Global culture spread by multimedia (Disney decides films/message to be watched)
UK radio dominates music production, also Sony in Japan
Evaluate the importance of cultural power for superpower status
Blocked by Chinese censorship
What demographic characteristics do superpowers have?
Higher/younger population means sufficient labour force (cheap labour too), more in army
Give a demographic example for a superpower
UK used inward migration in 1990s to fills labour shortage
Evaluate the importance of demographics for superpower status
Not critical as Singapore has a small population but lots of investment and is a key player in Asia
How does access to natural resources help with superpower status?
Essential to economic development eg: iron ore for steel industry
Evaluate the importance of access to natural resources for superpower status
No guarantee for development as resources often managed by TNCs such as Shell
Australia has huge iron reserves but exports, manufacturing value decreased
Can hold leverages
What is hard power?
Using military/economic influence to force a country to act in a particular way
What is soft power?
Subtle persuasion of countries to act in a particular way as they’re respected/apealing
Who founded ‘smart power’ and was it is?
Joseph Nye
Combination of hard and soft power
What are 6 mechanisms to maintain power, ranging from hard to soft?
HARD
Military attack
Military threat
Economic sanctions + diplomatic actions
Coercive policies (eg: tied aid)
Political/economic influence + moral authority
Cultural attractiveness
SOFT
How does the USA use military (hard) power?
To attack or deter countries
750 bases in 80 countries
How does the USA use entertainment (soft) power?
Spread ideas and capitalistic values for profit
70% of top 200 grossing movies from USA
How does the USA use education (soft) power?
Good looks, 3/5 of top unis in world
Offers great experience for international students
Evaluate the effectiveness of mechanisms of maintaining power (hard/soft)
Hard power is immediate, soft is slower
Military expensive + risky to rely on
Soft only useful if culture admired
Soft increasing importance due to tech (but censorship)
Who created the geo-strategic location theory?
Mackinder 1904
What is Mackinder’s geo-strategic location theory?
Environmental determinism- physical setting determines human culture and social development
What are the 3 areas in the geo-strategic location theory?
World island/heartland (eg: Europe)
Offshore islands (eg: Japan)
Outlying islands (eg: N+S America)
Why is the heartland the best place according the Mackinder?
50% of worlds resources
Lots of people
Technology (railway)
Who did Mackinder suggest should be the superpower?
Russia due to location and resources (was written at time of Russian Empire)
What is an issue with Russia being a superpower, physically?
Many borders, so can be attacked from any direction
Much of coastline frozen in winter so few year-round ports
What policy did Mackinder influence?
Containment (prevent spread)
USA used against USSR global power
Prevents communism spreading to Europe
Is Mackinder’s theory relevant today?
✓ Hard power still plays a role
X Superpowers at threat from cyber warfare anywhere
X TNCs have more power than nations as control global trade
What is imperialism?
An ideology forming the basis of colonialism (control, power, influence)
What is colonialism?
Direct political control of one nation over another, rules by force with little power to indigenous people
What is colonisation?
Physical settling of people from colonial power within its overseas territory
What is the British Empire?
Largest empire, controlled 25% of land mass at height due to geographical position (island with clear border)
What are the 2 phases of the British Empire?
Mercantile phase (trading)
Imperial phase (aggression)
How did the British Empire maintain power in the mercantile phase?
High investment in Royal Navy and ships to defend, recognised the importance of trade
Colonies (eg: N-America, West Indies) granted monopolies, Navigation Act 1651 meant closed economy, all products shipped to Britain
British East India Company to trade spices, silk, cotton, tea, defended by armed forces
How did the British Empire maintain power in the imperial phase?
War with America, forceful in India via threat to protesters, introduced English, cricket, Christianity (kill Indian in child)
Continued trade with USA after independence, moved attention to Asia, Australia, Africa finding profit in slave trade
Race against growing European powers to form trade route & colonise Africa (scramble for Africa), Berlin conference to harmonise
Why did the British Empire decline?
Economic cost high as needed to rebuild post WW2
Ideologically not ok, independence movements gained momentum
Global trade changed (new markets and competitions)
What is capitalism? Which country followed?
USA
Economic + political system in which country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit, rather than by the state
What is communism? Which country followed?
USSR
System of social organisation in which all property is owned by the state and each person contributes, then receives according to their ability and needs
When was the Cold War?
1945-1990
What was the Cold War?
Hostile relationship post-war, opposing ideologies (capitalism/communism) prevented mutual understanding, led to wars elsewhere and USA/USSR seeking to extend influence to other countries
Describe political control in the Cold War era
USA- democracy with free elections (more change for debate and following by people)
USSR- Single state dictatorship, no free elections (more following out of fear, but resentment)
Describe economic control in the Cold War era
USA- capitalist, free-market economy + global TNCs
USSR- Socialist, centrally planned economy + state-owned businesses
Describe military control in the Cold War era
USA- global nuclear weapons + intelligence, largest navy + most powerful air force, ring of bases surrounding USSR
USSR- global nuclear weapons + intelligence, large army but outdated navy + airforce
Describe cultural control in the Cold War era
USA- film + radio + TV + music industry globally conveyed positive view of consumerism, family values, democracy, affluence
USSR- ballet + art (less popular), strict censorship
What is neocolonialism?
Developing countries still influenced + controlled indirectly
Newly independent ≠ control of destiny
What are 3 neocolonial mechanisms?
- Military alliances- Superpowers strategically make developing nations dependent on military aid/equipment
- Aid- Tied development aid, forces recipient to agree to policies/spending priorities suggested
- Debt- Developing countries borrow money from developed, ends in debtor-creditor relationship
What are proxy wars?
Conflict between different parties instigated/supported by superpowers to achieve their own agendas
USA/USSR didn’t directly fight, just extended control globally
What is an example of a proxy war?
Korean war (1950-53)
USA and S-Korea taking most of the north
USSR and N-Korea drove US force back to 38º line
Why do superpowers engage in proxy wars?
- Safer (mutually assured destruction)
- Cheaper (armies irregular + less advanced)
How has China taken indirect control of Africa?
Trade continuing to increase (exports and imports)
Africa exports minerals to China
China exports machinery + electrical goods to Africa
What are the opportunities/challenges for China in its indirect control over Africa?
+ profit
+ access to cheap resources
+ political influence
- supply chains unreliable
- west doesn’t approve of abuse
What are the opportunities/challenges for Africa being indirectly controlled by China?
+ infrastructure
+ aid for socioeconomic development
- but tied aid, China requires return (exploitation)
- increased interdependence
- unsafe working conditions
- environmental degradation
What are the 3 different patterns of power?
Unipolar
Bipolar
Multipolar
What degree of geopolitical stability/risk does unipolar power bring?
Hegemon high/hard to sustain everywhere, all the time
Uprise + rebellion
What degree of geopolitical stability/risk does bipolar power bring?
High risk, scary but stable
Mutually assured destruction
Stability depends on control over countries in bloc, and communication
What degree of geopolitical stability/risk does multipolar power bring?
Many complex relationships between many states, with each having less power
Misjudging of intentions and/or alliances creating a powerful bloc can lead to conflict
Power vacuum between WWI and WWII allowed rise of Nazi Germnay
How are the BRICs becoming increasingly important?
2014 combined GDP of over $US16 tril
China HDI catching up to USA
India has fastest growing population
Russia has highest GDP/capita
Own 25% of land mass
What is the future of the BRICs?
China + India growing rapidly, need to reduce dependence on agriculture
What are BRICs becoming increasingly important to?
Economic systems
Political systems
Global environmental conference
How are the BRICs important to economic systems?
G20 countries comprise 85% of global GDP and 75% of world population
BRICs created 2 new financial institutions in 2014
Ability to manufacture goods other countries depend on
How are the BRICs important to political systems?
Economic importance enables alliances to form -> can act with greater influence
How are the BRICs important to global environmental conference?
2016 UN Paris Agreement- countries with most delegates (representatives) included China and Russia
Tackles climate change as BRICs 42% of global CO2 emmitions
Evaluate that China is the best BRIC economically
Better infrastructure
2nd largest GDP (although not /capita)
Huge player in global overseas investment (but debt)
Huge population, thus workforce (but aging)
Only 2% go to uni
Which BRIC is the best economically?
China
Which BRIC is the best politically?
India
Evaluate that India is the best BRIC politically
Largest democracy in world
Founding UN member, helps with peacekeeping
Many allies eg: UK
Which BRIC is the best in terms of its military?
Russia
Evaluate that Russia is the best BRIC in terms of its military
Military spend increasing (but navy + aircraft aging)
Many nuclear weapons + military satellites
Which BRICs are the best culturally?
Brazil & India
Evaluate that Brazil is the best BRIC culturally
Footballing nation- 2014 world cup, 2016 olympics
Evaluate that India is the best BRIC culturally
Birthplace of 4 major world religions eg: Hinduism
Largest film industry Bollywood 1200 films/year (but less global reach than Hollywood)
What BRIC is the best demographically?
India
Evaluate that India is the best BRIC demographically
Largest population 1.4bil, overtaken China
Youthful + large working population
What BRIC is the best environmentally?
Brazil
Evaluate that Brazil is the best BRIC environmentally
High biodiversity, especially in Amazon (but deforestation rate increasing, mining pollution)
Has 13% of all known species
Supports UN climate change conference
What are the 3 development theories that can be used to explain changing patterns of power?
Modernisation Theory (Rostow 1960)
Dependency Theory (Frank 1960s)
World Systems Theory (Wallerstein 1974)
How does the Modernisation Theory explain changing patterns of power?
Capitalism fundamental solution to poverty, else trapped in cycle
Promotion of modern economic development (fearing communist expansion) via WB and IMF investment eg: Japan, Singapore
Economic development only begins when certain preconditions met eg: infrastructure, tech, education, banking
What are some limitations of the Modernisation Theory?
Assumes all countries have an equal chance (no regard to population size, location)
Not always linear (eg: conflict in Afghanistan)
How does the Dependency Theory explain changing patterns of power?
Marxist view of rich (core) vs poor (periphery)
Developed control the development of developing (dependent/bound, poverty maintained in vicious cycle)
What is an example of the Dependency Theory?
GB ruled Kenya until 1950, they exported tea for a low price, UK exported high cost, processed/packaged to Kenya
Kenya to export cash crops (exploitation)
What are some limitations of the Dependency Theory?
Not simple core/periphery distinction (eg: India)
Singapore was a colony but is now highly developed
How does the World Systems Theory explain changing patterns of power?
World more complex than simple core/periphery
Development viewed in global context, interactions between multiple nations, not just pairs of countries
Theory acknowledges countries aren’t static (eg: China may become core), best fitting for today
What are some limitations of the World Systems Theory?
Doesn’t count for social factors of development
Ignores intra-inequality
What is free trade?
Exchange of goods/services free of import/export taxes/tariffs/quotas on trade volume
What are IGOs?
Organisations whose members are countries, to increase cooperation on issues
When/why did IGOs emerge?
After WW2 in Bretton Woods Conference
Best way to avoid future wars is to increase economic cooperation, promotes peace, raised lots of money post-war
Using statistics, how do superpowers disproportionately influence the global economy?
USA has largest share of voting rights in IMF (16.5%)
In WEF 2020, USA had most attendees (so most power)
USA + EU + Japan account for 60% of GDP
What are the 4 IGOs that allow superpowers to influence the global economy?
World Bank (1944)
International Monetary Fund (1944)
World Economic Forum (1971)
World Trade Organisation (1995)
What does the World Bank do?
Loans from developed for developing/emerging to encourage industrialisation/economic development
What are some flaws of the World Bank?
Superpowers have more power in what gets funded
Benefits mostly TNCs as forces economies to open to investment (ultimately for profit)
What does the IMF do?
Promotes global stability, aid/loans to help economic difficulty (eg: debt)
Capitalism promoted
What are some flaws of the IMF?
Voting rights weighted towards superpowers
Loan conditions almost impossible to repay (benefits superpowers)
What does the WEF do?
Forum for discussion
Promotes globalisation (TNCs, free trade)
Public-private cooperation
Thinks internationally
What are some flaws of the WEF?
Ticket price extremely high, only for elite
Poor countries representatives can’t make decisions affecting the world
What does the WTO do?
Removes barriers for global trade, free trade agreements gradually removing tax/quotas
What are some flaws of the WTO?
Poor countries not protected as cheap imports undercut locals
TNCs HQ in superpowers and infiltrate foreign markets, more money to superpowers
What is the case study for a historical TNC?
Dutch East India Company
Founded 1602, lasted for just under 200 years
What did the Dutch East India Company do?
Commanded ships, people, and war
Monopoly over trade in Asia, established trading ports
At its height, how much was the Dutch East India Company worth?
US$7.8 trillion
Why did the Dutch East India Company decline?
Competition, explusion from taiwan
How are trade patterns changing?
Increased trade, increased value of trade
More in emerging, less in USA
In terms of trade patterns, are TNCs or the government more powerful?
TNCs: driven by profit, large budget (eg: Walmart = Sweden)
Gov: driven for greater good, sets regulations
But, TNCs increase government power due to tax, and tax from employers
How do patents work?
Research & development leads to new products
After patents, anyone who uses the product pays royalty
How have superpowers maintained wealth via patents?
Positive feedback (rich get richer)
85% of global royalty to USA + EU + Japan
How have pharmaceutical patents maintained power/wealth?
Monopoly suppliers for drug, charge high price as no competition
People are dying in developing/emerging as trade > health
WTO have made drug patents for MIN 20y, increasing the problem
What is westernisation?
Adoption of western culture/values (soft power)
Name 6 ways westernisation has occurred?
- Sport (eg: cricket)
- Importance of latest tech/media/entertainment to solve issues
- TNCs bring cultural impact for consumer
- Cultural values of capitalism + consumerism
- English as a dominant global language
- Bible most commonly read book in world, Christianity spread via colonialism
Give 2 stats regarding TNCs and westernisation
900 Starbucks in China
Top 5 TNCs (largest brand value) in USA, no top in emerging yet
What are 2 counterpoints to westernisation influencing global culture?
Glocalisation
East-west cultural transfer
Give 3 examples of east-west cultural transfer
K-pop music, top has 24bil hits in 2016, 80% streamed outside of Korea
Curry most popular takeout in UK (colonial past in India)
Food, Chinatown in London + NYC
What is the name for the mix/diffusion of different cultures to create a new culture?
Cultural hybridisation
What is an example of cultural hybridisation?
Sushi burrito
What are 3 benefits of cultural hybridisation?
Profit
Inclusivity
Development + advancement
What role do superpowers/emerging powers play in 3 global actions?
Crisis response: Haiti Hurricane Matthew 2016
Conflict: Afghanistan current conflict
Climate change: Kirubati
Why did powerful nations need to help Haiti in their hurricane Matthew 2016?
Poor, little resilience to disaster, aid fatigue
Who helped Haiti in Hurricane Matthew 2016?
USA/France gave 550 personnel + humanitarian aid
But also NGO Red Cross appeals gave US$7 mil
Evaluate superpower’s role in crisis response
Maybe don’t play a key role as Nepal earthquake 2015 received help from 48 countries
Why did powerful nations need to help with the Afghanistan current conflict?
99% are Muslim, conflict between traditional vs women’s rights
Also mountainous so hard to defend
Who helped Afghanistan in conflict?
Invading troops + tanks from USSR
Weapons from USA for rebels
→ to gain allies
Evaluate superpower’s role in conflict
Now rise of private military that can act on behalf of superpowers/emerging powers- less of a role
Why do powerful nations need to help with climate change in Kirubati?
Low-lying and sea level rising
Ocean temp increased by >1ºC so tropical storms increasing
Who helped the people of Kirubati to adapt to climate change?
Australia gave opportunity for seasonal work
New Zealand allows 75 peoples to relocate there per year
What is interdependence?
Mutal dependence at a global level
For reliance, reciprocal benefits, strength in numbers
What is geostrategy?
Strategy in dealing with geopolitical problems (risk of countries interacting)
Because military, economic, environmental factors all important for increased effectiveness
What are 2 military alliances?
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)
The Australia, New Zealand and United States Security Treaty (ANZUS)
What does NATO do?
Attack on member = attack on all
Spend 2% of GDP on defence
Role questioned as the cold war ended, but Russia/Ukraine conflict brought role forward
What does ANZUS do?
Binds to cooperate on military matters in the Pacific region
Helps USA maintain military presence
What are 3 economic alliances?
EU
ASEAN
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
What does the EU do?
Free trade and movement
Principal that economic strength ensures against poverty, also extends to environmental issues eg: water quality
But greater integration eg: European Defence Force = tensions → Brexit
What does ASEAN do?
Free trade, cultural cooperation, common legal framework
But China is an economic giant and dominates north, is becoming increasingly terrotorial
What does NAFTA do?
USA + Canada benefit from cheap Mexican labour costs
But manufacturing jobs move south
What is the environmental alliance? What does it do?
Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
Regular scientific assessments for climate change (impacts, future risk, mitigation/adaptation)
But only discusses implications, doesn’t tell policy makers which actions to make
In alliances, what happens if the development level is imbalanced?
Developed have a greater say/decision-making power
What does the UN do?
Fosters communication between countries to achieve goals (eg: peace, human rights)
What 4 components of the UN are important for global geopolitical stability?
Security council
International court of justice
Peacekeeping missions
UNFCCC + IPCC
How is the UN security council important for global geopolitical stability?
Prevents large-scale conflict by taking military action/applying economic or diplomatic sanctions
There are 5 permanent members (US/UK/France/China/Russia
But permanent members can veto decisions, usually Russia
How is the International Court of Justice important for global geopolitical stability?
Western legal framework to uphold international law and settle country disputes
How are peacekeeping missions important for global geopolitical stability?
Sourcing armed forces as have 100,000 soldiers
Nambia 1989 ended civil war and supported the first free and fair elections
How are the UNFCCC and the IPCC important for global geopolitical stability?
Gives scientific advice informing on global warming so international agreements formed (eg: COP 21 Paris 2015 agreement, where countries pledged to decrease carbon emissions)
Give 3 additional reasons why the UN plays an important role in global geopolitical stability
Humanitarian aid via IGOs such as UNICEF to help crisis
Developmental work
Cooperation + multilateralism
Give 4 reasons why the UN may not be important to global geopolitical stability
Just a forum, so limited binding/enforcement
High + surging cost
Ineffectiveness/incompetence + red tape
Selective intervention driven by the interests of powerful members
Using stats, show how superpowers/emerging powers have disproportionately large carbon footprints
China has highest total CO2 emissions, however only 6.5 tonnes/capita
But USA + EU responsible for over half of cumulative CO2 emissions in last 150 years due to high consumption rate
USA uses up more resources than can be consumed by March of the year
What model shows how emerging powers have a large contribution to environmental degradation?
Kuznet’s curve
Talk about USA’s consumption and environmental issues
Highest consumer of electricity, natural gas, oil, corn
Pollution, landscape scarring, oil spills
What are some underlying causes of the consumption and environmental issues in the USA?
Large population with poor lifestyle eg: high car ownership, fast fashion
Large landmass increases food miles
What are some local and global issues from the USA’s resource demands?
Local: trash, water contamination, ecosystem deterioration
Global: fossil fuels –> global warming
Talk about Brazil’s consumption and environmental issues
3rd largest consumer of corn
Drought + deforestation
What are some underlying causes of the consumption and environmental issues in Brazil?
Urbanisation/urban sprawl
Deforestation for agriculture
What are some local and global issues from Brazil’s resource demands?
Local: less water impacts agriculture, more soil erosion = floods
Global: less carbon sinks
Talk about Russia’s consumption and environmental issues
2nd largest consumer of natural gas, 4th largest consumer of electricity and oil
Air pollution and energy insecurity
What are some underlying causes of the consumption and environmental issues in Russia?
Cold so increases cost and use of energy
Economy exports a lot of oil
What are some local and global issues from Russia’s resource demands?
Local: permafrost melting ruins infrastructure
Global: climate change and global warming, permafrost melting releases methane
Talk about India’s consumption and environmental issues
2nd largest consumer of wheat, cotton, rice, 4th largest consumer of coal + oil
Air and water pollution worse than China
What are some underlying causes of the consumption and environmental issues in India?
Largest population requires resources
Open-air cooking in slums
Socio-economic progress prioritised
What are some local issues from India’s resource demands?
Smog decreases crop yield as it blocks sun/photosynthesis
Water pollution = poor sanitation + spread of disease
Talk about China’s consumption and environmental issues
Highest consumer of coal, wheat, cotton rice
Air and water pollution
What are some underlying causes of the consumption and environmental issues in China?
Large population
Industrialisation
Government prioritise economy
What are some local issues from China’s resource demands?
Great Pacific Garbage Patch (floating rubbish) + toxins are harmful to marine environment –> collapse of local food chain
What was the Paris Climate Change Agreement 2015?
Keep temperature increase well below 2ºC, wants emissions to peak ASAP, then cut rapidly
£65 bil/year investment to help poorer countries adapt to change + invest in green technology
What are 2 strengths of the Paris agreement?
200 countries signed- working together + political will
Sustainability at heart
What are 3 weaknesses of the Paris agreement?
Cutting subsidies for renewable energy
Too little is legally binding
Vague in country’s specifics
What was the willingness of the USA to act on environmental issues in 2015 under Obama?
‘Clean power plan’ as used a lot of coal
State by state basis due to localised needs
What was the willingness of the USA to act on environmental issues in 2017 under Trump?
Pulled out of Paris Agreement as wanted to prioritise economy (although some states ignored this)
Made US look unreliable + unable to compromise for the greater good- weakens alliances + influence
What is the willingness of the USA to act on environmental issues in 2022 under Biden?
Resigned Paris Agreement
‘Inflation reduction act’ eg: gave tax credits to switch to renewables
What is the willingness of China to act on environmental issues?
Pledged to cap CO2 emissions by 2030, experimenting with wind/solar energy
Huge pressure from west to act and reduce carbon footprint
Now have pulled out to ‘take own path’, no intention of following Western net-zero goal
What is the willingness of the EU to act on environmental issues?
On track for 40% reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050
Increasing energy efficiency eg: insulation, new cars must have lower emissions
What is the willingness of Russia to act on environmental issues?
Pledged to cut emissions by 30% by 2030 but hasn’t ratified due to powerful oil/gas companies
In 2015 was actually 35% below emissions as economy had collapsed after fall of Soviet Union
What is the middle class?
Those with discretionary income
Globally earn US$10-100 /day
How is the middle class changing?
Expected to grow from 2bil to 5bil, mostly in Asia
Which countries are expected to make up half of global middle-class consumption by 2030?
India and China
How has the country with the highest middle class consumption rate changed?
2009- USA highest at 21%
2030- India to be highest at 23%
How has poverty (linked to middle class) changed in China?
2009- 90% lived on less than US$10 /day
2030- only 25% to live on less than US$10 /day
What are the 4 resources in demand that can cause environmental degradation?
Rare earths
Oil
Staple grains
Water
Who is in demand for rare earths and what is the effect of this?
China increasing demand
Shortages, so price increases
Processing 1 tonne generates 2000 tonnes of toxic waste (damages agricultural land)
Water demand increasing
Who is in demand for oil and what is the effect of this?
Emerging nations from 45% of global consumption to 55%
Supply decrease so price increasing
Carbon emissions
Oil producing countries more powerful eg: Russia, Brazil
Who is in demand for staple grains and what is the effect of this?
China change to more protein, increases meat consumption by 99%
Land conversion for nutrition transition decreases availability of staple grains so price rises
Who is in demand for water and what is the effect of this?
India + emerging nations consumption increasing (eg: washing machines)
In India, 60% facing water scarcity by 2030, so water supply issues (health impacts)
Overabstraction
Why is global resource demand increasing, and what does this result in?
Due to:
Increasing global population
Increasing global middle class
Results in environmental degradation through increased resource consumption
Why does resource consumption lead to environmental degradation and what are the effects of this?
Protein based diet = deforestation, more methane
Urbanisation + urban sprawl = deforestation to make room
→ Soil erosion, forests used to act as carbon sinks
Industrialisation to meet needs = increases CO2 + resource use
Fossil fuels extracted = emissions, CO2 = climate change
→Poor air quality/smog linked to crop failure
What is a sphere of influence?
Area beyond a country’s national borders, but they have control over
How many counties have a presence in the Arctic region?
8
What physical resources are disputed over in the Arctic region?
Oil (15% of world’s undiscovered oil)
Gas (20% of world’s undiscovered oil)
Key to Russia’s economy = tension
Why is physical resource exploitation in the Arctic more logistically/economically viable?
Volume of sea ice decreasing due to climate change, but this opens trade routes
What does exploitation of the Arctic region negatively impact?
Impacts marine biodiversity as food chain is simplistic
What are the conflicts in the Arctic region?
Russia, possible future conflict with NATO
Indigenous people
Low tension between USA/Canada
Why may Russia have future conflict with NATO over the environmental sphere of the Arctic region?
Military bases built in a strategic place and adapted to the conditions
Over 470 pieces of military infrastructure in region since 2012
Only country in the Arctic with nuclear ice-breakers (to open + control shipping routes). Russia wants to charge other countries to use to increase economic power
Why do indigenous people have conflict over the environmental sphere of the Arctic region?
500,000 live in region
Don’t want pristine, ancestral land plundered by outsiders
Do want sustainable fishing (but supply decreasing as exploited)
Russian drilling impacted the Nenets
What area in the Arctic region may there be tensions over between the USA and Canada? Why is there low tension?
Beaufort Sea has pie slice border with potential 1.7 bil m3 of gas and 1 bil m3 of oil. Historical treaty unclear
Low tension due to:
- technological challenges
- high cost
- strict regulation
- lack of infrastructure
- Paris agreement
Give 3 ways Russia has geopolitically influenced the Arctic
Coal mining in Svalbard for strategy to possibly claim in future. But Svalbard treaty permits countries to commercially exploit as it attracts investment, but countries can’t have military assets
Expending military influence in the Arctic with new bases + 50 airfields to show force
Continental shelf is part of landmass covered in ocean. Claims of shelf (EEZ) overlap so Russia planted flag on seafloor in 2007 under north pole. Denmark contested to this
What is the tension over an economic sphere of influence?
Intellectual property (IP) → counterfeit + pirated goods
What % of global imports are counterfeit/pirated goods? WHat is this % in the EU?
2.5%
5% in EU
What is the value of counterfeit and pirated goods?
Worth US$461 bil /year (higher value than some countries)
Is rising
Give 2 reasons why the USA and EU are hit the hardest by counterfeit/pirated goods
- Have many historical patents via industrialisation, so lose on modern counterfeiting
- Can fund R&D / innovation
What % of fake goods originate in China?
55%
Give 3 reasons why most goods originate in China/other emerging nations
- Have infrastructure to facilitate large-scale trade
- Organised crime/corruption
- Fewer controls + restrictions
Which industries are most impacted by counterfeit/pirating?
Luxury, designer, Western status symbol
Why are luxury/designer industries most impacted by counterfeit/pirating? What is the condition to this?
Small so less noticeable when exported
But limitation on how much can be sent before suspicions
How can countries being involved in counterfeit/pirating strain trade/international relations?
If seen as a hub for this activity and lack of gov action…
- trade deals are much harder
- less likely to cooperate on other international law issues
How can countries being involved in counterfeit/pirating make TNCs reluctant to invest?
Profits lower and reputation lower if counterfeits produced
Consumer quality + health and safety at risk, although cheaper for consumer
What can help combat counterfeiting/pirating?
Trade related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPS)
- resolves IP disputes
- protects patents to reduce IP theft
- WTO members guaranteed copyright protection
What is a sphere of influence?
Area beyond a country’s national borders they have control over
What are the 2 examples of political spheres of influence being contested?
Russia/Ukraine conflict: annexation of Crimea
South China sea
What is the brief timeline for the annexation of Crimea?
2014- military figures surrounded Crimea airports and was seized by Russian forces
- fraudulent referendum was held so Russia maintained control, was expelled from G8
2018- Russia tightened hold over Crimea by building 12-mile-long bridge attaching to mainland
2020- Ukraine granted NATO enhanced opportunity partner status, deepening connection to west
2022- Russia held military training drills at border with explosions
- west supported Ukraine eg: Germany gave tanks
- China supported Russia via aid
Now- Kyiv targeted over 16 times in May 2023
- still in stalemate but Russia’s land gain decreasing
What implications for people has the open conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused?
2014 Russian missile shot down plane and killed 298
Number of casualties killed/injured is increasing
Massive outmigration from Ukraine, 1.6 million to Poland
What implications for the physical environment has the open conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused?
Kakhovka dam destroyed, industrial sites flooded + released 150,000 tonnes of toxins
Air/water/soil/land pollution
Damage to ecosystems reduces biodiversity
What are 5 reasons as to why Russia invaded Ukraine?
- Sees Ukraine as Russian national patrimony
- Bitter resentment at loss of Ukraine after fall of USSR
- Geopolitical ambitions to resist NATOs eastward expansion and reclaim their historical sphere of influence
- Fears spread from west-orientated Ukraine, Putin claims Russia is a victim to the west
- Saw west as weak + divided eg: Brexit/covid/US-China rivalry
What is the South China Sea?
1.5 million km²
Has overlapping claims over different parts of the region
Why is the South China Sea valuable?
Second most used shipping lane in world with 1/3 of shipping through
1/3 world’s marine biodiversity
28 billion barrels worth of oil, lots of natural gas
What does the UN convention on the law of the sea suggest?
Every country has an ‘Exclusive Economic Zone’ (EEZ) that extends 200 nautical miles off coastline, countries have right to control/exploit
Who has current ownership over the South China Sea?
China claims Spratly Islands since 3rd centuary
Vietnam date claim for Paracel Islands back to 17th century, but China established administrative body there in 2012
Philippines claim based on proximity, closest to Spratly Islands
Malaysia/Brunei’s EEZ gives them rights to parts of it
What have been 2 examples of tensions arising over overlapping claims in the South China
China/Vietnam land invasion in 70s/80s with over 100 soldiers/sailors killed
2015 USA flyover provoked response from China
What are 2 of China’s strategies to exert control in the South China Sea region?
9-dash-line: historical claim way out of EEZ
Cabbage strategy: surround contested island with many ships, layers block others from accessing land
Where have economic ties between emerging powers and the developing world been created? What theory does this link to?
China + Africa neocolonialism (Frank’s dependency theory)
- Africa exports raw/natural resources
- China exports higher value manufactured goods
Why and where are there tensions within Asia?
Countries striving for power
South-China sea
China vs Taiwan
Why is there conflict between China and Taiwan?
Chinese civil war: nationalists vs communists
Nationalists lost in 1949, fled to Taiwan
China wants Taiwan as they have economic power from electronics market, becoming increasingly important
How many countries in the world recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country?
13
Compare China’s military to Taiwan
China has over 2 million active forces, whereas Taiwan has only 169,000, although Taiwan has more reserves
China has 4800 tanks whereas Taiwan has only 650 so can at best slow an attack
How is the significance of the China vs Taiwan tension perceived by Taiwanese people?
2/3 Taiwanese people believe there won’t be a war (unbothered)
Proportion of residents identifying as Taiwanese went from 20% → 60% in 30 years
How is the significance of the China vs Taiwan tension perceived by the USA?
China has a goal of unification by 2049: USA predicts war then
They sell arms to Taiwan to exert influence
War may be sooner as west distracted by Ukraine/Israel conflicts
Why does the complex geopolitical relationship between the middle east (Israel and Iran) pose little threat to the USA?
Regional conflict: Judaism vs Islam
Geographical distance
Limited military capacity to project power to the strong USA (although Israel is strongest in Middle East, and Iran thought to be developing nuclear weapons)
Why does the complex geopolitical relationship between the middle east (Israel and Iran) pose threat to the USA?
Vital energy resources (region supplies over 30% global oil)- supply disruptions (and energy usage in USA ↑); although starting to use more renewables so less relevant
Allied with Israel so may get pulled in
What are the 4 internal economic problems faced by the USA and EU?
Debt
Unemployment
Economic restructuring
Social costs
How does debt represent an ongoing challenge to the USA and EU?
US = US$34 tril
EU= very high, especially Greece = US$400 bil
Global financial crisis 2008- debt rose (also leading to expensive housing), austerity budgets
How does unemployment represent an ongoing challenge to the USA and EU?
Youth unemployment high, especially in Spain (28%)
Peaked in COVID, 25% in Detroit
How does economic restructuring represent an ongoing challenge to the USA and EU?
Decline of manufacturing
Since 1970:
Germany 45% → 25%
US 25% → 10%
What are social costs representing an ongoing challenge to the EU?
(Illegal) migration / refugee crisis
What are social costs representing an ongoing challenge to the US?
42% Obese
BLM + systemic racism increases inequality
Democrat/republican increased polarisation + rise of far right
Most job shortages in healthcare/social work
What are social costs representing an ongoing challenge to both the EU and US?
Dependency ratio high for the working age due to ageing population
→ impacts pension/health funding, so tax increases
What are the economic costs for the US in maintaining global military power? Evaluate
Spends most money (and increasing) on military & most powerful military
But Russia spends 1/10 of money and 2nd most powerful military
Why should the US spend money to maintain global military power?
Exerts global influence (definition of influence) + can intimidate and deter attacks
Leverage in other power
Sense of safety + security for civilians
Can attract allies
Why shouldn’t the US spend money to maintain global military power?
UN + global agreements more effective than military intervention & may restrict individual governments
SP status now demonstrated via culture / tech advancement
Austerity budgets spent to ↓ internal disparities eg: education
What was the Space race during the Cold War?
Each side wanted to prove superiority of technology/military, and by extension, political/economic system (capitalist vs communism)
What is evidence to show that the US is shifting away from space exploration? Why?
NASA as a % of federal spending budget from 4.5% to 0.5% in 60 years
Higher priority for other roles eg: managing climate
What is evidence that China is becoming a space superpower?
Conquering space is a key strategic priority
In 2019, rocket on far side of the moon which transmits data
What is the purpose of the new space race? Who is involved?
To claim what is there for: prestige, commercial, strategic
USA, China, Russia (over 80 countries in total)
→ but private companies growing rapidly
Why are there tensions in space?
Attacking satellites destroys international communication networks
→ countries may take action if they feel threatened
What are 2 examples of cooperation happening in space?
Medicine
Clean energy via nuclear fusion
How is the GDP (economic power) changing in the future?
In 2030, China to overtake US GDP (US$38 tril vs US$35 tril),
US growth decreasing
India to have 3rd largest GDP in 2050
How is the population (economic power) changing in the future?
Total poplation for China and US increasing, but China decreasing by 2050
China has aging population, 27% 65+ in 2050 but only 10% in 2015 - India has more youthful population
Why may the future balance of global power be continued USA dominance?
China struggles to gains soft power
High poverty and inequality elsewhere
High rates of resource consumption elsewhere
US acts as global policeman to exert influence in every region, always
Why may the future balance of global power be bipolar?
West vs east polarisation
China claims south China sea
China more neocolonial investment in Africa
Beijing + Moscow align, and oppose US values
Why may the future balance of global power be multipolar?
Emergence of BRIC + MINT nations
Crisis disproportionately impacts advanced economies
Expanding influence of IGOs
US pulls out of NATO (what Trump wants)
Collaboration to deal with global issues
Why are predictions over the future balance of global power uncertain?
Harder to predict further into the future, so less reliable
Different organisations have different data to come to predictions
HILP/black swan events eg: natural disasters, financial crisis, pandemics, terrorism
