Q11 Number Abuse Flashcards
How can you be skeptical of a statement that provides a percentage from a survey?
Find the “Whole” in the Portion of a Whole
Confirmation bias
Selecting or interpreting evidence in a way that confirms pre-existing beliegs
Skepticism
- Doubt
- A default to question assertions that merit further examination
- Enables data literacy
- Encourages us to look at claims with fresh eyes
Cynicism
- Disbelief
- A default position that presumes assertions are suspicious
- Can be corrosive/cynical to assume the worst
Cherry-picking
Selecting favorable evidence while ignoring unfavorable but relevant data
When ranking top ten nations with the most diabetes cases, you must
Normalize for population by calculating diabetes cases as a percentage of the population
Rate implies . . .
Population/Normalization
How to normalize for finding if bikes or vehicles are safer?
Calculate fatalities per 100 million miles for each bikes and vehicles
Dubious data
Numbers that appear valid but lack empirical origins
Empiricism
Reliance on rigorous evidence obtained through systematic observation or experiment
Rigorous
Thorough, tested
Evidence
Requires facts and information that truly reflect whatever is being measured
Systematic methods/experiments
At the core of science
Magazines and websites know that . . .
Numbers sell
- Unrounded specific numbers sell better because they convey authenticity and reliability
Fallacy
False reasoning
Gambler’s fallacy
A belief that the past can influence an independent event
Narrative fallacy
A good story beats raw truth or logic
Emilie Durkheim
- Found patterns in suicide rates in European nations correlating with religion
- Lower in nations that were mostly Catholic
- Higher in majority Protestant nations
Durkheim’s reasoning
- Social control
- Catholicism includes a pope and firm hierarchy, which exercises greater control than decentralized Protestantism
Debates against Durkheim
- How he gathered and categorized data
- Scientists confirmed that religion and suicide have no broad link
- Ecological fallacy
Ecological fallacy
Presuming group attributes apply to individuals who belong to that group
Assuming that the male next to you is a sports fan because on average, the typical male is more interested in sports than the typical female
Ecological fallacy
Presuming that someone you know with a high education will wait to marry/not marry at all because on average, people with higher levels of education wait longer to get married than do those with less education
Ecological fallacy
An average cannot be used to . . .
Make inferences about individuals from a group they’re in
Exception fallacy
- Presuming attributes of a few individuals are representative of a group
- The few do not represent the whole
Assuming that someone’s group of friends is ill-mannered because someone you encountered from it was mean to you
Exception fallacy