S4: Demography Flashcards
Def of Demography
Scientific study of human population, Including:
- Population census
- Population pyramid
- Overpopulation problem
- Fertility indices
Def of Population census
- Enumeration of all persons in the country at specified time to collect demographic and socioeconomic data.
How Often is Population census done?
Every 10 years
at Time of minimal movement & done in winter not in summer
Value of Population census
❶ Full description of population.
❷ Data for:
Statistical indices.
Community programs (including health services)
Types of Population census
De Facto & De Jure
Method of counting people in DeFacto enumeration
- In the locality during census time
Characters of DeFacto enumeration
- Simple & economic
Where is DeFacto enumeration Adopted?
Egypt & England
Method of counting in DeJure enumeration
According to actual residence
Characters of DeJure enumeration
More difficult, time consuming & expensive
Where is DeJure enumeration adopted?
USA
Methods of data collection in census
❶ Questionnaire filled by head of the family .
❷ Enumerators visit families collect data.
(Adopted in Egypt)
History of census in Egypt
- 1st: 1882 (total population was 6.7 million).
- Last: the 14th 2017 total population was 94.8 million.
- The central Agency for Public Mobilization &Statistics (CAPMAS) is responsible for census taking in Egypt.
Presentation of number of populations
1- Census population. The number of populations during census year.
2- Estimated population. The number is estimated at dates other than census years.
3- Mid-year population (Census or estimated): i.e. number of population at the middle of a given year (first of July).
Census population
The number of populations during census year
Estimated population
The number is estimated at dates other than census years.
Mid-year population
(census or estimated): i.e. number of population at the middle of a given year (first of July).
Methods of estimation of population
- Natural increase method
- Arithmetic method
- Geometric method
- Graph method
Methods of estimation of population
- Natural increase method
- (Births –deaths) every year is added to last census
population. - It is rough method &suitable for countries with no or limited migration.
Methods of estimation of population
- Arithmetic Mean
- It assumes that there is constant annual increase in population
e.g.,
- if we want to calculate the population in 2018, already we know the census of 2007 is 200,000 individuals, and the census of 2017 was 250,000 so the average
- increase every year (mean annual increase) = (250,000-200,000)/10 years=5000 person /year.
- The estimated population in 2018 =250,000+5000
- The estimated population in 2019 =250,000+10,000 and so on
Methods of estimation of population
- Geometric Method
- Most accurate, use last census and annual rate of population growth (calculated using special formula).
Methods of estimation of population
- Graph Method
- Plotting the successive census populations on a graph & joined by a straight line that can be extended over future years.
- It can be used to find out the inter-census population at a given year& expected population of future years (assuming that population growth rate will not change).
Def of Population pyramid
A graphical presentation of the age & sex composition of a population of an area or country at a point in time.
What affects the shape of Population pyramid?
births, deaths, migration
Describe Population pyramid
- It is Back-to-back histograms (age is a continuous variable), one showing numbers of males, the other shows the numbers of females.
- The bars: represent age bands of 5 year-interval
Structure of Population pyramid
Revise Notes
Bases for Comparison inside the pyramid
- Variation across age groups
- Variations within each age group by sex
From the shape of the pyramid
- Sex Ratio
Percentage of males and females
From the shape of the pyramid
- Age Structure
- Base denotes births (broad or narrow base)
- Apex denotes elderly
From the shape of the pyramid
- Mortality & Emigration
Shape of sides (sloping or steep).
From the shape of the pyramid
- Life expectancy: (the average number of years an individual of given age is going to live)
Height of the pyramid and shape of the apex.
From the shape of the pyramid
- Dependency Ratio
- The Dependency Ratio describes the relation between the dependent portions at the extremes of age and the potentially self-supporting portion of the population.
Types of Dependency Ratio
- Young
- Old
- Total
Young dependency
- Area below the horizontal line passing through 15years of age
Old dependency
Area above the horizontal line passing through 60 years of age
Total dependency
- Presented by the surface area below the horizontal line passing through 15 years of age and that above the horizontal line passing through 60 years of
age
Dependency ratio = ??
Compare between population pyramids for developed& developing countries in terms of:
- Base
- Sides
- Height
- Apex
Factors affecting Population growth
- Natural increase of population= live births –deaths (basic factor)
- Migration= immigration- emigration (minor factor)
Population growth= (birth-deaths) + (immigration-emigration)
Rate of Natural Growth =
Def of Fertility
- It is the ability to conceive &having children through normal sexual activity.
- Fertility behavior of any community is determined by prevailing fertility motives.
High fertility motives
- High infant and child mortality.
- Economic motive: children are employed to support family income
- Traditional beliefs; Sons and family name, happy marriage, big families.
- Religious beliefs
- Husbands: fertility means vitality& manliness.
- Wife: many children prevent divorce.
- People dislike contraception: fear of side effects, it interfere with sex
Low fertility motives
- Preserving health of mother & children.
- Better lifestyle, standard of living & family welfare.
- Avoiding overpopulation.
- Support community development.
Causes of Overpopulation
High rate of natural increase due to
1- high birth rate with high fertility motives
2- progressive declining of death rate
Hazards of Overpopulation
- Individual Level
- Family Level
- National Level
Hazards of Overpopulation
- Individual Level
1- Infant and young children: high morbidity and mortality
2- Mothers: high morbidity and mortality due to repeated unspaced pregnancies
3- Fathers: financial problems.
Hazards of Overpopulation
- Family Level
Big family& low per capita income lead to
1- Poor housing
2- Poor nutrition
3- Child labor
4- Neglect care and culture of children
5- Deficient medical care
Causes of Hazards of Overpopulation at national Level
1- Increases the gap between resources and population growth,
2- High proportion of dependent non-productive ages.
Hazards of Overpopulation at national Level
1- Housing; increase crowding index& slum areas,
2- Food supply; increase import & prices,
3- School education; crowding.
4- Public services; inconvenient
5- Employment; no work opportunities
Management of Overpopulation problem
Short & Long Term
Management of Overpopulation problem
- Short term
Family planning program
Management of Overpopulation problem
- Long Term
improve the following:
- Child survival through lowering infant& child mortality
- Standard of Living: family is not in need of employing children for economic support
- Education& culture
Examples of Fertility indices (birth statistics)
- CBR
- GFR
- Fecundity Rate
- Age Specific Fertility Rate
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
what is the simplest indicator of fertility?
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Birth rate of Egypt is declined recently to ….. (2021), The rate of developed countries is around ……
- 24.47‰
- 13-15‰
CBR is generally high in developing countries (including Egypt) due to ….
- High fertility motives
- Young age of marriage of girls.
Significance of CBR
General Fertility Rate (GFR) =
Accuracy of General Fertility Rate (GFR)
It is more accurate than Crude Birth Rate (using female in the childbearing period rather than total population)
Fecundity Rate =
Age Specific Fertility Rate =
What is the most accurate fertility index?
Age Specific Fertility Rate
Doneeee
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