Population essays Flashcards
Essay plans
Of all the demographic challenges nations face, ageing is the most serious.” To what extent do you agree with this statement?
Intro: increase in the % of the population that is over 65yrs.
To what extent agree – will depend on time & place & persepctive. There are a range of demographic challenges, which are all complex.
1. Challenges ageing - UK & Japan.
2.Opportunities ageing - UK.
3. LIC - challenge - youthful.
4. HIC - Migration & refugees - EU.
Ageing most serious challenge.
Perspective -Britsh & Japanese government would probably argue this and families burdened when a family member has dementia or the young who don’t want higher taxes. UK 20% +65yrs and life expectancy 82yrs.
Japan 28% & 85yrs.
UK = Health care struggling – lack of care homes means 855,000 stuck in hospitals. £669mn bed blocking crisis. 7% of GDP going towards pensions.
Families caring for a member who has dementia at crisis point.
Care homes cost £1,000 a week. Tax rates likely to rise to pay for elderly.
Japan – slowing economy, cost of elderly health care x4 that of other age groups. Pressure on pensions – cost 33% of 2017 budget, and has doubled recently – will be unsustainable in the future. This is thus a serious national problem in HICs.
Opportunities of the elderly.
Perspective of Age Concern ( NGO) & possibly Singapore. Employment opportunities – B&Q – absenteeism went down, more reliable & women feel more confident approaching an older man in the store. Grey pound – SAGA holidays for over 65yrs & mid week dining.
Crime rates fall
Places like Singapore have implemented successful polices…..affordable health care, elderly homes in all areas of city, focus on fitness and well being.
Governments are failing to do enough, as they don’t want to upset the young though taxes or the old through raising the retirement age. If they are willing to tackle the issue there could be some opportunities to counterbalance the cost needed to …
Migration is the greatest challenge.
Other HIC challenges
High number of migrants seeking asylum in Europe 2023. Lampedusa on the brink due to large numbers – Sept 23. 190,000 reached S. Europe & over 133,000 arrived in Italy Jan-Sept 23.
Huge pressure on Italy & Greece – EU had to agree new funding. Dividing communities. Cost 15,000 euros. Pressure on health, education & integration ( language) All at a time when costs of living are high/ Ukraine war…
Is this a greater challenge - regional problem?
Problems in LICs - youthful pop and growth of mega cities.
Not a serious issue in LICs
Places like Nigeria – youthful pop – pressure on education, health, housing & shortage of workers.
40% under 15rs and youth dependency 80.6
They also struggle with rapid urbanisation – Lagos 22mn – Makoko +100,000 – they face threat of eviction, only 10% water and 15 families share a toilet, 10,000 children not in school. Wider lagos – 40% waste not collected, 10% water, traffic jams 2-3hrs, unemployment 10%, 40% informal, crime & area gangs. Huge challenge – possibly not attainable to keep up, but not at a regional scale like migration. Overall, what do you think?
The greatest global demographic challenge is the growth of overpopulated megacities. To what extent do you agree with this statement.
Mega city +10mn people.
Demographic challenges tend to time and place specific & always complex.
1. Mega cities a challenge.
2. Mega cities opportunity.
3. Other challneges - youthful - but can overcome.
4. HIC - ageing or refugees ( see previous plan).
Challenges - Mega City - Lagos & Makoko
LICs – Lagos Nigeria – great challenge.
They also struggle with rapid urbanisation – Lagos 22mn – Makoko +100,000 – they face threat of eviction, only 10% water and 15 families share a toilet, 10,000 children not in school. Wider lagos – 40% waste not collected, 10% water, traffic jams 2-3hrs, unemployment 10%, 40% informal, crime & area gangs. Huge challenge – possibly not attainable to keep up, but not at a regional scale like migration.
Opportunities Mega Cities
Megacities have concentration of population which gives a pool of labour (15mn) - driver of economic growth. 30% of country’s GDP.
Growth of markets – large number of people/workers.
Economies of scale/specialization – businesses can produce goods efficiently.
Focus of social/entertainment facilities – population allows development of theatres,sports ( 26 cinemas in Lagos) Global music destination and Nollywood.
*Cultural diversity – megacities are melting pots of cultures which leads to a vibrant anddiverse cultural environment.
*Higher education and research – megacities host major universities and researchinstitutions.
*Gives tax revenue to the city – use to improve infrastructure
Oil industry nearby, major port, centre of manuacturing, fishing industry & E-Commerce.
Challenge - youthful - but harness demographic dividend.
- LICs – Nigeria youthful – could harness Demographic dividend & possibly to solve – Thailand. Places like Nigeria – youthful pop – pressure on education, health, housing & shortage of workers.
40% under 15rs and youth dependency 80.6
13mn out of school.
Emancipation of women hasn’t really occurred – cultural preference ofr large families and lack of access to family planning. Government lacks political will and hasn’t invested enough in sexual health or addressing job shortages.
Could refer to Thailand and say it is also possible to achieve if you get everyone onboard – 1969 6.5 fertility & by 2019 1.5 children – contraception 16-73%……
For countries experiencing rapid population growth the potential Demographic dividend offers more challenges than opportunities. To what extent do you agree with this statement?
Intro: Definition
The DD is accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country’s BR & DR and the subsequent change in the structure of the population leading to a higher working age population.
1) Opportunities 1st dividend is currently bringing Malaysia.
2) Challenges Malaysia faces harnesses 2nd dividend.
3) Challenges India faces and why it might be a disaster rather than a dividend.
Opportunities 1st dividend is currently bringing Malaysia.
Opportunities Malaysia
Higher eco growth, investment in health & ed and government stability.
1970 GDP $374 2020 GDP $10,100
Exports – 1.76bn to 300bn
Due to demographic restructuring 1970 working 53% and today 70%.
This has lead to eco growth & more taxes which have enabled the government to invest in health & education. There are x10 more doctors and 43% go to university.
Women also participate – 53% work.
Challenges Malaysia faces harnesses 2nd dividend.
Challenges Malaysia
Youth unemployment still high 11% - mismatch of skills – still need to improve education to attain new jobs.
Might not achieve 2nd dividend due to low retirement savings – elderly could become a burden, as people are focusing on the educational cost of their children.
Challenges India faces and why it might be a disaster rather than a dividend.
50% under 26yrs
Consumer spending 2006 – 2019 $500bn to $2trillion
Future should be bright and attract FDI
However: only 20yrs to harness as time bound and only 78% literate and flows of FDI are far to slow due to ‘red tape’.
N/S divide – baby boom in North where only just being educated about family planning. South is starting to age and is 12yrs on average older than North. Still 86,000 babies born a day. Really need to invest in health 6% of GDP and 0.4% contraception as well as education – need women in work place.
The benefits of demographic changes over time are greater than any cost. To what extent to you agree with this statement.
Introduction – define key terms – Demographic change – how population changes over time – briefly refer to DTM and stages go through.
1.LICs – stage 2/3 – challenges/ costs of youthful & burden as well as gender inequality.
2. LICs – stage 3 possibility to harness DD – benefits & gender equality
3. HICs Serious - ageing
4. HICs Opportunities ageing. ( see plans above for paragraph 2-4)
LICs – stage 2/3 – challenges/ costs of youthful & burden as well as gender inequality
Places like Nigeria – youthful pop – pressure on education, health, housing & shortage of workers.
40% under 15rs and youth dependency 80.6
13mn out of school.
Emancipation of women hasn’t really occurred – cultural preference of large families and lack of access to family planning. Government lacks political will and hasn’t invested enough in sexual health or addressing job shortages.
