Social and economic impacts of climate change Flashcards
What will a stabilization of CO2 levels at 450 ppm lead to?
A 50% probability of keeping the
increase in temperature below 2 ° C
Explain what the PAT identity is
The equation I = PAT is an expression that represents the impact (I) of human activities on the environment
I: Impact on the environment
P: Population
A: Affluence (per capita consumption)
T: Technological impact (per unit of consumption)
Write down the PAT identity for greenhouse gas pollution.
I = P x A x T
Greehouse gas polution = Population x GDP per capita x Technology
What does decoupling economic growth and ecological footprint means in terms of the PAT identity?
Decoupling economic growth and ecological footprint means that CO2 emissions do not follow economic growth. It entails breaking the traditional relationship between economic growth (A in the PAT equation) and the ecological footprint (I in the PAT equation).
Discuss the recent past record in terms of decoupling economic growth and ecological footprint and what is needed to achieve zero net emissions.
Per-capita consumption (the A in PAT) needs to stop growing and maybe decline.
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What were the social, political, and economic consequences of the so-called “little ice age”, a period of cooling around the 16th 17th centuries, where average temperatures decreased 1^C or less and the temperature variability increased?
- widespread economic distress
- social unrest
- population decline
- increase in witchcraft trials
Name 5 impacts of climate change on human societies
What are the direct health effects of climate change?
- Heat stress
- Disasters: floods, hurricanes, wildfires
- Diseases
^^ the changing climate and habitat destruction has driven and will drive virus-carrying species into ever closer contact with human populations - Temperature and risk of mortality: decline in cold countries, increase in warm countries
What are the effects of climate change on food security?
Globally, the potential for food production is projected to:
* increase with moderate warming (avg. +1-3°C)
* decrease with severe warming (>3°C)
What are the effects of climate change on displacement of people?
Higher exposure to extreme weather events
(droughts, floods, hurricanes)
→ Generally temporary and short-range migration
* Long-term climate variability and change
(rising sea levels, lower crop yields)
→ Permanent and long-range migration
What effect does climate change have on instability and violent conflict?
Two conjectures often given as to why climate change might not
have a substantive impact on human conflict:
1) GRADUAL CHANGE. Future climate change will occur gradually and will, thus, allow societies to adapt
2) NO LINK IN MODERN SOCIETIES. The world today is less susceptible to climate variations than it has been in the past. It is unclear in the data if this will be the case.
What are the effects of climate change in terms of economic losses?
- According to 2006 Stern Review on economics of climate change -
By 2050: loss of at least 5% in global growth each year. If we also take the impact on environment and health and knock-on effects into account, it could be as much as 20% of annual global GDP
Cost of taking action: 1% of global GDP per year would enable to
keep global warming within 2°C of pre-industrial levels
How do temperature increases affect productivity?
- Economic productivity is concave in temperature, with a maximum at an annual average temperature of 13^C
- Technological advances, the accumulation of wealth, and the experienced warming have not fundamentally altered this relationship (no trend)
- Poor tropical countries exhibit larger responses mainly because they are hotter on average, not because they are poorer
- Warming may amplify global inequality because hot, poor countries will probably suffer the largest reduction in growth
Explain the concept of stranded assets
Stranded assets are assets that lose their value prematurely due to climate-related factors.
