Managing risk of catastrophic climate change, climate sensitivity Flashcards
Draw the climate sensitivity curve for CO2e of 560 ppm and explain it
The climate sensitivity curve represents the relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2e concentrations and the resulting increase in global average temperature. It helps us understand how sensitive the Earth’s climate system is to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.
Initially, as CO2e concentrations increase, the curve shows a steeper incline, indicating a larger temperature response. This is because at lower concentrations, there is more available “climate response” to the increase in greenhouse gases.
However, as CO2e concentrations continue to rise, the curve becomes flatter, indicating a reduced temperature response per unit increase in concentration. This diminishing effect occurs because the climate system reaches a state of equilibrium and certain feedback mechanisms, such as increased heat radiation to space, start to limit the temperature increase.
What is climate sensitivity?
Climate sensitivity refers to the effect of doubling carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere on global average surface temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels.
How is climate sensitivity captured?
Climate sensitivity is captured in terms of probability due to high levels of uncertainty in measuring and calculating it.
What is the likelihood of a global average temperature above 6 degrees Celsius at 700 ppm carbon dioxide levels?
The likelihood is 11%, which means there is a 1 out of 10 chance of such high temperatures leading to the destruction of civilization as we know it.
What is the statistically more likely warming at 700 ppm carbon dioxide concentrations?
The statistically more likely warming is 3.4 degrees Celsius.
What is the risk of a 6 degrees Celsius warming at 400 ppm carbon dioxide concentrations?
The risk is 0.04%.
What are the potential consequences of reaching a state with a 6 degrees Celsius warming?
Implementing adaptation policies to prevent damages might not even be an option in such a state.
