CC essays

Question 1

The policies to manage national population change are more successful than those used to manage CC. To what extent do you agree?

Answer 1

Range of challenges, which are complex & policies used & success of these depends on the place & the political will. In theory would expect population to be more successful as only delivered at a national scale. CC – includes adaptation and mitigation – adaptation at the smallest scale – tailored to specific place & usually more successful if finance available. Mitigation – COP – global scale & difficult to achieve.
1. Thailand & anti natalist
2. France & Pro natalist
3.Adaptation - range - Sundarbans.
4. Mitigation - COP

Question 2

Successful population policy - Thailand

Answer 2

Power to adapt to population growth shown in Thailand
1969 6.5 fertility & by 2019 1.5 children – contraception 16-73%……
Mr.Condom man – Economist
1.Mothers – ensure everyone has access to contraception – trained shop keeper.
2. Religion – blessed the condoms
3. Education – fun games – educated about sexual health.
4. Vasectomies
5. Military – radios
6. Micro finance schemes – only available to women if using contraception.

Question 3

France - Pro-natalist policy - is it really working?

Answer 3

1939 – Code de la famille – aim to increase fertility rate to just above replacement level. Use incentives ( baby bonus, tax incentives & free subsidized creche), paternity leave..
UN stated not going to reach goals, only 0.6mn increase expected 2030 – 2050. It is costing billions of euros and the govenrment also needs to support an ageing population. Paternity leave is also costing companies as it has been extended to 25 days 7 up to 32 days if multiple children.

Question 4

Adaptation - Sundarbans - BRAC, Goalbari & Mangrove Action Project.

Answer 4

local scale effective – Sundarbans – but is it only in the short term?
UN women & BRAC – 30 rural communities – 19,000 supported & resilience increased. 10yrs boat classrooms – 500 boats & housed 15,000 children.
Goalbari – floating farms outside Dhaka – women’s coop, collecting savings and then providing small loans, can buy assets – livestock & raised housing of 1.2mn.
Mangrove Action project ( US NGO) – works with local NGOs – workshops in 6 rural schools – educates legacy in schools how under threat and why need to protect/benefits. Also encourages and trains how to restore mangroves.

Question 5

Mitigation - Global

Answer 5

Intended national Determined Contributions ( INDCs) not ambitious enough. Leaders can change e.g. Obama & Trump – slips down agenda. No one really held accountable. No country meeting target of 1.5 degrees. Statement of intent. Renewables can’t yet fill the gap & geoengineering expensive

Question 6

The growth of the middle class will inevitably accelerate climate change.

Answer 6

Intro – People with a disposable income – spend on consumer goods & at upper end cars/holidays. Definition varies but can be defined at $10,000+
1. Yes - China -
2. No - cities and govenrments can mitigate.
3.Already accelerated & experiencing positive feedback loops?

Question 7

Yes, Middle Class are accelerating CC.

Answer 7

1 in 5 middle class in China. China – No.1 carbon polluter in 2020, disposable income has increased, more driving cars and meat consumption has gone up 150%. Agriculture large contributor to GHG emissions – deforestation of rainforest for cattle & feed, plus methane ( 120kg per cow per year). 800mn Amazonian trees felled for beef. Manufacturing & factory emissions.

Question 8

No, Middle Class don’t need to accelerate have ability to mitigate.

Answer 8

cities can mitigate – green roofs – Vancouver and green buildings – Milan. Public transport – cycle lanes – Tervuren. More educated and wealthier can afford in green technology. COP conferences, social media & NGOs.
China is also the leader green technology ( solar/wind) – investing the most and x4 that of USA.
UK - 2010 7% renewables and today over 40%. Want to redyce 1990 emissions by 68% by 2030. £1bn set aside for renewables and £500mn on top for offshore wind.

Question 9

Has it already accelerated & Middle Class only adding?

Answer 9

Has it already accelerated & are we not already experiencing positive feedback naturally amplifies – Permafrost, ocean, Amazon. Have we already reached a tipping point?

Question 10

Changes in the global energy balance are primarily the result of natural processes rather than human activity. To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Answer 10

Intro: Global energy balance is the relationship between incoming shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation. The balance has changed over both the long and short term due to events like glacial periods, and the present day enhanced GHE.
1. Natural Processes- short term =volcano - months/years & sun spots - decades, Long term =Milankovitch cycles.
2. Human Processes
3. Feedback loops

Question 11

Natural Process - Short Term

Answer 11

Short term ( months & years) – Volcanic eruptions – 1991 Pinatubo – ash and dust reflected solar radiation. Average temp fell 0.5 for 2 yrs.
Short term ( decades) – Sun spots ( solar flares) where there are more higher temp. Cycle btw low and high activity occurs over 11yrs. Can be longer Mini Ice age – lasted 70yrs – few sun spots – frost fairs on Thames river.

Question 12

Natural Process - Long term

Answer 12

( 10,000-100,000yrs) Milankovitch cycles – changes in the orbit ( orbital forcings). Eccentricity – changes from circular to elliptical, obliquity – tilt changes due to gravitational pull of planets & precession – wobbles slowly- changes axes. Combined together they cause long term changes – glacial periods and interglacial periods.

Question 13

Human Processes

Answer 13

Last 150yrs warmed and C02 has risen exponentially due to humans. 2/3 warming occurred since 1975.
Industrial Revolution – more dependent on fossil fuel energy, globalization & trade, methane x30 more potent than C02 – released from landfills, cows. 25% GHEs from agriculture. Cement 1000kg = 900kg C02 ( 5% of all emissions).

Question 14

Feedback loops

Answer 14

Natural – but have been influenced by humans – albedo & oceans & Permafrost & methane.

Question 15

Conclusion

Answer 15

Natural forcings did cause significant changes in the past resulting in ice ages… but when looking at the hockey stick graph we can see that natural forcings are too weak to explain this recent rise in temperatures.

Question 16

“Climate change will eventually become the main reason for human migration.”
To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Answer 16

Define - migration & climate change
Address command word & subject: To what extent – depends on time & place & there are a range of causes.
1. CC main factor
2. CC factor but generally combination of factors.
3. Conflict often main factor.
Conclusion – generally many factors contribute to human migration, and main factor will change with time and place – things may change in future if reach tipping points

Question 17

CC major cause of migration.

Answer 17

UN est 10mn people from Africa, S. Asia and elsewhere have migrated or been displaced by environmental degradation, weather related disasters & desertification in the last 20yrs.
UN predicts a further 150mn people may have to move in the next 50 years and has identified 28 countries at extreme risk from CC. Of these, 22 are in Africa.
Dozens of islands in the Indian Sundarbans region are being regularly flooded.
The Maldives is at threat from rising sea levels.
Bangladesh is the most vulnerable large country, with 60% of its land less than 5m above sea level.
Red Cross estimated 400 weather related disasters annually result in forced migration.

Question 18

CC causing migration in Bangladesh - facts

Answer 18

Last 10yrs 700,000 Bangladeshis were displaced on average each year & number spikes in yrs with large cyclones, like 2009’s Cyclone Aila, which displaced millions of people and killed more than 200.
No. of Bangladeshis displaced by impacts of CC could reach 13.3 million by 2050,

Question 19

CC isn’t the only cause of migration - normally a combination of factors which cause people to move.

Answer 19

N.Nigeria - edge Sahel - more frequent droughts, desertification spreading & unreliable rains, but also Boko Haram ( 2020 300 students abducted) & bandits.
Plus 2012 floods forced 7mn to move. In ottal has 2.5mn IDPs.
Eritrea - arid nation - more frequent droughts (2016 - famine), desertification…but also forced military service, restrictions on movement speech & no freedom of press.

Question 20

“The impacts on migration and health are likely to be the more destabilising consequences of global climate change” Discuss the extent to which you agree with this statement .

Answer 20

Introduction - Define key terms: migration, health & climate change
Uncertainty in the future if reach 1.5 or 2 degrees above industrial – tipping points….
CC affects water and food….
Address command word & subject: To what extent – depends on time & place & there are a range of causes.
Outline main factors that will structure essay – will investigate the scale affected by these two factors –1. Health national & global 2. Migration - national & regional 3. cannot ignore water/food - combination.

Question 21

Major reason currently - conflict.

Answer 21

Living in a multi polar world, which is more unstable - Currenlty major conflicts raging around the world - Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan ( over 8mn displaced), Haiti, Ethiopia..
Ukraine - 14mn people forced to migrate in 1st 3months of conflict (30% of population). It is though 80% of Palestinians are internall displaced.

Question 22

Migration - huge impact nationally

Answer 22

Impacts can be seen at a National scale – causing strain on urban centres like Dhaka.
Last 10yrs 700,000 Bangladeshis were displaced on average each year & number spikes in yrs with large cyclones, like 2009’s Cyclone Aila, which displaced millions of people and killed more than 200.
No. of Bangladeshis displaced by impacts of CC could reach 13.3 million by 2050.
Dozens of islands in Sundarbans regularly flood and suffer from salt water intrusion.
Dhaka 22mn & growing 3% a year. Many live in slums (2mn) and work in informal sector e.g. Rickshaw riders 500,000 & many recycle waste on dumps in the city.
Pollution ( traffic, health impacts & conflict/violence over lack . A lot of violence directed towards women.
Lack of resources & poverty - Water lorries cannot meet the needs in Dhaka – acute shortages of water.

Question 23

Migration huge impact - regionally

Answer 23

But can also be seen on a larger scale - We are already seeing massive numbers of economic migrants escaping regions in Sub-Saharan Africa, many of whom are looking for a better life, but in reality are fleeing poverty rought on by competition for resources and environmental stress. Climate change is only likely to exacerbate this, further destabilising and over stretching services in urban centres in the region – regional scale – EU - 190,000 reached S. Europe & over 133,000 arrived in Italy Jan-Sept 23. Huge pressure on Italy & Greece – EU had to agree new funding. Dividing communities

Question 24

Health implications

Answer 24

wide range of health impacts – vector borne diseases – Malaria to spread
HICs can’t escape the impacts – only need to look at Europe heatwave 2003 – 35,000 died.….national impacts – Zika possibly UK 240 and Dengue by 2050.
Health tends to be destabilising at a national level & even global level in the future whereas migration can have huge regional impacts – EU..

Question 25

Not only migration & health but a combination of factors inlcuding water stress & food insecurity

Answer 25

Droughts in Sahel or retreating glaciers in Mountainous regions, loss of land due to rising sea levels = soil erosion and impact on water supply. The knock on effect impacts on health..economy.. and also migration – Nigeria…with many moving to Europe – wider regional impact..Brexit and rising nationalism – destabilising impacts.

Question 26

“Adaptation at a range of scales is more important than mitigation in the management of climate change” To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Answer 26

Define - adaptation & mitigation.
Complex - depends on time and place.
the “importance” of adaptation may depend on the nation in question due to differing levels of for example: exposure to risk and vulnerability to climate change. In addition countries may not require greater focus on mitigation due to their lack of development and level of current emissions

Question 27

Adaptation most important - Sudarbans & Arctic

Answer 27

Sundarbans – adaptation important – exposed to risk —-rising sea levels, loss of land, more frequent cyclones e.g. Alia & vulnerability – poverty, relying on land. Adaptation also important for Artic region – exposure & vulnerability. Anthrax outbreaks as ice melts. Spending more time in pastures so more isolated. Many indigenous abandoning traditional way of life as hunting..difficult - muskrat pop depleted as ice melts. Heavily connected to env - hard understand how survive without ice. Both regions have low emissions levels due to levels of wealth…..mitigation not important.

Question 28

Mitigation important

Answer 28

Mitigation is highly important in HICs & EEs – trade & development in USA, China, Brazil – high emission levels. They also have a moral responsibility as they have developed on the back of fossil fuels…if don’t reduce emissions – tipping points…future more may need to adapt. China 2020 - emitted 12.3bn tonnes of GHG emissions.

Question 29

Adaptation important in HICs

Answer 29

Adaptation is equally as important as mitigation in parts of HIcs – London & Thames Barrier, Netherlands & their flood defences, Australia and water lawns at night due to water shortages – Murray Darling Basin and Forest Fires… Denmark & Sponge cities – reduce flooding.

Question 30

“Adaptation is more important than mitigation in terms of geopolitical
efforts to cope with global climate change” Discuss the extent to which you agree with this statement “

Answer 30

Define adaptation & mitigation & CC & geopolitical efforts. To what extent – depends on time & place & there are a range of consequences. Both have been emphasised at UN COP conferences.

Question 31

Adaptation important at COP Conferences

Answer 31

Adaptation important – COP21, Paris - countries pledged to raise from the public-private purse by 2020, $100 billion each year for the Green Climate Fund. This fund is earmarked for projects and schemes linked to adaptation to climate change. Acknowledge need to adapt – issues ..debt & finance not enough. Rich nations are undermining work to protect poor and vulnerable countries from the impacts of the climate crisis, by providing loans instead of grants, siphoning off money from other aid projects or mislabelling cash, new research suggests. Only $11.5bn (£9.2bn) of climate finance from rich countries in 2020 was devoted to helping poor countries adapt to extreme weather, despite increasing incidences of climate-related disaster, according to a report from the charity Oxfam.
At COP26 pledged to contribute further $500bn by 2025.
Improvements were made at COP28 in Dubai 2023, A loss and damage fund was agreed – help deal with impacts & adapt. The UAE immediately pledged $100m to the fund, and was followed by contributions from the EU, led by Germany, the UK, the US and Japan, though the US in particular were criticised for their relatively modest pledge.

Question 32

Adaptation vital to many nations

Answer 32

2. The above improvements are needed – expand upon issues in Sundarbans, Arctic,….. and management being installed in Nationally – what doing in Sundarbans & elsewhere – Mangroves afforestation…, floating farms…, floating hospitals. This might not be possibly for everyone, with some having to abandon their homeland – Kiribati, Vanatu.. Thus that mitigation is also very important.

Question 33

Mitigation important - geopolitically - globally & nationally

Answer 33

3. COP21 – agreed to keep under 2 degrees and if possible 1.5 degrees. Set INDCs – EU to cut 40% on 1990 levels by 2030 & UK 80% by 2050. Currently looking at Climate Action Tracker no country in the world is compatible with 1.5 degrees.
   With only 6 countries almost sufficient, including Norway & Morocco. Uncertain whether targets will be met, especially as many argue language at COP 28 too soft ‘transition away from fossil fuels’.

To achieve this the EU has its Carbon cap trading scheme which ………

A 2nd scheme that could support mitigation is Afforestation – WB – Mexico….

Question 34

Conclusion

Answer 34

In conclusion, both adaptation and mitigation are of critical importance for geopolitical efforts to cope with the effect of climate change. Adaptation deals with the consequences, which are inevitable. How severe these effects on humanity are in reality, depend almost entirely on our efforts to mitigate.

Question 35

Vulnerability to climate change varies globally.

Answer 35

Vulnerability - Refers to the degree to which people are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse impacts of climate change.
Factors affecting vulnerability:
 Exposure – degree to which people are exposed to climate change.
 Sensitivity – degree to which they could be harmed by exposure to CC.
 Adaptive capacity - degree to which they could mitigate the potential harm by taking action to reduce their exposure or sensitivity.

Question 36

Exposure

Answer 36

Exposure – Some places are already more exposed to the risks. Places like low lying Pacific islands, the Maldives and the Sundarbans are already facing rising sea levels, salt intrusion and the loss of land. Places that previously suffered from Cyclones may face stronger ones in the future, as the ocean warms, fuelling larger storms. Regions like Sub-Saharan Africa which already suffered from unreliable rainfalls & droughts …Haiti – Hurricane Sandy 2012 – already vulnerable after 2010 earthquake.

Question 37

x2 Sensitivity - Social & Economic

Answer 37

• Sensitivity - reliance on climate-sensitive economic activities, such as agriculture or fishing – Sundarbans & Arctic - seasonal hunting for narwhals & seals. Sea ice is breaking and thus they are losing safe access to traditional hunting grounds for large parts of the year. In future there will be no access at all. Muskrat population has declines, losing safe dog sledding routes in may parts.
  Rely heavily on physical environment – Indigenous in Arctic
• This is an extreme form of vulnerability: Inuit culture and the physical environment are so highly interconnected that it is hard to imagine how communities will survive in any recognizable way if the ice does not exist.
  Level of development of a country: this affects health, education levels, wealth and infrastructure
• wealth: people and nations with greater money are more able to prepare for the risk by putting adaptive strategies in place and repairing the damage of extreme events. – Netherlands – compared to Bangladesh. 50% live in poverty in the Sundarbans.
• health: if baseline health is good then people are more able to overcome some of the impacts of extreme events, such as the spread of disease. Yamal peninsula – Nenets - reindeer herders away for longer in pasture. No medical care. Anthrax being released from melting ice.
• education: an educated population is more likely to be prepared, with the necessary strategies in place to cope; for example, houses on stilts in flood areas. Living in slums on a slope. Many illiterates in Sundarbans. Haiti had deforested slopes = landslides & soil erosion, when heavy rains arrive.
• Gender & age

Question 38

Adaptive Capacity

Answer 38

Developing countries are more exposed to the risks of climate change. They don’t have the resources to prepare or manage extreme hazards, like hurricanes. Richer countries can build large sea walls that protect cities from floods. In some places the poorest places are more exposed to risks. One example of this was New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. The poorest, African-American communities were most exposed because they lived in the low-lying parts of the city and couldn’t afford or saw no reason to evacuate.
Could compare – strategies used in the Netherlands to those used in the Sundarban