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MMC2450 > Q5 Surveys > Flashcards

Q5 Surveys Flashcards

1
Q

Two ways that surveys breed skepticism

A
  • Aren’t surveys often wrong?
  • How can a small sample represent an entire nation?
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2
Q

How can a small sample be fine?

A

If the sample is representative and diverse, since size is less important than diversity when it comes to a representative sample

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3
Q

Is a survey different from a poll?

A

To us, surveys and polls are identical because if they’re good then they’re done the same way

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4
Q

Four key principles to lessen interpretation errors

A
  • Surveys are snapshots, not predictions (can only caption a person’s current thinking)
  • Opinions can change
  • A recent, high-profile event can influence survey responses
  • Survey results are in a range, not a point
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5
Q

How are survey results in a range?

A

The percentages given as survey results are the center of the range, and extend + or - however many percentage points in the sampling error

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6
Q

What do presidential polls measure?

A

National preferences, not electoral votes

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7
Q

Why aren’t presidential polls done for each state?

A
  • It’s too expensive
  • We use Electoral College so small states can have more clout than they would have if each person’s vote was counted equally
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8
Q

How to get a higher confidence level

A

The range must be wider

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9
Q

How to get a smaller range

A

Lower the confidence level

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10
Q

Confidence level

A

The expectation that repeated surveys will be within the sampling error

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11
Q

Sampling error

A

The expected variance between a population and a representative sample

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12
Q

If you double the size of a sample of 1,200, and the sampling error is + or - 3 percentage points, what would the new sampling error be?

A
  • Only 1 percentage point higher because of standard deviation
  • Reducing sampling error by 1 percentage point requires a big, expensive increase in sample size
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13
Q

Sample subgroups

A
  • Carry larger error margins
  • A larger sample is needed if a subgroup analysis is important
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14
Q

Questions we should always ask

A
  • Who did the survey?
  • Who paid for the survey?
  • Which survey mode was used?
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15
Q

How can you tell which organizations doing surveys are good?

A
  • Should be transparent about its method and survey details (response rate, why some respondents were removed)
  • Should publicly disclose all details about questions and answers (number of responses, whether it was randomized)
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16
Q

When does the issue of payment surface?

A

Whenever an advocacy group pays for a survey

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17
Q

Does the involvement of an advocacy group automatically invalidate the survey?

A

No, because if it’s done properly, then the survey can still be reliable

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18
Q

How are advocacy groups often selective?

A

Tend to release only results that support their position

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19
Q

How to make sure an advocacy groups’ survey is valid

A

See the entire survey and all the details about the methodology, the questions and answers

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20
Q

Survey modes

A

Written
- Mail
- In person
- Online panel
Interview
- Telephone

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21
Q

Mail survey mode

A

Cheap, but few respond

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22
Q

In-person survey mode

A

Reach is hard to find, and costly

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23
Q

Online panel survey mode

A
  • Efficient, but answers could be insincere and have straightlining
  • Not available to offline people
24
Q

Telephone interview survey mode

A
  • Effective, but hard to get responses
  • Proven to be reliable and likely to elicit more sincere answers
  • Cost is an issue
25
Q

Does written or interview surveys have an advantage for sensitive subjects?

A
  • Written has an advantage because it’s best for subjective subjects
  • People are more candid in writing and more guarded when speaking with a human being
26
Q

Random digit dial

A

Draws a representative sample by dialing phone numbers at random

27
Q

What is the problem with telephone interviews today?

A

Fewer people these days are willing to answer telephone surveys (lower response rate)

28
Q

Response rate

A

The percentage of valid potential respondents who agree to take a survey

29
Q

What is the problem with lower response rate?

A
  • Raises costs because more people must be called to get 1 response
  • Invokes non-response bias
30
Q

Non-response bias

A
  • Occurs when those who choose to respond to a survey differ in a meaningful way from those who decline
  • Potential risk, but not yet an issue
31
Q

Best alternative for telephone surveys

A

Online panels

32
Q

Some organizations offer polls on their websites or social media feeds

A
  • Don’t represent the people who visit the websites, let alone the public
  • Rely on non-representative samples, so they don’t matter
33
Q

How does a valid online panel survey draw a representative sample?

A

Randomly chooses among panelists

34
Q

Types of panels

A
  • Volunteer, opt-in panel
  • Invitation
35
Q

Volunteer panel

A

Most common because it’s the cheapest

36
Q

Invitation panel

A

Better to invite panelists at random by sending letters or dialing phones

37
Q

How are survey panelist participants categorized?

A

By demographics to reflect the population, then assigned at random to different surveys

38
Q

Straightlining

A
  • When respondents speed through a survey without giving sincere answers
  • Greater for opt-in panels and lower for invitation panels
39
Q

What to do if the sample rate is only half the population rate

A

Assign the survey answers from those respondents twice the weight

40
Q

Answers from overrepresented groups

A

Would be given proportionally less weight

41
Q

Weighting

A

Adjusting the value of answers if the sample demographics differ substantially from the population

42
Q

Social desirability bias

A

Tendency to give the “correct” answer to questions involving civic or social responsibility

43
Q

Instead of asking “Do you plan to vote in the upcoming election?” what is better?

A
  • “Identify your polling place”
  • If they name it quickly, its evidence they do vote
  • Does not work in states like FL with voting by mail
44
Q

Pollsters use lists of registered voters to know if they’re likely to vote in the upcoming election

A

Does not remove social desirability bias, but it at least narrows the population by excluding those not registered

45
Q

A slight change in wording in questions

A

Can change results, such as saying “forbid” versus “allow”

46
Q

How does offering a choice in a survey matter?

A
  • We are wired to say yes and want to be agreeable when given a “yes” or “no” question
  • Asking for a preference produces a more valid answer
47
Q

Acquiescence bias

A

A tendency to select a favorable response or agree when in doubt

48
Q

How can different surveys, done properly, produce different results with different question order?

A

Asking other questions before can make people change their opinion on the core question

49
Q

Priming

A
  • When exposure to a stimulus unconsciously influences a response
  • Not neutral!
50
Q

Answer order in writing

A

The first one written will be chosen the most often

51
Q

Answer order spoken

A

The last one spoken will be chosen most often

52
Q

Primacy effect

A
  • A tendency to choose or remember items offered first
  • Advantage seen in written surveys
53
Q

Recency effect

A
  • A tendency to choose or remember items offered last
  • Advantage seen in oral surveys
54
Q

How can a telephone oral survey make sure no one answer choice has an advantage?

A

On the next call, move the last question to be the first, and so forth for the next calls

55
Q

Likert scale

A

A consistent sequence that always begins with Agree option, a Neutral center, and ends with Disagree

56
Q

Closed-ended vs. open-ended answer choices

A

Open-ended answers better reflects true public opinion but cannot make all surveys open-ended because it’s slow and costly

57
Q

Adding in an answer choice saying the respondent “doesn’t know enough”

A
  • When giving the option to admit lacking information, social desirability bias drops out
  • Majority usually chooses it

MMC2450 (12 decks)

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